thehog
BANNED
roundabout said:
He and Tobias were training partners. So no wonder the team leader would want him on the team. Makes sense, Ja?
Not the fact he was boning his sister.
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He and Tobias were training partners. So no wonder the team leader would want him on the team. Makes sense, Ja?
Not the fact he was boning his sister.
19th in the same race in 1996.
76th (!) in the time trial.
1 month before the Tour.
23rd and 24th with uncle Bjarne on the stage to Grindelwald. Must have been in blood harvesting mode. Hehe.
76th (!) in the time trial.
1 month before the Tour.
23rd and 24th with uncle Bjarne on the stage to Grindelwald. Must have been in blood harvesting mode. Hehe.
Indurain was well liked too, still is. Yet he showed more potential as a junior, much more.thehog said:
Jan did not need 1000 days.
You showed a newspaper from Australia, back in 1993 ''the walhalla on cycling knowledge'', I will not comment on how it is now but using that as a reference is poor, very poor in my book.
In the same article one Lance Armstrong is also heralded as the future of cycling, nuff said.
The simple facts are even simpeler, Jan is a product of East Germany, had a growth problem when he was young; the East German trainers know how to overcome such problems: understatement.
Had a nice amateur carreer on flat stages and then surpised in Oslo with the amateur worlds, yet he was not contracted by a pro team.
Three years later he is ripping the Tour apart. Welcome, der Jan.
Nowadays we call this a Froome.
But to be fair, Casper Ozers, the number two in 1993 also had a great pro-carreer.
Thing is it's hard to tell how many hard races he could ride in 1993-1994 and how well did he do.
thehog
BANNED
Fearless Greg Lemond said:
Think I'd vomit if you put Froome and Ullrich in the same sentence.
No one can do a Froome bar a Froome. He's just plain ridiculous.
I like Fabian Ullrich.
2003, Team Coast. Class.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXieZLUbCKc&sns=em
I think a few of us might be making things more complex than they need to be.
Jan (my favourite rider) won the tour in 97' because he had a lot of talent, trained hard, and responded better to his program than others did to the programs they were on.
I agree with RR. The 'who would have won' deserves it's own thread.
Jan (my favourite rider) won the tour in 97' because he had a lot of talent, trained hard, and responded better to his program than others did to the programs they were on.
I agree with RR. The 'who would have won' deserves it's own thread.
After all this debate, we are left only with natural HT as a solid basis on which to make a case for differential response to doping. Prior to the biopassport, a rider with a low HT could, by raising it to the 50% level, get more of a relative benefit than a rider with a higher HT.
It seems to me, then, that we should be trying to find out the natural HT of various riders. I'm going to start with LA's, because there is quite a lot of info publicly available, but I encourage others to report what they know about Ulle's, and other riders, particularly light climbers who some think were made unemployed by the EPO era.
This article lists seven values obtained after he announced his comeback, but before he rode any Pro Tour races. The mean + SD of these values is 42.14 + 2.31. Similar values were published later in 2009, during or between the two GTs he rode then. All of these values were above 40, except for one value of 38.2 at the end of the Giro, when a lower than natural HT is expected because of plasma expansion.
The mean HT value for LA is close to the average, which is in the range of 42-44. For example, in this study, which I referred to before in this thread, EPO was used to raise the natural HT of twenty male subjects. Before administration of the drug, the mean HT was 42.7%, with a SD of 1.6%.
The key question we are addressing, though, is how much benefit could a rider get from blood boosting pre-passport, when the effective limit was 50%. The linked study above provides one good estimate of this. In this study, EPO administration raised the HT of the subjects to an average of 50.8%, or almost 20% the natural value. The same study found that the (relative) V02 max of these subjects increased 7%, from about 63 to 68 ml/min-kg.
The 7% V02 increase reported in this study seems a reasonable estimate of the maximum performance enhancement LA could have obtained from blood doping. Since this is a mean value with significant variation, it could be greater or it could be less, but in the absence of any information allowing us to rationalize a differential response, I argue that this 7% value is the best indicator of maximum performance enhancement that we have. In fact, there are a lot of studies suggesting that elite riders benefit less from PES than non-elite, which would suggest the 7% value might be an overestimate.
