How much time do the Schlecks need to find ahead of the ITT ?

[Archibald]

You can make some comparisons with the Dauphine TT in June but that was after 3 days of racing and for Voeckler to come within 2 minutes of Evans in a 40km TT is surprising to say the least.

was just thinking that the Alps will take a lot out of Voeckler. Well, more out of him than the likes of Evans or the Schlecks. Thinking about it, I reckon they'll take more out of Evans and Frank than Andy too, which could make it rather interesting considering just how much they will (or won't) have in the tank for the TT

 

[El Pistolero]

Andy said a minute and a half.

 

[Oldman]

was just thinking that the Alps will take a lot out of Voeckler. Well, more out of him than the likes of Evans or the Schlecks. Thinking about it, I reckon they'll take more out of Evans and Frank than Andy too, which could make it rather interesting considering just how much they will (or won't) have in the tank for the TT

My point, exactly. It's not like they can top off with reckless abandon these days; which is why I like this Tour. They may be going a little slower but you can be sure the pain level is totally real.

 

[Ramira]

I expect something like this in the time trial:
Cancellara
Contador 30"
Evans 1'00"
Sanchez 1'30"
Andy 2'00"
Basso 2'30"
Fränk 3'00"
Voeckler 3'30"
Cunego 4'00"

I think this is pretty much spot on. That was about what I had in mind, though the Cancellara sort of confuses the issue . Although Contador might fall a little closer to Evans depending on his form.

 

[Tony80]

Andy said a minute and a half.

when did he say this ?

 

[El Pistolero]

when did he say this ?

He was a guest at Vive Le Velo yesterday night.

 

[luckyboy]

They're not going to get it, however much they need.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

They need about 25 minutes I think.

 

[jobiwan]

They need about 25 minutes I think.

Something like that!

 

[Casbar]

More on the gaps and the upcoming ITT.


Voeckler is currently 1:45 ahead of Cadel in the TdF. It dos not seem to be quite enough time for TV to survive the ITT and stay ahead of Cadel, barring a Cadel fall or mechanical. This year's Criterium du Dauphine (weather was a factor with some rain) is identical to the upcoming ITT for the TdF in Grenoble. In that ITT, TV lost exactly 1:58 in the Stage 3 ITT to Cadel. Sammy Sanchez lost 2:07. Basso lost almost 5 mins, but he was still recovering from a hard fall just three weeks prior, so he can ride much better. Neither of the Schlecks, nor Contador rode the CdD this year, so their current ITT sharpness (let alone on the identical course) is more uncertain. Therefore the information listed below from the other posters is the best available for Contador/Schelcks vs Cadel. IMHO, the last time an ITT really mattered, was similar, and both Contador, Evans, and FSchleck were healthy and riding hard was the TdF 2007 (Stage 19). In that ITT, as below, AC lost 1:37 in that to Evans and FSchleck lost 3:57.


Bottom line, Cadel is in a VERY good spot RIGHT NOW for this TdF and he knows it.


So strategy for the key riders should be :


1. Cadel does not need to attack
2. F Schleck and A Schleck need to attack to get ahead of Cadel prior to the ITT
3. Basso and Contador due to their larger current deficits desperately need to attack
4. Sanchez and Cunego need to attack as well given their deficit and relatively weak ITT skills.
5. Voeckler needs to keep his lead where it is now, a tough call headed into the Galibier, over Cadel to have a chance in the ITT
- but most readers do not seem to realise that TV lost only 1:58 to Cadel on the identical ITT course in the CdE just a month ago


WHAT AN EXCITING TOUR THIS IS ... LET'S HOPE EVERYONE CAN RIDE SAFELY !!

POSTED ON BEHALF OF kpcski

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

evans took only 29 seconds from sastre in 2008.
Generally he struggles on the final ITT.

IMO I actually rate evans 1 minute better for this.
it could be so close.

 

[The Hitch]

evans took only 29 seconds from sastre in 2008.
Generally he struggles on the final ITT.

IMO I actually rate evans 1 minute better for this.
it could be so close.

I think Evans could win the stage. Andy might crack tomorow yet though so he might only need 1.15 on Voeckler.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Honestly I think a minute might be too much for Cadel to take back.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think Evans could win the stage. Andy might crack tomorow yet though so he might only need 1.15 on Voeckler.

no way.

Evans hasn't done a really good long itt in a pretty long time.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Rein in white makes me lol in regards to ryo

 

[jobiwan]

This gap isn't enough for my liking.

I probably won't be able to watch the time trial, so 57 seconds would absolutely kill me!!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

This gap isn't enough for my liking.

I probably won't be able to watch the time trial, so 1:15 would absolutely kill me!!

57 seconds makes for an interesting situation.

I think tomorrow could have schleck win the tour tho. They have a tactical advantage and like D'Heuz

 

[Libertine Seguros]

no way.

Evans hasn't done a really good long itt in a pretty long time.

On the other hand, Voeckler hasn't done a really good long ITT in... ever, and Andy could well be shattered if he puts in a good show tomorrow too.

 

[Midnightfright]

It really could bo either way. With regards to Andy vs Cadel I wouldn't be surprised if Cadel gained almost no time but I could also see he gaining up to 2 minutes. If u had of pushed me at the start of the tour I would of said 30-40 seconds and I would still say if time gaps remain the same that AS would have a slight advantage and he does seem more confident in his TT.

 

[Zoncolan]

Andy could hold on with as little as 30". Anything over a minute would be out of Cadel's reach.
As for Frank 1'20" to 2' is what he needs on Cadel.

 

[K-0tic]

Let's just make it exciting. A Cadel in form would be settling for just a minute, a tired Cadel wouldn't even want to do 30 seconds. So let's make it around 50 seconds and it might be thrilling.

 

[Midnightfright]

Let's just make it exciting. A Cadel in form would be settling for just a minute, a tired Cadel wouldn't even want to do 30 seconds. So let's make it around 50 seconds and it might be thrilling.

If they were both fresh I wouldn't be surprised if Cadel took a couple of minutes on Andy.

 

[Ramira]

If they were both fresh I wouldn't be surprised if Cadel took a couple of minutes on Andy.

The last time he did that was back in 2008 when Andy was already out of contention and Cadel was fighting for the Yellow jersey, he managed 1 min 57 back then, Cadel might not have gotten worse in the TT but Andy definitely got better. I'd say if they're both 100% 1 minute would be very tight for Cadel.

 

[Midnightfright]

The last time he did that was back in 2008 when Andy was already out of contention and Cadel was fighting for the Yellow jersey, he managed 1 min 57 back then, Cadel might not have gotten worse in the TT but Andy definitely got better. I'd say if they're both 100% 1 minute would be very tight for Cadel.

I hope your right even if its just for excitement factor bit if ever have they matched up on a fresh TT? I would of been intrested to see then go against each other in the Dauphine TT I was actually pretty impressed with Cadel there got closer to Wiggo and Martin than I thought he would

 

[Ramira]

I hope your right even if its just for excitement factor bit if ever have they matched up on a fresh TT? I would of been intrested to see then go against each other in the Dauphine TT I was actually pretty impressed with Cadel there got closer to Wiggo and Martin than I thought he would

Well I guess I would have to classify 100% as 100% after 2/3 weeks of a GT. I think if it was a one day event Andy might well lose 30 seconds to a minute more but in a late GT TT I would say a minute for Evans is quite a lot to take on. There's something special about Andy late in the tour, that's why I expect him to take time tomorrow as well. He's just amazing in the last few days.