Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Butterfly Effect

[CyclistAbi]

It is all about Jonas. For them, Roglic doesn't even exist. This is how confident they are in Pogacar, only peak Jonas can avoid Giro-Tour double.

They indeed both seem to be preoccupied with each other. A day doesn't go by on where Visma doesn't say something in the lines of Jonas won't fade in third week, like Pogi did. Or UAE saying Jonas will be 100% and we look forward to the fights, similar to last year. Same stuff on the forums, social media, bookies ... Rogla likely rather pleased with the whole situation, training hard.

 

[shadowrider]

Well, according to the coach of Visma if Vingegaard starts the Tour, he will not fade during the 3 weeks.

I believe if Visma let him start the Tour, that's because he will be in good shape. If not, he will not go the Tour.

Well, even the coach of Vingegaard is not a sorcerer. The coach of Pogacar was thinking the same two years ago. The rest is history. I'm convinced the team will allow Vingegaard to participate. Not at his top, but close. But anyway declare that Vingegaard will not fade during during the 3 weeks is a kind of arrogant. Mainly intended to mislead the opponents. Hoping to prevent attacks from the early start of the Tour. But I'm sure that Pogacar doesn't believe any of that. He's gonna attack, to start with day one. The second time on the Galibier. By than, we will know who is bluffing.

 

[YavorD]

Well, even the coach of Vingegaard is not a sorcerer. The coach of Pogacar was thinking the same two years ago. The rest is history. I'm convinced the team will allow Vingegaard to participate. Not at his top, but close. But anyway declare that Vingegaard will not fade during during the 3 weeks is a kind of arrogant. Mainly intended to mislead the opponents. Hoping to prevent attacks from the early start of the Tour. But I'm sure that Pogacar doesn't believe any of that. He's gonna attack, to start with day one. The second time on the Galibier. By than, we will know who is bluffing.

That makes sense but in order to do that, they have to confirm him for TdF sooner rather than later. The later they confirm him the more reasons they give the other teams to attack early.
Not that they will wait otherwise but Visma and Vingegaard doesn't gain anything from "he's not sure yet" unless they plan to counter attack on Galibier.

 

[Froome]

Well, even the coach of Vingegaard is not a sorcerer. The coach of Pogacar was thinking the same two years ago. The rest is history. I'm convinced the team will allow Vingegaard to participate. Not at his top, but close. But anyway declare that Vingegaard will not fade during during the 3 weeks is a kind of arrogant. Mainly intended to mislead the opponents. Hoping to prevent attacks from the early start of the Tour. But I'm sure that Pogacar doesn't believe any of that. He's gonna attack, to start with day one. The second time on the Galibier. By than, we will know who is bluffing.

'It’s Possible He Will Try the Giro-Tour Double in the Future’: Will Jonas Vingegaard Take on Same Lofty Goal as Tadej Pogačar?

Vingegaard's coach weighs in on Tour de France 2024 prospects, his mental and physical attributes and more.

velo.outsideonline.com

Better show you the article to see the context of what he said. I don't think he wanted to sound arrogant.

 

[shadowrider]

That makes sense but in order to do that, they have to confirm him for TdF sooner rather than later. The later they confirm him the more reasons they give the other teams to attack early.
Not that they will wait otherwise but Visma and Vingegaard doesn't gain anything from "he's not sure yet" unless they plan to counter attack on Galibier.

The later they confirm him the more reasons they give the other teams to attack early. A good point. But I think they will confirm it in one or two days.

 

[Froome]

That makes sense but in order to do that, they have to confirm him for TdF sooner rather than later. The later they confirm him the more reasons they give the other teams to attack early.
Not that they will wait otherwise but Visma and Vingegaard doesn't gain anything from "he's not sure yet" unless they plan to counter attack on Galibier.

What if they want that? It is also a possibility.

 

[YavorD]

What if they want that? It is also a possibility.

They may want it if they plan to counter attack. How likely is that, everyone can decide for himself. But even you seem to think he'll start undercooked and get better throughout the race.

If they plan to defence early in the race they should claim he's very strong.

 

[Froome]

They may want it if they plan to counter attack. How likely is that, everyone can decide for himself. But even you seem to think he'll start undercooked and get better throughout the race.

If they plan to defence early in the race they should claim he's very strong.

