Initial Top 10 for the TDF

[greenedge]

Menchov... much lower
Levi... non-existent
Samu... higher
shortened #10 spot

I was just listing names for everyone, just in case they forgot about any other contenders. ( though i forgot Valverde )

I think Levi could surprise and i think Menchov should get all factors right. I do agree with the Samu higher bit especially as he does have a good ITT.

 

[greenedge]

Kreuziger

Kreuziger is doing the Giro/ Vuelta. It leaves leadership in Astana to be between Vino, Brajkovic and Kessiakoff.

My tip for the team classification is Sky. Wiggins, Froome, Uran, Henao, Rogers, EBH ( breaks ), Porte ensure they shall get some high placings on stage. Also Cav.

Contenders also include RSNT ( mountains and ITT ), BMC ( Evans, Gilbert, Hushovd for stages ) and maybe Astana and OPQS.

 

[Winterfold]

After reading some peoples predictions I seriously doubt they have actually seen the TDF route for 2012.

I agree!

If Contador is out its between Wiggo and Cuddles, maybe Menchov.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Smoking something? Check out the course ... if there is someone who TTs much worse than Andy, it is VdB. Much, much worse. This scenario will work out if "clinic" and if lots of other folks crash out.

The course does indeed blow, but it's far harder than you, Ferminal and ACF give it credit for, IMO.

VDB's 2nd place "prediction" was silly, though, but I expect a "surprise" performance from him yes. His 2009 Tour TTs were only marginally worse than Andy's, by the way.

 

[auscyclefan94]

The course does indeed blow, but it's far harder than you, Ferminal and ACF give it credit for, IMO.

VDB's 2nd place "prediction" was silly, though, but I expect a "surprise" performance from him yes. His 2009 Tour TTs were only marginally worse than Andy's, by the way.

Hey, I actually rate the route quite highly but it will be hard for the pure climbers to get massive time on Planche des Belle Filles, La Tousuirre or Peyragudes unless they go a long way out which is very risky. Schleck's, VDB and Gesink are going to find it hard to get into the top 10 with guys like Wiggins, Evans, Menchov and possibly Contador racing.

 

[theyoungest]

Hey, I actually rate the route quite highly but it will be hard for the pure climbers to get massive time on Planche des Belle Filles, La Tousuirre or Peyragudes unless they go a long way out which is very risky. Schleck's, VDB and Gesink are going to find it hard to get into the top 10 with guys like Wiggins, Evans, Menchov and possibly Contador racing.

There's still 6 more spots in the top-10... the Tour is always a hard race, no matter what the course. Maybe Schleck can't win it, but after all he got 2nd in that 2009 travesty, so why not now.

Why people have Gesink in their lists I don't really understand though, I don't see him having the fitness and racing toughness to compete. Has anyone ever made the top-10 with a metal pin in their leg?

 

[Kwibus]

There's still 6 more spots in the top-10... the Tour is always a hard race, no matter what the course. Maybe Schleck can't win it, but after all he got 2nd in that 2009 travesty, so why not now.

Why people have Gesink in their lists I don't really understand though, I don't see him having the fitness and racing toughness to compete. Has anyone ever made the top-10 with a metal pin in their leg?

I put him on 2 waiting for someone to call me an idiot. I should've put him on 1 though, because nobody is calling me an idiot yet

 

[Tank Engine]

1. Contador
2. Gesink
3. Evans
4. Wiggins
5. A. Schleck
6. S. Sanchez
7. Nibali
8. Menchov
9. Mollema
10. Froome

A guy with a metal plate in his leg is going to finish second in the tour. Are you an idiot?

p.s. Apart from that, it looks quite similar to my prediction .

Is that better?

 

[theyoungest]

I put him on 2 waiting for someone to call me an idiot. I should've put him on 1 though, because nobody is calling me an idiot yet

Idiot.

U vraagt, wij draaien...

 

[Angliru]

The course does indeed blow, but it's far harder than you, Ferminal and ACF give it credit for, IMO.

VDB's 2nd place "prediction" was silly, though, but I expect a "surprise" performance from him yes. His 2009 Tour TTs were only marginally worse than Andy's, by the way.

Are you thinking that Andy, under Bruyneel's "tutelage" will pull a Michael Rassmussen, circa 2007, and suddenly become pretty good versus the clock?

 

[theyoungest]

Are you thinking that Andy, under Bruyneel's "tutelage" will pull a Michael Rassmussen, circa 2007, and suddenly become pretty good versus the clock?

He already is "pretty good" against the clock. Better than Nibali, for instance (in a long time trial, at least).

 

[FF'Wilco]

1. Contador
2. A. Schleck
3. Evans
4. Wiggins
5. Nibali
6. F. Schleck
7. Menchov
8. S. Sanchez
9. Vande Vede
10. Froome

 

[Hartog]

1. Contador
2. Wiggins
3. Evans
4. Klöden
5. S. Sanchez
6. A. Schleck
7. Menchov
8. Rolland
9. D. Martin
10. Mollema

F. Schleck to crash out.

 

[skidmark]

Kreuziger is doing the Giro/ Vuelta. It leaves leadership in Astana to be between Vino, Brajkovic and Kessiakoff.

What, no love for Kashechkin? I know he hasn't shown anything in 4.5 years, but remember when he looked so good in the Vuelta in 2006? Magic will happen, mark my words.

