Jakob Fuglsang discussion thread

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tobydawq said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
It wasn't the best example, I'll give you that. People expecting Bernal to win the Tour would have been better because he hadn't done that before.

That doesn't mean that I don't disagree entirely with what you write. Expecting Fuglsang to win the Tour was not out of order after his spring where he was riding so much better than before. If he had been able to display that level in the Tour, he would certainly be in the running. Sadly for him, he hasn't been able to do that but that doesn't prove that it was delusional to expect it because he proved to have the physical abilities to do it.

Expecting Ineos to be what they usually have been in this Tour would have been stupid (not delusional, correct), because it would mean that people either didn't watch any races in 2019 (so in this case maybe uninformed rather than stupid), didn't trust their eyes or just ignored everything, believing that Ineos can produce magic, which they of course can't.
Look, i have nothing against the guy, i just need to make sure my eyes aren't rolling out of their sockets when people start hyping a guy for something when there is absolutely no reason for it. Yes, he was su-perb in the classics and i enjoyed watching him. That just doesn't mean he is all of a sudden turning into a GC threat in the twilight of his career. Those are completely different things. I mean, if next year Jungels has a stellar spring, will you expect him on the podium of the TDF? I mean, Jungels has proven more in GT's than Fuglsang and he's 8 years younger. Let's be real here. Another example, when Claude Criquielion had a stellar classics season, he was never considered to be a title contender in the TDF. And he also had a (much) better track reckord in GT GC's, including a podium in the Vuelta and a top 5 in the Tour. One (classics) has little to do with the other (GT GC).

To me, expecting him to win, was completely out of order. Even in order to get on the podium, so much would have needed to happen, unless you in fact expected him to make a "sky-like" step as GC rider at that age.

As for Bernal, that comparison doesn't work. When, in 12 years, it turns out Bernal never exceeded a 7th place in the Tour after cracking evey time in the third week (could still happen), then i'm sure nobody would declare him a favorite to win TDF at 34 years of age, because he won a classic 3 months before.
I really don't care much about past results if it's evident that a guy has taken a giant leap in level. You keep fixating on those and we will never reach each other.

And let me just ask you this: Who was the only guy who was better than Fuglsang during the spring races (especially the classics which everybody says has nothing to do with Grand Tours)? What would we have called people if they had believed HE would end on the Tour podium? And where is that guy now, more than two weeks into the Tour?
Clssics and GT is two different sports and the preparation to those are widely different. Valverde has plenty of years of spring classics domination which didn't make him favorite to GT's. Different dynamics, different peaks, different climbs. I agree Fuglsang had fabulous classic spring, but that does not mean automatically that improves with similar fashion for 3 weeks. Everybody watching this sport knows that.

Everything indicates Astana had very spring loaded training campaign and they did really well. Both 3 week races has so far been dissapointments.

And comparing to Alaphilippe is again fruitless, Ala is still developing to the rider he is going to be. He is special in many ways and will be special. Fuglsang has always been solid, but will not become special in the age he is now. That is what people try to say here.
 
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del1962 said:
Its not just classics Fuglsang has done well in pre-tour, he won the Dauphenine, podium-ed T-A and top 5 in Itzulia on top of two other stage race victories this season.
And so has many many Classic specialist with glimbing skills done in the past. Roglic was even more dominant and still declined in Giro. Lopez really good in stage races also. Holding classic form in week races is different again than going for 3 weeks.
 
Well I guess we don't have to wait much longer to see if the Fuglsang hype is justified. We are into week 3. All his 1 week stage race form is irrelevant now. He's 34. He cracked yesterday. Not looking good. He if he equals his 2013 finish he's done well. That remains to be seen. Looking at the rivals I see Pinot, Landa, Thomas, Bernal, Buchmann and Kruijswijk all stronger than him now. That would leave Fuglsang 7th in Paris. But only if Alaphilippe loses 5:27 to him. He has his work cut out.
 
It's probably wrong to say that he cracked as that would also imply that Thomas, Krujswijk and Valverde cracked. He's just a few margins below the very best climbers in the race without really blowing up. If he'd cracked he would not be within 3-4 minutes of the podium (considering the almost 2m time loss in the crosswinds)
 
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Cance > TheRest said:
It's probably wrong to say that he cracked as that would also imply that Thomas, Krujswijk and Valverde cracked. He's just a few margins below the very best climbers in the race without really blowing up. If he'd cracked he would not be within 3-4 minutes of the podium (considering the almost 2m time loss in the crosswinds)
Okay he didn't crack but it wasn't good compared to the pre race hype.

Lost 1min 21 secs to Pinot & Landa
+1.03 to Buchmann and Bernal
+32 secs to Thomas, Kruijswijk and Valverde.
+24 seconds to Porte

As I wrote, he has his work cut out to better 2013.
 
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Cookster15 said:
Cance > TheRest said:
It's probably wrong to say that he cracked as that would also imply that Thomas, Krujswijk and Valverde cracked. He's just a few margins below the very best climbers in the race without really blowing up. If he'd cracked he would not be within 3-4 minutes of the podium (considering the almost 2m time loss in the crosswinds)
Okay he didn't crack but it wasn't good compared to the pre race hype.

