How much time do the Schlecks need to find ahead of the ITT ?

[Libertine Seguros]

Bear in mind that Voeckler has never really had to try with anything whatsoever on the line in a long ITT before.

 

[Jeanne]

Bear in mind that Voeckler has never really had to try with anything whatsoever on the line in a long ITT before.

that's true. If he's still doing good in the alps and be in a good postition before the final TT - and then with all the motivation he must have right now, who knows how it will be this year.

 

[Finn84]

Bear in mind that Voeckler has never really had to try with anything whatsoever on the line in a long ITT before.

2004 is probably only time when you can say he rode for something - white jersey in that case. He had advantage of 45 seconds over Karpets and 1.56 over Casar at that point. But he lost the positions on both of them and quite a big margin. Lost some more seconds in Champs-Elysées too.

So in the end:
Karpets
Casar +3.42
Voeckler +6.01

 

[Martin318is]

Wow, the thing that really hits me; I had NO idea Voeckler is such a lame time trialist!!!! (at least considering the above results)

Thats the point - the above results are meaningless.

Can you name the last time that TV's motivation in the Tour's final time trial was to win it? I mean, rather than just making sure he made the time-cut?

This is looking like the first time ever that TV will care in the final time trial. That makes the June result very interesting.

 

[Ratatosk]

2004 is probably only time when you can say he rode for something - white jersey in that case. He had advantage of 45 seconds over Karpets and 1.56 over Casar at that point. But he lost the positions on both of them and quite a big margin. Lost some more seconds in Champs-Elysées too.

So in the end:
Karpets
Casar +3.42
Voeckler +6.01

He was completely wrecked by the time that TT came along though. If he starts the TT in yellow, I would not expect him to lose more that 2:30-3:00 on the best GC-contender.

I think it'll go something like:

Contador
Evans +0:45
Basso +1:15
Sanchez +1:30
Andy +1:45
Frank +2:00
Voeckler & Cunego + 2:30

Of course it all depends on how each of them survives the Alps.

 

[unsheath]

Wow, the thing that really hits me; I had NO idea Voeckler is such a lame time trialist!!!! (at least considering the above results)

If you're 100th on GC, you're hardly going all out. He'll be much better when the MJ is on the line.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

If Voeckler is still in yellow at the start of the ITT, he won't lose more than a minute to the strongest of the other contenders. Yellow really does give you wings. Don't forget the whole population of France will be on the sides shouting his name. We all know how much Voeckler loves attention. Seeing all those people there just for him will give him even more wings. That considered 30 seconds on Evans might be enough.

The Schlecks need more, depending on having yellow or not. Frank will need 2 minutes no matter what. Andy can do with a minute on Evans I think. Although his Suisse ITT was really horrible.

 

[luckyboy]

The Schlecks are already losing this race, the TT will just confirm it. Voeckler hasn't been in a position where he actually has to fight in the TT so we'll see about that.

 

[The Hitch]

I think Schlecks will do nothing till stage 18 then put out all the stops.

Leave it all for stage 18.

Its hard enough, and if for any reason they fail to get the job done, they still have Alpe d huez.

But Leopard can set a decent pace up the Col d Angel, go nutson the Col d Izoard, shrinking the group, then try a few attacks with Frank at around the 10k mark on Galibier, and then have Andy go solo.

That should do the trick. It should be enough to put time into Voeckler and Evans.

And if it doesnt.

Theres still Alpe d huez.

Its how Basso did it on Arroyo. Didnt wait till Gavia. Had Liqui set a monster pace up the Mortirolo and did the job there and then, knowing if it didnt work he still had Gavia.

 

[El Pistolero]

Mortirolo is a crazy climb though.

 

[Parrulo]

and leopard doesn't has szmyd and nibali to set the pace

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Leopard doesn't have the helpers to do that. Voigt only gets you so far. Every time Leopard tried to push so far, there were still 40+ people left. Unless they use Frank to pull hard on the Izoard, but we all know that won't happen.

 

[Publicus]

They are going to have to decide on a leader and go with him until the end. And hope that Liquigas, Euskaltel AND Saxo Bank contribute to the whittling down the peloton, since all three need to put time into Cadel and Tommy V (can't believe I wrote that as a serious comment, but that is the sign of the times).