How much advantage would this enhancement give him over other riders in the peloton? In Coyle’s study, a value of 81 is reported once during the racing season, but somewhat lower values, 70-75, in the offseason. This could be due to training, but also due to doping. Following cancer treatment but before he returned to competition, he recorded a value of 66.
Suppose we just conclude that his natural relative V02 max was somewhere in the range of 70-80. With the 7% improvement from blood doping estimated above, this value would be raised about 5 ml/l-kg. extending the range to 75-85. The upper end of this range would put him close to the highest values for cyclists I have seen, 92 for LeMond, and 88 for Indurain.
OTOH, to get to this value, he would have to start from a value of 80, which would already suggest he could be a pretty good climber. Yet he clearly wasn't prior to the late 90s. So one might argue that his natural V02 was in the range 70-75, and he raised it to 75-80. This would certainly be expected to improve his climbing ability, but not, I think, put him in the company of the elite, even clean.
Moreover, keep in mind that the peloton was not clean. If other climbers were blood boosting, even to a lesser degree than LA, their advantage over him might be reduced, but it would still be substantial.
To summarize, I have made the following assumptions about LA:
1) his natural HT, as reported in various media, is in the range 41-42
2) by raising it to 50%, he would increase his V02 max about 7%
3) given the most favorable estimate of his natural V02, this increase would probably allow him to become one of the best climbers, but only if the traditionally best climbers were clean.
4) If the climbers were doping, as many if not most certainly were, LA’s relative advantage would be reduced. I thus find it hard to explain, simply through an increased HT, how he could transform himself from a relatively poor climber to the best one.
I emphasize that I have made certain assumptions here, but I think they are the best ones possible under the circumstances. One can always increase the estimate of performance benefit by assuming:
1) his natural HT was somewhat lower. But even then, the best estimate of the V02 max increase is only improved a few ml/min-kg.
2) his V02 max responded exceptionally well to a HT increase, better than most other riders’. But then we are presuming he was just lucky. AFAIK, we have no evidence that he could benefit in this manner. It might be out there somewhere, but it hasn’t been made public.
3) Perhaps most important, there are performance measurements, such as time to exhaustion, which may be increased more than V02, and which might provide a better indication of a rider's benefits during an actual race. Science of Sport had a good analysis of this a few years ago. A larger benefit suggests the possibility of a larger relative benefit, though again, we no reason to believe that LA was a high responder without evidence.
It seems to me, then, that we should be trying to find out the natural HT of various riders. I'm going to start with LA's, because there is quite a lot of info publicly available, but I encourage others to report what they know about Ulle's, and other riders, particularly light climbers who some think were made unemployed by the EPO era.
This article lists seven values obtained after he announced his comeback, but before he rode any Pro Tour races. The mean + SD of these values is 42.14 + 2.31. Similar values were published later in 2009, during or between the two GTs he rode then. All of these values were above 40, except for one value of 38.2 at the end of the Giro, when a lower than natural HT is expected because of plasma expansion.
The mean HT value for LA is close to the average, which is in the range of 42-44. For example, in this study, which I referred to before in this thread, EPO was used to raise the natural HT of twenty male subjects. Before administration of the drug, the mean HT was 42.7%, with a SD of 1.6%.
The key question we are addressing, though, is how much benefit could a rider get from blood boosting pre-passport, when the effective limit was 50%. The linked study above provides one good estimate of this. In this study, EPO administration raised the HT of the subjects to an average of 50.8%, or almost 20% the natural value. The same study found that the (relative) V02 max of these subjects increased 7%, from about 63 to 68 ml/min-kg.
The 7% V02 increase reported in this study seems a reasonable estimate of the maximum performance enhancement LA could have obtained from blood doping. Since this is a mean value with significant variation, it could be greater or it could be less, but in the absence of any information allowing us to rationalize a differential response, I argue that this 7% value is the best indicator of maximum performance enhancement that we have. In fact, there are a lot of studies suggesting that elite riders benefit less from PES than non-elite, which would suggest the 7% value might be an overestimate.
How much advantage would this enhancement give him over other riders in the peloton? In Coyle’s study, a value of 81 is reported once during the racing season, but somewhat lower values, 70-75, in the offseason. This could be due to training, but also due to doping. Following cancer treatment but before he returned to competition, he recorded a value of 66.
