Giro d'Italia Il Giro d'Italia 2025: Who will win? Pre-race poll.

[Netserk]

I don't think the percentage of votes here can be seen as an actual win probability. If everyone agrees a rider is 60% likely to win a race, the result in this poll would be him getting 100% of the votes, while the odds would have him at a 60% chance.

Yep. For that, we'd have to make a poll about likelihood:

How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

We all agree that he can win the double, but how likely is he to pull it off?

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't think the percentage of votes here can be seen as an actual win probability. If everyone agrees a rider is 60% likely to win a race, the result in this poll would be him getting 100% of the votes, while the odds would have him at a 60% chance.

Good point. The poll result only is kinda estimation (it could have quite a large error)

 

[Cookster15]

Really seems a two man race. I still favour Roglic to win but this Giro will show us exactly what team leading potential Ayuso really has.

Looking at stage 20 over Finestre, has Ayuso ever excelled on mountains and stages in the 3rd week like that? Not enough data!

 

[kingjr]

Why don't you care?

I don't know, i'm just not really rooting for anybody. Basically just hoping for a close battle between whoever. Other than that, it's waiting for Dauphiné and TdF.

 

[Berniece]

I don't know, i'm just not really rooting for anybody. Basically just hoping for a close battle between whoever. Other than that, it's waiting for Dauphiné and TdF.

I understand what you mean. I like the lineup though, the best riders after TDF podium are here. Should give us an exciting race, even if you don't care who wins.

 

[Gratemans]

I understand what you mean. I like the lineup though, the best riders after TDF podium are here. Should give us an exciting race, even if you don't care who wins.

This. There's a pretty broad field of riders that could be kind of in the same ballpark strength wise. While at first glance the parcours might not seem spectacular, I also think there's a lot of opportunities for riders to take a chance.
I'm definitely excited for this Giro.
(And to those magnificent stage analyses of course)

 

[Extinction]

If Rog wins, then I hope we see him super at the Tour, with no crashes, and a propper battle with Pog and Vingo. But he has to come out of the Giro as did Pog last year, which comes down to talent.

 

[Red Rick]

Good point. The poll result only is kinda estimation (it could have quite a large error)

I am surprised by how much Rog wins the poll though. Not surprised about the odds.

I think Roglic always gets wildly underrated against the mortal opposition. Even in 2022 he was 3rd on PdbF with a broken back and on the way to 2nd in the Vuelta behind Evenepoel with a terrible run up. His floor is basically the top level of nearly everyone of these guys.

 

[Berniece]

I am surprised by how much Rog wins the poll though. Not surprised about the odds.

I think Roglic always gets wildly underrated against the mortal opposition. Even in 2022 he was 3rd on PdbF with a broken back and on the way to 2nd in the Vuelta behind Evenepoel with a terrible run up. His floor is basically the top level of nearly everyone of these guys.

Doesn’t the poll show he isn’t underrated?

 

[Red Rick]

Doesn’t the poll show he isn’t underrated?

I think Roglic fans are overrepresented on this forum.

 

[KZD]

I think this will be a two horse race between Red Bull and UAE as both of them have clearly the best teams and on paper the strongest leaders. I voted Roglic because he has won this race, its a good parcours for him with some punchy finishes and after what I saw in Catalunya, I believe he will be stronger than Ayuso who I still favour to get second and I don't see UAE as being strong enough to really hurt Roglic on this parcours. For third place, I will go with Tiberi, it would be a pretty important result for Italian cycling .

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I am surprised by how much Rog wins the poll though. Not surprised about the odds.

I think Roglic always gets wildly underrated against the mortal opposition. Even in 2022 he was 3rd on PdbF with a broken back and on the way to 2nd in the Vuelta behind Evenepoel with a terrible run up. His floor is basically the top level of nearly everyone of these guys.

Yup. Rogla wins almost all GT races not contested against Teddy or Skeletor so he should be #1 favourite by far. Other guys (like Ayuso) should still prove they can compete with him in a 3-week race.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

As to the title of this thread, I can't tell you who will win the pre-race poll, but you could win the Giro CQ manager game (but only if you submit your team before the race starts at 1:30 local time tomorrow)

 

[Blanco]

It's going to be decided between two best GT riders in this Giro, Roglic and Bernal. Ayuso 3rd at best,

 

[Cookster15]

I hope Bernal can push Roglic that would be great to see. Bernal is still only 28. Roglic is 35. There is hope.

