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Jakob Fuglsang discussion thread

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Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
I guess so. Normally it means near the end of one's career. You seem to have a different view on the matter.
Normally, when the expression is used, there is also a decline associated with the the final part of a career. That is the whole point of twilight. Just before it goes dark.
Let's create a separate thread about this issue. I suggest we call it The Twilight Zone. :lol:
 
Oh ffs. Now I have to listen to the likes of Rolf Sørensen stating he would have finished between 5th and 9th place or Henrik Juul thinking the podium still was a possiblity. God damn, can he just not stay upright so we can assess his real level in the third week once and for all (well, he did that last year, but still).
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Oh ffs. Now I have to listen to the likes of Rolf Sørensen stating he would have finished between 5th and 9th place or Henrik Juul thinking the podium still was a possiblity. God damn, can he just not stay upright so we can assess his real level in the third week once and for all (well, he did that last year, but still).
The winner of the race will have an asterisk now.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Valv.Piti said:
Oh ffs. Now I have to listen to the likes of Rolf Sørensen stating he would have finished between 5th and 9th place or Henrik Juul thinking the podium still was a possiblity. God damn, can he just not stay upright so we can assess his real level in the third week once and for all (well, he did that last year, but still).
The winner of the race will have an asterisk now.
Well, even the most optimistic havent gone that far yet...

He is 35 next year. Is he targetting the GC one again? It doesnt really make sense to go to Italy since he wants to ride a full spring schedule like this year, so I think no matter what, he'll do the Tour. Question is if he has gotten enough or this crash means he still will think about what could have been.
 
Everyone ages and has their peaks at different ages.

The older he has gotten the better he has become either from experience or not having to dom and it shows in the results he has gotten over the years. They were slowly getting better until 2017 when he started winning, which coincides with Nibali leaving Astana.

So it's fair to think he will gain good results the next couple years before dropping off too pre 2017 results. I don't think he will ever top 5 a GT nor did I ever think he'd get a top 10. He should just focus on one week, classics, and GT stages till he can't win anymore.

He hasn't had any luck as usual and sometimes that tells you it isn't going to work doing the same thing repeatedly. Hopefully he can close out his year with a bang im the Autumn.
 
Fuglsang won the Dauphine twice and has been 2nd-4th at the Tour of Switzerland during his career. Which suggests he has the capabilities needed for a grand tour. Truth is, apparently he can't produce that level of performance over 3 weeks. So the only grand tour the Dane probably ever had a chance to podium, always was the Giro d'Italia as it's extremely backloaded and sometimes comes down to a 10 days race + time trials for the GC favorites. But as someone stated, that race program would harm his classics campaign or he would attempt the Giro already running out of fuel after a busy spring.

Fuglsang should try to win the 2020 Tour of Switzerland as everything else is chasing dreams!
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
del1962 said:
Its still the best indicator pre grand tours though
Gilbert 2011 murders 2019 Fuglsang. Where was he in TDF GC?
Dozens of riders managed good pre-Tour prep stagerace GC in the past, it means very little in the actual TDF. Dennis, Benoot, Teuns... only this year. Go back 10 years and you will find plenty more.
Sorry but this is complete bull

The winner of the Dauphenine has won tour from 5 of last 8 editions, Gilbert has never done anything on a mountainous stage race, Teuns wins a stage race for punchers, Dennis and Benoot haven’t won a WT stage race in Europe so really poor comparisons
 
Re: Re:

del1962 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
del1962 said:
Its still the best indicator pre grand tours though
Gilbert 2011 murders 2019 Fuglsang. Where was he in TDF GC?
Dozens of riders managed good pre-Tour prep stagerace GC in the past, it means very little in the actual TDF. Dennis, Benoot, Teuns... only this year. Go back 10 years and you will find plenty more.
Sorry but this is complete bull

The winner of the Dauphenine has won tour from 5 of last 8 editions, Gilbert has never done anything on a mountainous stage race, Teuns wins a stage race for punchers, Dennis and Benoot haven’t won a WT stage race in Europe so really poor comparisons
Gilbert maybe not a good yardstick but 5 from 8 is not exactly convincing evidence either. How many of those 5 were 34 years old and a best GT result of 7th 6 years ago? Fuglsang is Fuglsang you can't compare to others. I was never sold on the pre race love all based upon week long prep races not Grand Tour pedigree.

