How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

[Netserk]

Pogi can afford multiple mechanicals and still win the Giro. He could probably dislocate his shoulder and still win

What kind of injury would it need to be before he pulls out and focuses on the Tour, if it's in the first half of the race?

 

[ppanther92]

People are overestimating his chance to win such a historic double.

Let's say he has a 70% chance to win the Giro and a 30% chance to win the Tour. That would mean he has a 21% chance to win both.

I agree that people underestimate the power of multiplicating effect of probability over multiple events.
But your probabilities also seem low. I had 90% and 50% in my post, which probably also is off (first too high since over three weeks always crashes and illness can happen) but out of interest I looked at bookies odds (Bet365). They give him: 81.97% for the Giro, 69.44% for the Tour, giving 56.9%. So actually higher than my 45% estimate even.

 

[Cookster15]

Nobody has succeeded since1998 for a reason, it is very difficult. I think he wins the Giro comfortably (procided he stays on his bike) - the tour is a different ball game against fresh remco and roglic and possibly Vignegaard (albeit his prep would inevitably have been hampered).

I think there is about 25%-30% chance.

The last serious attempt was Contador 2011. The 2011 Giro was a monster parcours and Astana attacked Contador for three weeks. I also don't think Contador was ever as strong as what we are seeing from Pogacar now. This year the Giro course is way less demanding (on paper) and hard to see who might have the confidence to attack UAE at the Giro this year. UAE are as strong as ever. I think the peloton is shell shocked. So I think Pog will come into the TdF way less drained than Contador was in 2011.

If Vingegaard was healthy Pogacar's chances at the TdF are remote. But I would put Vingegaard's threat to be in shape for the TdF at 10% based upon what I am reading about his injuries.

For Remco you can use today's time on Cote de La Redoute as a gauge of their relative power. Someone posted that Pogacar was 14 sec faster than Remco last year - into a headwind. If this is true, I doubt Remco could have held his wheel today. That doesn't bode well for his chances to hold Pog's wheel in the mountains of the TdF.

 

[Cookster15]

I agree that people underestimate the power of multiplicating effect of probability over multiple events.
But your probabilities also seem low. I had 90% and 50% in my post, which probably also is off (first too high since over three weeks always crashes and illness can happen) but out of interest I looked at bookies odds (Bet365). They give him: 81.97% for the Giro, 69.44% for the Tour, giving 56.9%. So actually higher than my 45% estimate even.

I'd say 90% and 75%. That gives 67.5%. I rated his chances at 60-70%

 

[Peyroteo94]

UAE's team to the Giro is very strong in hilly and flat stages but in the high mountains they will suffer to support Pogi if the race goes fast

 

[Gigs_98]

This was not meant as a smartass version, but to have an actually meaningful poll.

I still think it would make sense if the mods could merge them. The second thread has no seperate purpose.

On the question, my gut feeling I think it's just slightly over 50% but I don't think it will be easy. I'm still not convinced Vingegaard won't be there and in pretty decent shape and I don't think it's guaranteed that Pogacar with the giro in his legs can easily drop Roglic (and for what it's worth Evenepoel if he nails his prep). I mean it's not quite the same situation but I tend to think that Roglic was stronger than Vingegaard in last years Vuelta. The drop off in shape from giro to tour has often been pretty significant and I don't see why that shouldn't happen to Pog. I don't think he is legendarily great at recovering and his shape towards the end of the season is usually a lot less dominant than at the beginning.

Like, I also wouldn't be shocked if he wins the tour by 5 minutes but I think it's not at all clear how this will go.

 

[Escarabajo]

I'd say 90% and 75%. That gives 67.5%. I rated his chances at 60-70%

Your numbers are only performance based. Maybe the thread question should be clearer and state the following: "Barring any crash or force majeure, how likely is Pogacar to do and win the double?" It cannot be more than 60%. Just cannot.

 

[Escarabajo]

If he doesn't crash it's almost 100%. We've seen how dominant he has been in Strade/Catalunya/LBL, there is no way that, so long as he doesn't crash, anyone on that Giro start list comes close to him

The only 2 riders who have a chance of staying close to him in the mountains are Vingegaard and Roglic. Just look at the last 2 years and how far ahead they were of the field. Vingegaard is injured and I can't see him winning it. Roglic is not in the best form this year, plus it seems unlikely he will drop Pogi even if he can outsprint him on a good day.

Evenepoel is overrated, may gain some time in the TTs but he will get dropped early on multiple mountain stages. I know he lost time to others on Granon and Loze but Granon was down largely to tactics (he still would have been dropped by Vingo but it must be tactics to Bardet and Quintana etc) and Loze was because he had poor prep and partly as knew he had lost. But every time Vingo and Pogi attacked they would just take a minute on the field in no time. Usual laws about he might have a bad day blah blah blah don't apply. All this 10% chance even if he stays upright then he still might lose doesn't apply to Pogi, certainly in the Giro field

The question is, how likely is he to crash? Now, crashes are frequent in cycling as we all know and so I reckon he is about 75% to win the double

Close to 100% to win the double? That's just not how probabilities work.

 

[Red Rick]

The betting odds have him as 77-83 % for the Giro and 50-70 % for the Tour.

That's assuming odds are sharp. That's a big assumption.

Basically, barring a catastrophic event, Pogacar has the Giro locked up. It's not 80%, it's 100% minus the chance he crashes out, and Pogacar almost never crashes out of a race.

