Immaturity will be Contador's downfall...

[Publicus]

Even among the GC contenders that's a bit of a stretch. I think over a 40K TT for example Cadel and LL and possibly even AK are better than AC. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that he's a bad TT'er, but I wouldn't go as far as to call hiim the best among the contenders (see Vuelta 2008). I think the ITT in week 3 will be very telling. I think this race is way from over and it's not even a 2 horse race (AC v. LA). It's very possible we could get to the ITT with all the Astanas within 1:30-2:00 of each other and that could make for some very interesting racing. I would love to see AC, LA, LL, AK all within 2 mins of each other by the ITT and just have a shootout then and on the Ventoux. We need a kamikaze attack on Stage 17 a la FLandis in 06 (well, without the testosterone though) with 4 cat 1 climbs and a cat 2 and the Colombiere only 14K from the finish, I would love to see someone just say to hell with this and go balls out. But then again you have the ITT the next day so I don't know who would do it (hence the kamikaze so they wouldn't give a ****)

Sorry I when I said GC contenders I meant Sastre, Evans, Schleck. And I agree, this race is far from over. Frankly I think factors will intervene to clarify once and for all the leadership issue with Astana. Andy Schleck looks strong in the mountains and he needs to pick up a ton of time before the ITT.

 

[Padeiro]

What I said in response to your implication that Lance could have chased him down but held back is that even if Lance wanted to chase him down, I don't think he could.

Why do people keep making this argument? This is very subjective, there is no way in hell to know whether LA could have followed or not. Strategically, he couldn't chase down Contador, that woulda been stupid. Maybe he could have closed down the gap, maybe not. If he didn't try it, you honestly cannot say that it's because he COULDN'T. That's just conjecture.

Honestly, I don't think you can say that LA should ride for AC because of how stage 7 ended and I don't think you can make the argument that AC should ride for LA because of Stage 3 or whatever. For chrissakes, they are separated by 2 friggin seconds. Unless someone drops the other and puts in 2 mins this is all BS at this point. Part of me just wishes that JB could say to hell with the teamwork BS and just have a shootout (which we might get in week 3 anyway so I will continue to hope)

 

[Publicus]

Why do people keep making this argument? This is very subjective, there is no way in hell to know whether LA could have followed or not. Strategically, he couldn't chase down Contador, that woulda been stupid. Maybe he could have closed down the gap, maybe not. If he didn't try it, you honestly cannot say that it's because he COULDN'T. That's just conjecture.

Honestly, I don't think you can say that LA should ride for AC because of how stage 7 ended and I don't think you can make the argument that AC should ride for LA because of Stage 3 or whatever. For chrissakes, they are separated by 2 friggin seconds. Unless someone drops the other and puts in 2 mins this is all BS at this point. Part of me just wishes that JB could say to hell with the teamwork BS and just have a shootout (which we might get in week 3 anyway so I will continue to hope)

I made the argument that he was brought to Astana as its GC leader not based on Stage 7. Lance decided he wanted to return to cycling with a team that had a GC leader. That's his fault not Alberto's. Until Alberto falters, then its his team. Why is that so hard for folks to understand?

As for my opinion, it's only informed by what I have witnessed. For example in Stage 7, watch how long it takes Lance to get to Schleck's wheel after Contador attacks. He couldn't match Schleck's acceleration. Why would you think he could match Contador's? I think LA has a big engine still and will do some damage on the 40KM ITT, but in the mountains he's no match for Contador. Restraining Contador on his favored terrain is like asking LA to hold back on a ITT.

 

[richwagmn]

contador doesn't speak english and you rarely see him next to lance talking or anything. so I don't think there was any talk about, hey ride up the road I got your back. It was a young rider doing something stupid.

It was a young rider doing something brilliant. LA's been after the yellow jersey since the TTT.

Look at the pace of stage 7. That wasn't a let a guy 2 minutes on us pace. That was a lets get a yellow jersey for LA. JB apparently wasn't pleased with the pace.

AC blew the plan for LA. AC has help coming from Sanchez and others. He'll now start behind LA on the ITT and know his splits which gives a good advantage in the ITT.

