How much time do the Schlecks need to find ahead of the ITT ?

[Tony80]

This is something that keeps cropping up in other threads - thought it would be good to have a thread of its own

recent TT results

2010 Tour stage 19 (52km, flattish) :
Contador- 5:43
Andy S- 6:14
Voeckler- 9:11
Evans (injured)- 10:57

2009 Tour stage 18 (40.5km, one category 3 climb)
Contador wins
Evans- 1:14
Andy S- 1:44
F Schleck- 2:34
Voeckler- 5:12

2009 Vuelta stage 7 (30km, flat)
Evans- 1:02
Andy S- 2:02
Frank S- 2:22

2008 Tour
stage 4 (29km, flat)
Evans- 0:27
Andy S- 1:29
Frank S- 2:14
Voeckler- 2:53

stage 20 (53km, small hills - similar to this year's course)
Evans- 2:05
Andy S- 4:02
Frank S- 5:38
Voeckler- 11:19

2007 Tour
stage 13 (54km, one long uncat climb plus one cat 4 climb)
Evans- 1:14
Contador- 2:18
Frank S- 4:48
Voeckler- 10:42

stage 19 (55km, small hills like this year)
Evans- 0:51
Contador- 2:18
Frank S- 4:48
Voeckler- 5:50

this year the TT is shorter (42.5km) and has two hills, less flat than less year. does this change favour Andy Schleck or Contador ?

My prediction:
Evans and Contador will post similar times.
Andy S- 0:40 behind Evans and Contador
Frank S- 1:20
Voeckler- 4:00


what do you all expect from the TT ?

In Andy Schleck's mind what type of defcit do you think is he expecting ?

Evans v Contador is hard to call. Evans beat AC in both TTs in 2007 - could he beat him again ?

 

[ericthesportsman6]

IMO around 45 seconds to a minute

 

[the vagabond]

Absolutely no way Voeckler would be 4 minutes back. If he has yellow he probably won't lose much more than a minute. That's why he is the co-favorite with Evans at this point, in my mind.

 

[BYOP88]

Evans beat Contador in '07, but no dig at Evans, I think his ITT has declined since then, but still better than the Schlecks ITT skill. As for time between Evans and the Schleck boys, I'd say Andy needs 60 seconds and Frank needs around 90 seconds to be safe from the Evans threat.

 

[Parrulo]

assuming contador regains his top form

evans would need a minute/minute and a half on contador to be sure, andy 2 to be sure, frank 3 to be sure, and tommy V 5 minutes to be sure.

on a time trial the yellow can give you as many wings as she wants if you are as aero as a wall and can't put the power it won't change anything.

notice that i use to be sure so those times would imo make their advantage comfortable

Evans beat Contador in '07, but no dig at Evans, I think his ITT has declined since then, but still better than the Schlecks ITT skill. As for time between Evans and the Schleck boys, I'd say Andy needs 60 seconds and Frank needs around 90 seconds to be safe from the Evans threat.

and contador's time trial improved too

 

[jobiwan]

Andy's already got the gap he needs over Contador.
It's that pesky little Evans that's the problem.

 

[rides like a girl]

My answer depends on if Andy and Frank have yellow prior to the ITT. At this rate, I would be surprised if they have yellow by that stage, without huge efforts that might affect their ability to do well on the ITT.

My guess Andy needs 60 seconds at the minimum on AC and Cadel if all things are going well for him. Not sure if Tommy V is in yellow what Andy will need. I don't think Tommy V has done a ITT when something was on the line like this.

Having Andy needing to gain time on the ITT to get the yellow is not the best recipe for success. He doesn't do TT well. He would leave the start house towards the end of the stage. He would know if the riders before him lit it up. That could make him nervous, doubtful, making it harder to get the time he would need.

I know it isn't the same course as last year, but the weather last year for the last riders on the course, wind, was worse than it was for the ones towards the beginning. This year on the TTT the wind shifted at the end of the race and quite possibly aided the late starters. To factor in weather adds a possible complication for the Schlecks. Imagine that weather issues that could factor into the stage would mentally hurt a weak ITT more than it would hurt someone who knows they can do a good ITT.

 

[BYOP88]

Also remember that Andy is due to drop his chain or something equally funny and demand that everyone stops.

 

[jobiwan]

Also remember that Andy is due to drop his chain or something equally funny and demand that everyone stops.

Can he do that in a Time Trial though?

(Slaps himself in the face for laughing at Andy's expense )

 

[BYOP88]

Can he do that in a Time Trial though?

(Slaps himself in the face for laughing at Andy's expense )

Yeah didn't he drop the chain in this years TdS, the prologue, if I recall correctly.

 

[jobiwan]

Yeah didn't he drop the chain in this years TdS, the prologue, if I recall correctly.

Would he try to neutralize the Time Trial?

(Must Stop Laughing at Andy's Expense )

 

[BYOP88]

All things are possible, maybe Cancellara would neutralize it

 

[Merckx index]

Are folks here aware that Evans and Voeckler rode this exact same course a few weeks ago in the DL?

