We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*This forum isn't ready for Geriant Thomas dropping him on some of the higher altitude Giro stages like he did on Col Du Granon
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We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*This forum isn't ready for Geriant Thomas dropping him on some of the higher altitude Giro stages like he did on Col Du Granon
That's a 12 month period. The Calendar year starts at 1/1Froome but he finished the 2nd Tour as 3rd.
2018 Tour - 1st
2018 Vuelta - 1st
2019 Grio - 1st
2019 Tour - 3rd
Libertine in particular I worry for if that ever happens.We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*
Water bottle, Police mc, random crash in the middle of the road or changing gear while sprinting for the win at a MTF?We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*
As long as his team says he's not going to be there, why not?Are you seriously qualifying Vingo's participation for the tour this year?
It's hard to say what he would have been able to do if he hadn't raced in such a way to prevent a particular teammate from winning the race.We saw Vingegaard 'not at 100%' in a GT recently, aka the first week or so of the Vuelta last year.
Tadej Pogačar with his usual form would put time into that Vingegaard, no question in my mind.
This was not meant as a smartass version, but to have an actually meaningful poll.Also can we merge this one with the orignial thread? We don't really need the smartass version in addition to the normal one...
The betting odds have him as 77-83 % for the Giro and 50-70 % for the Tour.People are overestimating his chance to win such a historic double.
Let's say he has a 70% chance to win the Giro and a 30% chance to win the Tour. That would mean he has a 21% chance to win both.
I havent been this confused since grade school finals examsToo many numbers in this poll.
I might start drinking againThis forum isn't ready for Geriant Thomas dropping him on some of the higher altitude Giro stages like he did on Col Du Granon
I think that's too optimistic for the Tour. Even without crashes etc. he might be tired after the Giro, a bit like Contador when he tried the double. He can't be in top shape all year.The betting odds have him as 77-83 % for the Giro and 50-70 % for the Tour.
That's why he hasn't raced so much.I think that's too optimistic for the Tour. Even without crashes etc. he might be tired after the Giro, a bit like Contador when he tried the double. He can't be in top shape all year.
Some of those finished but had crashed or mechanicals that greatly hurt their performance, though. Hindley in the Tour for example. Contador had many a Tour impacted by a crash that didn’t prevent him from winning. So I think about about it more as odds of finishing the Giro without mishap x odds of finishing the Tour without mishap and get to a lower figure. 75% x 75% gets you to 56%, without getting into competition, accumulated fatigue, etc. Because the competition appears favorable at this time, I give him ~50% odds.In terms of the chance of crashing, last year 150/176 riders finished the Tour. The Giro/Vuelta will be less because you will have a load of sprinters who can't be bothered, and so to get the chance of him finishing a GT looking at the Tour is best. The year before it was 134/176. 2022 was 141/184. 2021 146/184. So in total that is 79% of riders finish. Because some of those are as they OTL, let's say there is almost 90% chance that Pogi finishes each GT which means there is about 80% chance he finishes both. So I'd say about 75% chance he wins both
Pogi can afford multiple mechanicals and still win the Giro. He could probably dislocate his shoulder and still winSome of those finished but had crashed or mechanicals that greatly hurt their performance, though. Hindley in the Tour for example. Contador had many a Tour impacted by a crash that didn’t prevent him from winning. So I think about about it more as odds of finishing the Giro without mishap x odds of finishing the Tour without mishap and get to a lower figure. 75% x 75% gets you to 56%, without getting into competition, accumulated fatigue, etc. Because the competition appears favorable at this time, I give him ~50% odds.