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Is UAE Over the Top?

Page 5 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Just because they're going to the Tour with a podium finish in mind doesn't mean that they aren't second class citizens at the moment. I mean, there's half a dozen teams who are going there with GC aspirations in mind, but when the top 10 best contenders are all in the same 3 teams (because clearly now the likes of Almeida, Jorgenson and Ayuso are showing themselves currently superior to the likes of Carapaz, Mas and Simon Yates, whatever that may imply), aspirations are kinda meaningless. FDJ sent a bunch of capable GC riders and prospects that I'm sure they may have aspired to a strong GC placement with too.
There are GTs other than the Tour. Rodriguez has now underperformed. But he was close last year. And INEOS has two Tour podiums from the Pog/Vingegaard era. And they've always been podium finishers at the Giro since 2020, including two overall wins.
 
The question is then, would you rather be invested in worse racing in the name of equality or at least a more level playing field? I know I would not. At one point it was US Postal and Telekom, then it was CSC and Astana, then it was Sky and Movistar, and now its UAE and Jumbo. I don't really care that much about that, I care about good racing and this era has produced the best (by a countrymile) racing I have ever seen in this race (apart from 2003 which was a one-off in that time).
 
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Now:

21: Tadej Pogačar
11: UAE Team Emirates (WITHOUT Pogačar)
11: Soudal Quickstep
11: Alpecin Deceuninck
11: Visma Lease a BIke
10: LIDL Trek
8: Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe
6: Decathlon AG2R
6: Ineos Grenadiers
4: Intermarché - Wanty
4: EF Education Easypost
3: Bahrain Victorious
2: Groupama - FDJ
2: Team dsm-firmenich PostNL
2: Cofidis
1: Jayco AlUla
1: Astana Qazaqstan Team
1: Arkéa - B&B Hotels
1: Movistar Team
 
The question is then, would you rather be invested in worse racing in the name of equality or at least a more level playing field? I know I would not. At one point it was US Postal and Telekom, then it was CSC and Astana, then it was Sky and Movistar, and now its UAE and Jumbo. I don't really care that much about that, I care about good racing and this era has produced the best (by a countrymile) racing I have ever seen in this race (apart from 2003 which was a one-off in that time).
Is it really 'good racing' when it's not even really tactics, it's just "I'll wait until I feel like blowing everybody away and then I'll do it"? I mean, I'll give you that Sky's simple bludgeoning tactic was a lot more interesting when they had to do it from afar in the 2018 Giro than when they just ground everyone to dust on the final climb, but I don't really feel there's any tension or excitement in just waiting for when Pogi rides away from everybody and nobody can respond. I mean, one or two overpowered teams with riders who go from distance but just ride everybody off their wheel at will and win by minutes... isn't that what everybody used to moan about van der Breggen and van Vleuten making women's cycling boring by doing?
 
Is it really 'good racing' when it's not even really tactics, it's just "I'll wait until I feel like blowing everybody away and then I'll do it"? I mean, I'll give you that Sky's simple bludgeoning tactic was a lot more interesting when they had to do it from afar in the 2018 Giro than when they just ground everyone to dust on the final climb, but I don't really feel there's any tension or excitement in just waiting for when Pogi rides away from everybody and nobody can respond. I mean, one or two overpowered teams with riders who go from distance but just ride everybody off their wheel at will and win by minutes... isn't that what everybody used to moan about van der Breggen and van Vleuten making women's cycling boring by doing?
I think the race was exciting until it wasn't when Jonas couldn't attack on Bonette. There was still doubt and a bit of suspense.. at least until the Pyrenees after he was able to cope with Pog for almost two weeks before the real mountains hit. But yeah, it wasn't necessarily great racing when it happened again and again, and it by far the most one-sided duel they have had tbf. I still enjoyed it. I am an enjoyer of big time gaps and nowhere to hide, so thats how that goes.

But which race do you think was better the last 20 years? And can you even find races that are better than 23 or even 22? 19 was obvious until everything got cancelled.
 
There was suspense until 3 millimeters into Pogacar's attack on Plat d'Adet. Then you realise it was never close and all the tension was a fantasy

Ah, it was a long 3mm though, for a km it looked like Vingegaard could maybe reel him back, than he accerelares again and then it's over.

