How to read past ITT's to predict the future: Contador vs Evans

[The Hitch]

mod comment: this thread was split off from the TdF 2012 route thread to give folk some space to play stats-trumps without derailing that thread. Hitch was not the OP, but he is now.

In that case,
OP Comment: Oh and this thread is about Evans vs Contador on tts, not about stats or predicting the future

Wiggins/Evans/Menchov will take at minimum 5 mins from 3 ITT's out of the Schlecks Contador at least 3-4 mins. No way in hell frandy takes back more than 3 mins total on the "diesels" and diddly squat on Contador.Thought before course was leaked Andy wouldnt podium this parcors certainly dosent change my mind.

Why Evans better than Contador at tt?

Where on earth did this myth come from?

Also Wiggins. Hes a great tter, especially at shorter stuff, but Contador 09 put 46 seconds into him on Annency.

The flat itt i favour Wiggins, but on the hilly one Contador on form should prevail.

He should beat Evans on both, and I think he can beat Menchov on both too.

 

[BillytheKid]

Perhaps some here don't like the cold hard facts of the TT position. Riders may spend a lot of time in the wind tunnel, but it is easy to opt for more comfort. The question is will they learn anything from it. Some may also not like the science of it. I can understand that, but no matter what you allow for a bike, your position pays the most dividends.

 

[roundabout]

In 5 previous long time trials in the Tour it's 3-2 for Evans over Contador

 

[El Pistolero]

Stage 17 when him and Contador put a good 10-15 seconds in 3km on Cadel, Schlecks, Basso, Cunego, Uran was 4 years ago?

Stage 17 where he couldn't follow the correct line, so Contador had to do the rest of the descend?

Plus Cadel Evans was in no position to need to take so many risks at that point of the Tour, so he didn't take them. Gapping the Schlecks, Basso and Cunego on a descend is hardly an achievement.

 

[BillytheKid]

Why Evans better than Contador at tt?

Where on earth did this myth come from?

Also Wiggins. Hes a great tter, especially at shorter stuff, but Contador 09 put 46 seconds into him on Annency.

The flat itt i favour Wiggins, but on the hilly one Contador on form should prevail.

He should beat Evans on both, and I think he can beat Menchov on both too.

Good pics of Evans as well on the links: he also achieves a lower head position (blocking air from the chest area) Both Evans and Martin have "round" backs, but the frontal area is most important.

 

[El Pistolero]

In 5 previous long time trials in the Tour it's 3-2 for Evans over Contador

I really doubt Contador's results in long time trials of 2007 matter. Look at recent years: 2009, 2010 and 2011. And time trials outside the Tour where they faced each other

Contador is also one of the best prologue specialists in cycling.

 

[just some guy]

In 5 previous long time trials in the Tour it's 3-2 for Evans over Contador

But don´t forget 2009 is the only one that counts

PS Hitch 2009 the year of the motorbike draft Alberto - The guy can ITT but Evans and Contador depends on form on the day and if they are holding injuries.

and yes Evans form until this year was off but if you look at this year he seems to be back to better than 2008 from.

imo Dauphine Evans used the course to get ready for the tour and as someone pointed out sweating like a pig sick maybe ?

 

[roundabout]

I am sure Evans finishing 160 something in 2010 is representative of his ability. Or that Contador's 2010 time trial was enough to strike fear.

2009+2011 is only 15 seconds in Contador's favor. I would say it's quite likely that Evans will beat Contador over 2 long time trials next year. Not by much and it won't be enough to win but he will be faster.

 

[BillytheKid]

I really doubt Contador's results in long time trials of 2007 matter. Look at recent years: 2009, 2010 and 2011. And time trials outside the Tour where they faced each other

Contador is also one of the best prologue specialists in cycling.

All these guys have big engines, Contador has improved his position on the bike much more than many others.

 

[The Hitch]

In 5 previous long time trials in the Tour it's 3-2 for Evans over Contador

Actually you are forgetting the 2005 one.

So its 4-2 Evans.

But while we are at it why not check if when Contador was a junior he didnt ride some of the tts as warmup. Then we can add some more points to the Cadel column.