Suppose we just conclude that his natural relative V02 max was somewhere in the range of 70-80. With the 7% improvement from blood doping estimated above, this value would be raised about 5 ml/l-kg. extending the range to 75-85. The upper end of this range would put him close to the highest values for cyclists I have seen, 92 for LeMond, and 88 for Indurain.
OTOH, to get to this value, he would have to start from a value of 80, which would already suggest he could be a pretty good climber. Yet he clearly wasn't prior to the late 90s. So one might argue that his natural V02 was in the range 70-75, and he raised it to 75-80. This would certainly be expected to improve his climbing ability, but not, I think, put him in the company of the elite, even clean.
Moreover, keep in mind that the peloton was not clean. If other climbers were blood boosting, even to a lesser degree than LA, their advantage over him might be reduced, but it would still be substantial.
To summarize, I have made the following assumptions about LA:
1) his natural HT, as reported in various media, is in the range 41-42
2) by raising it to 50%, he would increase his V02 max about 7%
3) given the most favorable estimate of his natural V02, this increase would probably allow him to become one of the best climbers, but only if the traditionally best climbers were clean.
4) If the climbers were doping, as many if not most certainly were, LA’s relative advantage would be reduced. I thus find it hard to explain, simply through an increased HT, how he could transform himself from a relatively poor climber to the best one.
I emphasize that I have made certain assumptions here, but I think they are the best ones possible under the circumstances. One can always increase the estimate of performance benefit by assuming:
1) his natural HT was somewhat lower. But even then, the best estimate of the V02 max increase is only improved a few ml/min-kg.
2) his V02 max responded exceptionally well to a HT increase, better than most other riders’. But then we are presuming he was just lucky. AFAIK, we have no evidence that he could benefit in this manner. It might be out there somewhere, but it hasn’t been made public.
3) Perhaps most important, there are performance measurements, such as time to exhaustion, which may be increased more than V02, and which might provide a better indication of a rider's benefits during an actual race. Science of Sport had a good analysis of this a few years ago. A larger benefit suggests the possibility of a larger relative benefit, though again, we no reason to believe that LA was a high responder without evidence.
thehog
BANNED
thehog said:
Looking back at Ullrich.
The Commonwealth Bank Cycle Classic was over 1200km long. The kid was 19! And won it!
Although not a lot of climbing but he did beat Knaven, Baranowski who rode for Liberty-Seguros and Scott Mercer from Armstrong downfall fame.
Jan appeared to take his time in the criteriums beating Robbie McEwen!
None the less at 19 winning a 1200km stage race suggest he could ride a large stage race - doped or not. He certainly wasn't dopng EPO and blood transfusions in Coffs Harbor.
His pedaling style is awesome to watch. Young kids take note on now to pedal straight and not contort the upper body.
Took me a while but here we go:roundabout said:
1992:
24.03.1992 Vuelta Costa-Blanca
GC
1 Gonzalez De Galdeano Alvaro (Esp)
2 Fleischer Thomas (D)
3 Sypytkowski Andrzej (Pol)
4 Dietz Bert (D)
10 Ullrich Jan (D)
25.04.1992 Uelzen, 107 km
1. Ralf Grabsch
2. Jan Ullrich
3. André Korff
26.04.1992 Zethel, 152 km
1. Frank Plambeck
2. Jan Ullrich
3. Erik Becker
03.05.1992, North German Road Championships, Amateurs, Harrislee, 182 km
1. Jan Ullrich
2. Ralf Grabsch + 1:50 min
4. André Korff
24.05.1992, German Amateur Road Race Championship, Wiesbaden, 197 km
1. Stephan Gottschling
27. Jan Ullrich
36. Ralf Grabsch
Tour de Berlin, 4 stages
GC
1. Jan Bo Petersen (Den)
2. Pavel Padrnos (Tsch)
3. Uwe Berndt
Points
3. Jan Ullrich
19.06.1992, Hildesheim, 143 km
1. Jan Ullrich
4. Ralf Grabsch
20.06.1992,Bad Sachsa, 140 km
1. Jan Ullrich
3. Ralf Grabsch
21.06.1992, Kiel, 75 km
1. Jan Ullrich
7. Ralf Grabsch
Sachsen-Tour
GC
1. Jörn Reuss
2. Thomas Liese
3. Heiko Latocha
8. Jan Ullrich (2nd in prologue)
Teltow-Rundfahrt, 480 km
GC
1. Mathias Sterly
2. Jan Ullrich
2nd in TT
November 1992, gets and invitation to the national trackteam together with Ralf Grabsch.