Evans beat TV by just 1:58.

 

[Scansorial]

Anything under a minute would be a serious nail biter.

I think it would take a loss over 1:30 to really surprise me, but I would predict something like 40-50 seconds for Andy.

 

[dlwssonic]

voeckler should lose it here if he still is strong in the mountains. I think he will lose 1min combined on the galiber and huez. 1 min cushion wont be enough for him.

 

[theswordsman]

Can he do that in a Time Trial though?

(Slaps himself in the face for laughing at Andy's expense )

Stage 1 Tour de Suisse Schlecklet needed a bike change in a 7.3 kilometer TT. Finished 147th in 1:18. It made me very happy.

Stage 6 ATOC 24 kilometers 38th @ 2:15

A healthy Contador can win TT's, or at least podium against the best. Andy needs more time than he's got now.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Schlecks need a lot more time than they tried to take today on stage 14, where pre-race everyone (me included) was thinking it was going to be a battle on the Plateau but turned out being a dud.

After the stage the Schleck bros were complaining about the lack of aggression from the other GC contenders: (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-brothers-lament-a-lack-of-aggression-from-gc-contenders)

"We tried several times but the only other one that was a little bit interested was Ivan Basso," complained Frank Schleck at the finish.

That's just great Franklin. As if he and Andy were not part of what was lacking.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Are folks here aware that Evans and Voeckler rode this exact same course a few weeks ago in the DL?

Evans beat TV by just 1:58.

You can make some comparisons with the Dauphine TT in June but that was after 3 days of racing and for Voeckler to come within 2 minutes of Evans in a 40km TT is surprising to say the least.

 

[Lanark]

I would say Andy Schleck's lead is confortable if he has a minute on Evans and Contador, Fränk Schleck and Voeckler need about two minutes, although if Fränk has one of his poorer days, he needs 3 minutes.

 

[El Pistolero]

I would say Andy Schleck's lead is confortable if he has a minute on Evans and Contador, Fränk Schleck and Voeckler need about two minutes, although if Fränk has one of his poorer days, he needs 3 minutes.

This isn't a prologue.

 

[Lanark]

This isn't a prologue.

Exactly, so this should suite him much better.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

I know it isn't the same course as last year, but the weather last year for the last riders on the course, wind, was worse than it was for the ones towards the beginning.

Rider's start in reverse GC order, so the contenders are on course at pretty much the same time which neutralises the conditional differences for them. It's other non-GC riders contending for a stage win only that can gain (or lose) from an earlier start time but won't affect GC outcome.

 

[El Imbatido]

Are folks here aware that Evans and Voeckler rode this exact same course a few weeks ago in the DL?

Evans beat TV by just 1:58.

You also have to remember that it was raining that day........I don't think Evans or Vino were going all out that day as they would've risked crashing and wrecking their whole season just to win the Dauphine.

Also Wiggins put 1.30min into Evans and well over 2 into Vino.....don't think that would happen on a sunny day at the end of a 3 week race. To put this even further into perspective Evans still passed his 1min man....Nicholas Roche

 

[Jeanne]

This is something that keeps cropping up in other threads - thought it would be good to have a thread of its own

recent TT results

2010 Tour stage 19 (52km, flattish) :
Contador- 5:43
Andy S- 6:14
Voeckler- 9:11
Evans (injured)- 10:57

2009 Tour stage 18 (40.5km, one category 3 climb)
Contador wins
Evans- 1:14
Andy S- 1:44
F Schleck- 2:34
Voeckler- 5:12

2009 Vuelta stage 7 (30km, flat)
Evans- 1:02
Andy S- 2:02
Frank S- 2:22

2008 Tour
stage 4 (29km, flat)
Evans- 0:27
Andy S- 1:29
Frank S- 2:14
Voeckler- 2:53

stage 20 (53km, small hills - similar to this year's course)
Evans- 2:05
Andy S- 4:02
Frank S- 5:38
Voeckler- 11:19

2007 Tour
stage 13 (54km, one long uncat climb plus one cat 4 climb)
Evans- 1:14
Contador- 2:18
Frank S- 4:48
Voeckler- 10:42

stage 19 (55km, small hills like this year)
Evans- 0:51
Contador- 2:18
Frank S- 4:48
Voeckler- 5:50

this year the TT is shorter (42.5km) and has two hills, less flat than less year. does this change favour Andy Schleck or Contador ?

My prediction:
Evans and Contador will post similar times.
Andy S- 0:40 behind Evans and Contador
Frank S- 1:20
Voeckler- 4:00


what do you all expect from the TT ?

In Andy Schleck's mind what type of defcit do you think is he expecting ?

Evans v Contador is hard to call. Evans beat AC in both TTs in 2007 - could he beat him again ?

Wow, the thing that really hits me; I had NO idea Voeckler is such a lame time trialist!!!! (at least considering the above results)

 

[LukeSchmid]

If Voecker is still in the lead come the TT it is such a different performance than what he has done previously I am not sure we can read too much into his previous TT performances. He might be able to do an excellent TT as well.