How many Tour de France would have Armstrong won ?

[sniper]

Re: Re:

If they were all clean would the attrition rate not be the same but the times just a whole lot slower? Just asking.

so slow they'd lack time to recover in between the stages and thus inevitably would get sick or become so weak they'd have to abandon.

 

[hrotha]

I suppose he'd cheat plenty on his SO with the podium girls if they resembled his mother, but no amount of standard cheating is going to make up for coming in thirty-somethingth in every mountain stage.

 

[veganrob]

Re: Re:

how many would've finished the tour riding clean?
any doctor without a steak in cycling will tell you that it's close to impossible to ride the TdF without doping.
you could try but you'd either get sick or surpass the time limit and be disqualified well before reaching Paris.

If they were all clean would the attrition rate not be the same but the times just a whole lot slower? Just asking. I assume you mean a stake in cycling or are doctors getting paid with all that clenbuterol beef these days (courtesy of Contador).

In answer to the thread question - none!

You are correct. The TdF was raced on alcohol and cigarettes years ago and there was a winner. Times would be slower but attrition woul be close to the present probably. Cut-off time is only determined by the winner of stage.

 

[cnc-it]

He couldn't race 3 weeks , 2 was his limit before he caved in..groupetto on the climbs and the odd stage win early on if the parcours was undulating..

 

[deValtos]

7.

He'd have found another way to cheat. Motor in bike, paying off officials/riders, holding oppositions families hostage, I'm sure Lance would've come up with something.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

How many Armstrong threads would we have if he was never caught...

 

[Taxus4a]

Nowadays with 30 years old? Zero, maybe a top ten.
Some stages, medium mountain and hilly stages.
Fighten the victory in classics as Amstel.
Possibly a world championship.

 

[ppanther92]

Re:

how many would've finished the tour riding clean?
any doctor without a steak in cycling will tell you that it's close to impossible to ride the TdF without doping.
you could try but you'd either get sick or surpass the time limit and be disqualified well before reaching Paris.

What are you even talking about? I guess the Tour didn't exist since 1903 than, when there weren't any damn drugs available. (except tabac and alcohol ) The finishing number would be more or less the same like it is now, since the tempo would drop massively.

Regarding the topic: zero. Maybe some good results in classics, but than again he was on roids and other stuff pretty much since ever. So who knows...

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

how many would've finished the tour riding clean?
any doctor without a steak in cycling will tell you that it's close to impossible to ride the TdF without doping.
you could try but you'd either get sick or surpass the time limit and be disqualified well before reaching Paris.

What are you even talking about? I guess the Tour didn't exist since 1903 than, when there weren't any damn drugs available. (except tabac and alcohol ) The finishing number would be more or less the same like it is now, since the tempo would drop massively.

Regarding the topic: zero. Maybe some good results in classics, but than again he was on roids and other stuff pretty much since ever. So who knows...

1903 tour was 6 stages, spread out over 17 days.
i agree that's perfectly possible without peds.

 

[Tonton]

Zero. Some successes in classics. Who would have won those Tours? Who was clean in the top-20, top 30? Hard to tell. Moncoutie probably...
Of course, it is possible to compete clean in the TdF...at 35 km/h average. Not at 40.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Of course, it is possible to compete clean in the TdF...at 35 km/h average. Not at 40.

More like 39.5 km/h. As Fignon put it: You roll along hidden in a wind shield the whole day, only the last couple of kms get hard when you try to get separation (on a mountain stage).
So the speed clean would be the same as the doped one for 90% of the time.

 

[ppanther92]

Re: Re:

how many would've finished the tour riding clean?
any doctor without a steak in cycling will tell you that it's close to impossible to ride the TdF without doping.
you could try but you'd either get sick or surpass the time limit and be disqualified well before reaching Paris.

What are you even talking about? I guess the Tour didn't exist since 1903 than, when there weren't any damn drugs available. (except tabac and alcohol ) The finishing number would be more or less the same like it is now, since the tempo would drop massively.

Regarding the topic: zero. Maybe some good results in classics, but than again he was on roids and other stuff pretty much since ever. So who knows...

1903 tour was 6 stages, spread out over 17 days.
i agree that's perfectly possible without peds.

And in the 1910s and 20s they were usually above 5000km in 28 days, so a higher km/pay ration than nowadays. The guy that synthesized testosterone for the first time got a nobel prize for it and that happened 1939, son no steroids, let not even talk about blood doping.

 

[ppanther92]

Of course, it is possible to compete clean in the TdF...at 35 km/h average. Not at 40.

More like 39.5 km/h. As Fignon put it: You roll along hidden in a wind shield the whole day, only the last couple of kms get hard when you try to get separation (on a mountain stage).
So the speed clean would be the same as the doped one for 90% of the time.