1993:
21.03.1993, Vuelta Costa Blanca
1. Andrzej Sypytkowski (Pol)
2. Michael Andersson (Swe)
3. Uwe Preissler (D)
10. Jan Ullrich, 1 stage win, 3rd in mountains
26.04.1993 – 28.04.1993, Thüringen Rundfahrt
1. Ralf Schmidt
2. Alex Kastenhuber
3. Steffen Uslar
10. Jan Ullrich
02.05.1993, North German Road Championships, Amateurs, Borgloh, 163 km
1. Dan Radke
2. Norbert Heller
4. Thomas Böckmann
7. Erik Becker
12. Jan Ullrich
09.05.1993, Oder-Rundfahrt
1. Klaus Lungershausen
2. Jürgen Werner
3. Lutz Lehmann
7. Jan Ullrich
20.05-23.05.1993, Uniqa Classic
1. Georg Totschnig
2. Dietmar Hauer
3. Jan Ullrich
30.05.1993, Gütersloh, 203,7 km
2. Jan Ullrich
31.05.1993, Dortmund, 202,3 km
2. Jan Ullrich
12.06.1993, Laatzen
4. Jan Ullrich
13.06.1993, Hameln
7. Jan Ullrich
16.06.-23.06.1993, Tour of Belgium Amateurs
1 Danny Dierckx BEL in 25h 09m 37s
2 Dirk Roosen BEL 04m 03s
3 Wim Feys BEL 04m 51s
15. Jan Ullrich
Ullrich won the TT
27.06.1993, German Amateur Road Race Championship, Denzlingen, 232 km
1. Bert Dietz
5. Jan Ullrich
TT
8. Jan Ullrich
30.07.1993, Neustadt/Weinstraße, 167 km
1. Jan Ullrich
10. André Korff
15. Erik Becker
04.07.1993, Bonn, 180 km
4. Jan Ullrich
07.07.-11.07.1993, Bohemia-Rundfahrt, 840 km
1. Jan Ullrich
2. Jörn Reuss + 2 min
3. Alex Kastenhuber
Ullrich wins the TT
18.07.1993, Mannheim, 160 km
1. Michael Rich
10. Jan Ullrich
09.08.-15.08.1993 Int. Regio-Tour
1. Pascal Herve
2. Erich Spuler
3. Alexandre Vinokourov
5. Michael Boogerd
7. Jan Ullrich
Ullrich wins the TT
28.08.1993, Worlds Amateur Road Race, Oslo, 184 km
1. Jan Ulrich
2. Kaspers Ozers
3. Lubor Tesar
31.08.1993, City Night Berlin
3. Jan Ullrich
05.09.1993, Hannover-Linden
3. Jan Ullrich
12.09.1993, Prag, 75 km
1. Trakl
2. Zenon Jaskula
3. Jan Ullrich
03.10.1993, Frankfurt/Main, 154,2 km
12. Jan Ullrich
08.10.1993, Pazific Power Commonwealth Bank Criterium Series
Mudgee – 1. Jan Ullrich
Tamworth – 1. Jan Ullrich
Lithgow – 8. Jan Ullrich
Gunnedan – 10. Jan Ullrich
23.10.1993, Pazific Power Commonwealth Bank Tour
1. Jan Ullrich
2. Dariusz Baranowski (Pol) + 0.03 min
3. Tomasz Brozyna (Pol)
3 stage wins
1994:
05.03.1994 Rapport Toer
1. Mike Weissmann
1. Michael Rich
2. Alex Pedersen
3. Claus-Michael Möller
? Jan Ullrich
Ullrich 3 stages wins and the sprint classification.
