Ivan Basso: Lance Will be the Strongest

[blaxland]

I think he has a decent shot at winning. The route this year is moderate. The competition (aside from Contador) is made up of second rate riders; that Sastre was able to win the TdF says a lot. His "100% back" t-shirt said it all. He intends to go right back to what he was doing four years ago. The UCI and the ASO know it, and they do not intend to do anything about it.

Second rate riders"I thought finishing twice second in the tour would make you more than a second rate rider?

 

[BigBoat]

Contador will teach him to have some respect to the "new" era with a whole lot of help from Caisse

Lance like OWNS the team. Whats Contadope gonna do? Get his 600cc+ blood refill dumped down the toilet. Lance will teach him to show some respect. ha ha, maybe he can do well we see.

Could contra keep up with this ya think?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q38Gyjv4EE&feature=channel_page

he he he what about this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6DmNMGEuI0

.

 

[BikeCentric]

Basso is just trying to put pressure on Armstrong - i.e. if Armstrong does not do any better than being a domestique for Contador (the most likely outcome and Basso knows it) then Armstrong is a failure in Le Tour and does not live up to Basso's statements. This is Ivan trying to play the mind games that he learned from the Master - Armstrong. He's not doing Lance any favors with these statements.

 

[BroDeal]

Second rate riders"I thought finishing twice second in the tour would make you more than a second rate rider?

Twice against who? He was never second when the likes of Vino, Ullrich, Armstrong, Mancebo, Basso, etc. were in top form. Heck FLandis was not much more than a second rate rider and he was able to put the screws to Sastre.

I still have my doubts about how Contador would stack up against the first tier riders of a few years ago. His time trialing has improved this year though, so you probably cannot go completely by what he did the last two seasons.

Even assuming Contador is on a level comparable what Armstrong was at before retirement, any number of things could happen to him. Take Contador out of the running and Armnstrong migh thave a very good chance of winning.

 

[stephens]

Bigboat, why if everyone is jacked is would amstrong never have made the top 30? i thought you would subscribe to he is the most talented in a jacked up world. Or is your point that everyone is jacked and he is so talented he could have been as high as 30 without it?

It'll be a lot shorter if one of us lays BigBoat's position out for you, so allow me. He believes that if no one doped, Armstrong would be a nobody. If he, or everyone, dopes, then he is 1st because his only "talent" is the ability to "super-respond" to the drugs. In other words, everyone else might pick up 5-10% from doping, but Lance gets like 50% better.

Where they come up with this stuff, we'll never know. The usual evidence is that Lance wasn't so hot in tours prior to cancer/ferrari. But hey, no one is a tour winner, until they win. The previous part of their career always looks terrible by comparison. Whatever.

 

[karlboss]

At 37 the body is still good to go. We never see it because after 8 years at the top most can't mentally sustain the effort. There are a few who have, but not many. Remember ekimov won the athens TT, hamilton aside. Armstrong will be a beast at the tour for sure. Winning I doubt it. I can't see him dutifully sit in a train up a climb for contador, or dropping back if conti is struggling on a climb early in the tour. It'll be the same as it was for the giro helpers for contador (LL at the giro) and lance. When one proves stronger the other will fall into line.
Contador will win over Lance because he will attack, and even if lance can go he'll have to wait...team orders. After contador is clear Lance may then have the go ahead to shake the others and chase. It could work the other way, but conti is more likely to go first.

 

[quadsRme]

I don't really care what Basso says. How many tours de france has he won?? In my estimation, LA will put in a respectable ride maybe top 10. Strongest? I doubt it. He didn't look so strong at the Giro. I understand it was training for him. But over 3 years away from the sport and at the age he is, it all works against him. I was watching some of the Giro replays today on U.S. , unless he gets the superman cape I for one do not see him being the strongest at the tdf.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't really care what Basso says. How many tours de france has he won?? In my estimation, LA will put in a respectable ride maybe top 10. Strongest? I doubt it. He didn't look so strong at the Giro. I understand it was training for him. But over 3 years away from the sport and at the age he is, it all works against him. I was watching some of the Giro replays today on U.S. , unless he gets the superman cape I for one do not see him being the strongest at the tdf.

the idea is to be strongest in july, not june.

he did shatter that collarbone pretty good.

seemed to be getting stronger at the end of the 3 weeks of the giro.

that said.

in my mind contador is defending champion. (he is ali to saste's joefrazier)
he is the peoples champion.

that in mind lance should help the defending champion.