It probably goes to Ventoux. JB said if LA and AC are the only two real contendors, they can go at each other. That's only fair. Isn't that what LA wants anyways? Hasn't he always said the strongest man should win? Or was that another line of BS from LA?

Remember, Contador won't be with this team come next year. He's after one thing. A TDF win. Astana, JB and LA be damned if need be. Shows some real balls if you ask me and some genuine leadership.

To be a great champion, you have to have the win at almost any cost attitude. I think we're seeing that from AC. It's ruffling LA's feathers but so what? You don't think AC will be a hero to many other tour riders if he takes down LA? He'll be a giant.

 

[racerralph]

The problem I have and I guess its all the team sports I have played. You don't go against your coach. Now if Johan and the entire team said Contador had the green light in stage 7 I would be right here saying that Armstrong should work for second place. But since the kid went off on his own I have a problem with is actions.

Interesting point you bring up. Team sports mentality. I grew up with baseball, football, hockey and basketball. But as I got a little older, I began to Love ski racing, tennis and bicycle racing. Sports where you answer only to your own standards.
Your admitting to having a team sport head is something that many of Contador's critic's won't own up to. Because while this is a team oriented sport. Some of it's greatest stars have stood out either without great team support, or in the face of rivalries inside the same team. At it's core, it is a very individual sport, because when it comes down to the last 100 meters, or the top of the mountain, it's what's in the riders gut that separates the winners from the rest.
But, one thing I remember observing early on in Lance's era, was that once Lance wore the Maillot Jaune, Ullrich or Beloki, or Basso essentially became his teammates. How? through the sheer fact that if they couldn't get away from him, they would never make up the time they had already lost. So, in essence he never had to beat them in another stage, so long as he didn't let them gap him by too much, or at all.
And I think Contador might have learned this lesson from Lance also. Especially after Lance twitter-scolded him about staying cool under fire after his Paris-Nice Bonk/Loss. Now, AC only need keep his eyes on his own ambitious teammate, and continue seizing opportunities as they present themselves, in ITT's and Mountain top finishes, and he will be the TdF champion for 2009.

 

[Padeiro]

I made the argument that he was brought to Astana as its GC leader not based on Stage 7. Lance decided he wanted to return to cycling with a team that had a GC leader. That's his fault not Alberto's. Until Alberto falters, then its his team. Why is that so hard for folks to understand?

As for my opinion, it's only informed by what I have witnessed. For example in Stage 7, watch how long it takes Lance to get to Schleck's wheel after Contador attacks. He couldn't match Schleck's acceleration. Why would you think he could match Contador's? I think LA has a big engine still and will do some damage on the 40KM ITT, but in the mountains he's no match for Contador. Restraining Contador on his favored terrain is like asking LA to hold back on a ITT.

Alberto faltered in Stage 3 when he wasn't paying attention but that didn't mean that LA was the team leader. AC gained time on LA on Stage 7 but that doesn't mean he's the team leader because again, only 2 secs separate them. I just think it's ingenuous to argue that given Contador's attack on Stage 7 he should lead the team. Same thing you can't say given LA staying in the front group on Stage 3 he should lead the team. There hasn't been a decisive act either way.

Maybe Lance couldn't have matched AC acceleration, but who's to say that if he could have chased him down he couldn't have caught him? I think that AC accelerates like a demon but he doesn't build on that, he doesn't gain time increasingly. It's probable that he'll create a gap which can still be closed with time. And it's probable that if Lance could have had free reign to chase him down, AC would not have gained 21 seconds on him and Lance would still be ahead of him. We will never know.

Also, I don't think you can say that because Contador had been declared the leader before Lance joined the team, Lance should cede to him. That's like saying Basso should have ceded to Levi when he joined Disco after Levi had been signed as the team leader (forget OP for the sake of argument). The rider that is stronger will win, right now, objectively, we cannot definitively say it's one or the other. With time we can. I know a lot of people are writing off Lance but I'm not going to be one of them just yet. The side of the road is littered with the corpses of people who thought that d**khead was an easy kill. Just ask Beloki, Ulrich, Mayo, Pantani et al.

