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Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

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Froome

Froome

Jan 29, 2021
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CyclistAbi said:
This wasn't the context of my observation still fair enough.

P.S. Lets just hope that Rogla beating Pogi and Jonas, that people will say the same exact thing and not citing some "un-normal conditions".
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My point was that Emirates wasn't so much worried about Roglic, because they know Pogacar can beat him in normal conditions, since they know Pogacar is more strong than him.

The fact Pogacar beat Roglic in 2020, sustains my point.
 
C

CyclistAbi

May 29, 2019
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Froome said:
My point was that Emirates wasn't so much worried about Roglic, because they know Pogacar can beat him in normal conditions, since they know Pogacar is more strong than him.

The fact Pogacar beat Roglic in 2020, sustains my point.
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My point on the other hand was, paraphrasing you, JV wasn't so much worried about Pogi, because they knew Rogla can beat him in normal conditions, since they knew Rogla is more strong than him.

And we know on how that ended. Tour 2024 even has a hilly ITT at the end again.

Anyway, enough about this for now. What we know and this likely won't change till the Tour is most people feel Pogi already won Tour 2024. In regards to Jonas, some still feel optimistic, reality being they will force it and to see on how it goes, as other options are off the table, regardless of the form. Remco could be on track, to build some good form for the Tour, still it would be an amazing feet, to turn everything around in three weeks time. Rogla, well, lets wait and see, based on his interviews, hard to tell anything. On the road it does seem like the trajectory is just about right. We'll see.

Now as this is Jonas thread and enough info leaked, that we sort of know what they are planning to do. Good luck and see you at the Tour.
 
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Froome

Froome

Jan 29, 2021
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CyclistAbi said:
My point on the other hand was, paraphrasing you, JV wasn't so much worried about Pogi, because they knew Rogla can beat him in normal conditions, since they knew Rogla is more strong than him.

And we know on how that ended. Tour 2024 even has a hilly ITT at the end again.

Anyway, enough about this for now. What we know and this likely won't change till the Tour is most people feel Pogi already won Tour 2024. In regards to Jonas, some still feel optimistic, reality being they will force it and to see on how it goes, as other options are off the table, regardless of the form. Remco could be on track, to build some good form for the Tour, still it would be an amazing feet, to turn everything around in three weeks time. Rogla, well, lets wait and see, based on his interviews, hard to tell anything. On the road it does seem like the trajectory is just about right. We'll see.

Now as this is Jonas thread and enough info leaked, that we sort of know what they are planning to do. Good luck and see you at the Tour.
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Different situations. Pogacar was somebody "new" in 2020.

Now, it's different. They all know each other very well.
 
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YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Froome said:
That's my take on what will happen, but in reality only Visma knows how he is at the moment and in what kind of shape he will be in the Tour.
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You're right but my point stays. Starting the Tour close to 100% is highly unlikely, hence Visma wanting the other teams to attack would be stupid.

My take: The more they delay, the less likely he is competitive or even goes to the Tour. Before Dauphine I was sure he's going and I thought he may be competitive. Now I'm less and less convinced he'll go in a good enough shape to contend.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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YavorD said:
You're right but my point stays. Starting the Tour close to 100% is highly unlikely, hence Visma wanting the other teams to attack would be stupid.

My take: The more they delay, the less likely he is competitive or even goes to the Tour. Before Dauphine I was sure he's going and I thought he may be competitive. Now I'm less and less convinced he'll go in a good enough shape to contend.
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But without the Dauphine we have no parameters to judge. Only the team knows his condition. And why would Visma announce what they will do with him until the last minute? If I were Visma, I'd make it a mystery until the end as they are doing. That way nobody knows what to expect should he show up. If he's super then when they attack him, he responds in kind. If he's less than super, maybe the doubt will make them less likely to go all-in early, thus giving Jonas time to ride into top condition. I'm taking it he only goes if he is able to do one of these scenearios. Point is I don't know how you can draw conclusions about the delay in announcing his presence or not.
 
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YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Extinction said:
But without the Dauphine we have no parameters to judge. Only the team knows his condition. And why would Visma announce what they will do with him until the last minute? If I were Visma, I'd make it a mystery until the end as they are doing. That way nobody knows what to expect should he show up. If he's super then when they attack him, he responds in kind. If he's less than super, maybe the doubt will make them less likely to go all-in early, thus giving Jonas time to ride into top condition. I'm taking it he only goes if he is able to do one of these scenearios. Point is I don't know how you can draw conclusions about the delay in announcing his presence or not.
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I've explained my point in earlier comments. I don't think that late announcement will stop UAE and co to attack early. In fact, I think it will gove them confidence and reason to attack thinking that he isn't good enough (yet). If Visma announced him early, however, he'd appear strong(er) thus putting bit of a doubt on the others. You don't put doubt on your opponents if you pretend to be weak.