Lost 1min 21 secs to Pinot & Landa
+1.03 to Buchmann and Bernal
+32 secs to Thomas, Kruijswijk and Valverde.
+24 seconds to Porte

As I wrote, he has his work cut out to better 2013.
Definitely. I agree with your assessment that improving on 7th is not very likely. It can only happen if someone in front of him cracks.

This is also the reason why he needs to reconsider the objective as a 7th place finish is essentially worthless apart from the WT points that will help keep him in the top 3 on the Individual World Tour.
 
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del1962 said:
Its still the best indicator pre grand tours though
Gilbert 2011 murders 2019 Fuglsang. Where was he in TDF GC?
Dozens of riders managed good pre-Tour prep stagerace GC in the past, it means very little in the actual TDF. Dennis, Benoot, Teuns... only this year. Go back 10 years and you will find plenty more.

Cance > TheRest said:
mmmm. I wonder what Fuglsang's peak was if his current state is "the twilight of his career". Funny logic there
How long exactly do you think he will continue racing? Fifteen years? Current form has nothing to do with it. Valverde is the current WC, how many decades is he going to race again? Logic seems to fly straight over your head.

tobydawq said:
And let me just ask you this: Who was the only guy who was better than Fuglsang during the spring races (especially the classics which everybody says has nothing to do with Grand Tours)?
Tour isn't over yet. And even if he manages it, he's still a developing rider, completely different story.

bambino said:
Everybody watching this sport knows that.
One would think.
 
Fuglsang is a very consistent rider - has been among the strongest on the road for more than a decade. I would say that the most inconsistent run of results occured this year - with major results coming one by one. In these weeks, he is, again, the strong consistent rider as we have known him for so long. Many compare his achievements now to his spring successes, and who can blame them, but maybe in a year or two, we can look back at spring 2019 and identify that as the peak of his career.

From early 2019 I was thinking: Wow, he is really starting off strong - can he really keep that up for another half a year? Now, it seems like he couldn't quite do that. Not surprising - it's more surprising that his rival Alaphilippe is doing so well (to say the least).
 
Jun 22, 2010
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He was on his way to perhaps his best TDF, maybe even the best GT placing he's ever had. His best was a 7th from the 2013 tour. It's easy to speculate, but without the crashes he could have fought for the overall. Unfortunately he is a bit like Porte when it comes to the GT's, has too much bad luck and also can't keep his form steady for the entirety of the three weeks. His one day, three day, seven day racing is world class, he's one of the top guys out there and has been for what, ten years? He'll be 35 later this year, so when he fully recovers from this, how many good opportunities will he have to get on the podium of a GT? Perhaps focusing on short stage races and one day classics would be a safer bet at this point, or simply going for stage wins at the GT's, he doesn't have an individual stage win at any GT. He's too good of a rider not to have one.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Cance > TheRest said:
mmmm. I wonder what Fuglsang's peak was if his current state is "the twilight of his career". Funny logic there
How long exactly do you think he will continue racing? Fifteen years? Current form has nothing to do with it. Valverde is the current WC, how many decades is he going to race again? Logic seems to fly straight over your head.
Assuming he peaks late in his career, do you still think that he's in the twilight of his career? It's a simple question. Just say no or yes.
 
Jun 22, 2010
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ppanther92 said:
BullsFan22 said:
It's easy to speculate, but without the crashes he could have fought for the overall.
Let's not get carried away here...
Not today's crash, but from previous ones, before the high mountains hit. I know he was 5 minutes or so behind Alaphilippe prior to today's stage.
 
Another rider who should probably ride the Vuelta or Giro instead. Problem is his best form is usually in the spring so if it's not the Tour it has to be the Vuelta. Maybe some of the crazy routes in the Vuelta don't suit him sometimes. Lopez might do the Tour next season especially if the TT kms stay low as they probably will.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Cance > TheRest said:
mmmm. I wonder what Fuglsang's peak was if his current state is "the twilight of his career". Funny logic there
How long exactly do you think he will continue racing? Fifteen years? Current form has nothing to do with it. Valverde is the current WC, how many decades is he going to race again? Logic seems to fly straight over your head.
Assuming he peaks late in his career, do you still think that he's in the twilight of his career? It's a simple question. Just say no or yes.
Yes because again, i wasn't talking about form, but about the length of his pro career.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Cance > TheRest said:
mmmm. I wonder what Fuglsang's peak was if his current state is "the twilight of his career". Funny logic there
How long exactly do you think he will continue racing? Fifteen years? Current form has nothing to do with it. Valverde is the current WC, how many decades is he going to race again? Logic seems to fly straight over your head.
Assuming he peaks late in his career, do you still think that he's in the twilight of his career? It's a simple question. Just say no or yes.
Yes because again, i wasn't talking about form, but about the length of his pro career.
I think we have a different understanding of the term "twilight of career".
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
I guess so. Normally it means near the end of one's career. You seem to have a different view on the matter.
Normally, when the expression is used, there is also a decline associated with the the final part of a career. That is the whole point of twilight. Just before it goes dark.

a) Jakob Fuglsang is not declining
b) You cannot even say that he is at the final stages of his career yet just because he is 34. If he takes another 5 years, would you say that his 34 year old self was at the end of his career?
 

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