But I think tension wise the biggest issue this season really has been that almost always, it's one attack and than he's gone.
 
There was suspense until 3 millimeters into Pogacar's attack on Plat d'Adet. Then you realise it was never close and all the tension was a fantasy

Still it lasted two weeks and was building up nicely:
1) Pogacar attacks on San Luca and to his disappointment Vingo is on the wheel.
2) Pogacar gaps Vingo on Galibier but by a little, most of his advantage on the descent
3) Pogacar attacks on gravel but gains big fat ZERO
4) Mind games between the faves (gaining 7 minute in 2 stages, no balls etc)
5) Pogacar attacks and is chased down and beaten at the end by Vingo in Massif Central. A turning point?
Before the Pyrenees the suspence was at a very high level.
 
Just because they're going to the Tour with a podium finish in mind doesn't mean that they aren't second class citizens at the moment. I mean, there's half a dozen teams who are going there with GC aspirations in mind, but when the top 10 best contenders are all in the same 3 teams (because clearly now the likes of Almeida, Jorgenson and Ayuso are showing themselves currently superior to the likes of Carapaz, Mas and Simon Yates, whatever that may imply), aspirations are kinda meaningless. FDJ sent a bunch of capable GC riders and prospects that I'm sure they may have aspired to a strong GC placement with too.
In Ineos case it more has to do with the management not being as interested anymore and the main guys behind the team have other things going on.

They reaped the benefits from their Olympics and program that went hand-in-hand for a lot of years. We are only getting further removed from it.

Thomas is the last one left.

Guys like Pidock and Tarling are very good, potentially great, but they will probably never become GC contenders. Another positive from the years of success is that are lot more British riders coming through and potentially in the future as well, because of the success in the 2010s era for them.

Anyway, we can only speculate on their current program... but it seems to be outdated. Either because they havent invested in a while or because they are just not pushing the limits anymore. Probably because of the management. It begins and stops there, because we know they have talented riders. They are not just going as fast atm. ITTs seems to be where they can only really challenge the best.

I would view them as a sleeping giant though. Maybe they are just cooling off for a bit after dominating for nearly a decade.
 
Still it lasted two weeks and was building up nicely:
1) Pogacar attacks on San Luca and to his disappointment Vingo is on the wheel.
2) Pogacar gaps Vingo on Galibier but by a little, most of his advantage on the descent
3) Pogacar attacks on gravel but gains big fat ZERO
4) Mind games between the faves (gaining 7 minute in 2 stages, no balls etc)
5) Pogacar attacks and is chased down and beaten at the end by Vingo in Massif Central. A turning point?
Before the Pyrenees the suspence was at a very high level.
All suspense was based on bad assumptions, namely that Vingegaard would continue to grow into the 3rd week and Pogacar would fade. Galibier wasn't a moment of hopium at all. It was actually a massive slap in the face after San Luca. And that the bad moment on Perthus was anything other than a feeding mistake.

Also, the sudden change into doing 6.9W/kg for 40 minutes on PdB just means it's all short acting and gigantic performances will continue to be pulled out of ass until the morale improves.
 
All suspense was based on bad assumptions, namely that Vingegaard would continue to grow into the 3rd week and Pogacar would fade.

Probably but what was your opinion before the Pyrenees? Didn't you say that Vingo can drop Pog by just riding hard enough and dedicating himself to attack? It doesn't matter what the suspence was based on - it was real and nobody could predict what would happen. There were doubts regarding Vingo's 3-week consistency but also it wasn't certain what would be Pogacar's form at the end (it was clear after the PdB H-bomb).
 
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Probably but what was your opinion before the Pyrenees? Didn't you say that Vingo can drop Pog by just riding hard enough and dedicating himself to attack? It doesn't matter what the suspence was based on - it was real and nobody could predict what would happen. There were doubts regarding Vingo's 3-week consistency but also it wasn't certain what would be Pogacar's form at the end (it was clear after the PdB H-bomb).
If he was better, that would be the way.

Then Plat d'Adet unfolds and you feel *** for even thinking it was ever close.
 
Exactly. How you ever could think it was closed based on a year he literally rode with a fracture DURING the race is beyond me but thats just me.

