How to read past ITT's to predict the future: Contador vs Evans

[The Hitch]

Seriously though I agree that there is always a bigger picture than just the results of the day or even the entire grand tour. So many variables come into play and its odd to me that such similar circumstances as Contador 2011 and Evans 2010 are often not taken into consideration by the some of the fans from both sides.

No, its the fans of only 1 side that dont want to take those events into consideration.

I have always excused Evans for his 2010 Tour due to his great performances at the Ardennes and the Giro and then the injury.

But it suits some of those who take the Evans/ hate Contador side to claim that the circumstances dont matter.

Because Contador did the Giro this year, Evans did it last. They can then just troll "Evans is the best TTer of the 2 hands down. Proven in this year's TdF. Cased closed"
or something to that effect.

BTW this is not directed at the majority of those who take the Evans side, who do have some good arguments.

Just at those who claim that Evans is better purely because he won this year (or rather came 2nd to Martin) or that Evans is better because he beat Contador when Contador was still eligable for the white jersey, many many years ago.

 

[The Hitch]

Heres another score for Camp Contador

Stage 6, April 11, 2009: Zalla, 24 km (ITT)
Stage 6 results
Cyclist Team Time
1 Alberto Contador (ESP) Jersey yellow.svg Astana 31' 59"
2 Antonio Colom (ESP) Team Katusha + 22"
3 Samuel Sánchez (ESP) Jersey white.svg Euskaltel-Euskadi + 45"
4 Michael Rogers (AUS) Team Columbia-High Road + 45"
5 Luis León Sánchez (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne + 1' 13"
6 Marco Pinotti (ITA) Team Columbia-High Road + 1' 18"
7 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin-Slipstream + 1' 22"
8 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 1' 25"
9 Robert Gesink (NED) Rabobank s.t.
10 Damiano Cunego (ITA) Lampre-NGC + 1' 26"

Its these little battles where slightly better tt skills often prevail

 

[roundabout]

No, its the fans of only 1 side that dont want to take those events into consideration.

I have always excused Evans for his 2010 Tour due to his great performances at the Ardennes and the Giro and then the injury.

But it suits some of those who take the Evans/ hate Contador side to claim that the circumstances dont matter.

Because Contador did the Giro this year, Evans did it last. They can then just troll "Evans is the best TTer of the 2 hands down. Proven in this year's TdF. Cased closed"
or something to that effect.

BTW this is not directed at the majority of those who take the Evans side, who do have some good arguments.

Just at those who claim that Evans is better purely because he won this year (or rather came 2nd to Martin) or that Evans is better because he beat Contador when Contador was still eligable for the white jersey, many many years ago.

Bull****. If you don't have any relevant arguments the next best thing to do is grossly distort other people's posts, right?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

2010 anyone?

 

[Walkman]

Actually you are forgetting the 2005 one.

So its 4-2 Evans.

But while we are at it why not check if when Contador was a junior he didnt ride some of the tts as warmup. Then we can add some more points to the Cadel column.

BTW Vino also beat Contador in 2007 and 2005 and he beat Contador in 2010
That means Vino 3-0 Contador, ergo Vino is a better tter than Contador and will beat Contador next year.

Exactly the same logic.

Don't put words in other peoples mouth. He stated a fact, that Evans was one up on Contador in their last 5 encounters in the Tour. He, however, did not say that Evans was a better ITT:er. You invented your own silly logic and then tries to make him look bad...

I can only guess, but the reason for his post, I think was to show that there are some facts that may be in favour for Evans so the conclusion that Evans is a better ITT:er is not totally insane as you seems to imply.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Actually you are forgetting the 2005 one.

So its 4-2 Evans.

But while we are at it why not check if when Contador was a junior he didnt ride some of the tts as warmup. Then we can add some more points to the Cadel column.

BTW Vino also beat Contador in 2007 and 2005 and he beat Contador in 2010
That means Vino 3-0 Contador, ergo Vino is a better tter than Contador and will beat Contador next year.

Exactly the same logic.

Damn right he will!

 

[just some guy]

I can give Evans some leniancy in the 2nd tt, though no way in hell would he have beaten Contador even on his best form ever, in Annency.

But there was a tt before that, the Monaco won, and Evans was in quite good form, but Contador still beat him. Not by much admitedly, but he did beat him.

I think the key here is that when Contador is having problems and loses a tt to Evans, he keeps it close.