18.03.1994, Kaiserstuhl-Tuniberg-Rundfahrt
1 stage win
27.03.1994, Rund um Wiesbaden, 171 km
1. Jens Zemke
2. Jan Ullrich
10. Ralf Grabsch
12.04.-21.04.1994, Niedersachsen-Rundfahrt, 1.617,5 km
1. Jens Voigt
2. Jan Ullrich + 0.50 min
3. Ralf Schmidt
Ullrich wins 3 stage
01.05.1994, Rund um den Henninger Turm, Amateurs, 179 km
1. Paul Konings (Ned)
2. Jörn Reuß
3. Jan Ullrich
06.05.-15.05.1994, Peace Race, 1.354 km
1. Jens Voigt
2. Ralf Grabsch
3. Frantisek Trakl (Tsch)
12. Jan Ullrich
http://www.cyclingarchives.com/voorloopfiche.php?wedstrijdvoorloopid=1980
6th in TT, 51 seconds down on Pavel Padrnos
22.05.1994, German Mountain Championships, Bad Säckingen, 96 km
1. Stephan Gottschling
2. Jan Ullrich
3. Jürgen Rodenbeck
29.05.1994, German Amateur Road Race, Bonn
1. Dirk Baldinger
2. Tobias Steinhauser
3. Ralf Schmidt
Ullrich in peloton
15.06.-26.06.1994, Baby-Giro
1. Leonardo Piepoli
2. Ruggero Borghi
3. Francesco Secchiari
Ullrich's classification is unknown, he came in second on the TT
03.07.1994, German TT Championships
1. Jens Lehmann
2. Jan Ullrich
3. Michael Rich
09.08.-14.08.1994, Regio-Tour
1. Laurent Brochard
2. Lars Johnsen
3. Christophe Mengin
Ullrich's postition unclear, no top ten:
http://www.cyclingarchives.com/ritfiche.php?ritid=87175#first
Comes in 3rd on the time trial, behind Rich and Voigt.
23.08.1994, Worlds Amateurs
1. Alex Pedersen
2. Milan Dvorscik
3. Christophe Mengin
28. Jan Ullrich
25.08.1994, Worlds TT Elite, Catania, 42 km
1. Chris Boardman
2. Andrea Chiurato + 0:48
3. Jan Ullrich + 1:51
5. Abraham Olano
13. Alex Zülle
03.09.1994, Hamburg-Schneisen
1. Jan Ullrich
2. Erik Becker
04.09.1994, Hamburg-Volksdorf
1. Jan Ullrich
2. Robert Sienders (Ned)
17.09.1994, Harz-Rundfahrt (Magdeburg)
1. Jan Ullrich
03.10.1994, Bad-Sulzbach, 161,6 km
1. Jan Ullrich
13.10.1994, Sanitarium GP Series
Jan Ullrich
1 Hurstville
1 Lithgow
1 Tamworth
3 Gunnedah
22.10.1994, Commonwealth Bank Tour
1. Jens Voigt
2. Michael Andersson (Swe)
3. Jens Zemke
5. Robbie McEwen (Aus)
Jan Ullrich unknown, wins one stage, looks like a sprinter festival:
http://www.cyclingarchives.com/wedstrijdfiche.php?wedstrijdid=1148
03.11.1994, Tour o´Hawaii
Wins prologue and a stage.
1995:
http://www.cyclingarchives.com/coureurfiche.php?coureurid=6969
And so on.
I cant find the results of the Baby Giro 1994, perhaps the Germans abandonded? Jens Voigt should also have gone for GC glory!
Fearless Greg Lemond said:
You do realize that Voigt is more than 2 years older as Ullrich, right?
I guess Greg Lemond would have won everything single one of those races at age 18-20?
Bavarianrider said:
Nah. Greg didn't win that much internationally between 18 and 20. Heck, at 18, Greg was only allowed to ride the Junior World Championship.
Greg had to wait until he was 19 to win the Dauphine Libere.
But, what do you mean 18-20? Wasn't Ullrich 21 in 1994?
Dave.
Fearless Greg Lemond said:
wow that looks like a lot of work.
His results are very impressive, certainly no flash in the pan.
thehog
BANNED
D-Queued said:
He was 20 until December 1994.
19 when he won the CBCC over 1200km.
Ulle was the real deal.
Lovely chap.
thehog
BANNED
D-Queued said:
Greg wasn't 19 when he won the Dauphine, he was 22.
He turned 20 in June 1981.
Lemond's palmares are very similar to Ullrich in their early years.