That's my point and that's what I base my conclusions on. I might be proven wrong of course.
 
Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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YavorD said:
I've explained my point in earlier comments. I don't think that late announcement will stop UAE and co to attack early. In fact, I think it will gove them confidence and reason to attack thinking that he isn't good enough (yet). If Visma announced him early, however, he'd appear strong(er) thus putting bit of a doubt on the others. You don't put doubt on your opponents if you pretend to be weak.

That's my point and that's what I base my conclusions on. I might be proven wrong of course.
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Well that's another way of looking at it I guess. For me, if they announce last minute rival teams will still have doubts. Might not change them from attacking him early and hard, but I think you conceal your cards for as long as possible under these circumstances, after a crash like his. Play mind games with them. What's the point of announcing any sooner than necessary, other than to let rivals know he's coming or quell the anxiety of fans? And if he isn't going nothing really changes.
 
Y

YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Extinction said:
Well that's another way of looking at it I guess. For me, if they announce last minute rival teams will still have doubts. Might not change them from attacking him early and hard, but I think you conceal your cards for as long as possible under these circumstances, after a crash like his. Play mind games with them. What's the point of announcing any sooner than necessary, other than to let rivals know he's coming or quell the anxiety of fans? And if he isn't going nothing really changes.
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Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.
 
Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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YavorD said:
Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.
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I don't think it makes a difference under present circumstances to be honest. Pog will focus on himself either way, planning to be 100% at the start, whether Jonas is going or not. So in Visma's shoes, I'd opt to disclose the least amount of info possible. No need for rivals to have any certainty on his regard until the last minute. Heck, I'd say he's still in a wheelchair. Anything to not give anyone something to go on prematurely.

Perhaps it's a sign as you posit that his level isn't good enough to send him. Fine. But that doesn't change anything, as a non-start takes him out of the picture. They could bluff in the opposite sense too, by building him up and then not send him. The important thing is to keep it all a mystery and then, if he goes, nobody knows what to expect (perhaps not even Visma, but the mind games work best this way).
 
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zekance

zekance

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YavorD said:
Well if they know Vingegaard is gonna be strong enough mind games make sense. Lure them to attack and reveal your cards early and potentially even counter attack them if you can.

If you're weak, showing weakness doesn't make you position stronger. If you're Pogacar which would give you a boost of confidence and which a bit of doubt?
"Vingegaard is recovering well and will be 100% for the Tour" or
"We go day by day, he is 50/50 to start yet" 2 weeks before the Tour.
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I'm not saying that it is but it could also be the case of appear weak when you are strong.
 
Y

YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Extinction said:
And, I think, this is why you keep 'em guessing by being enigmatic. Saying it's 50/50 he goes is open to more interpretation than he goes or doesn't (in which case at least one thing is for sure).
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I don't think you keep them guessing that way, you invite them to attack early. Which, to be honest, is a good plan if they think/know that Jonas will start hot but may fade towards week 3 (contrary to what they said).
 
Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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YavorD said:
I don't think you keep them guessing that way, you invite them to attack early. Which, to be honest, is a good plan if they think/know that Jonas will start hot but may fade towards week 3 (contrary to what they said).
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Well, given his incident, they were going to attack early and hard anyway. It's not as if he had a smooth go, crushed the Dauphine, and everybody is bracing for thermo-nuclear form. No, they expect him to be vulnerable, were he to show up. So it's best I think to be the least forthcoming with anything regarding him right now.
 
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YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Extinction said:
Well, given his incident, they were going to attack early and hard anyway. It's not as if he had a smooth go, crushed the Dauphine, and everybody is bracing for thermo-nuclear form. No, they expect him to be vulnerable, were he to show up. So it's best I think to be the least forethcoming with anything regarding him right now.
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Well, I guess we'll know more in just over 2 weeks.
 
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S

shadowrider

May 18, 2023
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Froome said:
This week.

Vingegaard, Kuss, Jorgenson, Kelderman, Van aert, Benoot, Laporte, Tratnik.

They will announce this team for the Tour, according to some newspapers.
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Indeed. The decision has already been made a few days ago. The 8 riders mentioned are the participants to the Tour. The only reason VLAB don't communicate is for strategic reasons. But that makes no sense, because all competing teams have known the VLAB team for days. Of course, Kelderman could have crashed hard again during the Tour of Suisse. But he didn't (at least not hard). So, if they want to remain credible, they should "officially" announce the team today or tomorrow.
 
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