When Evans is having problems and loses a tt to Contador, he finishes miles miles behind.

I will give you some of a point for the fact that if Evans goes down he goes down hard.

But post WC Evans is a different beast and the Evans and Contador can´t be split at the moment camp re ITT hopes that next year they both come with form and most people will get the answer required

 

[The Hitch]

Bull****.

I dont even know what you are talking about.

I said that only the Evans side do not take into account the circumstances behind the tts.

To illustrate i quote 1 Evans side poster claiming that Evans is better because he won this year (ie not taking into account the circumstances behind it).

Show me a post where someone from the Contador side refuses to take into account the circumstances behind Evans 2010 defeat, which are the same.

If you don't have any relevant arguments the next best thing to do is grossly distort other people's posts, right?

Dont have any relevant arguments?

Contador winning more tts in his career, despite having a shorter career is not a relevant argument?

Contador beating Evans when they both came into the Tour fully prepared is not a relevant argument?

Contador keeping it close when he is off form, and crushing Evans when he is off form, is not a relevant argument?

Contador, if you add their tt times from TDFs they have faced eachother in, having a lower time, is not a relevant argument?

By the way that score is 2 minutes 59 seconds in Contadors favour.

In tts time matters more than position.

For instance if Evans is behind Contador 1 minute and 50 seconds and beats him in a tt, but only gets 1 minute and 30 seconds, the judges dont give Evans the overall just cos he beat Contador in the tt. He needs to get enough time.

SO in your count Evans has won 3-2 (counting 2 tts in 2007 when Contador was young). But in my count, Contador kept it close when he was disadvantaged, but when he was in the advantage, he crushed Evans.

And overall he wins by 3 minutes.

This is just taking in the "long" tts which you picked out yourself, which are actually skewed to Cadel. If we began to include Prologues and shorter tts at the Tour, Contadors lead would grow.

But oh wait, i "dont have any relevant arguments, right?"

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

2010 anyone?

Yeah, good point, how do you explain Contador's weak performance in the Dauphine & Tour ITTs that year, the only long pan flat ones he's had to do in a long time.

 

[El Pistolero]

Cadel Evans:

1st Individual Time Trial Commonwealth Games
1st stage 5 Tour de Romandie(ITT)

Contador:

1st stage 8 Tour de Pologne (ITT)
1st 5b Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 1 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 4 Volta ao Algarve (ITT)
1st stage 1 Paris-Nice (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st Spanish national champiom time trial
1st stage 18 Tour de France (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st prologue Criterium du Dauphiné
1st stage 3 Vuelta a Murcia (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 16 Giro d'Italia (ITT)

--

Yeah, Evans is clearly the better time trial specialist here

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah, good point, how do you explain Contador's weak performance in the Dauphine & Tour ITTs that year, the only long pan flat ones he's had to do in a long time.

I explain them as a year off, since either side of that hes put in very good performances at long pan flat tts in a gt.

in 2009, Annency he won. 2008 Vuelta, 4th (though it was at the beginning). 2008 Giro 2nd.

in 2011 3rd in Giro longish pan flat while celebrating. 3rd in hilly 1 hour TDF one.

So 3 gts before and the 2 gts since he has performed in the long flat tts.

Which suggests 2010 was below Contadors normal ability.

 

[The Hitch]

Cadel Evans:

1st Individual Time Trial Commonwealth Games
1st stage 5 Tour de Romandie(ITT)

Contador:

1st stage 8 Tour de Pologne (ITT)
1st 5b Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 1 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 4 Volta ao Algarve (ITT)
1st stage 1 Paris-Nice (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st Spanish national champiom time trial
1st stage 18 Tour de France (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st prologue Criterium du Dauphiné
1st stage 3 Vuelta a Murcia (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 16 Giro d'Italia (ITT)

--

Yeah, Evans is clearly the better time trial specialist here

Looking at that either the rider at the bottom has had a far far far longer career, or is a better time trial specialist.

Which one of the above would you say is the answer

 

[El Pistolero]

I explain them as a year off, since either side of that hes put in very good performances at long pan flat tts in a gt.

in 2009, Annency he won. 2008 Vuelta, 4th (though it was at the beginning). 2008 Giro 2nd.

in 2011 3rd in Giro longish pan flat while celebrating. 3rd in hilly 1 hour TDF one.

So 3 gts before and the 2 gts since he has performed in the long flat tts.