He is just the best of all time better to just embrace it otherwice *** wont be fun coming years.:sweatsmile:

Yeah, but don't you see how this is a problem. It's like a christian after conquering the lands "yeah, join us otherwise your life won't be fun", you demand conversion.

Just wondering, you being a massive Pog fan: doesn't it bother you a bit that a lot of his dominance could be an advantage on the medical front, rather than something else?
 
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Yeah, but don't you see how this is a problem. It's like a christian after conquering the lands "yeah, join us otherwise your life won't be fun", you demand conversion.

Just wondering, you being a massive Pog fan: doesn't it bother you a bit that a lot of his dominance could be an advantage on the medical front, rather than something else?
Name a great which it wasn't the case within this sport for? No it don't bother me the slightest. I find it to be more a excuse than anything personally.

Pogacar has dominated since he was 19 he is a phenomenon like we haven't seen before.

Since you ask, I don't think its part of the medical front is the reason why the peloton is going so fast its all explained thoughtful and is all out there and it makes a lot of sense to me at least and its many reasons not one.
It requires half the peloton to be on something its just not feasible to me at all. I think cycling has entered into a more formula 1 era where the best trainers, nutrition's ,physiologist are deemed very valuable hence why top teams are better than more other teams with a more amateur approach to the entire thing the way you can exploit that in training I think is immense. Van der poel, van aert spoke of this aswell they train differently now its very clear the approach to training and the whole thing has changed.

The world move forward that's what I think. Perfectly ok that someone else think something else though I'm completely fine with that :) I might also be naive to some degree since I havent been into cycling in the past idk. But I get I'm in the wrong thread when I don't think this so I apologies for that and leave you to it, sorry.
 
Here's another way to look at it.

Time gap from 1st place to the first rider not on the same team as a rider on the podium (and time from 3rd place to the first rider not on the same team as a rider on the podium, to adjust for dominant winners). I have included Lance, Floyd, Levi, Ulle, Kohl, Alberto and any other after-the-fact DQed riders because for better or for worse, they were there, but obviously not including riders who were yanked before the race finished like Ras.

2000: 5th - Roberto Heras +11'50 (+1'46 from podium)
2001: 4th - Andrei Kivilev +9'53 (+48" from podium)
2002: 4th - Santiago Botero +13'10 (+4'53 from podium)
2003: 4th - Tyler Hamilton +6'17 (+2'03 from podium)
2004: 6th - Francisco Mancebo +18'01 (+11'21 from podium)
2005: 4th - Francisco Mancebo +9'59 (+3'38 from podium)
2006: 4th (later 3rd) - Carlos Sastre +3'13 (+1'44 from podium)
2007: 4th - Carlos Sastre +7'08 (+6'37 from podium)
2008: 4th (later 3rd) - Denis Menchov +2'10 (+57" from podium)
2009: 4th (later 3rd) - Bradley Wiggins +6'01 (+37" from podium)
2010: 4th (later 2nd) - Samuel Sánchez +3'40 (+1'39 from podium)
2011: 4th - Thomas Voeckler +3'20 (+50" from podium)
2012: 4th - Jürgen van den Broeck +10'15 (+3'56 from podium)
2013: 4th - Alberto Contador +6'27 (+1'23 from podium)
2014: 4th - Alejandro Valverde +9'40 (+1'25 from podium)
2015: 4th - Vincenzo Nibali +8'36 (+3'11 from podium)
2016: 4th - Adam Yates +4'42 (+21" from podium)
2017: 5th - Fabio Aru +3'05 (+44" from podium)
2018: 4th - Primož Roglič +3'22 (+58" from podium)*
2019: 4th - Emanuel Buchmann +1'56 (+25" from podium)
2020: 4th - Mikel Landa +5'58 (+2'28 from podium)
2021: 4th - Ben O'Connor +10'02 (+2'59 from podium)
2022: 4th - David Gaudu +13'39 (+6'17 from podium)
2023: 4th - Simon Yates +12'23 (+1'27 from podium)
2024: 7th - Carlos Rodríguez +25'04 (+15'46 from podium)

*as Sky had 2 on the podium and Jumbo had 4th and 5th, you could count from the first rider for the fourth team back, which would be Romain Bardet in 6th +6'57 (+4'33 from the podium but only 49" from Kruijswijk in front of him)

