João Almeida - Bota Lume

[groogster]

I think the fact that I started liking Almeida after Stelvio and Vingegaard the second I saw him on Angliru has something to do with how I see Almeida and positioning. Vingegaard is just so good at it even before he won TdF. So my perspectives are extreme.

I never expects the riders I really like to do really well so there's that bias too. But my guess would be either Almeida ends up with a GT win in his palmares. Or with some GT podiums. Sort of.

But we'll see. (I'm not even going to pretend not to be negatively biased towards riders I like )

not being biased towards something or someone we like it’s one of the most difficult exercises our racional has to make. But there’s no question that Almeida is by now one of the most exciting prospects for GC contention in the next years to come. If he develops even further, which seems reasonable being so young, he will surely podium a GT, if he wins it or not it’s an entire different ball game.

 

[noob]

Was Almeida held up by the crash? Otherwise I'd conclude that he struggles in rain. Not like in a disastrous way but in a way that it factor in.

 

[groogster]

Was Almeida held up by the crash? Otherwise I'd conclude that he struggles in rain. Not like in a disastrous way but in a way that it factor in.

He always struggles in rain. Only once he performed well that i can think of, in last year Giro at the stage of Cortina D'Ampezzo where in the rain he went in the breakaway and ended up 6th.
When the weather is like today he tends to underperform, like we saw this year at stage 6 of Catalunya for instance.
Still I think that he will grow stronger at this vuelta and with a chance of top3 if he can perform as expected in the itt (believe that he'll lose around 1 minute to Evenepoel and maybe Roglic but will gain time against other GC contenders). Then at Sierra Nevada he will have to be at the top of his game to have a chance to fight for the podium

 

[carolina]

Was Almeida held up by the crash? Otherwise I'd conclude that he struggles in rain. Not like in a disastrous way but in a way that it factor in.

He paced himself like he always does.

Before the Vuelta he said he wasn't in great shape.

 

[noob]

He paced himself like he always does.

Before the Vuelta he said he wasn't in great shape.

Wow I didn't know he had said that, considered how well he went in Burgos.

He always struggles in rain. Only once he performed well that i can think of, in last year Giro at the stage of Cortina D'Ampezzo where in the rain he went in the breakaway and ended up 6th.
When the weather is like today he tends to underperform, like we saw this year at stage 6 of Catalunya for instance.
Still I think that he will grow stronger at this vuelta and with a chance of top3 if he can perform as expected in the itt (believe that he'll lose around 1 minute to Evenepoel and maybe Roglic but will gain time against other GC contenders). Then at Sierra Nevada he will have to be at the top of his game to have a chance to fight for the podium

Exactly this! That breakaway giro stage is the weird exception.

Last year tour of Deutshland I'd say he looked bordering comically bothered by the rain. Not the wet roads necessarily, but more like he looked really frustrated and messed around with glasses on and off etc. So I'd say it's more about the physical sensation and the mess. (Kind of like Hindley and the rain coat )

Yesterday I didn't see him bothered like that. He looked really composed.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Yesterday I didn't see him bothered like that. He looked really composed.

WTF are you talking about? I only saw fog and some shades...kinda like the scenario that fits Almeida ghostly appearances

 

[noob]

WTF are you talking about? I only saw fog and some shades...kinda like the scenario that fits Almeida ghostly appearances

A brief moment before the fog they zoomed in on his face.

Now I cannot stop laughing. He's such a troll

 

[noob]

He has fallen almost two minutes behind Ayuso now.

 

[carolina]

Ayuso is doing really well, but we still don't know if he's going to hold his form for the whole race. I have my doubts, but after Pogacar, I can believe everything.

Every rider that was in the Giro seems to be worst then the rest, Almeida is no exception. I hope his form increases in the next week.

His time trial is much worst then last year, so I'm not expecting a great day on tuesday.

He can still finish top-5, IMO.

 

[noob]

Ayuso is doing really well, but we still don't know if he's going to hold his form for the whole race. I have my doubts, but after Pogacar, I can believe everything.

Every rider that was in the Giro seems to be worst then the rest, Almeida is no exception. I hope his form increases in the next week.

His time trial is much worst then last year, so I'm not expecting a great day on tuesday.

He can still finish top-5, IMO.

Re the ITT. Jens Voigt sort of predicted his ITT would worsen if he only focused on his climbing. It's in the podcast from last summer after Almeida second giro. It was a good pod. (I've probably linked it twice already lol.)

 

[Pistolas]

Poor form like every rider who did the Giro. Still, his best feature (extreme energy and pace regulation) manages to get him in top 10. I'm predicting a bad TT tomorrow. Team should consider attack with him in a breakway in Sierra Nevada stage if Ayuso doesn't crack till there.

 

[noob]

Poor form like every rider who did the Giro. Still, his best feature (extreme energy and pace regulation) manages to get him in top 10. I'm predicting a bad TT tomorrow. Team should consider attack with him in a breakway in Sierra Nevada stage if Ayuso doesn't crack till there.

I also expect a not good ITT. But I doubt he would be allowed in a breakaway too. Or have form for it.

 

[groogster]

Poor form like every rider who did the Giro. Still, his best feature (extreme energy and pace regulation) manages to get him in top 10. I'm predicting a bad TT tomorrow. Team should consider attack with him in a breakway in Sierra Nevada stage if Ayuso doesn't crack till there.

Agree and it was kind of expected that none of the doble Giro/Vuelta GC riders would be in peak form. As today Yates and Almeida are the best of the Giro riders bunch.
I'll also want to give the benefit of the doubt to Almeida to be fair, because he was recovering from covid and unable to do an optimal preparation for LA Vuelta.
Despite also predicting a not so good itt (because of current form and because he's slightly worse at itt since leaving QS) still expect him to have the 3rd/4th best time within the GC contenders (behind Remco/Roglic and maybe Yates). Would be a surprise if Rodriguez or Ayuso could beat him in a 30k flat itt but possible. Enric Mas out of the question, i expect Almeida to put around 1 minute to the spaniard.