 

[Anonymous]

the idea is to be strongest in july, not june.

he did shatter that collarbone pretty good.

seemed to be getting stronger at the end of the 3 weeks of the giro.

that said.

in my mind contador is defending champion. (he is ali to saste's joefrazier)
he is the peoples champion.

that in mind lance should help the defending champion.

After what I watched today, no chance he helps anyone but himself. Its over for Contador.

 

[Anonymous]

After what I watched today, no chance he helps anyone but himself. Its over for Contador.

so lance won?

beat the local yokles.

he's supposed to..

no big deal.

 

[Anonymous]

so lance won?

beat the local yokles.

he's supposed to..

no big deal.

Its not that he beat them, it is how he did it. You weren't there, but when has not knowing what you are talking about stopped you from writing inane drivel?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

In my mind contador is defending champion. (he is ali to saste's joefrazier).

Good analogy there Jack (we're showing our age you and I!)

Thought - I've been around a long time, and I'm sorry to say that Lance cleaning up at Nevada City is not the same as showing he's the best in the world. The 7-11 "B" team (domestiques and guys recovering from injury) used to go around the country and their entire team would lap the rest of the field in crits and flat circuit races. Top Euro pros are simply on another level. And even at nearly 38 Lance is one of the top racers guys in the world. Breaking away from Ben Jacques-Maynes, with a teammate's (Levi none the less) help, is not the same as winning the Tour. Ben would be clinging on for dear life to the back of the peloton in the Tour on every stage. If he were on a PT team in the Tour he'd get dropped in the TTT without doing any pulls, and likely get a DNF after about a week or so.

That said, Lance is one focused and completely driven SOB, and I fully expect him to push the others in the Tour in a very calculated manner, and might find himself in the maillot jaune after the TTT, or maybe on the podium in Paris if the cards fall into place, though I expect him to have problems in the high mountains and get dropped, though not as bad as in the Giro.

 

[BigBoat]

At 37 the body is still good to go. We never see it because after 8 years at the top most can't mentally sustain the effort. There are a few who have, but not many. Remember ekimov won the athens TT, hamilton aside. Armstrong will be a beast at the tour for sure. Winning I doubt it. I can't see him dutifully sit in a train up a climb for contador, or dropping back if conti is struggling on a climb early in the tour. It'll be the same as it was for the giro helpers for contador (LL at the giro) and lance. When one proves stronger the other will fall into line.
Contador will win over Lance because he will attack, and even if lance can go he'll have to wait...team orders. After contador is clear Lance may then have the go ahead to shake the others and chase. It could work the other way, but conti is more likely to go first.

I agree... 37 only gives a slight decline, no decline if Dr. Ferrari found some new "$hit that will kill them." Ever read Coyle's book? lol Did you follow the Nevada City cycling classic?

Contador I believe will not be struggling on the climbs but in the flat Individual TTs.. Thats where Lance should come out.

 

[quadsRme]

37 ok, if he would have kept racing, i agree. 3+ year layoff, can't see him being the strongest unless he can become LA of old overnight. that doesn't happen, wait i bet he could....Dr. Ferrari oh doc do you have something for me, zippidee do dah! chances are still slim, too many young guns to attack him.

 

[BroDeal]

I think we have to realize that the cycling establishment (the ASO, the UCI, and the media) wants Armstrong to win. They will all benefit financially if he does.

I give Armstrong a 40 - 50% chance of winning.

 

[BigBoat]

I think it will be the flat TTs.... Who can match Lance there? We;ll see we'll see...

 

[BroDeal]

I think it will be the flat TTs.... Who can match Lance there? We;ll see we'll see...

With some help from Dr. Ferrari, Armstrong may give Spartacus a run for his money.

