Is any rider able to challenge Contador in his peak form at the 2015 Tour De France?

[LaFlorecita]

Some Contador fans have managed to convince themselves that a top form Contador can out climb a top form Froome but you are right. It hasn't happened yet.

On the one hand, Contador had less time to train for the Vuelta because his injury occurred later and was more severe, which would indicate he was further off his best than Froome.

On the other hand, Froome was very bad in the time trial by his standards, which indicates he was further off his best (2013 level) than Contador, who did a good one.

Who the better climber is, in top form, remains an unknown, one that will hopefully be resolved next summer.

“(I had) the belief that if he could do it (make the Vuelta) then so could I,” explained Contador. “I saw the training data with the coach that had worked with them [Sky] and that knew the times that they had done. We compared than and sometimes they were better. That gives you confidence, but he is a very hard racer.”

 

[Taxus4a]

Some Contador fans have managed to convince themselves that a top form Contador can out climb a top form Froome but you are right. It hasn't happened yet.

On the one hand, Contador had less time to train for the Vuelta because his injury occurred later and was more severe, which would indicate he was further off his best than Froome.

On the other hand, Froome was very bad in the time trial by his standards, which indicates he was further off his best (2013 level) than Contador, who did a good one.

Who the better climber is, in top form, remains an unknown, one that will hopefully be resolved next summer.

Contador take his bike 5 days later of his crash.

Contador rode more days in the Tour, even one mountain day, that is an advantage. Just 4 days of competition in twoo month is very litthe for Froome..one week is not much, but it is better that the whole Tour de France...

I admit that Contador was more motivated to the Vuelta than Froome, and he made big efforts to start training early despite his injure, better than Froome, what has my admiration, and it is something to be proud.

But I dont admit Contador was in the Vuelta in lower form than Froome, that is not true, it is the best level he has ever showed after his santion and I said that before the Vuelta and in the first days.

 

[Dr. Juice]

Verbier Contador or Giro '11 Contador beats every version of Froome.

Many put emphasis on stage 2 in the Dauphine. Contador just came back from 2 months (!) without competition, first mountain stage.
While Froome had almost 4 weeks less break.
Alberto was better towards the end of the race. Still building up for the Tour.

He had his most successful year in terms of racing. Even better than 2009. It's not unreasonable to think he was in Verbier form at the Tour. Dropping everyone bar Nibali easily on a 1.8 km murito + putting him deep into the red. The same Nibali who put in similar wattage to 2013 Froome.
"Best since he joined the team".
There is no ultimate proof. But I think he was on 2009 level or at least 2011 level.

 

[LaFlorecita]

]Contador take his bike 5 days later of his crash.[/B]

Contador rode more days in the Tour, even one mountain day, that is an advantage. Just 4 days of competition in twoo month is very litthe for Froome..one week is not much, but it is better that the whole Tour de France...

I admit that Contador was more motivated to the Vuelta than Froome, and he made big efforts to start training early despite his injure, better than Froome, what has my admiration, and it is something to be proud.

But I dont admit Contador was in the Vuelta in lower form than Froome, that is not true, it is the best level he has ever showed after his santion and I said that before the Vuelta and in the first days.

Nope.

He got on the bike 5 days after the wound was cleaned and closed again. Which was 15 days after the crash.

 

[BlurryVII]

Verbier Contador or Giro '11 Contador beats every version of Froome.

Many put emphasis on stage 2 in the Dauphine. Contador just came back from 2 months (!) without competition, first mountain stage.
While Froome had almost 4 weeks less break.
Alberto was better towards the end of the race. Still building up for the Tour.

He had his most successful year in terms of racing. Even better than 2009. It's not unreasonable to think he was in Verbier form at the Tour. Dropping everyone bar Nibali easily on a 1.8 km murito + putting him deep into the red. The same Nibali who put in similar wattage to 2013 Froome.
"Best since he joined the team".
There is no ultimate proof. But I think he was on 2009 level or at least 2011 level.

Pretty much this.

Froome is arguably one hell of a climber, but to this day, his AX 3 domaines performance is the only one which could match peak Contador.

Still, the fact is that the top form Froome 13' couldn't keep his shape at the top throughout the Tour, & even faded in the 3rd week, got beaten by Quintana and Rodriguez.
His Ventoux performance was good, but certainly not stellar and got overrated with time.

