Teams & Riders Jakob Fuglsang discussion thread

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

To both of you:

I know the precedence, but I also know how Fuglsangs Tour went last year, and Roglics Giro this year.

I think the only way you can win both, is if you have a stellar team protecting you, day in and day out, in both races..... and neither has that.

Obviously, we still has to see the Astana roster, but the one they put into Dauphine, is far from impressive

Correct, you also have to consider than he had LBL as a big goal, so he probably had his first peak for the Ardennes classics.
He has already won the Dauphine and wants to ride a great Tour, I can see him being a bit below his 2017 Dauphine level.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Ehm....

You don't have to 'try for the overall day in and day out'. If he does plan to race the TT and MTF as hard as he can (which he obviously will), then why in the world not contend for the overall as well? Its not like you have to get through northern france with cobbles, wind and rain to get there. You just have to sit in the pack in a not that difficult race and get ST on the other 6 stages. Its not complicated at all.

 

[Leinster]

Stage 2 is not a “sit in the pack and finish ST” stage. It’s 8 categorized climbs, none longer than about 5kms, in 180kms, with the last summit 18kms from the finish with no descent. It will be one for the break, but will have an impact on gc. Any self-respecting Liege winner ought to be licking his lips at the prospect.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

I think we'll see a more reserved Fuglsang at Dauphine.

He might go deep on the TT and the one big mountain stage, to test himself, but I don't see him trying for the overall win, day in and day out.

I think he found out last year, as did Roglic at the Giro this year, that you can't be in prime condition in the preparation race, and still be in peak condition over a month later, in the big mountains of the following GT.

I would not be surprised at all, if Astana rode Dauphine for Izagirre.

- at least that is what I hope for

I think this analysis is faulty at best.

Since 2012, it's only in 2014 and 2017 that the winner of the Dauphiné has not gone on to also win the Tour. Pretty remarkable, actually.

Also, there is a big difference between the placement of Dauphiné and Romandie respective to the Tour and the Giro. From the end of the Dauphiné, there is three weeks until the Tour. Just five days separate the end of Romandie and the first stage of the Giro.

This makes it very difficult if not impossible to peak properly for the Giro if you go all out in the Romandie, but the longer pause after the Dauphiné lets you recover from the effort and also maintain your high level.

In short, I hope he goes classics shape nuts in the Dauphiné. And Gorka Izagirre certainly has no chance.

You also have to consider, that prior to Armstrong it was very rare to win/podium the Dauphine and hold form to win the TDF.

 

[roundabout]

14/70 Dauphine winner won the Tour according to this article

https://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/article/2019/06/06/dauphine-and-le-tour-other-double

 

[tobydawq]

14/70 Dauphine winner won the Tour according to this article

https://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/article/2019/06/06/dauphine-and-le-tour-other-double

It has happened 15 times (I don't know who they forgot in that article):

Louis Bobet (1955)
Jacques Anquetil (1963)
Eddy Merckx (1971)
Luis Ocaña (1973)
Bernard Thévenet (1975)
Bernard Hinault (1979)
Bernard Hinault (1981)
Miguel Induráin (1995)
Lance Armstrong (2002)
Lance Armstrong (2003)
Bradley Wiggins (2012)
Chris Froome (2013)
Chris Froome (2015)
Chris Froome (2016)
Geraint Thomas (2018)

 

[42x16ss]

Thought so, half that list is post 2002...

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Thought so, half that list is post 2002...

And a third of the list is Team Sky.

 

[roundabout]

Re:

Thought so, half that list is post 2002...

in the 90's of the Tour winners only Indurain and Riis did the Dauphine in the same year

Indurain won, Riis did not, so I am not sure what the point of your arbitrary line is

 

[Red Rick]

I would wonder if that had anything to do with the racing also getting more controlled and more passive, and perhaps the Dauphine also getting some tamer routes.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I would wonder if that had anything to do with the racing also getting more controlled and more passive, and perhaps the Dauphine also getting some tamer routes.

Mostly down to the fact that Sky riders generally have done a June/July peak and not weakened one bit in the process. Being at 100% or pretty close to it in this race is a Sky-special since 2011. In some of these years, the route have been pretty hard.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I would wonder if that had anything to do with the racing also getting more controlled and more passive, and perhaps the Dauphine also getting some tamer routes.

Mostly down to the fact that Sky riders generally have done a June/July peak and not weakened one bit in the process. Being at 100% or pretty close to it in this race is a Sky-special since 2011. In some of these years, the route have been pretty hard.

More controlled racing makes key efforts for team leaders shorter and more intensive, which I guess is easier to recover from, and easier to win at 95%.