Three weeks completely different plus riders peak for the Tour not the Dauphine. The Tour is at east one level higher probably two which is not evident until the 3rd week when recovery is crucial. I don't think Fuglsang has that in him or else you would have seen it when he was younger. Sad he crashed out now we never know for sure.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Oh ffs. Now I have to listen to the likes of Rolf Sørensen stating he would have finished between 5th and 9th place or Henrik Juul thinking the podium still was a possiblity. God damn, can he just not stay upright so we can assess his real level in the third week once and for all (well, he did that last year, but still).
I honestly do not see what is wrong with Rolf's comment? Is 5th to 9th not the interval that Fuglsang would have likely (obviously 5th and 6th less likely than the other other 3 positions) finished in the overall without his crash?
 
Had been much more realistic with 8th-12th. Gives the impression that he was on an upward trajectory which isnt true - all the riders above him climbed better in the Pyrenees. Add to that his very suspect 3rd week and 8th may be very generous.
 
Re:

staubsauger said:
Fuglsang won the Dauphine twice and has been 2nd-4th at the Tour of Switzerland during his career. Which suggests he has the capabilities needed for a grand tour. Truth is, apparently he can't produce that level of performance over 3 weeks. So the only grand tour the Dane probably ever had a chance to podium, always was the Giro d'Italia as it's extremely backloaded and sometimes comes down to a 10 days race + time trials for the GC favorites. But as someone stated, that race program would harm his classics campaign or he would attempt the Giro already running out of fuel after a busy spring.

Fuglsang should try to win the 2020 Tour of Switzerland as everything else is chasing dreams!
Main goal should be top 5 in Volta a Catalunya :D

If he rides it and finishes in the top 5 in Catalunya next year he would have a top 5 in all major one-week stage races (P-N, T-A, VaC, Itzulia, ToR, Dauphiné and TdS).

I don't think anyone else in the current world tour peloton can claim to have managed that feat?
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Had been much more realistic with 8th-12th. Gives the impression that he was on an upward trajectory which isnt true - all the riders above him climbed better in the Pyrenees. Add to that his very suspect 3rd week and 8th may be very generous.
Yeah, but say that Valverde cracks in the Alps, while Alaphilippe has his eventual meltdown and that Jakob had kept Porte and Uran behind him. That would make it a 7th place. Obviously he'd have to keep the level he's had, but there is not anything that suggest he shouldn't be able to do that. Biggest threat from behind would probably be Uran finding his rare 3rd week form.

Not that it matters much, but Rolf's assessment seem within the realms of reality. Obviously Juul is stretching it.
 
Fuglsang said today that he might have been able to complete the stage where he crashed - but he would have lost around 30 minutes and been in very bad condition heading in to the Alps. A CT will show if there are any fractures in his hand (the first indications are that there are none).

He mentioned the Vuelta as a possible goal for the coming months.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
staubsauger said:
Fuglsang won the Dauphine twice and has been 2nd-4th at the Tour of Switzerland during his career. Which suggests he has the capabilities needed for a grand tour. Truth is, apparently he can't produce that level of performance over 3 weeks. So the only grand tour the Dane probably ever had a chance to podium, always was the Giro d'Italia as it's extremely backloaded and sometimes comes down to a 10 days race + time trials for the GC favorites. But as someone stated, that race program would harm his classics campaign or he would attempt the Giro already running out of fuel after a busy spring.

Fuglsang should try to win the 2020 Tour of Switzerland as everything else is chasing dreams!
Main goal should be top 5 in Volta a Catalunya :D

If he rides it and finishes in the top 5 in Catalunya next year he would have a top 5 in all major one-week stage races (P-N, T-A, VaC, Itzulia, ToR, Dauphiné and TdS).

I don't think anyone else in the current world tour peloton can claim to have managed that feat?
Of course nice, but on the other hand i.e. Richie Porte could say he has podiumed all of those with one succeess in TA and Nairo with some stint in Dauphine. Top 5 doesn't sound so special in this category.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Valv.Piti said:
Had been much more realistic with 8th-12th. Gives the impression that he was on an upward trajectory which isnt true - all the riders above him climbed better in the Pyrenees. Add to that his very suspect 3rd week and 8th may be very generous.
Yeah, but say that Valverde cracks in the Alps, while Alaphilippe has his eventual meltdown and that Jakob had kept Porte and Uran behind him. That would make it a 7th place. Obviously he'd have to keep the level he's had, but there is not anything that suggest he shouldn't be able to do that. Biggest threat from behind would probably be Uran finding his rare 3rd week form.