As for a possible breakaway in Sierra Nevada, QS, Jumbo, Movistar and Ineos won't allow that to happen, he is still a threat for the GC and if allowed to be in a breakaway group in a stage like the Sierra Nevada he could end up being in the mix for a top3 for the final GC. Remco even not allowed Carapaz to go on a break, he surely won't allow it to Almeida.
What i expect for Sierra Nevada if the GC remains as it is atm, is an Ayuso/Almeida attack at some point of the final climb, with one of them being sacrificed for the benefit of the other.

If he does improve in the 2nd week he probably end up with a Top5 which in these conditions would be a good result for him.

Expect some kind of improvement from him in the next season being probably again UAE team leader for "Il Giro" and working as a domestique for Pogacar in TDF

 

[noob]

Agree and it was kind of expected that none of the doble Giro/Vuelta GC riders would be in peak form. As today Yates and Almeida are the best of the Giro riders bunch.
I'll also want to give the benefit of the doubt to Almeida to be fair, because he was recovering from covid and unable to do an optimal preparation for LA Vuelta.
Despite also predicting a not so good itt (because of current form and because he's slightly worse at itt since leaving QS) still expect him to have the 3rd/4th best time within the GC contenders (behind Remco/Roglic and maybe Yates). Would be a surprise if Rodriguez or Ayuso could beat him in a 30k flat itt but possible. Enric Mas out of the question, i expect Almeida to put around 1 minute to the spaniard.

As for a possible breakaway in Sierra Nevada, QS, Jumbo, Movistar and Ineos won't allow that to happen, he is still a threat for the GC and if allowed to be in a breakaway group in a stage like the Sierra Nevada he could end up being in the mix for a top3 for the final GC. Remco even not allowed Carapaz to go on a break, he surely won't allow it to Almeida.
What i expect for Sierra Nevada if the GC remains as it is atm, is an Ayuso/Almeida attack at some point of the final climb, with one of them being sacrificed for the benefit of the other.

If he does improve in the 2nd week he probably end up with a Top5 which in these conditions would be a good result for him.

Expect some kind of improvement from him in the next season being probably again UAE team leader for "Il Giro" and working as a domestique for Pogacar in TDF

Arensman might pass him in ITT.

 

[groogster]

Arensman might pass him in ITT.

Agree, forget about Arensman, they have similar itt results this season

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Agree, forget about Arensman, they have similar itt results this season

The way both have been TTing this year, i think Arensman will quite handily beat Almeida.

 

[Tonton]

Joao Almeida is a great rider, I cheered for him at Il Giro, and I do the same today. We want him to be so much more than "The New Rui Costa"...which by the way is under appreciating Rui Costa.

Can Joao get a top-5 in a GT? Sure. He has done it before. And I hope that he can do better than just survive.

 

[carolina]

He did an interview yesterday and said his performance is what he expected, although he has surprised himself a couple of times. The preparation was not good because of covid, he won the stage in Burgos, but says the competition was not even close to what we have at the Vuelta.

He also said his relationship with Ayuso is really good, they've been training together for the past 2 and half months and they'll try to support each other and take the race day by day.

 

[noob]

I didn't watch todays stage as I thought it wouldn't end well.

Rodrigues, Mas, Lopez, O Connor, Yates, Tao, Sivakov all had a way better ITT than Almeida.

I think he'll finish below 6 place in GC this vuelta. When even Lopez, O Connor and Mas beats him in an ITT it's way below his usual level.

 

[tobydawq]

I didn't watch todays stage as I thought it wouldn't end well.

Rodrigues, Mas, Lopez, O Connor, Yates, Tao, Sivakov all had a way better ITT than Almeida.

I think he'll finish below 6 place in GC this vuelta. When even Lopez, O Connor and Mas beats him in an ITT it's way below his usual level.

Well, they also all stayed on the course.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

I didn't watch todays stage as I thought it wouldn't end well.

Rodrigues, Mas, Lopez, O Connor, Yates, Tao, Sivakov all had a way better ITT than Almeida.

I think he'll finish below 6 place in GC this vuelta. When even Lopez, O Connor and Mas beats him in an ITT it's way below his usual level.

He lost 20-25 seconds by taking a wrong turn.

 

[noob]

He lost 20-25 seconds by taking a wrong turn.

Dear Lord :O That explains it :O

Has he ever done something like that before? :O

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Dear Lord :O That explains it :O

Has he ever done something like that before? :O

I doubt he has done that before but he was apparently the only rider to do it today. Maybe the Marshall was having a break or something.

Despite that though he would still have shipped nearly two minutes to Remco and maybe would have just scraped into the top ten for the day.

 

[noob]

I doubt he has done that before but he was apparently the only rider to do it today. Maybe the Marshall was having a break or something.

Despite that though he would still have shipped nearly two minutes to Remco and maybe would have just scraped into the top ten for the day.

Thanks. Watching the rerun now. Don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I didn't watch todays stage as I thought it wouldn't end well.

Rodrigues, Mas, Lopez, O Connor, Yates, Tao, Sivakov all had a way better ITT than Almeida.

I think he'll finish below 6 place in GC this vuelta. When even Lopez, O Connor and Mas beats him in an ITT it's way below his usual level.

He's generally a bit overrated as a TT'er though due to his good Giro TT's. He's very good on a TT bike, but not the real top level. Since leaving QS he has also regressed significantly imho. Today he lost time due to a wrong turn but otherwise the TT was not a surprise imho.