Il Lombardia 2015, Oct 4th

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

A quick sneak at the odds also suggest that Valverde is the only real challenger for Nibali.

Odds are wrong more often than right.

I say Nibali won't top 5.

If odds are wrong more often that right, just go ahead and make those money.

Seriously, odds are the most accurate tool to determine x and y rider chances of winning. It's just how it works. If not, the odds setter would be out of job.

Odds are set as to not risk losing money etc, which is entirely different from correct odds of winning.

 

[mspgrandi]

Nibali is the overall favourite, anyone that say different does not understand cycling . IT is true that in one day racing anything can happen but

a) nibali is in form
b) This year lombardia is tough and 250km, civiglio ghisallo, sormano make it like an alpine stage
c) civiglio is 5km at 10% , surely more like an alpine climb than a LBL ...
d) when nibali is in form only froome contador quintana Valverde Aru can match him, possibly rui costa (but he has not repeated the 2013 feats)

whether he wins for sure it's a different statement

 

[mspgrandi]

Re: Re:

A quick sneak at the odds also suggest that Valverde is the only real challenger for Nibali.

Odds are wrong more often than right.

I say Nibali won't top 5.

If odds are wrong more often that right, just go ahead and make those money.

Seriously, odds are the most accurate tool to determine x and y rider chances of winning. It's just how it works. If not, the odds setter would be out of job.

Agreed but Nibali's classics palmeras doesn't live up to his reputation, there are several riders in this race with a better track record than Nibbles.

Classic palmares count for little, There isnt really a classic as hard as this year lombardia... and nibali has shown that he is the best on tough stages (bar contador froome quintana who are not starting)

 

[jens_attacks]

the only rivals to nibali tomorrow are landa and rosa if they are in super shape
so they could attack before him but it won't happen

martinelli already said in gazzetta that astana will keep it all together until civiglio where nibali will go

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

There are still: Gilbert, Wellens, Faria da Costa, Vuillermoz, Bardet, Landa, Ulissi, Gallopin, Slagter, Albasini, Visconti, Rosa, the Yates Bros, Moreno, Zakarin, Majka, Poels, Henao, Mollema, Colbrelli, Cunego, Gesink and Rebellin.

Most of this names ain't no weaker favorites than Nibali is. Some are outsiders, yes. But it looks like a wide open race, unless Valverde or one of the Astana guys (Nibali, Landa, Rosa) arrives in superb shape!

Yes they are. As far as favorites the difference between those guys and Valverde and Nibali in this race with this parcours is huge. Of course the actual race might prove this to be wrong and you forgot Pinot.

Explain to me why a rider who has one top 10 in this race is a bigger favourite than any of them?

You should ask this question to all the people who write about cycling for a living and to all the betting agencies. Maybe they will enlighten you because all of the above consider Nibali a far bigger favorite than any of those riders.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

the only rivals to nibali tomorrow are landa and rosa if they are in super shape
so they could attack before him but it won't happen

martinelli already said in gazzetta that astana will keep it all together until civiglio where nibali will go

Keep it all together the Astana way of course. Which means butchering the field most likely

 

[jens_attacks]

and yes the guys working for betting sites are experts. unless you believe ryo and how he made fortunes from cycling betting lol

 

[jens_attacks]

Re: Re:

the only rivals to nibali tomorrow are landa and rosa if they are in super shape
so they could attack before him but it won't happen

martinelli already said in gazzetta that astana will keep it all together until civiglio where nibali will go

Keep it all together the Astana way of course. Which means butchering the field most likely

for sure not anymore than 20 riders after sormano. and 5 astanas in it

 

[bala v]

Re:

Katusha will now pin their hopes to Moreno and Zakarin to deliver to them the UCI World Team overall victory

That's a pretty weak hope if you ask me, Valverde and maybe even Visconti will earn points for Movi, can't see Katusha topping them in this race...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

A quick sneak at the odds also suggest that Valverde is the only real challenger for Nibali.

Odds are wrong more often than right.

I say Nibali won't top 5.

If odds are wrong more often that right, just go ahead and make those money.