BTW Vino also beat Contador in 2007 and 2005 and he beat Contador in 2010
That means Vino 3-0 Contador, ergo Vino is a better tter than Contador and will beat Contador next year.

Exactly the same logic.

 

[The Hitch]

I really doubt Contador's results in long time trials of 2007 matter. Look at recent years: 2009, 2010 and 2011. And time trials outside the Tour where they faced each other

Contador is also one of the best prologue specialists in cycling.

Actually I think Evans is better at prologues, the Amsterdam 9k tt was awesome where he almost won. But on long tts Contador is better.

The guys who try to point to 2007 and 2011 know that those dont prove Cadel is a better tter as in 07 Contador was still young, and in 2011 Contador was way off shape after the Giro.

Same as we cant take the 2010 one to mean Contador is better as Evans had done the Giro and was injured. Much like Contador this year.

 

[roundabout]

Actually you are forgetting the 2005 ones.

So its 4-2 Evans.

But while we are at it why not check if when Contador was a junior he didnt ride some of the tts as warmup. Then we can add some more points to the Cadel column.

BTW Vino also beat Contador in 2007 and 2005 and he beat Contador in 2010
That means Vino 3-0 Contador, ergo Vino is a better tter than Contador and will beat Contador next year.

Exactly the same logic.

Well, you're the one who thought that it was a myth while I brought up some actual results although this result concept might be alien to you as seen by your reply.

 

[BillytheKid]

OK. Talk results. Perhaps you never have raced. Very few good riders are up on their stats because their putting in miles instead. That doesn't amount to a hill of beans. I believe Gesink and the Schlecks could improve their positions and TT performance vastly. Why they don't. ???

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Heres a name id like to throw into the ring.

You havent seen this one coming.

Yes hes very young.

But dont you agree hes someone to really look out for on this route.


Diego Ulissi.

He did win that superlong stage in the last week of the Giro, so his recuperation is allright, but to say he'll feature for GC might be a bit too soon....

 

[El Pistolero]

Actually I think Evans is better at prologues, the Amsterdam 9k tt was awesome where he almost won. But on long tts Contador is better.

The guys who try to point to 2007 and 2011 know that those dont prove Cadel is a better tter as in 07 Contador was still young, and in 2011 Contador was way off shape after the Giro.

Same as we cant take the 2010 one to mean Contador is better as Evans had done the Giro and was injured. Much like Contador this year.

Contador won prologues at Paris-Nice, Dauphiné and the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon already. And as you say got second in '09.

I don't think Cadel ever won prologues?

Ps: with prologues I just mean short time trials that take place on the first day and not the definition the UCI gives it.

 

[The Hitch]

Well, you're the one who thought that it was a myth while I brought up some actual results although this result concept might be alien to you as seen by your reply.

You need to apply some logic to the results though. Contador was young in 2007. He said even before the tt he expected to lose it. And in 2011 he was injured and heavily fatigued after you know what. That he limited his losses to Evans on the form of his life, to 1 minute shows just how great a tter he can be.

In 2010 Evans likewise was well out of it, no way can you take that result to suggest he is worse than Contador.

But Contador has won a Tour Itt in recent years. He has also been pretty solid in other tts he has done, winning many in smaller races, getting 4th in the Olympics, 3rd in the Giro, winning the uphill one, 6th in Tour prologue. 2nd to Cancellara in a pretty solid opening tt in Monaco. The results are just better than Evans ones.

BTW, I think if you were to add all those tt results (even if you select 2007 which imo is unfair because Contador was young), together, Contadors overall time would be better than Evans

 

[BillytheKid]

Lab coats generate the most drag.

 

[roundabout]

You need to apply some logic to the results though. Contador was young in 2007. (excuse) He said even before the tt he expected to lose it. And in 2011 he was injured and heavily fatigued after you know what. (excuse)That he limited his losses to Evans on the form of his life, to 1 minute shows just how great a tter he can be.

In 2010 Evans likewise was well out of it, no way can you take that result to suggest he is worse than Contador.