You can see that no matter how dominant the top tier teams were (and many of those years we saw a team place two riders on the podium), usually 4th place would go to a team from outside of the podium teams' rosters as their superdomestiques would be forced to drop time or would have a bad day. Obviously time gaps in the Sky era were comparatively small but a lot of that was due to extensive control and tame routes meaning moves were made very late in the day. However, it's very telling that the only time the gaps have even come close to what we saw this year was 2004, the worst of the Lance tours, with secondary riders for Telekom (actually technically Ulle would have been the leader but Klöden was stronger) and Postal filling a huge drop-off from the podium to Paco Mancebo, the best rider who didn't have a teammate on the podium. Usually while there might be some large gaps from 1st to 3rd, the next rider from a different team is not too far back, and there's more than 3 viable GC riders, so either the domestiques have to do an incredible job to get up ahead of 4th place, or the team come with two legitimate GC threats, like Quintana/Valverde or the Schleck brothers. Even in 2002, Botero is a long long way from Lance, but he's still within 5 minutes of the podium, and likewise 2012's much-criticised edition - large gap down from Wiggins, but less than 4 minutes from 3rd to van den Broeck.

This year, however, the superdomestiques have still had plenty in the tank - or even plenty of their own superdomestiques to expend - when everybody else has been burned off.
 
Here's another way to look at it.

Time gap from 1st place to the first rider not on the same team as a rider on the podium (and time from 3rd place to the first rider not on the same team as a rider on the podium, to adjust for dominant winners). I have included Lance, Floyd, Levi, Ulle, Kohl, Alberto and any other after-the-fact DQed riders because for better or for worse, they were there, but obviously not including riders who were yanked before the race finished like Ras.

2000: 5th - Roberto Heras +11'50 (+1'46 from podium)
2001: 4th - Andrei Kivilev +9'53 (+48" from podium)
2002: 4th - Santiago Botero +13'10 (+4'53 from podium)
2003: 4th - Tyler Hamilton +6'17 (+2'03 from podium)
2004: 6th - Francisco Mancebo +18'01 (+11'21 from podium)
2005: 4th - Francisco Mancebo +9'59 (+3'38 from podium)
2006: 4th (later 3rd) - Carlos Sastre +3'13 (+1'44 from podium)
2007: 4th - Carlos Sastre +7'08 (+6'37 from podium)
2008: 4th (later 3rd) - Denis Menchov +2'10 (+57" from podium)
2009: 4th (later 3rd) - Bradley Wiggins +6'01 (+37" from podium)
2010: 4th (later 2nd) - Samuel Sánchez +3'40 (+1'39 from podium)
2011: 4th - Thomas Voeckler +3'20 (+50" from podium)
2012: 4th - Jürgen van den Broeck +10'15 (+3'56 from podium)
2013: 4th - Alberto Contador +6'27 (+1'23 from podium)
2014: 4th - Alejandro Valverde +9'40 (+1'25 from podium)
2015: 4th - Vincenzo Nibali +8'36 (+3'11 from podium)
2016: 4th - Adam Yates +4'42 (+21" from podium)
2017: 5th - Fabio Aru +3'05 (+44" from podium)
2018: 4th - Primož Roglič +3'22 (+58" from podium)*
2019: 4th - Emanuel Buchmann +1'56 (+25" from podium)
2020: 4th - Mikel Landa +5'58 (+2'28 from podium)
2021: 4th - Ben O'Connor +10'02 (+2'59 from podium)
2022: 4th - David Gaudu +13'39 (+6'17 from podium)
2023: 4th - Simon Yates +12'23 (+1'27 from podium)
2024: 7th - Carlos Rodríguez +25'04 (+15'46 from podium)

*as Sky had 2 on the podium and Jumbo had 4th and 5th, you could count from the first rider for the fourth team back, which would be Romain Bardet in 6th +6'57 (+4'33 from the podium but only 49" from Kruijswijk in front of him)