 

[nedhoey]

If AC and LAs competition gets out of hand soon, they could both lose. I think they would do well to remember that. I think JB does, LA does too, AC, I'm not so sure. Both guys need a unified team all the way to Paris.

AC bolted in bid to get the YJ and missed because of the wind. These two could remain 2 secs apart for a week. The Tourmalet is too far from the finish to
change things.

 

[unsheath]

Everyone kicks up a stink because a team leader outrides all other GC riders including his 2nd best team mate on a mountain top finish?

Grand Tour Rule 1: If you have any chance to gain time on your rivals, do so.

If there was no Armstrong in the tour and it was Levi 18 seconds up, no one would be having a problem with the Contador ride. In fact, we'll be applauding him for taking 21 sec on a moderate grade finish and increasing the deficit to his rivals.

Getting 2 sec in front of LA was the smartest thing he could have ever done. Imagine the outrage if Alberto had attacked the LA maillot jaune on stage 15 despite being the superior rider. No chance now being ordered to tow the team line and prevented from attacking if you've got the jersey yourself. Self preservation is a wonderful thing. Bravo pistol!!

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Ok...it took me a while to read through all the posts and catch up - nearly 3 bottles of Heineken.

The thread title is..
"Immaturity will be Contador's downfall...and will be the key factor for his losing of the tour..."

Certainly Contador is impetuous and he isn't as savvy as Lance, but in my opinion his is not immature. He does need a strong hand and a good DS to guide him.

This takes me to where the thread is now- team tactic's.
JB should be doing cartwheels because he is so happy at where his team is in the race - but he's not!
Lance following the move on stage 3 was astute and good for Team Astana,
Alberto's attack on stage 7 was good for Team Astana - having two contenders nicely ahead of the other GC contenders.

But Alberto's attack was not good for Team Lance.

If Alberto goes along with his DS's team tactics then that "will be the key factor for his losing the tour"

 

[Mellow Velo]

Bobby Drivel..

Guckin Fenius.. Who made that up.. ?

I'll hold my hand up.
Right after his very first post on Floyd.
Admittedly, as it was early days, rather cryptic version.
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=55&page=2

One of Bobby's finest efforts.

All this endless debate exposes is the fanboy's insecurity over their unbeatable one's ability to remain unbeaten.
Taking an early yellow and taxing the team, which hasn't happened, was never a problem when Uncle Lance was in his prime.
It's now being trotted out as a piece of essential strategy. The key to overall victory.
Quite obviously, on this watery course, it makes no difference.
They just can't stand the idea of a better rider on the same team, sitting in the protected position they have already mentally reserved for their loved one.

 

[Padeiro]

Everyone kicks up a stink because a team leader outrides all other GC riders including his 2nd best team mate on a mountain top finish?

Grand Tour Rule 1: If you have any chance to gain time on your rivals, do so.

If there was no Armstrong in the tour and it was Levi 18 seconds up, no one would be having a problem with the Contador ride. In fact, we'll be applauding him for taking 21 sec on a moderate grade finish and increasing the deficit to his rivals.

Getting 2 sec in front of LA was the smartest thing he could have ever done. Imagine the outrage if Alberto had attacked the LA maillot jaune on stage 15 despite being the superior rider. No chance now being ordered to tow the team line and prevented from attacking if you've got the jersey yourself. Self preservation is a wonderful thing. Bravo pistol!!

Again, I dont think we have a #1 and an #2 rider, I think it's still very much 1A and 1B. Again, it's 2 secs. And to your Levi point, with all due respect to LL, he is not Lance and so you cannot equate AC attacking LA for 21 secs, to him attacking Lance for said 21 secs. Now, it's possible that Lance might get his **** whopped on Sunday, or Tuesday, or Friday, or whenever, but I think it would be wise for people to not write him off as easily as they are. And to the maillot jaune issue, even though Contador might wear yellow first, if he is just a handful of seconds ahead of LA, I cannot see JB saying that LA should support Contador if the status quo holds. It's 2 secs!! I would say anything short of a minute before the ITT and Contador would be wise to watch his back. Then again, Lance could lose 10 minutes before then, who the hell knows! Which is precisely my point about annointing either one of them team leader just yet.