Though, what I really want to see (and this isn't the point of this thread) is Samu attack on stages 16 and 17 on the descents . . . .

 

[No_Balls]

Leopard doesn't have the helpers to do that. Voigt only gets you so far. Every time Leopard tried to push so far, there were still 40+ people left. Unless they use Frank to pull hard on the Izoard, but we all know that won't happen.

Nah, Frank will only burn out himself just like the other Leopards and Andy has to ask Canc to neutralize the stage.

Come Galibier let alone Alpe d´huez the dirty work (which means setting the pace from the bottom and push some serious attacks) can´t be avoided for the Schlecks. There are no other way but hard work that can get them in yellow.

 

[BYOP88]

Leopard doesn't have the helpers to do that. Voigt only gets you so far. Every time Leopard tried to push so far, there were still 40+ people left. Unless they use Frank to pull hard on the Izoard, but we all know that won't happen.

Hey don't forget that old mountain goat O'Grady I mean what a career a 2nd tier sprinter to P-R winner to a mountain goat.

 

[Cimber]

To contador about a minut. To Evans about 2.

 

[Christophe]

I'd take Voeckler as an unknown for this TT -- He has never before had a compelling reason to really compete a long TT at the Tour. That said, he might be rather tapped out after the Alps. It will be interesting to see!

 

[LaFlorecita]

To contador about a minut. To Evans about 2.

No way Evans is that much better than Contador

 

[JPM London]

84 hrs, 27 mins and 12 secs - unless they plan to drop the chain. Then they'd need 84 hrs, 27 mins and 51 secs...

 

[davestoller]

Frank: 2:00
Andy: 2:30

but in the modern era, maybe even more

 

[jobiwan]

Frank: 2:00
Andy: 2:30

but in the modern era, maybe even more

Wrong. Andy's MUUUUCH better than Frank.

Case in Point:

2009 Tour Stage 18 Annecy TT:

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:03

21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44

(Oh look , Andy only lost 1:44 to a Top Form Contador on a similar course to this year. Anyone who says Contador can get back a 2-3 minute gap on Andy is fooling themselves)

35 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:34

Frank went from 3rd to 6th in one day. He's awful at the TT

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wrong. Andy's MUUUUCH better than Frank.

Case in Point:

2009 Tour Stage 18 Annecy TT:

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:03

21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44

(Oh look :O, Andy only lost 1:44 to a Top Form Contador on a similar course to this year. Anyone who says Contador can get back a 2-3 minute gap on Andy is fooling themselves)

35 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:34

Frank went from 3rd to 6th in one day. He's awful at the TT

But Andy needs a buffer for the inevitable chain drop.

Edit:Jesus Christ! I posted over 20 posts today. That's what happens when there isn't a Tour stage. As if I've got nothing better to do. I could, for example, make the cupcakes I promised my brother a long while ago, although he's probably already forgotten.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I expect something like this in the time trial:
Cancellara
Contador 30"
Evans 1'00"
Sanchez 1'30"
Andy 2'00"
Basso 2'30"
Fränk 3'00"
Voeckler 3'30"
Cunego 4'00"

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

Andy versus Cadel:

2008 Tour
stage 4 (29km, flat)
+1:02

stage 20 (53km, small hills - similar to this year's course)
+1:57

2009 Tour stage 18 (40.5km, one category 3 climb)
+ 0:30

2009 Vuelta stage 7 (30km, flat)
+1:00

2010 Tour stage 19 (52km, flattish) :
Not relevant at all.

Andy versus Bertie:

2009 Tour stage 18 (40.5km, one category 3 climb)
+1:44

2010 Tour stage 19 (52km, flattish) :
+0:31

Doubt he'll lose 2 minutes to either one of them. Contador's TT wont be near his 2009 level.

Another question is Cuddles versus Bert. I think they'll be pretty close.

 

[Oldman]

Frank: 2:00
Andy: 2:30

but in the modern era, maybe even more

I'd agree but we still need to see the physical effects of the Alps. With so many in theoretical contention we're bound to see some serious efforts that might impact TT ability. The reason these guys aren't attacking like previous Tours is the same reason the TT differential could be skewed: they don't have the same "means" to recover.