You can see that no matter how dominant the top tier teams were (and many of those years we saw a team place two riders on the podium), usually 4th place would go to a team from outside of the podium teams' rosters as their superdomestiques would be forced to drop time or would have a bad day. Obviously time gaps in the Sky era were comparatively small but a lot of that was due to extensive control and tame routes meaning moves were made very late in the day. However, it's very telling that the only time the gaps have even come close to what we saw this year was 2004, the worst of the Lance tours, with secondary riders for Telekom (actually technically Ulle would have been the leader but Klöden was stronger) and Postal filling a huge drop-off from the podium to Paco Mancebo, the best rider who didn't have a teammate on the podium. Usually while there might be some large gaps from 1st to 3rd, the next rider from a different team is not too far back, and there's more than 3 viable GC riders, so either the domestiques have to do an incredible job to get up ahead of 4th place, or the team come with two legitimate GC threats, like Quintana/Valverde or the Schleck brothers. Even in 2002, Botero is a long long way from Lance, but he's still within 5 minutes of the podium, and likewise 2012's much-criticised edition - large gap down from Wiggins, but less than 4 minutes from 3rd to van den Broeck.

This year, however, the superdomestiques have still had plenty in the tank - or even plenty of their own superdomestiques to expend - when everybody else has been burned off.

It's a nice stat but probably decided just by a single event - Rogla's withdrawal.
 
This year, however, the superdomestiques have still had plenty in the tank - or even plenty of their own superdomestiques to expend - when everybody else has been burned off.

Can't that be explained by the existence of more super teams as well? I mean I see how 2024 is an outlier, but isn't the crowding of two teams with most of the GC talent also an outlier?
 
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All suspense was based on bad assumptions, namely that Vingegaard would continue to grow into the 3rd week and Pogacar would fade. Galibier wasn't a moment of hopium at all. It was actually a massive slap in the face after San Luca. And that the bad moment on Perthus was anything other than a feeding mistake.

Also, the sudden change into doing 6.9W/kg for 40 minutes on PdB just means it's all short acting and gigantic performances will continue to be pulled out of ass until the morale improves.
Arguably Vinge did grow in the 3rd week... and was better than ever. He did struggle mentally by being beaten more than anything else the following days after PdB, but was then very strong in the final days. However, it wasnt enough.

Pog was just much better this year.
 
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It's a nice stat but probably decided just by a single event - Rogla's withdrawal.
Every year has some GC withdrawals though. Maybe not all as favoured as Rogla for that 4th spot, but still.

2000 - Zülle, Pantani
2001 - Moreau
2002 - Moreau, Sevilla
2003 - Beloki, Botero, Klöden, Leipheimer, Aitor González
2004 - Mayo, Heras, Zubeldia, Menchov
2005 - Klöden, Valverde, Igor González de Galdeano
2006 - Valverde, Mayo, plus all the guys that were withdrawn before the start
2007 - Rasmussen, Menchov
2008 - Cunego, Soler, Riccò
2009 - Leipheimer (admittedly few here)
2010 - Fränk Schleck, Vande Velde
2011 - Van den Broeck, Vinokourov, Horner, Klöden
2012 - Samuel Sánchez, Fränk Schleck, Hesjedal, Gesink
2013 - Van den Broeck, Pinot, Peraud
2014 - Froome, Contador, Talansky, Andy Schleck
2015 - Basso, van Garderen, Dumoulin
2016 - Contador, Dumoulin
2017 - Valverde, Thomas, Porte, Pinot
2018 - Nibali, Urán, Porte
2019 - Pinot, Fuglsang
2020 - Bernal, Bardet, Zakarin, Gaudu, Aru
2021 - Roglič, Nibali, López, Simon Yates
2022 - Roglič, Mas, O'Connor, Haig, Caruso
2023 - Carapaz, Mas, Dani Martínez, Bardet
2024 - Roglič, Vlasov, Ayuso, Bilbao
Can't that explained by the existence of more super teams? I mean I see how 2024 is an outlier, but isn't the crowding of two teams with most of the GC talent also an outlier?
It was being contested that two teams being super-OP was fairly standard and UAE-Jumbo was just a rivalry similar to USP-Telekom, Astana-Saxo or Sky-Movistar, and I was using the above to show that the gap between the super-teams and the field is way larger now than it has been in at least a generation.

And the nearest we got was still nothing like as big a gap between the haves and have-nots, and that was not coming after doing the Giro and a full Classics campaign, it was with Lance and his entire squad basing the entire year around the Tour de France and doing very little racing outside of it.
 
Every year has some GC withdrawals though. Maybe not all as favoured as Rogla for that 4th spot, but still.

