How to read past ITT's to predict the future: Contador vs Evans

[Zam_Olyas]

btw it is hard to predict the future by reading past itt's, even bobby will have a hard time doing it but he will be able to write a good song about it

 

[Luke Schmid]

Evans will crush Contador only any flat power time trial. More heavier and more powerful rider on the flat. IN a hilly tt it will be close but I still think Evans could come on top. CLearly this thread made by Hitch is to talk up one of his favourites to make him feel good about himself

The funny thing is in 2009 Evans actually had the fastest time up the climb in Annecy. He lost time to Contador, and also Andy Schleck, on the flat at the start of the TT. He actually did the hilly last 22.5 kilometers 12 seconds faster than Contador.

 

[just some guy]

So we have 4 sides here

Contador is a better ITT

Evans is a better ITT

Depends on the day

Don´t care

will we ever find out ? Hopefully next year as after that Evans maybe too old.

Will this still be discussed for a few seasons after next yep

 

[ILOVEMTB]

I think if both are on form it could go either way but Contador is more consistent with his tt results while Cadel can be a little hit and miss.
In 2012 tdf if Contador rides he wins as I don't think Cadel can match him in mountains.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Very surprised to learn that AC has won 14 ITT's to only 2 from CE

So I have to acknowledge that Contador is consistently the better time trialler.

Still, Evans did nearly defeat Martin in this years final TT, which means that his best can be very good indeed, and that if the stars align again that he is a threat to Contador next year at the TDF. His biggest opposition IMO, apart from possibly the authorities.

 

[movingtarget]

Martin will win both time trials unless they are very hilly. I don't see much difference in Contador and Evans. The flatter courses also suit Leipheimer and Menchov but I can't see either of them winning the overall. Without more detail of the stages I think the route suits Evans more than Contador due to the lack of high mountain stages. Evans always said that the prologues don't suit him unless they are a bit longer than usual. Contador seems to be better in that regard.

 

[The Hitch]

contador only become good at TT a few years back - "mysteriously".... (much like pantani did when he won TDF)

evans used to be far better at TT in his earlier days, 3rd Junior TTWC - and lost some of his TT speed when he concentrated on his climbing for TDF.

I find this post, while a bit out of date, takes on the "Contador was a crap tter" idea well.

Your memory does not serve you correctly. Contador has never been a weak time triallist, and certainly wasn't last year.

2008 Vuelta time trial (42.5km) - 4th place
2008 Giro time trial (28.5km) - 11th place (after a change in wind direction negatively affected the later riders, including Contador)
2008 Giro time trial (39.4km) - 2nd place
2008 Vuelta a Castilla y León (9.7km) - 1st place
2008 Vuelta al País Vasco (20km) - 1st place

2007 Tour de France (55.5km) - 5th place
2007 Tour de France - (54km) - 7th place
2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León (10km) - 5th place
2007 Paris - Nice (4.7km) - 5th place

2006 Tour de Romandie (20.4km) - 7th place
2006 Vuelta al País Vasco (24km) - 8th place
2006 Paris-Nice (4.8km) - 4th place

2005 Vuelta al País Vasco (9.3km) - 1st place

2003 Tour de Pologne (19km) - 1st place

2002 Vuelt a Palencia (28.7km) - 1st place

I find people having suspicions about Contador understandable given his links to Operación Puerto and his incredible performances, including at this Tour. But I have a problem with people getting facts wrong to exacerbate their suspicions. It was the same with Stefan Schumacher at last year's Tour - Schumacher had always been someone many of us had suspected for a long time of being on the juice, but at the same time many people acted as though his time trial wins last year came from nowhere, even though he had a history as a very strong time triallist.

 

[Angliru]

I don't think that happened this year if they were both going balls out.

The Tour stage that Evans nipped Contador at the line. If you view the final meters you will see Contador seemed to bait Evans into leading the final sprint out and mistimed his sprint after coming off of Evans' wheel. Evans of course won it but Contador was closing fast as they crossed the line. I'd give the slight edge to Evans on a flat to somewhat uphill grade, but anything steeper I'd give to Contador.

 

[Angliru]

I would like to publicly apologise to The Hitch who I accused of making a thread just for his own public image and to talk up a rider he likes as that was incorrect.


I am still of the belief that Evans will take time out of AC in the TT's

That's very big of you. You should be commended for that.

 

[Angliru]

contador only become good at TT a few years back - "mysteriously".... (much like pantani did when he won TDF)

evans used to be far better at TT in his earlier days, 3rd Junior TTWC - and lost some of his TT speed when he concentrated on his climbing for TDF.

How many ITT wins does Pantani have on his palmares? That comparison is ludicrous.

It never ceases to amaze me how you conjure up your own version of history.
Gumby is bowing his head in shame at your shameful misrepresentation of him as your avatar.

