How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

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How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

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N

Nick2413

Dec 2, 2020
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(.9 Giro) x (.7 Tour) x (.60 chance no crashes/illness) = 37.8% chance to win the double.

My assumption is based on Vingegaard not being at 100% if he races at all, and Remco/Roglic being close to normal.
 
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Unterlenkerfahrend

Unterlenkerfahrend

Jun 11, 2021
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I'd say around 30%. Ability wise it's probably about 50% but with two GTs back to back you always have to factor crashes and illnesses which pushes its down a bit.

This is obviously based around the assumption that Vingegaard won't do the Tour or won't be in semi-decent shape at all.
 
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Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
13,820
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How did everyone in the other thread say "yes" but now there are currently more people saying his chances are less or equal 50%?
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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75% ish and if you ask me to pick an over/under on that number I'll go higher.

I think you have to break it down into loss conditions and for me there are no loss conditions based on pure strength or team strength even if he's slightly worse at the Tour than he would without a Giro. Then we're talking about crashes et al. and Pogacar crashes very little and nobody really fights him hard for position and his team is always in front of the peloton and all that, so I think random events are much less likely then you'd normally assume as well.

To me it just looks like people are projecting the logic of Contador and Froome Giro/Tour doubles on Pogacar, which is ignoring about 5 million data points in recent years that the common logic of 2000s and 2010s cycling is merely a joke to Pogacar.

It's weird how most don't question that he'll 99% guaranteed will win with Redoute attack today yet keep underestimating him in other areas.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Gigs_98 said:
How did everyone in the other thread say "yes" but now there are currently more people saying his chances are less or equal 50%?
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Because you asked if he could do it.

Even if no rider is more than 50 % likely to win a race, that doesn't mean that no rider can win it.
 
H

hayneplane

Sep 4, 2017
3,527
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70%. Only crash or illness can stop him winning the Giro with plenty to spare. So 95% chance of winning Giro and about 70% chance of winning the Tour as there is no rival going into the race with ideal preparation.

I think he will win the double and very much hope he does.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Red Rick said:
75% ish and if you ask me to pick an over/under on that number I'll go higher.

I think you have to break it down into loss conditions and for me there are no loss conditions based on pure strength or team strength even if he's slightly worse at the Tour than he would without a Giro. Then we're talking about crashes et al. and Pogacar crashes very little and nobody really fights him hard for position and his team is always in front of the peloton and all that, so I think random events are much less likely then you'd normally assume as well.

To me it just looks like people are projecting the logic of Contador and Froome Giro/Tour doubles on Pogacar, which is ignoring about 5 million data points in recent years that the common logic of 2000s and 2010s cycling is merely a joke to Pogacar.

It's weird how most don't question that he'll 99% guaranteed will win with Redoute attack today yet keep underestimating him in other areas.
Click to expand...
I'm not as bullish as you that he is certain to be the strongest rider in the Tour. As backloaded as it is, I think there's a fair risk that he has a bad day or two in the last weak, worse than he was on Marie Blanque.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
53,919
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Netserk said:
I'm not as bullish as you that he is certain to be the strongest rider in the Tour. As backloaded as it is, I think there's a fair risk that he has a bad day or two in the last weak, worse than he was on Marie Blanque.
Click to expand...
Problem is the Tour route is really easy for him so recovery shouldn't be an issue. There's effectively 4 big mountain stages, and all are gonna be about the MTF basically, and if Jumbo don't bring Vingegaard nobody is gonna go crazy about putting the TSS in. Roglic isn't gonna drop mano a mano I don't think, and if they're equals I don't question Rogla's magical TdF bottle factor.

But I guess the main speculation would be why Pogacar sucked early in the Tour last year and why he hasn't bothered with the Vuelta after the Tour. And I think the answer for the latter is mostly the super heavy spring schedule he's done in 2021-2023, in combination with the WC and Olympics that came right after in 2 of 3 years.
 
scribers

scribers

Oct 30, 2023
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This makes me want to start two 'Should pogacar win the double this season?" threads. Lots of interesting directions these could go!
 
P

ppanther92

May 3, 2015
4,833
4,404
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90% for Giro, 50% for the Tour (due to recent developments way higher than initially thought), ergo 45%
 
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