The Ventoux day, people just got excited & carried away because of that sat-on-the saddle acceleration which he did on low gradient sector, against the worst AC ever. Any version of on form AC would hold his wheel and even drop him.


As for Nibali 14', he has similar numbers as Froome 13' overall for many reasons:
-Planche des belles filles - Short MTF - Huge wattage. ( no short MTF in 2013 so not comparable)
-Weak field, no one to attack Nibali relentlessly and test his recovery. Therefore, he was fresher towards the end.
- as I said, Froome's level diminished from 1st week to 3 rd week.

Nibali 14' has been consistent, but certainly not at Froome's AX 3 level . Far from that.

 

[yespatterns]

I think the big 4 are all reasonably equal riders potentially, but their personal styles, team styles, and general training/racing culture vary to such a degree that its hard to predict. Throw in parcour variations and a few other variables (form after end season rest, media presence due to being a champion, external team pressure ie. sky this year), and as fans of cycling we'll just have to wait and see. Contie's numbers weren't 2009 level iirc, but he and froome should, by my humble estimation, come back stronger next year.Cheers!

 

[djpbaltimore]

Wiggins dominant 2012 --> debacle 2013
Froome dominant 2013 --> inconsistent 2014
Contador dominant 2014 --> ???? 2015

I wouldn't bet the farm on Contador matching his 2014 form next year.

 

[Publicus]

Contador take his bike 5 days later of his crash.

Contador rode more days in the Tour, even one mountain day, that is an advantage. Just 4 days of competition in twoo month is very litthe for Froome..one week is not much, but it is better that the whole Tour de France...

I admit that Contador was more motivated to the Vuelta than Froome, and he made big efforts to start training early despite his injure, better than Froome, what has my admiration, and it is something to be proud.

But I dont admit Contador was in the Vuelta in lower form than Froome, that is not true, it is the best level he has ever showed after his santion and I said that before the Vuelta and in the first days.

You are working might hard to convince yourself that this was Contador's top form.

 

[Publicus]

Wiggins dominant 2012 --> debacle 2013
Froome dominant 2013 --> inconsistent 2014
Contador dominant 2014 --> ???? 2015

I wouldn't bet the farm on Contador matching his 2013 form next year.

I think the differing factor for Contador will be that he still looks relatively healthy when he's at his Tour racing weight. Both Froome and Wiggins looked downright emaciated/sickly and I think that contributed to the uneveniness of their performance after their dominant years. We'll see in a few short months I guess.

 

[Ryaguas]

Contador take his bike 5 days later of his crash.

Contador rode more days in the Tour, even one mountain day, that is an advantage. Just 4 days of competition in twoo month is very litthe for Froome..one week is not much, but it is better that the whole Tour de France...

I admit that Contador was more motivated to the Vuelta than Froome, and he made big efforts to start training early despite his injure, better than Froome, what has my admiration, and it is something to be proud.

But I dont admit Contador was in the Vuelta in lower form than Froome, that is not true, it is the best level he has ever showed after his santion and I said that before the Vuelta and in the first days.

You are trying to hard man give it a rest...

AC was not at his best... not even close... but he was building up form little by little. He can build form rather quickly (Giro 2008 - Vuelta 2012 - Vuelta 2014), quicker than Froome. We have not seen the Tour 2009 or Giro 2011 due to him having something that affects him like first coming from the ban, then the 2013 where he missed the path and lost his motivation, 2014 his fall on le tour... if He can have 2 years without problems he can repeat Tour 2009 and Giro 2011 form...

This year he is going to finish the season on top and with an awesome base form for next year if he could manage to stay healthy, keep the motivation and the training, we are going to see another Verbier or Etna performance. Alberto is going with psichological superiority against Froome due to beat him in the vuelta and to Nibali because Giro 2011.

And about the excuses... enough with that man... He is not going to put in risk his career having a fall at 74 km/h just to have an excuse to explain why he didnt beat Nibali

 

[Angliru]

Wiggins dominant 2012 --> debacle 2013
Froome dominant 2013 --> inconsistent 2014
Contador dominant 2014 --> ???? 2015

I wouldn't bet the farm on Contador matching his 2013 form next year.

You're comparing a rider that has rediscovered his mojo, one who has a history of getting his training for his goal right for most of his carer with 2 riders that reached the mountain top and immediately stumbled the following year. Wiggins never to match that level again and a rider from the same team following the same pattern. I think Contador has more to prove and will thus be more motivated than ever by his return to form and to regain the top step at the Tour. Froome should be equally motivated but will have doubts about what he and Sky thought was his and their invincibility and planned domination.

