Is any rider able to challenge Contador in his peak form at the 2015 Tour De France?

[SeriousSam]

Correct, djpbaltimore. Either he will be better or worse. It's more likely he'll be worse in 2015 because he isn't on an upwards trajectory like a rider in his mid twenties anymore. He's at the peak where he needs to hold his level, and the extraordinary is usually followed by the more ordinary, much like 2013 was followed by a better year. This is called regression to the mean.

 

[Jspear]

Being the best GC rider in the world for a year is not exactly a random assignment. Even still...

Contador CQ points 2009: 2272
Contador CQ points 2010: 1222

Contador CQ points 2014: 2490
Contador CQ Points 2015: ????

I wouldn't bet the farm that Contador has as dominant a season in 2015 as in 2014.

Of course no one knows. But....he is very motivated. Whatever issues he had in 2013 he has overcome. He said that this year he has trained more "professionally" than he ever has in the past. He knows exactly what to do to prepare for next year. He is a champion, he's a fighter....wouldn't bet against him.

Edit: and even if he is not as successful throughout the entire season, I'm sure he'll be at the top of the food chain for his major goals of the season.

 

[kingjr]

Correct, djpbaltimore. Either he will be better or worse.

Now that's a statement

 

[djpbaltimore]

Oh come on, 2010 was a 2000+ season and you know it.

Ehhhh?

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=387

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ehhhh?

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=387

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=387&year=2010&all=1&current=0

Contador has been consistently at the top since 2007, with the exception of 2013.

2011 was 2000+ as well (I think it was around 2300)
2012 was 1200 points in 36 race days or so

 

[SeriousSam]

Now that's a statement

Please don't make it seem like my lucid piece of analysis reduces to a tautology.

 

[djpbaltimore]

If you just look at his CQ graph, throwing out his partial years, it is a line trending down from a peak in 2008 until this year. Which is the most likely to be the outlier?

 

[LaFlorecita]

If you just look at his CQ graph, throwing out his partial years, it is a line trending down from a peak in 2008 until this year. Which is the most likely to be the outlier?

1632
2520
2272
2000
2300
1277 in 36 days
1228
2490

isn't a downward trend.
Rather, it's a consistent level with one massive outlier

 

[Netserk]

Ehhhh?

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=387

Edit: 2011:

 

[djpbaltimore]

1632
2520
2272
2000
2300
1277 in 36 days
1228
2490

isn't a downward trend.
Rather, it's a consistent level with one massive outlier

2500 to 2200 to 2000 is not a downward trend? It is a typical parabola with an upward segment while he is entering his prime with a peak in 2008 following by a gradual descent. 2014 is the outlier IMO.

 

[LaFlorecita]

2500 to 2200 to 2000 is not a downward trend? It is a typical parabola with an upward segment while he is entering his prime with a peak in 2008 following by a gradual descent. 2014 is the outlier IMO.

CQ efficiency (points divided by race days)

2007 - 25.50
2008 - 37.06
2009 - 42.07
2010 - 41.84
2011 - 43.15
2012 - 35.47
2013 - 18.61
2014 - 39.52

spot the outlier

 

[djpbaltimore]

CQ efficiency (points divided by race days)

2007 - 25.50
2008 - 37.06
2009 - 42.07
2010 - 41.84
2011 - 43.15
2012 - 35.47
2013 - 18.61
2014 - 39.52

spot the outlier

Actually that fits my observation even better. It is a flatter parabola with a broader peak between 09 and 11 with a decline as he hits his later years. 2014 still stands as the clear outlier. Graph it out.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Actually that fits my observation even better. It is a flatter parabola with a broader peak between 09 and 11 with a decline as he hits his later years. 2014 still stands as the clear outlier. Graph it out.

I would if I knew how to use excel

you know what - I believe you might be... trolling

 

[kingjr]

please don't make it seem like my lucid piece of analysis reduces to a tautology.

scnr

___

 

[LaFlorecita]

If you'd show someone this image and ask them what stands out to them.

What would it be

 

[Netserk]

Actually that fits my observation even better. It is a flatter parabola with a broader peak between 09 and 11 with a decline as he hits his later years. 2014 still stands as the clear outlier. Graph it out.

2013 is the outlier.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I would if I knew how to use excel

you know what - I believe you might be... trolling

Throwing out a trolling accusation is poor sauce.

Here is the graph. To me it looks like a parabola. YMMV

https://twitter.com/DanielPrantner/status/512677770980118528/photo/1

 

[SeriousSam]

While you guys played around in Excel I went ahead and used the advanced curve fitting algorithms in the MS PAINT package. The green line represents la flo's model, red is djpbaltimore

 

[djpbaltimore]

2013 is the outlier.

By the curve fitting, both 2013 and 2014 are outliers. I generally agree with that curve fitting algorithm and predict about 25 CQ/day next season. Which would be a marked decrease from 2014 as I stated earlier in this thread.

EDIT. Graphing the data without 2014, the parabola fits with an Rsquared of .96426. A much better fit!!!!!!

 

[LaFlorecita]

While you guys played around in Excel I went ahead and used the advanced curve fitting algorithms in the MS PAINT package. The green line represents la flo's model, red is djpbaltimore

Nice one SeriousSam

 

[del1962]

While you guys played around in Excel I went ahead and used the advanced curve fitting algorithms in the MS PAINT package. The green line represents la flo's model, red is djpbaltimore

Surely LAFlo's should not have that up spike for 2015, but a very small deflection from the horizontal (up or down)

 

[LaFlorecita]

Throwing out a trolling accusation is poor sauce.

Here is the graph. To me it looks like a parabola. YMMV

https://twitter.com/DanielPrantner/status/512677770980118528/photo/1

You are right. It does look like a parabola. That does not mean it is a parabola.

I am not making sense

I prefer to look at the numbers. consistently around 40 CQ points/race day, and 1 year with less than 50% of that number.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Surely LAFlo's should not have that up spike for 2015, but a very small deflection from the horizontal (up or down)

yes you are correct

ps I am expecting Alberto to break 4000 points next year

GC triple + Tirreno, Pais Vasco, Dauphiné, Lombardia

it will be the longest super peak ever seen

 

[LaFlorecita]

Throwing out a trolling accusation is poor sauce.

Here is the graph. To me it looks like a parabola. YMMV

https://twitter.com/DanielPrantner/status/512677770980118528/photo/1

I love how the second reply you got, after mine, was "The really **** 2013?"

 

[djpbaltimore]

You are right. It does look like a parabola. That does not mean it is a parabola.

I am not making sense

I prefer to look at the numbers. consistently around 40 CQ points/race day, and 1 year with less than 50% of that number.

You are assuming that a career arc is not parabolic. We are just making different assumptions and viewing the data differently. He might rack up another ~40 Cq/day season next year even if the data don't predict it. The numbers represent a small sample set, so there will be a lot of variability. Personally, his parabola might be more flat than the data indicate because 2013 was also likely an outlier as I stated to Netserk.