It's not only Sky/Ineos tho. Contador podiumed it 2009/10 and 2014 and especially in 2014 he was brutally strong.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I would wonder if that had anything to do with the racing also getting more controlled and more passive, and perhaps the Dauphine also getting some tamer routes.

Give me a break, last year there were four consecutive mountaintop finishes. Something similar in 2015.

 

[roundabout]

Re:

I would wonder if that had anything to do with the racing also getting more controlled and more passive, and perhaps the Dauphine also getting some tamer routes.

1997

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/jun97/lib97.html

2 medium mountain stages, 2 high mountain stages, 2 ITTs, 2 sprint stages, nothing hugely difficult

Typical Dauphine route scheme around that time would be something like Ventoux + 2 Alps stages for high mountains

Also, previously Tour winners raced the Giro/Vuelta before the Tour and I am not even sure they started the Dauphine (such as the case through most of the 80's and up to 1995 with Pantani the only exception after)

 

[Mayomaniac]

The thing with Fuglsang is that he already had a "spring peak" for the Ardennes classics, after flying all season long. It's his first race after lbl, so the goal is probably building a form peak for the Tour and not holding his lbl form until the end of the Tour.

 

[nevele neves]

Re:

The thing with Fuglsang is that he already had a "spring peak" for the Ardennes classics, after flying all season long. It's his first race after lbl, so the goal is probably building a form peak for the Tour and not holding his lbl form until the end of the Tour.

I hope the goal is for peak form.

Looking forward to him doing well.

 

[Serpentin]

Jakob is looking ready for the Tour!

 

[Valv.Piti]

This was basically an Ardennes race

Lets wait for the TT and MTF where we can assess his shape further. Jacob is great at this terrain, slightly worse in pure FTP efforts such as hard MTF/ITT, but his real problem is the recovery/off days. This race wont show if he has fixed that problem at all, but it will most likely confirm that he is one of the many, many top-5 contenders in the Tour by showing up at the two most important stages and delivering some pretty good results. My guess is 3rd behind Froomey and Pinot.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I agree. Dauphine won't show us his level in the Tour. The disrepancy between his pre-Tour and Tour performance last year suggests that. But in my hopes I am still clinging to that 7th place finish in the TdF13. A race where he did not lose his level over the course of 3 weeks. I genuinely think he has proven that he has it in him to deliver a consistent Tour on an even higher level than in 2013.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

A little underwhelming today. I did not expect him to be beaten by Adam **** Yates in a TT after the apparent weakness that Yates showed the other day, when he could not close the gap to Pinot and co. But the GC is still looking alright for Dauphine.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thought it was a pretty decent TT very much in line with what I expected from him tbh.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Thought it was a pretty decent TT very much in line with what I expected from him tbh.

Yeah, not bad. But I was just expecting him to be on par with Buchmann, Krujswijk and Yates (none of which are great time trialists, perhaps Kruijswijk having a slightly better record as the only one). Beating Quintana, Martin, Pinot and Bardet is what we could expect and comes as no surprise.

Apart from Froome's abandon, I do not see how his TT performance today brings him closer to a 2nd Dauphiné GC victory. But it did not do the opposite, either.

 

[JosephK]

Re:

A little underwhelming today. I did not expect him to be beaten by Adam **** Yates in a TT after the apparent weakness that Yates showed the other day, when he could not close the gap to Pinot and co. But the GC is still looking alright for Dauphine.

I think not a bad TT effort from Jakob, today. It looks like he rode the first part well, including up the hill. But he leaked a little more time on the final stretch . . . which is a little surprising. I would have thought that he would take time on Yates in that part of the course. Maybe Jakob put a little too much effort into the hill climb and had trouble regaining his legs afterwards? It's hard to say. Still . . . not a bad effort. If he is still building form for July, then this is not a bad sign -- he looks good.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Ehm....

You don't have to 'try for the overall day in and day out'. If he does plan to race the TT and MTF as hard as he can (which he obviously will), then why in the world not contend for the overall as well? Its not like you have to get through northern france with cobbles, wind and rain to get there. You just have to sit in the pack in a not that difficult race and get ST on the other 6 stages. Its not complicated at all.

I agree

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Ehm....

You don't have to 'try for the overall day in and day out'. If he does plan to race the TT and MTF as hard as he can (which he obviously will), then why in the world not contend for the overall as well? Its not like you have to get through northern france with cobbles, wind and rain to get there. You just have to sit in the pack in a not that difficult race and get ST on the other 6 stages. Its not complicated at all.

I agree

Not to mention that he has proved to have some skills on dem cobbles.