 

[Angliru]

Wiggins dominant 2012 --> debacle 2013
Froome dominant 2013 --> inconsistent 2014
Contador dominant 2014 --> ???? 2015

I wouldn't bet the farm on Contador matching his 2013 form next year.

Do you mean his 2014 form?

 

[Electress]

You're comparing a rider that has rediscovered his mojo, one who has a history of getting his training for his goal right for most of his carer with 2 riders that reached the mountain top and immediately stumbled the following year. Wiggins never to match that level again and a rider from the same team following the same pattern. I think Contador has more to prove and will thus be more motivated than ever by his return to form and to regain the top step at the Tour. Froome should be equally motivated but will have doubts about what he and Sky thought was his and their invincibility and planned domination.

Could not agree more.

Without wishing to dismiss other rivals, for me, this is really about Contador vs Froome.

A few things make me question whether Froome will dominate again like he did in 2013:

(1) I’m not convinced that his team are in the same place – I think the peloton have got their measure, and they need to make changes and add more ideas in the mix. If I’m honest, I also get the impression – though it is an impression only, I fully admit – that the team is not a 100% happy place. For all the successes it has brought, I also have very mixed feelings about the ‘ride the internal race’ / ‘manage the process’ stuff. That ‘Time trialling a mountain stage’ fills me with misgiving. It’s a pretty mentally defensive approach. It'll be interesting to see how they respond to their failures this year in 2015.

(2) Froome has a relatively inconsistent record since his peak. Contador has demonstrated his ability to recover and sustain form both recently and over the long term.

(3) I don’t think Froome is as mentally tough as Contador. I’m also not convinced he’s as hungry. Yes, he was dogged and didn’t give up in the Vuelta, but his language was interesting…he sounded like a guy who’d accepted second place. You might argue he was being realistic, and ‘that it was just an extended training ride’, but Contador began with just the same question-marks yet it was pretty obvious he really wanted to win and expected himself to challenge at least. I got the impression he was enjoying being a bit of an unknown quantity. I’d back him to come out fighting almost no matter what.

(4) Froome / Sky need to work on tactics. Contador always seems to be better at reading things and rivals on the road. In a race of many contenders, I'd rate Contador and Saxo as being better at playing their rivals and being unpredictable than what I've seen of Froome / Sky

(5) Froome’s crashes…one of the most surprising things about the ITT was not that he was down on time, but just how fragile and teetering Froome looked on some of those corners. I’m not sure what the issue is, but that isn’t about physical condition, it’s something else - confidence? judgement being a bit off? If the weather is crap…well…

(6) As someone else mentioned, I do think there is a health / weight issue. Contador looks pretty lean at the beginning and downright thin after three weeks of racing. Froome looks emaciated; fragile even. (Even allowing for the effects of skin tone). Holding such a low weight at 6 ft 1 versus 5 ft 9 has to have repercussions - I know from living with a lightweight rower (max weight ca 72 kg; crew av. 70kg) that maintaining form and health is a real struggle for a tall guy. They fall sick at the drop of a hat. And though I know all team's manage nutrition etc., it seems to me more likely to undermine recovery / sustaining form not only over a three week endurance race, but a season and a career.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

 

[Mountain Goat Cyclist]

I would have voted "all three" and "depends on the route". Good question to ask though!

As we've seen over many Grand Tours, the favourite in peak form can always be beaten. Just scanning over the GT winners since 2006, I would say some non-favourites have surprised the traditional top-three contenders before the race begun. Such as Horner, Cobo, Hesjedal, Sastre, and then to a lesser extent Wiggins and Evans.

Of the favourites you posted, I think it genuinely depends on the route. A top form Froome is very strong in the time trial, even against Contador, and especially if that time trial is a traditional 50km flat course. Contador himself has admitted over the years that it's those TTs that touch over 40-45km are the ones where he looks to minimise losses, rather than match or gain time.

If there are two time trials of reasonable distance in le Tour, and we are comparing a peak-form Froome v Nibali v Quintana v Contador, I suspect Froome would be the winner regardless of the other stages (unless there are cobbles). I think he can minimise losses in the mountains to the other three, and what he may happen to lose he would be able to gain back in the final TT of the race.

