Isaac Del Toro thread

[Oldman]

Pogacar's team at last year at Giro wasn't as good in the mountains. When Makja was Pogacar's last domestique and Pogacar attacked, there were usually 8-10 riders in the group.

And in the Tour, even though the team was strong, Pogacar always attacked with his biggest rivals in the group, Almeida never dropped them like Kuss has done in some GTs.

Makja kills almost everyone and the remaining Giro Wannabe guys were looking at each other for the last podium places as they were way out of contention in the mountains (ie: irrelevant to the outcome). They knew if they gassed themselves trying to cover Tadej they'd be out the back. They were already down minutes to him so...no reason to move and jeopardize their precious podium aspirations.
Kuss, Roglic and everyone that helped JV are now on to other things. Jonas will be on his own with maybe Matteo trying to pace him, or leave him depending on JV strategy. It's too early to know what their strengths are.
When Pogacar attacked Tour rivals he already had a lead that gave him minutes to play with. He didn't need his guys to pace him at that point as they sat on every competitors move they could. What's worse? Being jumped by Tadej after repeated beatings or towing his teammate to a better GC position?

 

[Oldman]

It's blindingly obvious what's going to happen. Rog will limp along until he launches the bazooka on Finestre. Ayuso will drop like a hound dog in front of the fireplace, del Toro will wheelsuck the wheelsucker and win the Giro.

I'm not sure who is sucking whom but it sounds like a very family-oriented disfunction.
As for the hound dog in front of the fireplace....that is an uncharacteristic comparison as those dogs rarely move until there is a bear or cougar to pursue. Then they will chase and attack until the bigger predator kills them or is brought down. It's not pretty and the Apex predator usually succumbs in the end to the Hunter and the Hound gets some food and repairs, again: to the warmth of the hearth.
Fill in the blanks for the respective roles for this metaphorhic scenario, please.

 

[tobydawq]

This is the Giro 2004 all over again.

I don't think Mads will win nine stages.

 

[Berniece]

Del Toro to Ayuso after the stage in the bus

 

[Cycling111]

After the crash, he lost a few meters, but managed to connect without waiting for a domestique.
He have to be lucky, but also have attitude and not get complacent about the domestiques doing everything for him.

I don't know if he'll last the third week, but with such a poor route and such a passive attitude from the peloton, except for Bernal, he well deserved this situation because his attitude has been very proactive.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Abandoned by the team

(A minute ahead)

 

[QueenStagiaire]

After the crash, he lost a few meters, but managed to connect without waiting for a domestique.
He have to be lucky, but also have attitude and not get complacent about the domestiques doing everything for him.

I don't know if he'll last the third week, but with such a poor route and such a passive attitude from the peloton, except for Bernal, he well deserved this situation because his attitude has been very proactive.

What? Bernal and Carapaz have used the few opportunities. Ciccone is out of GC now, but Simon Yates also doesn‘t have a reputation as a wheelsucker.

 

[solo80k]

Professor Del Toro with the another day in the office...

 

[Oldman]

Professor Del Toro with the another day in the office...

He seems Golden with legs and luck. Week 3 coming....

 

[Valv.Piti]

Biggest threats are Ayuso, Carapaz and Bernal. I think only these three has the levels in the high mountains to win from this spot

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Biggest threats are Ayuso, Carapaz and Bernal. I think only these three has the levels in the high mountains to win from this spot

Do you think Roglič as a worse level than Bernal? Because I think there‘s a reason why Bernal hasn‘t gotten separation with his attacks yet.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't really believe Roglic can win from the spot that he's in given the crashes, his age and him not being a great pure climber. I think the ceiling is higher from the guys I mentioned

 

[Netserk]

The latter two didn't stop him nor slow him down on Moncalvillo.

 

[topcat]

The latter two didn't stop him nor slow him down on Moncalvillo.

You should set up a poll about the stage on which del Toro is going to crack?
Or is it written in gravel that he's going to crack on the Finestre stage?
Del Toro will win the Giro and then join a respectable team like Astana.

