How to read past ITT's to predict the future: Contador vs Evans

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Does every bloody TdF thread has to feature endlessly long and mostly pointless Contador vs. Evans/ some similar bloke discussions?

Can't someone make a thread for that?

 

[Francois the Postman]

Does every bloody TdF thread has to feature endlessly long and mostly pointless Contador vs. Evans/ some similar bloke discussions?

Can't someone make a thread for that?

I was just considering doing that... if people hold on for a few secs I will move some posts.

 

[The Hitch]

The title "Evans vs Contador, tts" with a poll would be preferable.

Only roundabout started to talk about reading past tts or something. Otherwise the discussion always was Contador vs Evans at tting.

 

[just some guy]

Your repeated use of but doesnt mock or degrade the reasoning behind it as much as you think.

The reasoning is sound, Contador went for the Giro and was off form for the Tour. Its something we see a lot of in cycling.

You might also want to factor in that Evans had more motivation as he was going for gc.


When Evans did the Giro and was beat up he also performed a lot worse in the tt.


He lost 5 minutes.



Evans is only better than Contador when he is far fresher and bases his season around a race that Contador doesnt. Or when he was 29 and on peak and Contador was still young and learning.

When they both are on form Contador wins - see 2009 and when the rolles are reversed and Contador is on form and Evans isnt, Contador takes far more time out of Evans than Evans does out of Contador in the first scenario.

As you can see if you add up their tt times from 2010 and 2011.

2009 the year Evans was mentally a basket case. And we all know how important the mental side is for Evans so I say you can't use that. Plus Contador gets a lot of drafting from the camera bike


I still say they are much more even than people will admit

 

[cineteq]

Evans is the best TTer of the 2 hands down. Proven in this year's TdF. Cased closed.

 

[Zoncolan]

On absolutely top form, I'd say Evans=Contador on flat long stuff.
On hilly stuff - Contador>Evans. The steeper it gets, the bigger the margin.
Overall, ITT wise, I'd say they're pretty evenly matched.
Of course a lot depends on the day, weather, etc.
If Contador is at his best, regardless of the lame parcours, it's his race to lose.

 

[Midnightfright]

Am I right in saying there talk of 20k of hilly TT and 60km of flat. If that is/ was the case what do people think total time references between the GC contenders would be?

 

[BroDeal]

Does every bloody TdF thread has to feature endlessly long and mostly pointless Contador vs. Evans/ some similar bloke discussions?

Can't someone make a thread for that?

For certain posters the entire sport is about whether Evans can luck out and win another Tour, but they do not want to admit that it was everyone else crashing out, a soft course, and a lot of luck. Hence the rest of us get subjected to the idiocy of them comparing Evans time trialing (and even climbing) to an injured and fatigued Contador.

 

[Zoncolan]

Am I right in saying there talk of 20k of hilly TT and 60km of flat. If that is/ was the case what do people think total time references between the GC contenders would be?

The gaps would be massive. Contador, Evans, Menchov, Wiggins all probably within 2 minutes or so, while the Schlecks would be down anywhere from 4-6 minutes. No way they could take that back in the mountains. Maybe Andy on top form from Wiggins, Menchov even, Evans - no way, Contador buahahahaha

 

[Francois the Postman]

Evans is the best TTer of the 2 hands down. Proven in this year's TdF. Cased closed.

That is one school of thought. The other is the one where context matters.

Even when people are in the same race, they will hardly ever be there at the same point on their career curve. It is also not a given that they are both there at the exact same level of fitness, ideally their peak. Or had the same level of support. Were equally rested. Or had the same material. Flat tire. Tummy bug. Weather. In-race motivational tweets by ACF to your GPS.

The science of cycling involves so many variables, it is mind-boggling, and those who talk most sense in the long run are probably those who are -on the whole- better at judging (or remembering) what the result actually meant on the day. Not what it appeared to be at face value.

I am glad no-one has figured out how to normalise the bewildering set of variables to get a true like-for-like data set. It would make these forums kinda dull, and it is always nice to hear other ways of seeing the same things.

 

[BillytheKid]

That is one school of thought. The other is the one where context matters......The science of cycling involves so many variables, it is mind-boggling, and those who talk most sense in the long run are probably those who are -on the whole- better at judging (or remembering) what the result actually meant on the day. Not what it appeared to be at face value.

I am glad no-one has figured out how to normalise the bewildering set of variables to get a true like-for-like data set. It would make these forums kinda dull, and it is always nice to hear other ways of seeing the same things.

Too true. The variables are many, but it would be fair to say that two the "flat" ITTs, particularly the 52K one, will greatly favor certain GC riders.

Out of that pool, it would be anyone's guess.

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

On absolutely top form, I'd say Evans=Contador on flat long stuff.
On hilly stuff - Contador>Evans. The steeper it gets, the bigger the margin.
Overall, ITT wise, I'd say they're pretty evenly matched.
Of course a lot depends on the day, weather, etc.
If Contador is at his best, regardless of the lame parcours, it's his race to lose.

Agreed. They are fairly evenly matched, and whoever comes out on top will come down to whoever has got the better legs and so on, on the day. Likely time differences aren't going to be huge.

