Il Lombardia 2021 (October 9th)

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

In this year of fairy tales maybe Remco takes it as compensation for last year. DQS brings an insane squad but I still have my money on the Slovenians - in normal circumstances I would take Pog for this kind of route, but Rogla seems in spectacular form right now.

 

[noob]

I mean so many of the favorites are either in bad/soso form or questionable descenders.

But let's just hope it's Dan Martin, as that would be spectacular

 

[tobydawq]

I mean so many of the favorites are either in bad/soso form or questionable descenders.

But let's just hope it's Dan Martin, as that would be spectacular

Who are questionable descenders apart from Remco?

 

[noob]

Who are questionable descenders apart from Remco?

Honestly I don't count Remco to those anymore as he dropped Almeida twice on the descent. But I would say Roglič, Almeida, Vingegaard are three.

Pog in shape is as good as the Van guys. Valverde is good but out of shape.

Guillaume Martin keeps his black cape on and loses speed. Steve Urkel is too tiny, bit like Vingegaard.

And I don't know enough of the rest. I was never around when Nibali was good. So all those not spectacular this year I am completely clueless about

And I should add I am not even thinking of winners, but podium. I have absolutely no idea of who will even podium.

 

[noob]

Maybe there will be a whole bunch at the last climb and then it's all down to the descent

 

[BlueRoads]

Honestly I don't count Remco to those anymore as he dropped Almeida twice on the descent. But I would say Roglič, Almeida, Vingegaard are three.

Pog in shape is as good as the Van guys. Valverde is good but out of shape.

Guillaume Martin keeps his black cape on and loses speed. Steve Urkel is too tiny, bit like Vingegaard.

And I don't know enough of the rest. I was never around when Nibali was good. So all those not spectacular this year I am completely clueless about

And I should add I am not even thinking of winners, but podium. I have absolutely no idea of who will even podium.

Roglic in general is a very good descender, just not a reliable one.
Almeida in general doesn't seem a bad descender, so I don't know what was going on there, think I didn't watch the race you mean.
Nibali is a spectacularly good descender, but even he takes too much risk sometimes... that's probably the thing, if you know you're good at it and can gain time there you will be seduced to do that, while the average ones just hang on...

 

[Red Rick]

Form wise Roglic should be the heavy favorite, but he has underperformed in monuments in weekends compared to in the middle of that same week, and I think his sprint is much stronger uphill than a false flat downhill.

 

[BlueRoads]

But honestly I don't think the descending qualities will play much of a role, this little something towards the end and the rest of flat are just too much of a cookie for the ones who go for it.

 

[tobydawq]

Honestly I don't count Remco to those anymore as he dropped Almeida twice on the descent. But I would say Roglič, Almeida, Vingegaard are three.

Pog in shape is as good as the Van guys. Valverde is good but out of shape.

Guillaume Martin keeps his black cape on and loses speed. Steve Urkel is too tiny, bit like Vingegaard.

And I don't know enough of the rest. I was never around when Nibali was good. So all those not spectacular this year I am completely clueless about

And I should add I am not even thinking of winners, but podium. I have absolutely no idea of who will even podium.

Roglic a questionable descender?? Maybe rewatch his stage in the 2018 Tour... Okay, he crashed in PN and in the Vuelta so I guess there is a little bit to it but if he stays upright he is as fast as anyone.

Also, I don't think Valverde is out of shape.

But I do know that this start list is crazy!!

 

[noob]

Roglic in general is a very good descender, just not a reliable one.
Almeida in general doesn't seem a bad descender, so I don't know what was going on there, think I didn't watch the race you mean.
Nibali is a spectacularly good descender, but even he takes too much risk sometimes... that's probably the thing, if you know you're good at it and can gain time there you will be seduced to do that, while the average ones just hang on...

Almeida lost time on every descent in Emilia and regained it on the climbs. I was completely surprised as I had never seen him do that before either. But I have also never seen him crash so maybe he's just more careful than the others. It was seriously weird he got back on the climbs though. It was not by a lot, but enough that he couldn't podium had it finished downhill.

Yes Rogla is risky. He's built on adrenaline.

But as you say maybe the last descent or false flat doesn't count.

 

[noob]

Roglic a questionable descender?? Maybe rewatch his stage in the 2018 Tour... Okay, he crashed in PN and in the Vuelta so I guess there is a little bit to it but if he stays upright he is as fast as anyone.

Also, I don't think Valverde is out of shape.

But I do know that this start list is crazy!!

I can't help but seeing Roglič as addicted to his own adrenaline. It doesn't make him angry or anything, adrenaline is so much more. I just recognize it in him as he is so high on life and adventure. He's the cycling Yolo. And all of that means risks, because the thrill is also from danger.

It's just what I see in him. It's not uncommon in athletes at all. He just got extra lol. And also why everyone loves him. Why not, eh?