Which suggests 2010 was below Contadors normal ability.

Contador would have won the final time trial of the Giro in 2008 if it wasn't for the changing weather conditions, by far the best of the GT contenders(like Menchov in the Tour last year, but in that Giro there was no Cancellara or Martin of course)

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I explain them as a year off, since either side of that hes put in very good performances at long pan flat tts in a gt.

in 2009, Annency he won. 2008 Vuelta, 4th (though it was at the beginning). 2008 Giro 2nd.

in 2011 3rd in Giro longish pan flat while celebrating. 3rd in hilly 1 hour TDF one.

So 3 gts before and the 2 gts since he has performed in the long flat tts.

Which suggests 2010 was below Contadors normal ability.

We clearly have different ideas of long, and pan flat.

You really are taking the Michael using Annecy as an example of either a long or a flat TT. Milan was a good performance on a flat course, but by no means long (especially given he stopped trying after 20km) and quite technical rather than long flat straights.

I just want to see him do well on a 50Km flat dull TT, because I haven't seen it happen yet, and there's no obvious reason why he should be excused from the evidence of 2 attempts which were both weak.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Damn right he will!

*giggles*

 

[LaFlorecita]

2010 anyone?

Yeah, good point, how do you explain Contador's weak performance in the Dauphine & Tour ITTs that year, the only long pan flat ones he's had to do in a long time.

*facepalm*

 

[LaFlorecita]

Cadel Evans:

1st Individual Time Trial Commonwealth Games
1st stage 5 Tour de Romandie(ITT)

Contador:

1st stage 8 Tour de Pologne (ITT)
1st 5b Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 1 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st stage 4 Volta ao Algarve (ITT)
1st stage 1 Paris-Nice (ITT)
1st stage 6 Vuelta al Pais Vasco (ITT)
1st Spanish national champiom time trial
1st stage 18 Tour de France (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st prologue Criterium du Dauphiné
1st stage 3 Vuelta a Murcia (ITT)
1st stage 4 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (ITT)
1st stage 16 Giro d'Italia (ITT)

--

Yeah, Evans is clearly the better time trial specialist here

You forget that those results do not count because Evans didn't win.

 

[just some guy]

You forget that those results do not count because Evans didn't win.

and how many of those ITT was Evans riding.

to say 1 is better or they are the same you can only look at ITT where they competed and one was not injured

 

[Libertine Seguros]

and how many of those ITT was Evans riding.

to say 1 is better or they are the same you can only look at ITT where they competed and one was not injured

H2H on CQ: Contador 18-Evans 12
removing TTTs: Contador 16-Evans 11

 

[just some guy]

H2H on CQ: Contador 18-Evans 12
removing TTTs: Contador 16-Evans 11

By the way I´m not saying Evans is better I´m just saying this year and probably next they will be about the same level who is better on the day will win.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

By the way I´m not saying Evans is better I´m just saying this year and probably next they will be about the same level who is better on the day will win.

We just never know though. Contador will be 29, Evans 35. Evans is still a great rider, but how long can he keep up that kind of form against a Contador who is theoretically in his peak years, when he will theoretically be fading?

As I said at the time of the Tour, I thought Evans had missed the boat; his discovering the ability to go out there and grab results rather than wait for them to fall into his lap had come just too late for his physical peak and as a result he would be doomed to never win. But I was wrong. The circumstances fell right for him this year, but he was the one that made sure that if somebody was going to profit from luck, it was damn sure going to be him; I expected him to contend, but I didn't expect him to be as strong as he was. But was it the beginning of an Indian summer? Or was it the last hurrah of Evans' physical peak, which lasted just long enough?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans will crush Contador only any flat power time trial. More heavier and more powerful rider on the flat. IN a hilly tt it will be close but I still think Evans could come on top. CLearly this thread made by Hitch is to talk up one of his favourites to make him feel good about himself

 

[Woody22]

Should be talking abouy Evans v Wiggins.
Save the Evans v Contador talk for 2 years time when Contador may be on the starting ramp.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Should be talking abouy Evans v Wiggins.
Save the Evans v Contador talk for 2 years time when Contador may be on the starting ramp.

Stop that right now!

Also, Evans will be 37 by then, no way he'll be a top contender.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Should be talking abouy Evans v Wiggins.
Save the Evans v Contador talk for 2 years time when Contador may be on the starting ramp.

I agree with you but Alberto seems confident that he'll be there next year.