But Contador has won a Tour Itt in recent years. (so has Evans) He has also been pretty solid in other tts he has done, winning many in smaller races (none of them of Tour length), getting 4th in the Olympics (1-day TT), 3rd in the Giro, winning the uphill one (doesn't matter), 6th in Tour prologue (doesn't matter). 2nd to Cancellara in a pretty solid opening tt in Monaco. (doesn't matter)The results are just better than Evans ones.

BTW, I think if you were to add all those tt results (even if you select 2007 which imo is unfair because Contador was young)(excuse) , together, Contadors overall time would be better than Evans

You call it applying logic while I see excuses and bunch of examples that are beside the point.

 

[El Pistolero]

You call it applying logic while I see excuses and bunch of examples that are beside the point.

No, you're just using data from the past and not taking into account cyclists can improve.

Follow a statistics course on university or something. You might understand that there's more to it than just numbers.

 

[roundabout]

I haven't noticed much improvement in Contador's GT time trialing since 09. Infact I would say that 09 win is more of an anomaly.

 

[boomcie]

No, you're just using data from the past and not taking into account cyclists can improve.

Follow a statistics course on university or something. You might understand that there's more to it than just numbers.

Damn it, they taught me the exact opposite there.
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.

 

[The Hitch]

Contador won prologues at Paris-Nice, Dauphiné and the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon already. And as you say got second in '09.

I don't think Cadel ever won prologues?

Ps: with prologues I just mean short time trials that take place on the first day and not the definition the UCI gives it.

Well the Monaco won was way longer than a prologue, it also had a hill in it and those are the type of Prologues Contador likes.

the amsterdam tt which Cadel lost by 1 second in was pan flat, short with lots of corners.

 

[just some guy]

No, you're just using data from the past and not taking into account cyclists can improve.

Follow a statistics course on university or something. You might understand that there's more to it than just numbers.

and do worse - who won the last ITT at a grand tour between Evans and Contador - Evans

But but but Alberto was tired and beat up and road the Giro and everything - So as I said before Evans and Contador both very good ITT Top 6 in the world on a flat course top 4 on a hillier course at this moment - who is better depends on the day

 

[The Hitch]

You call it applying logic while I see excuses and bunch of examples that are beside the point.

The one Evans "won" was 4 years ago (5 years by next years TDF) and he came 2nd.

4 years ago is a long time. Maybe Gilberto Simoni will come out and start winning mountain stages again.

Contadors was more recent and more flat. He beat even Cancellara.

And a lot of what you say doesnt matter, does.

They are all tts and Contador is very consistant in them 16km tts have very similar palmares to 50k ones. Much of the top 10 was the same as the 40k one later including the top 2.

I dont see why we have to include tts from 4 years ago but cant include 1 from 2 years ago.

Another fault is that your stat gives Cadel 2 points purely for the fact that there were 2 tts in 2007. No one denies he was a better tter than Contador then. Just like Contador was a better tter than Cadel in 2009 but since there was only 1 tt Contador only gets 1 point.

Basically you devised the only score count that would give your man the lead. If we did it based on overall time in those tts, in tts of all lenghts, tts of all races Contador would win.

Btw even though his career has only been half as long, Contador has won more tts in his short career as Evans has in his long one.

Surely that tells you who the better tter is.

 

[The Hitch]

and do worse - who won the last ITT at a grand tour between Evans and Contador - Evans

But but but Alberto was tired and beat up and road the Giro and everything -

Your repeated use of but doesnt mock or degrade the reasoning behind it as much as you think.

The reasoning is sound, Contador went for the Giro and was off form for the Tour. Its something we see a lot of in cycling.

You might also want to factor in that Evans had more motivation as he was going for gc.


When Evans did the Giro and was beat up he also performed a lot worse in the tt.


He lost 5 minutes.

So as I said before Evans and Contador both very good ITT Top 6 in the world on a flat course top 4 on a hillier course at this moment - who is better depends on the day

Evans is only better than Contador when he is far fresher and bases his season around a race that Contador doesnt. Or when he was 29 and on peak and Contador was still young and learning.

When they both are on form Contador wins - see 2009 and when the rolles are reversed and Contador is on form and Evans isnt, Contador takes far more time out of Evans than Evans does out of Contador in the first scenario.

As you can see if you add up their tt times from 2010 and 2011.