 

[greenedge]

VDB's 2nd place "prediction" was silly, though, but I expect a "surprise" performance from him yes. His 2009 Tour TTs were only marginally worse than Andy's, by the way.

Yeah but he came 15th in that TDF. Up until the Dauphine this year he had not won a race as a pro. That shows you how much he attacks. And riders like Shleck when they attack, their attacks are more effective.

JVDB problem is he always sits 2nd wheel, to make him look strong. What he should focus on is doing Evanns/ Nibali clawing back tactics rather than blowing up his dogged riding style.

I think if he improves his ITT he might top 5 but i doubt it. He would need a lot of crashes and all out war in the mountains ( which will happen )

@ Skidmark; lol i forgot about Kashackin. I don't know what he can achieve but he is ok against the clock. Hopefully he gets back into good form. I would still expect him to have to do work for Brajkovic and Vino and Kessiakoff ( if he rides ).

 

[SHAD0W93]

Kreuziger is doing the Giro/ Vuelta. It leaves leadership in Astana to be between Vino, Brajkovic and Kessiakoff.

My tip for the team classification is Sky. Wiggins, Froome, Uran, Henao, Rogers, EBH ( breaks ), Porte ensure they shall get some high placings on stage. Also Cav.

Contenders also include RSNT ( mountains and ITT ), BMC ( Evans, Gilbert, Hushovd for stages ) and maybe Astana and OPQS.

Well than he will top 10 both

 

[Ripper]

The course does indeed blow, but it's far harder than you, Ferminal and ACF give it credit for, IMO.

VDB's 2nd place "prediction" was silly, though, but I expect a "surprise" performance from him yes. His 2009 Tour TTs were only marginally worse than Andy's, by the way.

I did not say the course blew or that it was easy. I know it is hard. However, it does not have that many MTFs, which is where the purest climbers can make an impact. We've already seen the net gain of the early attack this year.

What has VDB done against the clock in a long TT.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I did not say the course blew or that it was easy. I know it is hard. However, it does not have that many MTFs, which is where the purest climbers can make an impact. We've already seen the net gain of the early attack this year.

What has VDB done against the clock in a long TT.

The Galibier and Alpe d'Huez stages were badly designed in that regard and penalized early attacks by their very designs. Next year's edition offers better opportunities despite the weaker course.

VDB's TT record is known. He sucked really bad in recent years, excluding this year's Dauphine TT. He changed his position which didn't help matters much. They are working to correct that mistake. He was a decent TTer before and shouldn't lose too much time to the likes of Andy Schleck or Vincenzo Nibali.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ranking based on posts made, same way of giving points as the earlier ranking made by Hugo Koblet (1st place = 10pts, 10th place = 1pt)

Up to and including Hartog's post, it looks like this:

1. Contador: 8.63
2. Evans: 8.03
3. A. Schleck: 6.19
4. Wiggins: 6.03
5. Sanchez: 5.25
6. Menchov: 5.16
7. Nibali: 3.63
8. Klöden: 1.72
9. F. Schleck: 1.69
9. Gesink: 1.69
10. VDB: 1.56
11. Leipheimer: 0.69
12. Horner: 0.50
12. Froome: 0.50
13. Vande Velde: 0.44
13. Rolland: 0.44
14. Scarponi: 0.31
14. Velits: 0.31
15. Danielson: 0.28
15. Valverde: 0.28
16. Brajkovic: 0.19
16. Peraud: 0.19
16. Taaramae: 0.19
17. Kreuziger: 0.16
18. Monfort: 0.13
18. Voeckler: 0.13
19. Mollema: 0.09
20. T. Martin: 0.06
20. D. Martin: 0.06
21. Kruijswijk: 0.03
21. Porte: 0.03
21. Cancellara: 0.03
21. Uran: 0.03
21. Talansky: 0.03
21. Van Garderen: 0.03
21. Pinot: 0.03

 

[Anonymous]

Valverde
Ricco*
Armstrong**
Cobo
Contador*
Baby Schleck**
Schleck the Elder
Tom Danielson
Bottle
Chris Horner


*if they ride
** depending of if andy gets busted for doping and lance comes out of retirement to take his place

 

[Tank Engine]

Valverde
Ricco*
Armstrong**
Cobo
Contador*
Baby Schleck**
Schleck the Elder
Tom Danielson
Bottle
Chris Horner


*if they ride
** depending of if andy gets busted for doping and lance comes out of retirement to take his place

You've been having a few Leipheimers haven't you?

 

[theyoungest]

Valverde
Ricco*
Armstrong**
Cobo
Contador*
Baby Schleck**
Schleck the Elder
Tom Danielson
Bottle
Chris Horner


*if they ride
** depending of if andy gets busted for doping and lance comes out of retirement to take his place

Where's Froome?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

1. Contador
2. Cadel Evans
3. Van Den Broeck
3. Menchov
4. Wiggins
5. Peraud
6. Schleck Andy
7. Schleck Frank
8. Nibali
9. Kreuziger
10. Tony Martin

 

[ferryman]

Valverde
Ricco*
Armstrong**
Cobo
Contador*
Baby Schleck**
Schleck the Elder
Tom Danielson
Bottle
Chris Horner


*if they ride
** depending of if andy gets busted for doping and lance comes out of retirement to take his place

You OK

 

[Zam_Olyas]

1.Menchov 2. Andy (hog power)3.Evans4.Samu 5. Wiggins 6.Nibali 7. TGBM 8.Michele 9. ROlland 10. Horner