 

[Angliru]

In 5 previous long time trials in the Tour it's 3-2 for Evans over Contador

I'd rate them fairly close overall but considering their difference in age I'd of course give Contador the edge with his potential to still improve over the course of the next couple of years.

 

[Havetts]

Contador fanboys vs Evans fanboys, watch this reach 200 pages..


Also, loving how everyone is all Evans won the tour thus he is the best. When Schlecks did jack all that tour and the rest who couldve won crashed out, lost time or did the Giro..

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Contador fanboys vs Evans fanboys, watch this reach 200 pages..


Also, loving how everyone is all Evans won the tour thus he is the best. When Schlecks did jack all that tour and the rest who couldve won crashed out, lost time or did the Giro..

the men from down under will be up soon.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't think it matters, because an on-form Contador would crush Evans in whatever pathetic excuse for mountain stages there are.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Contador fanboys vs Evans fanboys, watch this reach 200 pages..


Also, loving how everyone is all Evans won the tour thus he is the best. When Schlecks did jack all that tour and the rest who couldve won crashed out, lost time or did the Giro..

I'm a Contador fan, and I don't like Cadel, but after 2010 I just don't feel comfortable in saying Bertie's one of the top top guys in a 50km+ pan flat TT. I don't think Cadel is a top top guy either, but slightly better. I expect Wiggins to beat them both on the longer TT (30-45 seconds ish), and I the 3 to be similar on the first.

 

[User Guide]

Most of the major ITT results for Contador were 2008/9,when Contador crushed everybody in mountains and TT'd like spartacus.Those days in the tour are gone.Nobody is doing the performances of even 2009 now(clinic obviously).I still think Contador would be a heavy favourite for the Tour as his climbing is superior to anyone elses.He just wont be beating Wiggins/Evans with ease in TT's anymore.

 

[BroDeal]

the men from down under will be up soon.

What? We have not even seen the full strength tsunami of ridiculous comparisons and bogus logic yet? Oh, boy.

 

[El Pistolero]

Most of the major ITT results for Contador were 2008/9,when Contador crushed everybody in mountains and TT'd like spartacus.Those days in the tour are gone.Nobody is doing the performances of even 2009 now(clinic obviously).I still think Contador would be a heavy favourite for the Tour as his climbing is superior to anyone elses.He just wont be beating Wiggins/Evans with ease in TT's anymore.

Did you watch the Giro this year? Regardless of what you think of the competition the w/kg he pulled off there speak for them self.

 

[Angliru]

That is one school of thought. The other is the one where context matters.

Even when people are in the same race, they will hardly ever be there at the same point on their career curve. It is also not a given that they are both there at the exact same level of fitness, ideally their peak. Or had the same level of support. Were equally rested. Or had the same material. Flat tire. Tummy bug. Weather. In-race motivational tweets by ACF to your GPS.

The science of cycling involves so many variables, it is mind-boggling, and those who talk most sense in the long run are probably those who are -on the whole- better at judging (or remembering) what the result actually meant on the day. Not what it appeared to be at face value.

I am glad no-one has figured out how to normalise the bewildering set of variables to get a true like-for-like data set. It would make these forums kinda dull, and it is always nice to hear other ways of seeing the same things.

Shouldn't that be "In-race stalking-as-motivational tweets to your GPS"?

Seriously though I agree that there is always a bigger picture than just the results of the day or even the entire grand tour. So many variables come into play and its odd to me that such similar circumstances as Contador 2011 and Evans 2010 are often not taken into consideration by the some of the fans from both sides.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Shouldn't that be "In-race stalking-as-motivational tweets to your GPS"?

Seriously though I agree that there is always a bigger picture than just the results of the day or even the entire grand tour. So many variables come into play and its odd to me that such similar circumstances as Contador 2011 and Evans 2010 are often not taken into consideration by the some of the fans from both sides.

What is the excuse for 2010? It was windy later, so comparing to Fab & Tony is irrelevant, but Contador lost 2 minutes on a long flat TT to Wiggins & the Pope, who both started in similar conditions. (and yes, Cadel came last, but meh, I'm no fan of his).

 

[User Guide]

Did you watch the Giro this year? Regardless of what you think of the competition the w/kg he pulled off there speak for them self.

I did say those days in the Tour are gone.

 

[El Pistolero]

I did say those days in the Tour are gone.

If he's not banned and can focus on this Tour next season you'll see some nice things

Of course a few "what ifs", but cycling has always been unpredictable.

 

[The Hitch]

2009 the year Evans was mentally a basket case. And we all know how important the mental side is for Evans so I say you can't use that. Plus Contador gets a lot of drafting from the camera bike


I still say they are much more even than people will admit

I can give Evans some leniancy in the 2nd tt, though no way in hell would he have beaten Contador even on his best form ever, in Annency.

But there was a tt before that, the Monaco won, and Evans was in quite good form, but Contador still beat him. Not by much admitedly, but he did beat him.

I think the key here is that when Contador is having problems and loses a tt to Evans, he keeps it close.

When Evans is having problems and loses a tt to Contador, he finishes miles miles behind.