How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

[Red Rick]

Where do the odds start though, have to start at something right

Very often one or two bookies set a starting line, but what they so is the betting limits start very low

 

[Taxus4a]

I think is very likely. There is not a big competence at the Giro, it is not going to be a problem for le Tour...and Vingegaard maybe wont be at le Tour, or not at his best. He can fail but it is one of the best scenario for him to get that. It would be a big succes just to win one of them.

 

[Gigs_98]

I would think the bookies are smart enough to already take that into account.

That wasn't my point. My point was that this is not taken into account when you look at the separate odds for Giro and Tour, which is what people did to compute the odds for the double.

 

[Nick2413]

Completed the “easy” part. Now what are the odds?

 

[Extinction]

Completed the “easy” part. Now what are the odds?

1:1

 

[Red Rick]

Completed the “easy” part. Now what are the odds?

I'm feeling like saying 85% is a conservative estimate.

 

[Netserk]

Only crash in the Giro was before Oropa, very light one. No injuries, no illness. Good weather, until it was time to cancel Stelvio/Umbrail. The whole Giro was done in complete control, no problems for the team after stage 1. Best case scenario.

We'll know more about the opposition after Dauphiné. For now, I'm at ~60 %.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah the Giro went about as well as he could have imagined. Would probably change my vote from 50-60% to 60-70% right now.

 

[Nick2413]

I’m around 60%. Still too many unknowns but crash/illness could well be the biggest opponent.

 

[Berniece]

I’m still at 30-40%, I don’t believe he won’t feel the impact of the Giro during the Tour

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Before the Giro I rated the Tour at 40%. Let's up this to 50%, the Giro was perfect without any hiccups and he didn't look too tired.

 

[movingtarget]

70% Pogacar does the double. Never easy but interrupted preps for Roglic and Vingegaard will help.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Identifying what odds one would accept a bet at (which is essentially what we are doing here) when half the conditions for the accumulator have been met is surely grounds for a Gambling Commission investigation.

 

[perico]

If Jonas isn’t on form then I’m at 95%. If Jonas pulls a miracle and shows up in last years form then 10%.

 

[Cookster15]

70% Pogacar does the double. Never easy but interrupted preps for Roglic and Vingegaard will help.

Roglic’s interruption was minor. Vingegaard’s interruption was massive. I will be surprised he rides the tour let alone be anything close to his 2023 TdF level.

 

[Brullnux]

I think it entirely depends on Vingegaard's form. I know next to nothing about injury recovery (beyond it looking pretty bad for Vingegaard) so I don't feel I can make a proper judgment until the Tour.

Roughly speaking, though, I'd say if Vingegaard is in Tour 2023 form or better then I'd give Pogacar a 30% chance. If Vingegaard is in Tirreno form at the start but then improves, 65%; if Vingo in bad form then like 80%. I don't think, even with the Giro in his legs, Roglic and Evenepoel can beat Pogacar without an unexpected hiccup.

 

[Peyroteo94]

People are underestimate Roglic. He is very very good and if he stays on his bike, he can beat a 90% Pogacar. Pogacar needs to bring his A game this Tour and I don't know if he will do it, I keep remind some people, he never rode 2 GT's in one year so something can still go wrong.

 

[solo80k]

Froome but he finished the 2nd Tour as 3rd.

2018 Tour - 1st
2018 Vuelta - 1st
2019 Grio - 1st
2019 Tour - 3rd

Froome really lacked competition in these years TBH, but Giro ambush was phenomenal... Pogacar definitely approves such aggressive style with 80k solo.

 

[perico]

People are underestimate Roglic. He is very very good and if he stays on his bike, he can beat a 90% Pogacar. Pogacar needs to bring his A game this Tour and I don't know if he will do it, I keep remind some people, he never rode 2 GT's in one year so something can still go wrong.

He can beat a 90% Teddy “if he stays on his bike.”

Part of the problem is that by my calculations, there’s only a 27% chance of Roglic completing a GT without falling off at some point.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

He can beat a 90% Teddy “if he stays on his bike.”

Part of the problem is that by my calculations, there’s only a 27% chance of Roglic completing a GT without falling off at some point.

Your calculations are a bit off, I think it's closer to 24,3%. You didn't properly account for moronic fans taking selfies along the roads infront of the riders. Easy mistake to make.

 

[BigCoward]

Roglic is a very good one week racer, but his grand tour wins don't stack up too well when we are talking about trying to beat Pog 2.0.
He beat a old man GT by seconds last time, and his biggest scalp was Carapaz and Carthy in one vuelta (who had him in the ropes) and a pensioner and a baby in the other.
His only big win was against Enric Mas for f's sake.

 

[Valv.Piti]

75%