 

[quadsRme]

I think we have to realize that the cycling establishment (the ASO, the UCI, and the media) wants Armstrong to win. They will all benefit financially if he does.

I give Armstrong a 40 - 50% chance of winning.

So are you possibly saying that others will be disqualified or have positives or non-negatives so the cowboy can be top dog? i guess if he has enough money he could buy anyone

 

[BigBoat]

With some help from Dr. Ferrari, Armstrong may give Spartacus a run for his money.

Yeah him... If Gustov could average 486 watts how much is "Spartacus" doing? Probably like 500 watts.... And yet Lance will beat them "clean as a whistle" ha ha.

 

[BroDeal]

So are you possibly saying that others will be disqualified or have positives or non-negatives so the cowboy can be top dog? i guess if he has enough money he could buy anyone

Not really. I am just thinking cynically that when most parties will benefit from something happening, it often happens.

 

[Delicato]

Twice against who? He was never second when the likes of Vino, Ullrich, Armstrong, Mancebo, Basso, etc. were in top form. Heck FLandis was not much more than a second rate rider and he was able to put the screws to Sastre.

I still have my doubts about how Contador would stack up against the first tier riders of a few years ago. His time trialing has improved this year though, so you probably cannot go completely by what he did the last two seasons.

Even assuming Contador is on a level comparable what Armstrong was at before retirement, any number of things could happen to him. Take Contador out of the running and Armnstrong migh thave a very good chance of winning.

Well, I will always remember how Conti has beaten LA's time on Plateau-de-Beille by 1.5 and 2 minutes respectively (Armstrong won on that mountain in 2004 and 2002). I think you tend to overestimate Vino and Mancebo. Undoubtedly, these guys were great GT riders, but Sastre and Menchov, for example cannot be rated as a second tier riders compared to them. Sastre's career is the great example of how a rider can continiously progress in terms of climbing, riding GT, recovering, etc. You also should note that in 2006 Sastre was a super-domestique to Basso and only was given a leadership in his team 24 hours before the start in Strasbourg, when Vino, Ulli and Basso were not allowed to start Le Tour.

Contador reminds me of Beloki, hopefully his career won't end in such a way as Beloki's did.

 

[BroDeal]

I think you tend to overestimate Vino and Mancebo. Undoubtedly, these guys were great GT riders, but Sastre and Menchov, for example cannot be rated as a second tier riders compared to them. Sastre's career is the great example of how a rider can continiously progress in terms of climbing, riding GT, recovering, etc. You also should note that in 2006 Sastre was a super-domestique to Basso and only was given a leadership in his team 24 hours before the start in Strasbourg, when Vino, Ulli and Basso were not allowed to start Le Tour.

I think this is a matter of perspective. While some might say that Sastre has steadily improved. I would not. He has always been pretty consistent, and I just don't see that he is much better than he was a few years ago. Sastre was a domestique to Basso for a reason. He was nowhere near Basso's level.

I will give Menchov credit for this year's Giro. I found that performance a lot more impressive than his one and half Vuelta wins. I thought his real Vuelta win was hella weak. I still do not see him as that strong compared to the riders that I mentioned. On a more normal Giro course, Di Luca would have won.

You bring up a good point about Contador's Plateau-de-Beille time.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I think we have to realize that the cycling establishment (the ASO, the UCI, and the media) wants Armstrong to win. They will all benefit financially if he does.

Can this be true?
I thought the ASO were conspiring with the LLDD, because they are haters?

I think this picture tells us all we need to know about how things have changed at Astana.
There's a new boss in town and it's the old boss.
[/quote]

It's all well and good people pointing out how much better Contador should be.
Most of us know how easy it is to remove "form" from a given rider, in a three week Tour.

I'm sure teams with the other contenders are hoping for the Astana internal power struggle to intensify as the race unfolds.

 

[msjett]

I agree Mellow, I am sure there are a few riders and teams sitting patiently waiting for Astana to implode.

 

[Angliru]

After what I watched today, no chance he helps anyone but himself. Its over for Contador.

...and we saw how much help he was to Leipheimer later in the Giro when his form began returning. He was riding his own race, not riding as a domestique.