Greg was also an ITT’er rather than a climber like Ullrich
But that’s normal. A lot of juniors are a bit of everything until they specialize.
1981 (age 20)
Coors Classic
Deux étapes de la Coors Classic
3ème du Dauphiné-Libéré
3ème du Tour du Tarn
1982 (age 21)
Tour de l'Avenir
Trois étapes du Tour de l'Avenir
Une étape de Tirreno-Adriatico
2ème du Championnat du Monde
2ème du Tour Méditerranéen
3ème du Tour de Corse
3ème du Tour des Amériques
1983 (age 22)
Championnat du Monde
Dauphiné-Libéré
Trois étapes du Dauphiné-Libéré
Une étape du Tour Méditerranéen
Critérium des As
2ème du Grand Prix des Nations
2ème du Tour de Lombardie
ANCrider said:
Yes, and it was very easy to spot the east Germans on the Olympic team. Your point is?
thehog said:
Hi,
Yes, I was wrong about the Dauphine, but so are you.
He was 19. But, he came third, not first as I erroneously reported, and din't win until he was 21.
Greg's Birthday is June 26. Pretty sure that came after the finish of the race.
I don't know how you can compare Ullrich and LeMond at the same age. Jan rode mostly in Germany, and Greg rode mostly in the US at that age.
The only crossover appears to be JR Worlds.
Greg did better.
What does that mean?
Who knows.
Dave.
lol at the very similar palmares.
Ullrich diddly-fiddly squat as a pro and suddenly 101 seconds away from winning the Tour.
Ullrich diddly-fiddly squat as a pro and suddenly 101 seconds away from winning the Tour.
roundabout said:
I don't have to spell out why Ullrich, and let's assume he was very talented, did very little in his early pro years and why you can't compare that to the era of the young Greg LeMond?
Let's be clear, Ullrich doped and did EPO and that got him within a whisker of winning in '96 and got him to winning in '97. Ullrich could not have won a TdF in that era clean, but Greg LeMond wouldn't have won clean in that era either. That is not denied by anybody here. The question we are trying to answer is whether he could have been there or thereabouts in a cleaner era like for example that of Greg LeMond or that he was just a super-responsive one day- and ITT-speciliast who needed the EPO to get where he ended up.
GJB123 said:I don't have to spell out why Ullrich, and let's assume he was very talented, did very little in his early pro years and why you can't compare that to the era of the young Greg LeMond?
Let's be clear, Ullrich doped and did EPO and that got him within a whisker of winning in '96 and got him to winning in '97. Ullrich could not have won a TdF in that era clean, but Greg LeMond wouldn't have won clean in that era either. That is not denied by anybody here. The question we are trying to answer is whether he could have been there or thereabouts in a cleaner era like for example that of Greg LeMond or that he was just a super-responsive one day- and ITT-speciliast who needed the EPO to get where he ended up.
And the only honest answer to this is we don't know.
Yeah, that must be why Jan ended up 34 seconds down on Olano in the 1995 Vuelta prologue. In 7K that is. Another 5 minutes down in a 41K TT that Vuelta.thehog said:
He did much better in the mountains, losing only 32 minutes on stage 8, climbing with mountain goats like:
105. Wust (Cat/AIe) a32’ 29
106. Knaven(TVM/Hol)id.
122. Ozers(Mot/Lit)id.
123. Abdosjaparoe (Noe/Uzb)id.
12S. Calcaterra (Sae/Ita)íd.
127. Livingston (Mot/USA)id.
129. Hincapie (MoR/USA)id.
135. Vogels (Nov/***)id.
139. Ulrich (Tel/Ale)id.
140.Van Hooydonck(Nos/8e1)id.
144. Simeoni (Car/Isa)id.
145. Andreu(MoR/U
The next day he climbed with the same goats, losing only 15 minutes.