That's my take on what will happen, but in reality only Visma knows how he is at the moment and in what kind of shape he will be in the Tour.

 

[Froome]

If Jonas does participates, then Pogi likely to go in full revenge mode at Galibier, Rogla profiting from it the most. In my opinion Rogla could benefit from a hard first week, so fingers crossed i guess. Although said that i would prefer to see Rogla beating healthy and in form Jonas at Vuelta. So to tackle Pogi at the Tour and Jonas at Vuelta.

I know, you can't have everything.

Well, Roglic can takle on Pogacar and Vingegaard at the same time in the Tour.

 

[CyclistAbi]

That's my take on what will happen, but in reality only Visma knows how he is at the moment and in what kind of shape he will be in the Tour.

If Jonas won't have it in week one, then in my opinion he won't recover from that, going deeper into the race.

 

[Rob5091]

It is interesting that there's not a peep about Roglic from UAE. If Bora can keep Roglic on Pogacar's wheel for the first week then it'll be fun watching.

 

[Froome]

It is interesting that there's not a peep about Roglic from UAE. If Bora can keep Roglic on Pogacar's wheel for the first week then it'll be fun watching.

Emirates knows very well that Pogacar can beat Roglic in normal conditions, that's why they are not worried with him or Remco.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Emirates knows very well that Pogacar can beat Roglic in normal conditions, that's why they are not worried with him ...

You do realise that this is the exact same scenario from the Tour 2020, and we all know on how that ended.

 

[Froome]

You do realise that this is the exact same scenario from the Tour 2020, and we all know on how that ended.

Pogacar was better than Roglic, that's why he won in 2020.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogacar was better than Roglic, that's why he won in 2020.

This wasn't the context of my observation still fair enough.

P.S. Lets just hope that Rogla beating Pogi and Jonas, that people will say the same exact thing and not citing some "un-normal conditions".

 

[Froome]

This wasn't the context of my observation still fair enough.

P.S. Lets just hope that Rogla beating Pogi and Jonas, that people will say the same exact thing and not citing some "un-normal conditions".

My point was that Emirates wasn't so much worried about Roglic, because they know Pogacar can beat him in normal conditions, since they know Pogacar is more strong than him.

The fact Pogacar beat Roglic in 2020, sustains my point.

 

[CyclistAbi]

My point was that Emirates wasn't so much worried about Roglic, because they know Pogacar can beat him in normal conditions, since they know Pogacar is more strong than him.

The fact Pogacar beat Roglic in 2020, sustains my point.

My point on the other hand was, paraphrasing you, JV wasn't so much worried about Pogi, because they knew Rogla can beat him in normal conditions, since they knew Rogla is more strong than him.

And we know on how that ended. Tour 2024 even has a hilly ITT at the end again.

Anyway, enough about this for now. What we know and this likely won't change till the Tour is most people feel Pogi already won Tour 2024. In regards to Jonas, some still feel optimistic, reality being they will force it and to see on how it goes, as other options are off the table, regardless of the form. Remco could be on track, to build some good form for the Tour, still it would be an amazing feet, to turn everything around in three weeks time. Rogla, well, lets wait and see, based on his interviews, hard to tell anything. On the road it does seem like the trajectory is just about right. We'll see.

Now as this is Jonas thread and enough info leaked, that we sort of know what they are planning to do. Good luck and see you at the Tour.

 

[Froome]

My point on the other hand was, paraphrasing you, JV wasn't so much worried about Pogi, because they knew Rogla can beat him in normal conditions, since they knew Rogla is more strong than him.

And we know on how that ended. Tour 2024 even has a hilly ITT at the end again.

Anyway, enough about this for now. What we know and this likely won't change till the Tour is most people feel Pogi already won Tour 2024. In regards to Jonas, some still feel optimistic, reality being they will force it and to see on how it goes, as other options are off the table, regardless of the form. Remco could be on track, to build some good form for the Tour, still it would be an amazing feet, to turn everything around in three weeks time. Rogla, well, lets wait and see, based on his interviews, hard to tell anything. On the road it does seem like the trajectory is just about right. We'll see.

Now as this is Jonas thread and enough info leaked, that we sort of know what they are planning to do. Good luck and see you at the Tour.

Different situations. Pogacar was somebody "new" in 2020.

Now, it's different. They all know each other very well.