Seriously, odds are the most accurate tool to determine x and y rider chances of winning. It's just how it works. If not, the odds setter would be out of job.

Odds are set as to not risk losing money etc, which is entirely different from correct odds of winning.

Yes, odds are set to earn money, but if x rider is at odds 10 when his chances of winning are greater, say 25%, the odds will hover around 3.60-3.90 depending on high or low repayment rate instead of 10 and thus giving the best indication of how a race is gonna pan out. To state that odds are wrong more often than not (which basically means that if you have any knowledge on a sport, you would be able to exploit betting companies and earn yourself millions upon millions of dollars) is just wrong since the odds needs to 1) keep customers interesting with fair odds (90%-95% repayment) and 2) be extremely accurate on judging possibilities on x happening since if they are not, they will theoretically loose in the long run

So yes, I dont know what is more accurate out there than odds if your a going to determine who stands the best chances of winning, finishing in top-10 etc. etc. objectively. I

 

[Red Rick]

I think Nibali is the big favourite now, Valverde has been going downhill since the start of the Vuelta

 

[Tonton]

FWIW, Odds:

Paddypower Sport: Nibali 7/2, Valverde 9/2, Majka 14/1, Pinot 16/1, Costa/Wellens/Martin 18/1
Sports Power: Nibali 9/2, Pinot 12/1, Wellens 18/1, Martin 20/1
Sports Iron Bet: Nibali 5.5, Pinot 13/1, Wellens 19/1, Martin 21/1

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

That's a pretty weak hope if you ask me, Valverde and maybe even Visconti will earn points for Movi, can't see Katusha topping them in this race...

Moreno maybe, Zakarin no way, but I do not believe Moreno will do enough result to beat movistar without even considering where valverde will finish, it is 6th place worst I think or simillar moreno should do extra performance on that result

 

[Flamin]

Majka says he didn't have good sensations in Milano-Torino. Scary.

 

[staubsauger]

Re:

Majka says he didn't have good sensations in Milano-Torino. Scary.

When he does talk like this he normally is about to do big things.

 

[Pippo_San]

Re:

and yes the guys working for betting sites are experts. unless you believe ryo and how he made fortunes from cycling betting lol

I miss the good old times

 

[DBotero]

Re:

No Purito in Lombardia

- Yesterday morning, before leaving for Italy, I was doing a last training behind a motorbike. Just when I dropped from the motorbike, I did not notice a traffic sign post and hit it with my right knee. I did not crash but immediately I felt a lot of pain. Fortunately I was not far away from home and I managed to arrive home by bike. In the evening, after my arrival in Italy, the pain was getting worse. My knee was swollen. It was even getting hard for me to walk. It is just impossible to race now. This is a real bummer. I was really motivated for this race, – said Joaquim Rodriguez.

Just read about it.*** this I was so confident he'll win it.I don't see Valverde strong enough to do anything,Astana will destroy the field.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Majka says he didn't have good sensations in Milano-Torino. Scary.

When he does talk like this he normally is about to do big things.

Just like Oman this year?

 

[jsem94]

Sucks that Purito is out. Contador should have been in this race honestly.

 

[sir fly]

When someone's so open about their intentions, as Astana's been during the last week, it often doesn't end according to plan.
Reminds me on the northern classics pattern with Astana in the steppers' shoes.

 

[Fernandez]

Valverde to win his second monument of the year.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I hope for a different name than the usual suspects like Valverde, Gilbert, Nibali etc

Wellens, Dumoulin, Rosa or Chaves would be cool.

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

Odds are set as to not risk losing money etc, which is entirely different from correct odds of winning.

yes
which in turn reflect who they think is the favourite to win the race, based on palmares,type of race.....

it looks like a loop

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I hope for a different name than the usual suspects like Valverde, Gilbert, Nibali etc

Wellens, Dumoulin, Rosa or Chaves would be cool.

I wanted a Nibali win but now that he's the favorite, favoring for him would be lame
So I'm going with wellens

 

[manafana]

yeah was thinking oh Nibali has chance to do something here and then bang he is favorite for it.