Abandoning on stage 15, 1 hour and 52 minutes down in GC, surrounded by guys like
109. Van Petegem (TVM/BeI).al h.52’31”
110. Weltz(Mot/Din)a 18.52’ 53”
111. Wesemann (Tel/Ale)al h.53’44”
112. Ozers (Mot/lit)al h.55’OS”
113. Livingston (Mol/USA).... al h.55’24”
114. Meler ÇFVM/Sui)al h.56’30”
115. Lance(Gan/Fra)alh.57’03”
116. Kummer (Tel/Ale)al h.57’32”
117. Van Hooydonck(Nov/BeI)a 1 h.58’23
A full ten months later der Ulle was 101 seconds down to Bjarne for the Tour win. Gotta love them marginal gains. I do wonder what guys like Kasper Ozers were thinking, or Bouwmans, or Livingston. Even Bernd Dietz showed more climbing abilities. Or Boogerd for that matter.
Not only that, in a lot of newsitems surrounding Ullrich in 1993/1994 the word 'SPURT' is found, spurt means sprint.
No doubt he was a very talented rider, so was Voigt, so was Rumsas etc etc.
I agree, to a certain extend. Too bad I cant find the 1994 Baby Giro GC.
Fearless Greg Lemond said:
Again are these results really a surprise if he was relative young pro who wasn't on the gear yet against a field that was already charged to the eye balls on EPO.
Like I said, no doubt he benefited mightily from using EPO in 96 and 97 as did most of the peloton. He wouldn't have won a TdF in that era without reverting to PED's. However these results in itself say diddly sh!t on how he would have done cleanly in a O2-vector doping free field. None whatsoever and no amount of posturing will change that.
As del1962 and MI said there is no real way of knowing. We don't know what he would have done clean in a LeMond-type era nor do we know for sure whether he is a super responder as RR and you claim.
I like the guy and liked he style so I like to think he would have been the next best thing since sliced bread (or really the next best thing since LeMond) in a clean(er) era and the was therefore more robbed than robber, but the fact is that I can't tell. That is the blight of that era.
GJB123 said:I don't have to spell out why Ullrich, and let's assume he was very talented, did very little in his early pro years and why you can't compare that to the era of the young Greg LeMond?
Let's be clear, Ullrich doped and did EPO and that got him within a whisker of winning in '96 and got him to winning in '97. Ullrich could not have won a TdF in that era clean, but Greg LeMond wouldn't have won clean in that era either. That is not denied by anybody here. The question we are trying to answer is whether he could have been there or thereabouts in a cleaner era like for example that of Greg LeMond or that he was just a super-responsive one day- and ITT-speciliast who needed the EPO to get where he ended up.
The only thing we can say for sure is that Ekimov would have spat on him for not doping.
Dave.
What we do know is Ullrich beat Olano in 1994 Worlds TT, and now loses 5 minutes in the TT of the Vuelta, over 40K's. He even lost 2 minutes on the great TT'er Bouwmans, slower than Boogerd. For somenone who beat the next guys a year before:GJB123 said:
1.Boardman(GB) 49.34
(Media:50,832km/li)
2. Chiurato (Ita) a48
3. Ullrich al’ 1.50’
4. Breükink á2.02’
5. Olano(Esp)a. 2’.16
6. Emonds(BeI) 2.18
7. Marie (Fra) 2.31
8. Vogels (Ms) 2.41
9. Jaskula(Pol) a2.51
10.Rich a3’O4
11.Karlsson($ue) a3O9
12.Mauri(tsp) a317’
13,Zulle(Sui) a3’21
14. Hodge(Aiis) a3’27
that is very poor. Or do you think those bolded ones were clean in 1994? Maybe you will find this a nice read:
http://www.hbvl.be/archief/guid/dui...?artikel=69630206-e318-4e89-a5ca-02c32d9ed5b8
Perhaps Jan was also 'prepared' for the 1994 Worlds TT.
We do know he was climbing with Livingston/Andreu/van Hooijdonck, who were riding on bread and water at that time. And, in the time trials comparable or faster.
Was Livingston the big GC boy after he went on Edgar? Uh uh.
http://hemeroteca-paginas.mundodeportivo.com./EMD01/HEM/1995/09/10/MD19950910-036.pdf
When you look at the Tour 1996 he beats Olano with two minutes, that is a gain of 7 minutes! Olano, a Ferrari protege. He gains 10 minutes on Zulle on Fuentes fuel. Six on Riis, on Jet fuel, etc etc in less than a year.
http://www.dewielersite.net/db2/wielersite/ritfiche.php?ritid=147668#first
Superresponder in the category of Armstrong. But okay, a nice gentle guy.
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