 

[greyclouds]

Roglic a questionable descender?? Maybe rewatch his stage in the 2018 Tour... Okay, he crashed in PN and in the Vuelta so I guess there is a little bit to it but if he stays upright he is as fast as anyone.

Also, I don't think Valverde is out of shape.

But I do know that this start list is crazy!!

He is not a questionable descender, necessarily, but he likes to risks and, perhaps because he got into the sports later, he might not have the best handling skills around. Remember a Vuelta stage this year where he almost crashed and lost the precious seconds he had gained in the ascent?

 

[Sciatic]

Only one U.S. rider (Lemond 1983) has ever been on the podium for Lombardia. Nelson Powless would not be a favorite for the win, but if he still has some of his good form from a few weeks ago and can get into a strong break . . .maybe a shot at a podium?

 

[Sciatic]

He is not a questionable descender, necessarily, but he likes to risks and, perhaps because he got into the sports later, he might not have the best handling skills around. Remember a Vuelta stage this year where he almost crashed and lost the precious seconds he had gained in the ascent?

I thought we came to the conclusion at the time that he was a decent descender but a really good crasher, given his ski jumping background

 

[Sciatic]

In this year of fairy tales maybe Remco takes it as compensation for last year. DQS brings an insane squad but I still have my money on the Slovenians - in normal circumstances I would take Pog for this kind of route, but Rogla seems in spectacular form right now.

I think Valverde would be the good fairy tale winner, after having finished 2nd three times here.

 

[tobydawq]

He is not a questionable descender, necessarily, but he likes to risks and, perhaps because he got into the sports later, he might not have the best handling skills around. Remember a Vuelta stage this year where he almost crashed and lost the precious seconds he had gained in the ascent?

Yes that was the Vuelta crash I referred to. And he did crash, not only almost.

But he has good bike handling, he just risks a lot, I agree.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Roglic the big favourite here, but the finish doesn't scream biggest favourites win... there could be some serious tactical play at work.
Evenepoel with a long range attack is a possibility, but he would really have to be extremely strong, since everybody will be on his wheel.
Pogacar - well, who would dare do count Pogacar out.
And then there's a bunch of riders who can win this.

Going by stage profile there is only one section on the course that's ideal for him to do a trademark attack to open up a sizeable gap, and i think it's too far from the finish. The murito before the finish isn't in his advantage to attack, he should be solo by that point. I don't easily see him ride away on Ganda, or not by enough especially with the descent that follows.

 

[CyclistAbi]

NO risk, NO glory. – Primož Roglič

www.primozroglic.com

 

[Red Rick]

NO risk, NO glory. – Primož Roglič

www.primozroglic.com

Life goals: being able to sell tshirt based on random quotes of mine

Could easily spell Roglic vertically there with the R and the G already in there

 

[Rackham]

Life goals: being able to sell tshirt based on random quotes of mine

Could easily spell Roglic vertically there with the R and the G already in there

RISK
OLYMPICS
GOLD
LIEGE (LOMBARDIA?)
ITZULIA
CERVEZA

Yep.

 

[topcat]

Remco to attack early. Jumbo and UAE to burn most of their teams reeling him in. Only Formolo and my cousin Vinnie left to help Podge and Rodge. They set an insane pace on the Ganda to try to drop the real favourite Alaphillipe. Nibali to look bored with all the histrionics and nonchalantly outsprint Ala for the wheel.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Realistically something of a longer range will likely be required to win this race. Considering cyclist will likely be a bit reserved. Hard to predict the outcome.

 

[Big Doopie]

Going by stage profile there is only one section on the course that's ideal for him to do a trademark attack to open up a sizeable gap, and i think it's too far from the finish. The murito before the finish isn't in his advantage to attack, he should be solo by that point. I don't easily see him ride away on Ganda, or not by enough especially with the descent that follows.

agreed.

zambla alta provides a good launch pad. he has a tendency to attack right after the major effort has been made, sometimes on a false flat, when he sees his competitors at the limit. his strength/advantage appears to be his ability to hold a high intensity effort for longer than most, while not having the abrupt punch to drop them otherwise. The last bit of zamba alta would perhaps provide that possibility, however, it is far to go, particularly if other favorites still have teammates.

i would be very surprised if the main battle does not start early, however.

 

[Leinster]

I think Remco will have to ride smarter than usual to win this. If he can’t ride Colbrelli off his wheel, he won’t be able to do that to Roglic, Pogacar, Yates, Gaudu, Vingo etc either.

Where he has an advantage is none of those guys will want to tow Alaf or Almeida to Bergamo. If the selection is small enough, and he makes his move solo, he can maybe stay away.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Guillaume Martin keeps his black cape on and loses speed. Steve Urkel is too tiny, bit like Vingegaard.

I have obviously missed the introduction of some in-joke recently. Who is Steve Urkel?