Not that it matters much, but Rolf's assessment seem within the realms of reality. Obviously Juul is stretching it.
There is lots and lots of evidence of Fuglsang not performing well in the third week. Here's the big Pyreneen stages last year in the Tour, for example.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2018/stage-17
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2018/stage-19
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Valv.Piti said:
Had been much more realistic with 8th-12th. Gives the impression that he was on an upward trajectory which isnt true - all the riders above him climbed better in the Pyrenees. Add to that his very suspect 3rd week and 8th may be very generous.
Yeah, but say that Valverde cracks in the Alps, while Alaphilippe has his eventual meltdown and that Jakob had kept Porte and Uran behind him. That would make it a 7th place. Obviously he'd have to keep the level he's had, but there is not anything that suggest he shouldn't be able to do that. Biggest threat from behind would probably be Uran finding his rare 3rd week form.

Not that it matters much, but Rolf's assessment seem within the realms of reality. Obviously Juul is stretching it.
There is lots and lots of evidence of Fuglsang not performing well in the third week. Here's the big Pyreneen stages last year in the Tour, for example.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2018/stage-17
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2018/stage-19
And the other times he has participated in the Tour? :)

It would be cool with evidence about his numerous (?) crashes, too. Some claim he doesn't fall off his bike more often than other riders. I don't know if procyclingstats has this kind of information. It seems there is only information about recent crashes.
 
Fuglsang is now considering a different approach to the Tour de France. To do like Simon Yates has done this year.

It's just from an answer he gave in an interview, and he said in the same interview that it is very early to develop strategies for next year's Tour.
 
Re:

Danskebjerge said:
Fuglsang is now considering a different approach to the Tour de France. To do like Simon Yates has done this year.

It's just from an answer he gave in an interview, and he said in the same interview that it is very early to develop strategies for next year's Tour.
That was said jokingly.

Also, it would be a rather odd strategy, after losing 1,40 in a peloton split this year.
 
Re: Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Danskebjerge said:
Fuglsang is now considering a different approach to the Tour de France. To do like Simon Yates has done this year.

It's just from an answer he gave in an interview, and he said in the same interview that it is very early to develop strategies for next year's Tour.
That was said jokingly.

Also, it would be a rather odd strategy, after losing 1,40 in a peloton split this year.
Thats because you dont understand the strategy then. Its perfectly normal for some riders to take it super easy, sit in the back, not risk crashes etc. in order to win stages later on. Michael Rasmussen did that in 2007 actually. If you lose time, fine, if you dont, well, lets see if you can follow the best - if not, hunt stages.
That said, I cant see Fuglsang doing that next year either. He wants this so badly. But when he doesnt perform this year, which is his absolutele prime (its not likely he will be as good next year), I just cant see it happening.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Danskebjerge said:
Fuglsang is now considering a different approach to the Tour de France. To do like Simon Yates has done this year.

It's just from an answer he gave in an interview, and he said in the same interview that it is very early to develop strategies for next year's Tour.
That was said jokingly.

Also, it would be a rather odd strategy, after losing 1,40 in a peloton split this year.
Thats because you dont understand the strategy then. Its perfectly normal for some riders to take it super easy, sit in the back, not risk crashes etc. in order to win stages later on. Michael Rasmussen did that in 2007 actually. If you lose time, fine, if you dont, well, lets see if you can follow the best - if not, hunt stages.
That said, I cant see Fuglsang doing that next year either. He wants this so badly. But when he doesnt perform this year, which is his absolutele prime (its not likely he will be as good next year), I just cant see it happening.
It's very unusual for riders to suddenly start hitting the podium in their mid thirties and when it does happen such as with Peraud in 2014 it's because of crashes or something unusual happening. Horner being one of the other exceptions. Hesjedal was a bit younger. The tragic Agostinho managed it in the 70s but he already had a Vuelta podium at 32.

I think grand tours are Fuglsangs weakest format of racing. He always looked better in shorter stage races. Similar I suppose to riders like Porte and Dan Martin. He was flying in the spring races, that type of form rarely lasts a long time. I guess top five was possible at best.
 

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