 

[karlboss]

Contador has always been good at TTs but the 2009 TDF was still an anomoly for me.
Put the question who is the better TTer, Contador, put the question in the TDF who will win this TT, I'll look at the course and would describe this years finall TT as my tipping point, shorter to Contador, longer to Evans, lumpier to Contador, flatter to Evans. Suggesting then that on this years TT I'd expect them to be even, I would but Contador had burnt some matches at the Giro and the day before hence I was surprised to see him lose 1 minute.

 

[Publicus]

Yeah, good point, how do you explain Contador's weak performance in the Dauphine & Tour ITTs that year, the only long pan flat ones he's had to do in a long time.

I'll give it a shot. 2010 it was the Dauphine, not the Tour, so he wasn't in top form. In the 2010 Tour, the wind switched to a significant headwind/crosswind, which adversely affected him (~60kg) or do you really rate Chris Sorenson, Jakob Fugslang, Jeremy Roy, Juan Antonio Flecha. Wiggins (~69 kg) and Menchov (~65 kg) had the weight advantage that "helped" them on the flats against the head and crosswinds, and NEITHER were a threat to his overall victory so I doubt he received any information on them or their performance through out his ride. His concern was Andy--who was only 8" behind him in the overall.

So how did I do?

 

[Publicus]

Contador has always been good at TTs but the 2009 TDF was still an anomoly for me.
Put the question who is the better TTer, Contador, put the question in the TDF who will win this TT, I'll look at the course and would describe this years finall TT as my tipping point, shorter to Contador, longer to Evans, lumpier to Contador, flatter to Evans. Suggesting then that on this years TT I'd expect them to be even, I would but Contador had burnt some matches at the Giro and the day before hence I was surprised to see him lose 1 minute.

I don't know why folks are calling that a flat time trial. There was a Cat 3 hill in the middle of the course.

 

[miguelvazpinto]

Contador is the third best time trialist in the international peloton after Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara.

 

[The Hitch]

I'll give it a shot. 2010 it was the Dauphine, not the Tour, so he wasn't in top form. In the 2010 Tour, the wind switched to a significant headwind/crosswind, which adversely affected him (~60kg) or do you really rate Chris Sorenson, Jakob Fugslang, Jeremy Roy, Juan Antonio Flecha. Wiggins (~69 kg) and Menchov (~65 kg) had the weight advantage that "helped" them on the flats against the head and crosswinds, and NEITHER were a threat to his overall victory so I doubt he received any information on them or their performance through out his ride. His concern was Andy--who was only 8" behind him in the overall.

So how did I do?

That could explain why he lost to some earlier riders but not why he lost to a lot of those who started later. He, for example lost to Vino.

Vino is a great tter but Contador on top form beats him easy.

He lost to Samu. Now Samu is a very good tter but Contador on top form beats Samu too. But more to the point Samu had a broken wrist which really cost him and he still beat Contador.

That suggest Contador was much weaker.

And he only beat Schleck by 31 seconds. This year while fatigued and tired from the Giro and with a knee injury he beat him by more than that.

If Contador is beating Andy Schleck by just 31 seconds, and losing at the checkpoints, you know something is wrong.

 

[The Hitch]

I don't know why folks are calling that a flat time trial. There was a Cat 3 hill in the middle of the course.

Yeah it was 37km flat and 3.5km of climbing.

And Contador was top after the 30km flat section.

Which suggests hes far from as poor on flat tts as some like to claim.

I dont think it was as hilly as either of the tts Evans has won.

 

[Publicus]

That could explain why he lost to some earlier riders but not why he lost to a lot of those who started later. He, for example lost to Vino.

Vino is a great tter but Contador on top form beats him easy.

He lost to Samu. Now Samu is a very good tter but Contador on top form beats Samu too. But more to the point Samu had a broken wrist which really cost him and he still beat Contador.

That suggest Contador was much weaker.

And he only beat Schleck by 31 seconds. This year while fatigued and tired from the Giro and with a knee injury he beat him by more than that.

If Contador is beating Andy Schleck by just 31 seconds, and losing at the checkpoints, you know something is wrong.

Says here that AC beat him.

33. Alexandre Vinokourov, Astana, at 05:32
34. Dimitri Champion, Ag2r La Mondiale, at 05:38
35. Alberto Contador, Astana, at 05:43
36. Dries Devenyns, Quick Step, at 05:43
37. Carlos Barredo, Quick Step, at 05:48
38. Walle Jurgen Van De, Quick Step, at 05:50
39. Amaël Moinard, Cofidis Le Credit En Ligne, at 05:51
40. Samuel Sanchez, Euskaltel – Euskadi, at 05:51

And I gave it the old college try on the explanation. It is what it is.

 

[The Hitch]

Says here that AC beat him.



And I gave it the old college try on the explanation. It is what it is.

Oops, my bad, apologies on the mistake.

Though a normal Contador should be putting more than 7 seconds into an injured Samu