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How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

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How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

  • Total voters
  • Poll closed .
Only crash in the Giro was before Oropa, very light one. No injuries, no illness. Good weather, until it was time to cancel Stelvio/Umbrail. The whole Giro was done in complete control, no problems for the team after stage 1. Best case scenario.

We'll know more about the opposition after Dauphiné. For now, I'm at ~60 %.
I think it entirely depends on Vingegaard's form. I know next to nothing about injury recovery (beyond it looking pretty bad for Vingegaard) so I don't feel I can make a proper judgment until the Tour.

Roughly speaking, though, I'd say if Vingegaard is in Tour 2023 form or better then I'd give Pogacar a 30% chance. If Vingegaard is in Tirreno form at the start but then improves, 65%; if Vingo in bad form then like 80%. I don't think, even with the Giro in his legs, Roglic and Evenepoel can beat Pogacar without an unexpected hiccup.
People are underestimate Roglic. He is very very good and if he stays on his bike, he can beat a 90% Pogacar. Pogacar needs to bring his A game this Tour and I don't know if he will do it, I keep remind some people, he never rode 2 GT's in one year so something can still go wrong.
He can beat a 90% Teddy “if he stays on his bike.”

Part of the problem is that by my calculations, there’s only a 27% chance of Roglic completing a GT without falling off at some point.
Roglic is a very good one week racer, but his grand tour wins don't stack up too well when we are talking about trying to beat Pog 2.0.
He beat a old man GT by seconds last time, and his biggest scalp was Carapaz and Carthy in one vuelta (who had him in the ropes) and a pensioner and a baby in the other.
His only big win was against Enric Mas for f's sake.