 

[rhubroma]

What a load of BS. Contador did what the strongest rider was supposed to do. Everything else is just whining cause Lance isn't the best anymore.

 

[Darrylc]

I used to be a huge fan of Lance Armstrong, not any more. Alberto missed out last year to defend his title because he made the mistake of joining Astana, they then employed Lance Armstrong. Alberto should have been the leader of Astana. Lance is using his fame and influence in making Contador the outsider of Astana. Lance will lose fans and respect for this treatment. I hope that this is not doing Alberto's confidence any harm. Alberto should never have been put in this position, he has earned the right not to have to be Lance's back up. Astana should never have employed both.

 

[subzro]

Contador's downfall?

Surely you're not serious? Are we watching the same race?

Contador started this race as overwhelming favorite, and only got better as the race has gone on. Lance started as one of the favorites and appears he will come up a bit short, as expected. And Schleck, Evans et al have had their chances masacered in the TTT.

It's all over, I said he would have to fall to lose three weeks ago. Now, I think he would have to be sabotaged to lose!

 

[Darrylc]

Just another typical example of how LA can do no wrong, and how AC is out to try and win the tour for himself.

Ummmm, duh, no sheet.

But lets reverse everything, if AC gained time on stage 3, with his teamates driving it home and LA going by himself yesterday and gaining time. Well the media/fanboys would be having a field day, Stage 3 would be selfish AC tries to hurt LA by driving the pace with his teammates, and Stage 7 would be LA true tour hero, the class of the field would be the media headlines.

LA was my hero, and I was firmly behind him for his seven victories. But this whole thing is really making me gag on the BS being spewed by LA and the media. Sorry LA, you quit and left, AC then became the man and IS the man now. Alot of this is just making me feel like your tarnishing your reputation. I truely hope that AC goes out and annihilates you ever chance he gets now.

Your ego has truely grown bigger then your skills, very very sad. You want a grand tour triple winner and THE team leader to bow down before you just because you decide to come back, and when he shows his skills, you play the media spin to make it sound like he's a crappy teammate. But when you do it, you make AC sound like an amateur because "He should have been more aware". Give me a break dood.

Agreed 100%. Like I said, I was also a big Lance fan, and completely supported him. Since he retired Alberto has become my favourite rider, as he is the most talented out there. Lance has now become an over egotistical idiot and is using his fame to make out that Alberto is the man in the wrong. I really hope that Alberto shows why he wins grand tours, and that he should never be asked to support Lance Armnolongerstrong.

 

[elapid]

I think if he had taken off with 10k to go the Tour would effectively be over today. He's the best ITT and the best climber. Who could have kept up with him?

If he had gone earlier, I would suspect that he would have been covered by the likes of Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans. They both have the talent, and Andy has a similar riding style. The headwind would have probably killed him if he went at 10 km. His best opportunity was to go when he did considering the grade, counterattack, and headwind.

 

[elapid]

Oh my god! lol you are a contador fanboy! Contador disobeyed team goals for the stage. Contador only changed time from his biggest threats his teammates. Yes I know he won 3. One was handed to him. The Giro the debate is open on the level of riders that ride the giro and the fitness levels they are at. A guy 4 years out of cycling with a healing collar bone finished 12th just 15 minutes off the lead. Pretty good for an old man that's riding 8 seconds off the yellow jersey. In armstrongs 7 wins the entire team knew that they were riding for Lance and they rode the race to help lance win. No individual goals in the month of july for any of the riders.

Until Contador starts acting like a professional and obeys team tactics for a race then he might get some respect from come cycling fans. Armstrong was playing a teammate because he didn't ride after contador when he took off to attack his team!

