How much time do the Schlecks need to find ahead of the ITT ?

[Midnightfright]

Well I guess I would have to classify 100% as 100% after 2/3 weeks of a GT. I think if it was a one day event Andy might well lose 30 seconds to a minute more but in a late GT TT I would say a minute for Evans is quite a lot to take on. There's something special about Andy late in the tour, that's why I expect him to take time tomorrow as well. He's just amazing in the last few days.

yeah I do agree all that matters are there GT TT, it was more just a throw away comment about "fresh" timetrials Contador only took 30 odd seconds of him last year. This time trial is so dependent on Stamina and recovery which seems to be to of Andys best attributes.

 

[BYOP88]

For Evans to win, he needs Andy to have a bad stage 19 and has to lose not much time on Frank, if that happens Evans will win the Tour. If Andy doesn't lose time then Evans will more than likely not be able to overtake Andy just like Sastre in '08.

 

[seaby71]

I think something that everyone has seemed to have forgotten is that cadel has raced this exact itt course already. He also stated that he took it a bit easy on the decent during the critirium. Having raced this exact course already is a huge advantage, also with the decent being very technical it will favour cadel more than andy and frank. Having knowledge is certainly worth extra time. Andy will need 1.45 plus on cadel for him even to get close.

 

[hfer07]

two minutes to be safe & avoid loosing the tour by another "shifting" issue....

 

[patswana]

I don't think that Cadel can allow Andy any more time. Andy could well stay within a minute, particularly as Cadel will be stuffed after these last two stages before the ITT.

 

[Tony80]

the one TT that stands out in Andy's record is 2009 when he was just 1:44 off the TT winner (Contador) and just 30 seconds behind Cadel

why was Andy able to be so close that day ?

the course was 40.5 k and had one cat 3 climb - does that one cat 3 climb make such a difference compared to a relatively flat course (like in 2008 and 2010) ?

 

[mr. tibbs]

the one TT that stands out in Andy's record is 2009 when he was just 1:44 off the TT winner (Contador) and just 30 seconds behind Cadel

why was Andy able to be so close that day ?

the course was 40.5 k and had one cat 3 climb - does that one cat 3 climb make such a difference compared to a relatively flat course (like in 2008 and 2010) ?

Andy has a serious engine, climbs or no. Remember what he did today in a group of three (working, of which he was one) riders. He can do great things if he just believes he can.

 

[luckyboy]

I don't think that Cadel can allow Andy any more time. Andy could well stay within a minute, particularly as Cadel will be stuffed after these last two stages before the ITT.

Andy won't get any time on Cadel tomorrow. Frank will be the one attacking.

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

Andy dropped his sram chain, so he dropped sram and got shimano Di2..

andy has been working on his TT btw.. he needs 30 seconds over a strong cadel for the TT.. victory is assured.

 

[luckyboy]

Christ he needs more than 30 seconds. I doubt he would be happy with that slim advantage.

 

[Ferminal]

Andy dropped his sram chain, so he dropped sram and got shimano Di2..

andy has been working on his TT btw.. he needs 30 seconds over a strong cadel for the TT.. victory is assured.

Just like he has been working on it for the past 3 years, with no real change in results?

Or has he made a miraculous improvement since losing to Cunego last month?

 

[El Imbatido]

I was thinking he needs about 1min 30sec........+ Cadel has the advantage of already riding the course at the Dauphine

 

[the asian]

I do think the current gap of 57 seconds will be enough as he will be riding after Cadel.
1 Min & 30 Sec should give him a comfortable win.

 

[Midnightfright]

I do think Andys TT is better Than what most think. The only ones I think you can truly judge him on are his recent tour ones. That's the only ones he really takes seriously, I.mean of we were to judge his climbing by the rest of the year then you would be expecting him to finish ib the grupetto half the time.

 

[VoidSix]

I'd say Andy needed a lot more than 57 seconds, except people seem to be forgetting that Cadel isn't a great TTer anymore.

Sastre is a terrible TTer and if he couldn't beat Sastre out of yellow, he can't beat Andy out of yellow. My guess is it is more likely that Cuddles can take time out of Andy tomorrow with Andy tired than on Saturday.

 

[ILOVEMTB]

If time gaps do not change I would say its 50/50 as to who wins, if Andy gains time today I feel its game over for Cadel and if Cadel can gain any time today odds are Cadel would come out ahead on Saturday.

 

[offbyone]

Interesting numbers. If Voeckler always a mess in a ITT?

I thought andy would need more time, but maybe not. Tomorrow should create some more gaps.

 

[spalco]

I'd say Andy needed a lot more than 57 seconds, except people seem to be forgetting that Cadel isn't a great TTer anymore.

Look at the times in the first post. I think with the GC standing right now it's a coin flip, it's exactly on the edge. But every additional second could be disaster for Evans, he absolutely can't allow Andy to take any more time.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

On the other hand, Voeckler hasn't done a really good long ITT in... ever, and Andy could well be shattered if he puts in a good show tomorrow too.

indeed. tommy v is an unknown.
However I doubt he ever suspected to be in this position and thus has never really worked on his itt. It will be difficult to be great technically.

I posted this in another thread regarding evans itt.

indeed.
And he was 1.20 - 1.30 better then the likes of vdb and gesink who are maybe a fair comparison. However andy Generally is stronger in the 3rd week, and Evans less good.

Anything over 1.30 is game over for cuddles. I have a hunch 1 minute would just be enough for andy tho.

 

[Lanark]

2009 ITT Contador took 1.45, Wiggins took 1.02, every other GC rider took less than 57 seconds.

2010 ITT Menchov took 2.23 (what a great ride that was), Vino, Contador and Sanchez took between 20 an 40 seconds on him, the rest lost time to Schleck

So the last two years there have been only 3 GC riders who have taken more than 57 seconds on Andy Schleck, one of them was very close to 57 seconds, the other two were absolutely mindblowing that day. With 57 seconds it could go either way, but at this point I would put my money on Schleck (although a lot can stll happen today).

 

[Mellow Velo]

Indeed.
In the 2009 Annecy ITT, (similar course, Cadel not injured) Evans beat Andy by 31"

 

[uphillstruggle]

Indeed.
In the 2009 Annecy ITT, (similar course, Cadel not injured) Evans beat Andy by 31"

You have to admit that Evans' form is much better than in the 2009 tour. The course maybe similar, there natural ability the same as past years but form and fatigue are the real variables that come into play.

Personally I think AS will snatch another 20-30 on the Alpe and put it out of reach for poor old Cadel.

 

[El Pistolero]

Frank needs 3 minutes. I hope Andy will crack today at Alpe.

 

[Midnightfright]

Frank needs 3 minutes. I hope Andy will crack today at Alpe.

Crack the peloton?

 

[jens_attacks]

andy already has enough but he will go for more today.