We get more uncertainty from the Tour, and I guess the biggest question is where we should pull data from, but to me it doesn't seem very reliable to pull data from Giro/Tour doubles from an era that's gone by faster than many care to admit.

 

[YavorD]

UAE's team to the Giro is very strong in hilly and flat stages but in the high mountains they will suffer to support Pogi if the race goes fast

It's not like the other teams are really strong
Ineos might have Foss, Arensman and Thomas.
Visma? Valter, Bouwman, Blobloblo, Dechatlon are going with Pairet-Peintre's and O'Connor.
Bahrain, and they loo like the strongest team on paper are going with Caruso, Tiberi, Poels and Traeen.

It's not like we have some insanely strong team for the Giro and the battle for the podium would probably prevent any serious attempt for a long range.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Disregarding some of the stats fundamentals, I'm going with the 70-80% bracket.

 

[sam6]

Close to 100% to win the double? That's just not how probabilities work.

If he doesn't crash

I said 75%

 

[topcat]

Where is the MVDP option in the poll?
40% (a bare pass)

 

[42x16ss]

The main questions are is Pogacar is coming into the Giro too hot, and can the other Giro contenders make Pogacar work hard enough for him to not fire at the TdF

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't support those bold claims regarding Pog storming to Giro-Tour double. He's never tried the double before and was always gassed after the Tour giving up on Vuelta attempts a couple of times. I'm not convinced he's that good at post-GT recovery. Sure, this double has been carefully planned since last autumn plus the Giro should be way easier for him than recent TdF battles but will it be enough for him to reach the level required to win the Tour?

Giro: 80%

Sporting-wise Pogacar is almost guaranteed Giro winner but we have to consider external factors like a crash or an illness. Hence I can't give him more than 80%.

Tour: 40%

I'm assuming here that Vingo is more likely than not to miss the Tour (or be significantly below his top level). If Vingo is somehow back to 100% or nearly 100% then Pog's (and everyone's) chances would be much smaller. Why only 40% then? I think Pog would be noticeably below his best, at least on selected days. Giro will take its toll. In this case I definitely see Roglic as a co-favourite here - this could be Primoz best chance to win the Tour. Evenepoel is also a contender (his chances grew due to Vingo's crash and Pog's double attempt) but I rate him below Pog & Rog here.

Total double probability: 32%

 

[Roku]

Giro is a given barring crashes / illnesses. The only thing that bothers me a bit is his support, but he is so ahead of their competitors that a limited support should not be an issue.

TdF without Vingo hinges mainly on his recovery. An under the weather Pogi could be vulnerable to super-teams like Bora and Visma. If he is on a decent level, he should be able to take it as well.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Why not add other layers of cumulative probabilities: The Olympics August 3 in France and the World Championships September 29 in Zurich.

Giro: 90%
Tour: 90%
OC: 89%
WC: 88%

FX(x)=P(X≤x), for all x∈R. Then follows: FX = 99%

 

[topcat]

Why not add probabilities of getting *** sick of watching cycling?

 

[Anderis]

The last serious attempt was Contador 2011.

Froome and Dumoulin both made double podium in 2018.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I think Pog has a great chance to do the double of Giro /Tour probably his best chance ever but it does not depend on the Tour imo but in how the Giro is raced

What he needs is to establish a big gap in the first week of the Giro and then sit back and leave it to his team to control with the others fighting for the podium..just to ride around in the peloton

At the Tour he needs to have time in the tank before the final week and then he needs to have a great final week . He doesnt have to beat Vinge every climb ..just stay within seconds of him if he puts time into him in the first 2 weeks

It will be a battle for Pog to ride like this as he is used of attacking and going all in but to win both he will need to ride conservatively at times..can he do this ?

 

[Froome]

Why not add probabilities of getting *** sick of watching cycling?

Maybe i will start to be sick of watching cycling uf the Top riders for some reason never face each other.

We don't need sky era back. This era is awesome if we get the top riders together.

If i was the president of UCI i would make a law where the top 10 riders of the ranking UCI after the end of a season are OBLIGED to do at least in next season 3 monuments and 2 Grand Tours.

Then, with this "law" you will get (without crashes or bad luck)" Roglic, Vingegaard and Remco against Pogacar on LBL, and the race will not be boring, because we will not know who will win.

 

[Potomac]

If I was wagering, or an odds maker I would take a more calculating approach, but chose the 90-100% option.
If Pog avoids illness and and injury he will win both.

The only threat is GC Septimus Kuss.

 

[Alien Performance]

New poll suggestion - how much will Tadej's combined GC lead be over 2nd when he completes the double?

My guess is 7 mins - 4 mins 30s in the Giro and 2 mins 30s in the Tour

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Very likely to win the giro, quite likely to win the tour (Vingegaard seems unlikely to be able to participate/be in top shape)
The issue here for me is mainly what fuckery can happen over 40 something race days and the period in between the races. A case of covid on june the 7th can *** up his tour prep completely etc. etc.

 

[hfgon1]

If Vingegaard isnt ready for Le Tour, I think that only injuries, illness or crashes can stop Pogacar from winning the double. I dont think that Thomas, Remco or Roglic are strong enough to beat him even if he is only at 95%.

You could think that Pogacar lacks experience in riding two Grand Tours but I dont think that this will be a problem. Being in top shape to season highlights didnt ever seem like a problem for him.