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Itzulia Basque Country 2024, April 1-6

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Ayuso and his Colnago dog

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I think you misinterpreted his post? He is talking about Roglic and Vingegaard not working when they themselves are along in the break. Not when they are left behind and have teammates to close the gap. And it certainly wasn't just late in the race or in order to gap the sucker that pulled. It is exactly how Vingegaard lost a good chance to win Itzulia in 2022, by refusing to ride when he was in a break. So nobody else in the break worked, break got caught, and Vingegaard finished 6th in GC a few days later.
I can be clearer: I think if those two are in a break they will work until they have a gap they can keep; then start soft-pulling, depending on the finish. It's too early in the season to just cruise if they think that'll work. Early stages, if Jonas flat refuses to work too early when they have a gap I can see Roglic doing the same to bring Remco and others into the mix to spice things up. Closer to the finishing stages in a tight GC it would be different, IMO.
Jonas showed form solidly several weeks ago and this might be a training block for him and he could last year's behavior. It's hard to tell how much any prime GT contenders will commit if they risk compromise of their upcoming priorities, except the hungry 2nd tier guys looking for a solid result. They could upend any rope-a-doping.
 
I am really referencing races like Paris Nice Stage 1 2023 when Tadej and Jonas had a gap on the rest of the field after the 1st intermediate sprint and Jonas wouldn’t pull through. Same kinda thing with Remco and Roglic in stage races last year. I think that having 3 or 4 threats in the TDF might give Remco an ally on a long attack. Maybe he could pull something off this week.
Remco is pretty much a known commodity after 24 PN. He has a way to go to dominate the others unless no one cares to close on him. Itzulia could be a test of teams more than the guys with 1 on the number.
 
Congratulations to Paul Lapeira for winning the stage.

Rather bad weather and wet conditions on the road today, GC guys mostly doing a good job to stay on the bike. Some shoulder bumping still involved for Rogla and i seen some leg work further up the road. Considering a bunch of inexperienced and eager cyclists involved it was a good call not to get involved today. It could easily result in a crash.
 
Maybe, just maybe, if we're lucky some riders will go for it. I don't think anyone will go at it alone, since it's still 15km's. But if there's a small group of 3-5 riders that have 10s at the top, I might see them go for it as long as one of Vingegaard, Evenepoel or Roglic isn't in that group. If all 3 are there they won't do anything.
 
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Maybe, just maybe, if we're lucky some riders will go for it. I don't think anyone will go at it alone, since it's still 15km's. But if there's a small group of 3-5 riders that have 10s at the top, I might see them go for it as long as one of Vingegaard, Evenepoel or Roglic isn't in that group. If all 3 are there they won't do anything.
Too long flat, too much effort needed, too many chances in later stages and too many locals who are willing to drill it to win a sprint... it's almost impossible IMO.
 
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