Contador did not act against team tactics. Other than Lance's statements, where is the evidence that Contador did not obey team tactics? I have quoted Bruyneel often in this thread, but again:

1. "The stage decided who was the strongest. This morning, we didn't give any specific instructions. I just told them [Contador and Armstrong] to talk to each other, and do what they have to do. Alberto was strong; he is a great climber and there are three summit finishes at this Tour. So this was one of his possibilities today."

2. “We didn’t have a specific plan to attack, our plan was to maintain our collective strength first and wait for attacks from the others. Alberto counter-attacked after an attack, our plan had been for the riders to communicate and respond. I had no race radio at that time or TV, so it was something they decided themselves."

Contador did not disobey team orders and proved he is the strongest rider in Astana. He did what any team leader and GC contender should do - make time gains on his rivals when the opportunity arises. Armstrong is probably his biggest rival, but it is too early to rule out the likes of Schleck, Sastre and Evans.

 

[issoisso]

If he had gone earlier, I would suspect that he would have been covered by the likes of Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans. They both have the talent, and Andy has a similar riding style. The headwind would have probably killed him if he went at 10 km. His best opportunity was to go when he did considering the grade, counterattack, and headwind.

+1

Very much agreed.

 

[Izoard]

If he had gone earlier, I would suspect that he would have been covered by the likes of Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans. They both have the talent, and Andy has a similar riding style. The headwind would have probably killed him if he went at 10 km. His best opportunity was to go when he did considering the grade, counterattack, and headwind.

I also agree. He would have had to dig really deep to go from 10k out, and he likely would have either gained the same amount of time, or possibly even lost some (if he cracked and was countered). More than likely he felt the pace was not too hard and the attacks presented a perfect opportunity to test his legs ... and there is no sense if having an 80% dig, as that just wastes energy.

 

[Futuroscope]

The team was doing fine prior to Contadors attack. He didn't counter anyones attack. He just rode off because he needs to seperate himself from his teammates because they will be the hardest ones to beat. Contador's actions made him look worse then any tactics armstrong used prior to his finishing win in 2005. Granted he never rode on a team that had this much strength. It takes a team to help win a tour. Just ask Ullrich, Evans about that. If you have No one to ride with you or help you or you have so much in fighting it blows the team apart. You see how many grand tours those two won.

do you think lance and JB have treated AC with respect?

come on..its obvious your not concerned about team morale. you just want contador to hold back so lance can win.

 

[Zen Master]

I'll hold my hand up.
Right after his very first post on Floyd.
Admittedly, as it was early days, rather cryptic version.
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=55&page=2

One of Bobby's finest efforts.

Thanks for paying attention to this hidden gem

Possibly one of the greatest stage victories in the history of the TdF was Floyd's victory on the 17th stage of the '06 campaign. It set the stage for the final outcome and it proved that another American was again in the drivers seat of the world's greatest bike race. Yes, the TdF is the biggest, most influential cycling event in the world. Lots of pride and lots of money connected to that event. Lots of false-pride and lots of corrupt money exchanging hands behind the scenes.

The French don't like it when foreigners win on their turf. The French have an "attitude" that goes back well before the French Revolution. From the same family bloodlines, where "old" world money comes from, lies a power grabbing group that seeks to control anything they desire. Some of those old bloodlines live in France, and they don't like it when Americans with flair kick their a** on their turf. Lance was always riding on the edge during his run. He knew something was up then and constantly had to deal with a media, owned and manipulated by those same families, that questioned his integrity. Floyd was not so savvy in the world beyond his up bringing. He was innocent and naive. He didn't realize what power they had. How they could buy off some lab or lab technician with a few hundred thousand Euros (heck, they may even own the lab). They have power and they love to control the masses. Floyd was about as clean as clean could get, except for that shot of Jack D.

After Lance retired and decided to come back, he knew of their power, knew they could do anything the wanted to do. So, to protect himself, he is getting tested "in-house" by the Astana crew. He was going to have it done by another doctor but when Astana stepped up he didn't need to. Lance knows that once the sample leaves him, what it contains is subject to tampering. As long as those in-house samples of Lances are collected (possibly every day if necessary) by a reputable source, dated and properly stored, THAT is all that matters. What is done with the samples that go to a potentially corrupt lab technician is none of Lances concern. To bad Floyd hadn't taken the same precautionary measures back in '06 and had announced that he had in-house samples after each stage. Wow, imagine the outcome then!