2000 - Zülle, Pantani
2001 - Moreau
2002 - Moreau, Sevilla
2003 - Beloki, Botero, Klöden, Leipheimer, Aitor González
2004 - Mayo, Heras, Zubeldia, Menchov
2005 - Klöden, Valverde, Igor González de Galdeano
2006 - Valverde, Mayo, plus all the guys that were withdrawn before the start
2007 - Rasmussen, Menchov
2008 - Cunego, Soler, Riccò
2009 - Leipheimer (admittedly few here)
2010 - Fränk Schleck, Vande Velde
2011 - Van den Broeck, Vinokourov, Horner, Klöden
2012 - Samuel Sánchez, Fränk Schleck, Hesjedal, Gesink
2013 - Van den Broeck, Pinot, Peraud
2014 - Froome, Contador, Talansky, Andy Schleck
2015 - Basso, van Garderen, Dumoulin
2016 - Contador, Dumoulin
2017 - Valverde, Thomas, Porte, Pinot
2018 - Nibali, Urán, Porte
2019 - Pinot, Fuglsang
2020 - Bernal, Bardet, Zakarin, Gaudu, Aru
2021 - Roglič, Nibali, López, Simon Yates
2022 - Roglič, Mas, O'Connor, Haig, Caruso
2023 - Carapaz, Mas, Dani Martínez, Bardet
2024 - Roglič, Vlasov, Ayuso, Bilbao
Basso and Dumoulin in 2015 are very questionable GC withdrawals. Especially Basso!
 
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Basso and Dumoulin in 2015 are very questionable GC withdrawals. Especially Basso!
Eh, I just ran through the DNFs of the time and picked out a few names that were at least GC relevant at that point (so not including e.g. Froome post-pandemic or) Dumoulin would go on to nearly win the Vuelta two months later so I included him.

One thing's for tsure though, Roglič being a GC withdrawal three times out of four (and not having started in 2023) since his near miss in 2020 means him not finishing probably ought no longer be seen as an unexpected impact on the GC.
 
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Name a great which it wasn't the case within this sport for? No it don't bother me the slightest. I find it to be more a excuse than anything personally.

Pogacar has dominated since he was 19 he is a phenomenon like we haven't seen before.

Since you ask, I don't think its part of the medical front is the reason why the peloton is going so fast its all explained thoughtful and is all out there and it makes a lot of sense to me at least and its many reasons not one.
It requires half the peloton to be on something its just not feasible to me at all. I think cycling has entered into a more formula 1 era where the best trainers, nutrition's ,physiologist are deemed very valuable hence why top teams are better than more other teams with a more amateur approach to the entire thing the way you can exploit that in training I think is immense. Van der poel, van aert spoke of this aswell they train differently now its very clear the approach to training and the whole thing has changed.

The world move forward that's what I think. Perfectly ok that someone else think something else though I'm completely fine with that :) I might also be naive to some degree since I havent been into cycling in the past idk. But I get I'm in the wrong thread when I don't think this so I apologies for that and leave you to it, sorry.
The excuse “they were all doping” is the traditional excuse for the fans of dopers and the dopers themselves, but it’s not true and it never was. It’s a sick and evil mentality.
 
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It certainly is curious that we're seeing unprecedented gaps between the super teams and the "also-rans" at the same time as the EPO era climbing records are getting shattered day after day and W/kg numbers being back to mid-90s levels. It certainly points towards something cataclysmic happenning in the peloton with the top three or four teams leading the charge way ahead of everyone else.

When Bardet says his old podium-worthy numbers aren't even enough for top 20 any more it's obvious a lot of teams, and no shock that the French are among them, have been left in the dust.
 
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I'm just curious, what the hell are they on? In Hincapie's affidavit for the LA doping investigation he mentions how in '95 there was "a shift in the peloton" and he couldn't keep up. Since top 3 are smashing records, it does indeed seem like another shift in the peloton, and all that "they're superhuman" "it's training that's different" "nutrition has improved so much" doesn't pass the sniff test to me. Also, what kind of trainwreck would it be if Pogacar were caught doping after this insane Tour? Not a good look for the powers that be. I just wonder wth is the new EPO. Just carbon monoxide inhalers don't seem enough.
 
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