 

[memyselfandI]

It's thin line I think, he may end up like Almeida in 2020, it would be a shocker if he takes the GC, a good one ofc. It's just that there is some mentally very good competitors around him, his lead is not that big for coming days. Interesting stages looking ahead.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't really believe Roglic can win from the spot that he's in given the crashes, his age and him not being a great pure climber. I think the ceiling is higher from the guys I mentioned

And yet Rogla has consistently beaten them in the past.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So, what now, gaining more time on everybody. Will the team support him as a sole leader, or not?

 

[TourOfSardinia]

I am hoping for one of those moments like when Contador took it to Lance

 

[Oldman]

And yet Rogla has consistently beaten them in the past.

And he will be marked by Ayuso. It'll take Carapaz along to make it a crackable group, too.

 

[Cookster15]

Pogacar's team at last year at Giro wasn't as good in the mountains

When you are Pogacar that doesn’t really matter. He cruised to the win in that Giro. In fact, it has been suggested he even rode himself into form for the TdF.

There has also been grand tour winners who weren’t supported by a team of climbers in the mountains.

 

[SomeSome1010]

I don't really believe Roglic can win from the spot that he's in given the crashes, his age and him not being a great pure climber. I think the ceiling is higher from the guys I mentioned

The fact that he's good at TTs and therefore not a "pure" climber doesn't mean he's a worse climber than Carapaz or Bernal. Roglic's peak climbing performances are demonstrably superior to anything Carapaz or Bernal have ever done. If Roglic is not a great pure climber, no one in the Peleton is, except for Pog and Vingo.

The real question is whether del Toro's ceiling is higher or at least high enough to defend 2+ minutes, which is very well possible. This Giro is between UAE and Roglic.

 

[Cookster15]

I still don't know after today. Massive stages to come and he has been fighting at the front for much of this Giro and that must add up eventually.

Stage 16 has been suggested as the queen stage. Then we will really know Del Toro's climbing credentials.

 

[dazaau]

I still don't know after today. Massive stages to come and he has been fighting at the front for much of this Giro and that must add up eventually.

Stage 16 has been suggested as the queen stage. Then we will really know Del Toro's climbing credentials.

I agree we will see in the third week, but I'm sure Ayuso and Roglic would rather be using energy fighting up front than chasing in g3 after picking themselves off the gravel and pavement :/

 

[Cycling111]

Del Toro Cunego 2004 or del Toro Simon Yates 2018?

 

[Cycling111]

I still don't know after today. Massive stages to come and he has been fighting at the front for much of this Giro and that must add up eventually.

Stage 16 has been suggested as the queen stage. Then we will really know Del Toro's climbing credentials.

I think the only question is whether he'll be fatigued by week three, although with this route there's a better chance he won't collapse because the first two weeks haven't been as grueling as other routes.

Del Toro was an excelente climber in U23 , and the little we've seen of him as a professional was also good.
His performance at Tirreno 2024 was excellent for a rookie.
Last year, he arrived at the Vuelta fatigued after a long season. But his best stages were in the third week, and his best performance was a sixth-place in a mountain stage in a GT that was difficult for him.
With that data, I wouldn't be so calm if I were his rival.

O'Connor is supposedly a worse climber than Del Toro. Roglic beated him, but Enric Mas and Carapaz no,
being better climbers than O'Connor.
Some consider Carapaz more favorite than Del Toro, but Carapaz couldn't overtake O'Connor. If Del Toro performs better than O'Connor, it could be difficult.
This mountain is tougher than the Vuelta, but the last precedent is that they can't trust anyone or give them seconds every day.

Besides, he doesn't have the pressure of losing.

If Del Toro collapses like Simon Yates, the conclusion will be that he's too young and inexperienced.
He´s a lot of margin for improvement due to his age.
He didn't even come to this Giro to get on the podium; UAE had two other leaders. Del Toro is leading, but he doesn't have the pressure of winning that Ayuso and Roglic have. For him, a podium finish would be a result that wasn't even in his plans.

He'll be a little nervous given the situation, but he doesn't have the pressure that others feel.
Even riders like Carapaz and Bernal, who weren't favorites, will be more anxious to redeem themselves after poor results in GC.