Let's hope they are all together in July 2015. Although I suspect Nibali, being the smart racer he is, will look to add another Giro to his palmares. He has a knack of targeting the right grand tours at the right time.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Robo Basso will return and humilate all of them

Finally a man maybe a woman, animal or even a robot who has it all figured out.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Do you mean his 2014 form?

Sorry, I meant 2014 of course. Thank you for catching my typo.

Obviously it is difficult to compare the three riders, but the similarity was the incredible season long stretch of top form for all three. Like Gilbert in the one day races a few years ago, it is hard to repeat that form in back to back seasons. It is difficult to hold the complacency at bay once you have tasted such sweet success. All cyclists are driven competitors, but if motivation drops by just a smidge and that extra half kilo doesn't get worked off during the winter, there are hungry (no pun intended) opponents ready to dethrone you. Plus Contador is entering a phase of his career and life where cycling might not always be the be all end all to his existence. I would be shocked if there is not some regression in Contador's results. It doesn't mean he can't still win a GT, but I think his CQ points will decrease markedly.

 

[ggusta]

So many variables.... It's really hard to try and play this game, especially when you look back at this year's tdf. I hope the reality can match the anticipation. (for once! )

All I know is that since 2007 there is one guy who has one 8 GT's. It's really hard to go against that kind of record. And if you want to say two were dq's and it's really only 6, then say he won 6. And it's still hard. Look at how many GT's he entered and DID NOT win...

I'll take the safe bet.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wiggins dominant 2012 --> debacle 2013
Froome dominant 2013 --> inconsistent 2014
Contador dominant 2014 --> ???? 2015

I wouldn't bet the farm on Contador matching his 2014 form next year.

Contador (dominant 2007 -->) dominant 2008 --> dominant 2009 --> dominant 2010 --> dominant 2011

 

[Ryaguas]

Contador (dominant 2007 -->) dominant 2008 --> dominant 2009 --> dominant 2010 --> dominant 2011

Well I wouldnt say that He was that dominant just cuz He looked not that good in Le Tour... He suffered in some parts and also AS was in a incredible form... just remember when after chaingate he went uphill really fast trying to catch AC, Samu and Menchov. But in the stage races like PN, Castilla y Leon, Murcia, Algarve... well he killed it.

 

[ILovecycling]

Contador (dominant 2007 -->) dominant 2008 --> dominant 2009 --> dominant 2010 --> dominant 2011

dominant 2014 --> dominant 2015 --> dominant 2016...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Well I wouldnt say that He was that dominant just cuz He looked not that good in Le Tour... He suffered in some parts and also AS was in a incredible form... just remember when after chaingate he went uphill really fast trying to catch AC, Samu and Menchov. But in the stage races like PN, Castilla y Leon, Murcia, Algarve... well he killed it.

Exactly. And even though he suffered at the Tour he still won. So in my book he dominated.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Contador (dominant 2007 -->) dominant 2008 --> dominant 2009 --> dominant 2010 --> dominant 2011

Claiming 2007 as a dominant year for Contador is a stretch of the imagination. He wasn't even the strongest rider in the TDF. And he was beaten by Dave Zabriskie in the Dauphine. I rest my case.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Claiming 2007 as a dominant year for Contador is a stretch of the imagination. He wasn't even the strongest rider in the TDF. And he was beaten by Dave Zabriskie in the Dauphine. I rest my case.

which is why I put it between brackets

There is nothing that suggests Alberto will have a mediocre year next year. Alberto =/= Froome and Wiggins. You can't just compare random riders.

 

[djpbaltimore]

which is why I put it between brackets

There is nothing that suggests Alberto will have a mediocre year next year. Alberto =/= Froome and Wiggins. You can't just compare random riders.

Being the best GC rider in the world for a year is not exactly a random assignment. Even still...

Contador CQ points 2009: 2272
Contador CQ points 2010: 1222

Contador CQ points 2014: 2490
Contador CQ Points 2015: ????

I wouldn't bet the farm that Contador has as dominant a season in 2015 as in 2014.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Being the best GC rider in the world for a year is not exactly a random assignment. Even still...

Contador CQ points 2009: 2272
Contador CQ points 2010: 1222

Contador CQ points 2014: 2490
Contador CQ Points 2015: ????

I wouldn't bet the farm that Contador has as dominant a season in 2015 as in 2014.

Oh come on, 2010 was a 2000+ season and you know it.