I think it will drop a little bit more. What you stated goes for a clean rider in a doped peloton. If nobody dopes, also the domwstiques or the wind shield as you called couldn't go as fast and as long.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

how many would've finished the tour riding clean?
any doctor without a steak in cycling will tell you that it's close to impossible to ride the TdF without doping.
you could try but you'd either get sick or surpass the time limit and be disqualified well before reaching Paris.

What are you even talking about? I guess the Tour didn't exist since 1903 than, when there weren't any damn drugs available. (except tabac and alcohol ) The finishing number would be more or less the same like it is now, since the tempo would drop massively.

Regarding the topic: zero. Maybe some good results in classics, but than again he was on roids and other stuff pretty much since ever. So who knows...

1903 tour was 6 stages, spread out over 17 days.
i agree that's perfectly possible without peds.

So how about the 1907 edition?
Winning time 158 hours (today 80something)
Total length: 4.500 km (nowadays a little bit over 3.000)

... all on tobacco, alc, bad roads, heavy bikes, etc...

On topic: LA? Zero TdF wins, not even a T-20...

 

[Nick C.]

Zero

 

[red_flanders]

Zero. Zip. Squadouche.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Of course, it is possible to compete clean in the TdF...at 35 km/h average. Not at 40.

More like 39.5 km/h. As Fignon put it: You roll along hidden in a wind shield the whole day, only the last couple of kms get hard when you try to get separation (on a mountain stage).
So the speed clean would be the same as the doped one for 90% of the time.

I think it will drop a little bit more. What you stated goes for a clean rider in a doped peloton. If nobody dopes, also the domwstiques or the wind shield as you called couldn't go as fast and as long.

Good point. How about 39 km/h? Even though I think that´s too low (a full 2.5% overall discount for all the 3.000+ kms)... We don´t know really, so something between 39.0 and 39.7 clean.

 

[ppanther92]

Good point. How about 39 km/h? Even though I think that´s too low (a full 2.5% overall discount for all the 3.000+ kms)... We don´t know really, so something between 39.0 and 39.7 clean.

I don't know really, but nowhere near not able to finish for clean riders.

 

[Andynonomous]

Thanks for the replies (at least the serious ones).

I guess that the sentiment is that (unless he put a hidden motor in his bike), he would have won zero TDFs (or zero grand tours for that matter). He just didn't have the natural stamina to pull it off.

I will post a link from "Mens Tennis Forums" to this thread. Feel free to add any more (serious) responses.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Good point. How about 39 km/h? Even though I think that´s too low (a full 2.5% overall discount for all the 3.000+ kms)... We don´t know really, so something between 39.0 and 39.7 clean.

I don't know really, but nowhere near not able to finish for clean riders.

Ok, lets give it a try: TH was on panigua when finishing 100something. I am too lazy to sift trou the internet for the correct numbers now. So some close assumptions:
Winning time by LA 85 hours at 41 km/h.
TH 86.5 hours clean = 40.3 km/h. Now the peloton speed was doped, so that spoils the numbers. Otoh, TH didn´t gave it all when knowing he had no chance to compete for anything in the mountain stages. So that evens out the numbers.
Thus the guess with 0.3-1.0 km/h slower wasn´t bad...

 

[frenchfry]

Armstrong who?

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Of course zero. He would have been in the autobus on every climb.

 

[jens_attacks]

at least 7 maybe 15

 

[carton]

Agree with the zero brigade. He would've won stages for sure -faking cramps for the last 10km and then pipping someone at the line. He would've also raced until he was 40. So basically something around a Jens Voigt-type palmares.

As to who would've won on paniagua instead: someone like Jan Ullrich, quite possibly the big man himself. There was a lot of time-trialing in the Tour up to very recently, the Rodriguez-Herrera lithe-climber-types were usually long shots. Anquetil, Hinault, Merckx were all great time-trialists, as was LeMond, Fignon, et al. And while it's hard to know where real talent ended and the artificial one began, my best guess is that Ullrich would've ruled the roost for a while. Yeah he seemed a bit lazy, but though cycling is really hard, after attaining a really high base level of fitness, it seems talent/recovery (the real or artificial type) wins out over hard work / over-training. Hinault was also famous for getting fat in the winter.

 

[Metabolol]

I know that it is speculative, but how many Tour de France's DO YOU THINK that Armstrong would have won, if everybody (including Armstrong) rode clean ? Just give me a number.

I ask this, because the tennis crowd (MensTennisForums) are asking.

Zero. He wouldn't even been close to winning. What did LeMond say? 30-50th place? Complete fraud.

And even if everyone was doped he would have won zero Tours if the Festina scandal hadn't happened. He got lucky in 99 and after that he could do what he wanted.