 

[YavorD]

That's my take on what will happen, but in reality only Visma knows how he is at the moment and in what kind of shape he will be in the Tour.

You're right but my point stays. Starting the Tour close to 100% is highly unlikely, hence Visma wanting the other teams to attack would be stupid.

My take: The more they delay, the less likely he is competitive or even goes to the Tour. Before Dauphine I was sure he's going and I thought he may be competitive. Now I'm less and less convinced he'll go in a good enough shape to contend.

 

[Extinction]

You're right but my point stays. Starting the Tour close to 100% is highly unlikely, hence Visma wanting the other teams to attack would be stupid.

My take: The more they delay, the less likely he is competitive or even goes to the Tour. Before Dauphine I was sure he's going and I thought he may be competitive. Now I'm less and less convinced he'll go in a good enough shape to contend.

But without the Dauphine we have no parameters to judge. Only the team knows his condition. And why would Visma announce what they will do with him until the last minute? If I were Visma, I'd make it a mystery until the end as they are doing. That way nobody knows what to expect should he show up. If he's super then when they attack him, he responds in kind. If he's less than super, maybe the doubt will make them less likely to go all-in early, thus giving Jonas time to ride into top condition. I'm taking it he only goes if he is able to do one of these scenearios. Point is I don't know how you can draw conclusions about the delay in announcing his presence or not.

 

[YavorD]

But without the Dauphine we have no parameters to judge. Only the team knows his condition. And why would Visma announce what they will do with him until the last minute? If I were Visma, I'd make it a mystery until the end as they are doing. That way nobody knows what to expect should he show up. If he's super then when they attack him, he responds in kind. If he's less than super, maybe the doubt will make them less likely to go all-in early, thus giving Jonas time to ride into top condition. I'm taking it he only goes if he is able to do one of these scenearios. Point is I don't know how you can draw conclusions about the delay in announcing his presence or not.

I've explained my point in earlier comments. I don't think that late announcement will stop UAE and co to attack early. In fact, I think it will gove them confidence and reason to attack thinking that he isn't good enough (yet). If Visma announced him early, however, he'd appear strong(er) thus putting bit of a doubt on the others. You don't put doubt on your opponents if you pretend to be weak.

That's my point and that's what I base my conclusions on. I might be proven wrong of course.

 

[Extinction]

I've explained my point in earlier comments. I don't think that late announcement will stop UAE and co to attack early. In fact, I think it will gove them confidence and reason to attack thinking that he isn't good enough (yet). If Visma announced him early, however, he'd appear strong(er) thus putting bit of a doubt on the others. You don't put doubt on your opponents if you pretend to be weak.

That's my point and that's what I base my conclusions on. I might be proven wrong of course.

Well that's another way of looking at it I guess. For me, if they announce last minute rival teams will still have doubts. Might not change them from attacking him early and hard, but I think you conceal your cards for as long as possible under these circumstances, after a crash like his. Play mind games with them. What's the point of announcing any sooner than necessary, other than to let rivals know he's coming or quell the anxiety of fans? And if he isn't going nothing really changes.

 

[YavorD]

Well that's another way of looking at it I guess. For me, if they announce last minute rival teams will still have doubts. Might not change them from attacking him early and hard, but I think you conceal your cards for as long as possible under these circumstances, after a crash like his. Play mind games with them. What's the point of announcing any sooner than necessary, other than to let rivals know he's coming or quell the anxiety of fans? And if he isn't going nothing really changes.

Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.

 

[Extinction]

Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.

I don't think it makes a difference under present circumstances to be honest. Pog will focus on himself either way, planning to be 100% at the start, whether Jonas is going or not. So in Visma's shoes, I'd opt to disclose the least amount of info possible. No need for rivals to have any certainty on his regard until the last minute. Heck, I'd say he's still in a wheelchair. Anything to not give anyone something to go on prematurely.

Perhaps it's a sign as you posit that his level isn't good enough to send him. Fine. But that doesn't change anything, as a non-start takes him out of the picture. They could bluff in the opposite sense too, by building him up and then not send him. The important thing is to keep it all a mystery and then, if he goes, nobody knows what to expect (perhaps not even Visma, but the mind games work best this way).

 

[zekance]

Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.

I'm not saying that it is but it could also be the case of appear weak when you are strong.