Don't be concerned Floyd. You know you didn't need anything to improve your performance and that is all that matters. You are a great hero and mentor to myself and others in the race cycling world, who know that we live in a world full of corrupt politicians owned by the greedy corporations, who in turn are owned by families with old, very old money that possess' an awful stench.

As those same families continue to siphon off "bail out" money that Americans worked hard for, eventually, after our economy collapses (2009), then people who doubted you (even in this thread) will get to experience first hand, who is running the show and how we are all affected and infected.

Bobby after reading this you're my true hero !!!

 

[mr. tibbs]

Again, I dont think we have a #1 and an #2 rider, I think it's still very much 1A and 1B. Again, it's 2 secs. And to your Levi point, with all due respect to LL, he is not Lance and so you cannot equate AC attacking LA for 21 secs, to him attacking Lance for said 21 secs. Now, it's possible that Lance might get his **** whopped on Sunday, or Tuesday, or Friday, or whenever, but I think it would be wise for people to not write him off as easily as they are. And to the maillot jaune issue, even though Contador might wear yellow first, if he is just a handful of seconds ahead of LA, I cannot see JB saying that LA should support Contador if the status quo holds. It's 2 secs!! I would say anything short of a minute before the ITT and Contador would be wise to watch his back. Then again, Lance could lose 10 minutes before then, who the hell knows! Which is precisely my point about annointing either one of them team leader just yet.

Absolutely. Two seconds. And here's how it breaks down:

Stage 1 ITT: Contador gains 22 seconds
Stage 3, Flat w/ a freak split: Armstrong gains 41 seconds
Stage 7, Mountain-top finish: Contador gains 21 seconds

Which of the above indicates a rider capable of winning the Tour? Cavendish also gained that 41 seconds on Contador in that stage--should he be considered Columbia's team captain for the GC?

So far, Contador has made up time where it matters; Armstrong has made up time basically by accident. Armstrong is very good at talking through the media, and that has helped his cause a great deal, but Contador actually lets his legs do the talking. In all instances where strength mattered, Contador has proven stronger.

 

[VeloFidelis]

So far, Contador has made up time where it matters; Armstrong has made up time basically by accident. Armstrong is very good at talking through the media, and that has helped his cause a great deal, but Contador actually lets his legs do the talking. In all instances where strength mattered, Contador has proven stronger.

I be careful about using Contadors move at Arcalis as a measure of Armstrongs fitness. He didn't go with him for tactical reasons. Whether he could have gone or not is something none of us can call. This is gearing up to be the classic Youth vs Experience battle. To weight either in favor of the other is unwise at this point.

 

[Futuroscope]

I be careful about using Contadors move at Arcalis as a measure of Armstrongs fitness. He didn't go with him for tactical reasons. Whether he could have gone or not is something none of us can call. This is gearing up to be the classic Youth vs Experience battle. To weight either in favor of the other is unwise at this point.

thats true, but you have to realize its not all about lance. contador put 21 seconds into his other rivals.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I be careful about using Contadors move at Arcalis as a measure of Armstrongs fitness. He didn't go with him for tactical reasons. Whether he could have gone or not is something none of us can call. This is gearing up to be the classic Youth vs Experience battle. To weight either in favor of the other is unwise at this point.

You're right--I wasn't trying to give that impression. Sorry.

I was just pointing out that Armstrong has yet to actually do anything in this Tour to recommend himself as team leader, but Contador, well, has done. Armstrong has a storied history, true, and he's in excellent shape, but this Tour looks to me like it's Contador's. The sooner Astana realizes that, the sooner they can set about mechanically winning the Tour.

P.s.: I lol'd when you told me to uncross my eyes. That was one of the greatest lines I've seen on this forum (and TFF alone has thrown out dozens). Seriously, I thought it was great, even though I was the target. (Cuz it's all in good fun. )