 

[Bolder]

I am surprised by how much Rog wins the poll though. Not surprised about the odds.

I think Roglic always gets wildly underrated against the mortal opposition. Even in 2022 he was 3rd on PdbF with a broken back and on the way to 2nd in the Vuelta behind Evenepoel with a terrible run up. His floor is basically the top level of nearly everyone of these guys.

Agreed. But we've never seen him dominant in winning a GT. There's always something that doesn't go to plan for poor Primoz.

Hopefully Jai Hindley can have a strong race but he's been underwhelming since moving to Bora. This Giro Hindley will working in the services of Rogla again. So after winning the 2022 Giro convincingly with an amazing stage 20 climbing performance Hindley seems to have downgraded his ambitions to being a super domestique. Hindley was also improving his TT back then. Maybe he prefers less pressure.

Yeah, it's a bit weird. But it's not unprecedented. Winning a GT, unless you're Pog or Jonas (or Rog in the Vuelta...) requires that all the elements come together. The peloton is rife with former GT winners now working as stagehunters or superdoms. Partly because there's no path to winning one right now unless you're Pog or Jonas or Primoz -- so for Hindley/Yates/Bernal/Carapaz/GC Kuss, the alternatives are fight for a top 5 on a lesser team like Fdj or EF, without your own superdoms, or still get the big money/lower pressure as a superdom on a superteam...

 

[Cassirer]

After a few years of boring marvel cinema, in this giro two epic series will finally go into their next season:
The colombian supertalents destined to dominate GT racing - Nairo vs. Bernal
Mr. Grinta vs. BigStomp - Carapaz vs. Roglic
Podium consisting of 3/4 of these guys, obviously.

 

[Berniece]

Agreed. But we've never seen him dominant in winning a GT. There's always something that doesn't go to plan for poor Primoz.

What went wrong in the Vuelta of last year? Was quite dominant there.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I’m surprised any all the Bernal talk. I’d like nothing better for him to compete, but there’s no reason to believe he will. What am I missing?

 

[Netserk]

My final pre-race ranking:

* * * * * - Roglič
* * * * - A. Yates, Gee
* * * - Tiberi, Ayuso, Landa
* * - Carapaz, S. Yates, Bernal, Ciccone
* - Hindley, Fortunato, Storer, Del Toro, Arensman

 

[Berniece]

I’m surprised any all the Bernal talk. I’d like nothing better for him to compete, but there’s no reason to believe he will. What am I missing?

Nothing, people just love to see him compete again

 

[Devil's Elbow]

What went wrong in the Vuelta of last year? Was quite dominant there.

He was also dominant in the 2019 and especially 2021 Vueltas, that post makes no sense.

 

[Berniece]

My final pre-race ranking:

* * * * * - Roglič
* * * * - A. Yates, Gee
* * * - Tiberi, Ayuso, Landa
* * - Carapaz, S. Yates, Bernal, Ciccone
* - Hindley, Fortunato, Storer, Del Toro, Arensman

My 2 cents

* * * * * - Roglič
* * * * - Ayuso, A. Yates
* * * - Landa, Carapaz, Arensman
* * - Tiberi, Ciccone, S. Yates, Gee
* - Del Toro, Hindley, Bernal, Fortunato, Storer

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

My final pre-race ranking:

* * * * * - Roglič
* * * * - A. Yates, Gee
* * * - Tiberi, Ayuso, Landa
* * - Carapaz, S. Yates, Bernal, Ciccone
* - Hindley, Fortunato, Storer, Del Toro, Arensman

My 2 cents

* * * * * - Roglič
* * * * - Ayuso, A. Yates
* * * - Landa, Carapaz, Arensman
* * - Tiberi, Ciccone, S. Yates, Gee
* - Del Toro, Hindley, Bernal, Fortunato, Storer

I’ll go
***** Roglic
**** Ayuso, A Yates
*** Landa, Hindley
** Storer, Carapaz, Arensman, Gee, Tiberi, Ciccone
* S Yates, Bernal, Fortunato, Del Toro

 

[staubsauger]

Really seems a two man race. I still favour Roglic to win but this Giro will show us exactly what team leading potential Ayuso really has.

Looking at stage 20 over Finestre, has Ayuso ever excelled on mountains and stages in the 3rd week like that? Not enough data!

Albulapass says yes, Angliru says no!