Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Butterfly Effect

[Netserk]

Should feel lucky that it was a relativively soft mountain stage. All things considered he should feel pretty happy I think, but worries are how much time he will lose in the time trial because he doesn't really have the team to make it super hard anymore.

I think he will lose 30"-60" in the ITT to Pogi. If that's all he will lose until Pla d'Adet, his winning path is straightforward. But he will need to actually get stronger than Pogi, and that's no guarantee.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Vingegaard is now in the same spot Pogacar was in the last two years; against a stronger team (2022), against a team with a rider that can be a threat for overall (2022), coming back from an injury (2023 but Vinge’s is worse), and against a strong rider. On top of that his team doesn’t look to be good for the mountains bar Jorgenson who just got obliterated. It would be a hard, comeback win if it occurs.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think he will lose 30"-60" in the ITT to Pogi. If that's all he will lose until Pla d'Adet, his winning path is straightforward. But he will need to actually get stronger than Pogi, and that's no guarantee.

But how straightforward is it if you don't have the super team to put the pressure on? Pog can just sit on wheels and sprint.

 

[Gigs_98]

This is almost over already. He's gonna drop another chunk in the ITT and then when the Pyrenees come who on Jumbo is gonna put the slightest dent into UAE? Long range attacks are out of question completely

The significance of Pogacars team to defend in the mountains is super overrated. This isn't chris froome getting babysitted on Alp d'Huez by Wout Poels. If Vingegaard goes, does anyone really think Pogacar will sit back and hope Yates closes the gap for him? Not to say Vingegaards team is no problem at all. It will certainly be much harder to hurt Pogacar before an attack without someone like Kuss around. But if Pogacar isn't strong enough to follow Vingegaard in the pyrenees, his team won't save him.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Vingegaards performance today and Sunday is nothing but amazing. Until a few weeks ago, most people gave him 0% cahnce to be anywhere close to competitive form in this year's TdF. One can just imaging how hard and physically painful it must have been not only to recover from his injuries but also to build his form.

 

[Froome]

They were expecting to be up to 2 minutes behind by now.

And he had no time to think about being scared going downhill.

Who said was expecting that?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

The significance of Pogacars team to defend in the mountains is super overrated. This isn't chris froome getting babysitted on Alp d'Huez by Wout Poels. If Vingegaard goes, does anyone really think Pogacar will sit back and hope Yates closes the gap for him? Not to say Vingegaards team is no problem at all. It will certainly be much harder to hurt Pogacar before an attack without someone like Kuss around. But if Pogacar isn't strong enough to follow Vingegaard in the pyrenees, his team won't save him.

If Visma want to attack, they need a hard day. But if Jorgenson pulls off, there‘s still ten guys and Pogi is nosebreathing. Vingegaard can‘t just drop Pog on explosiveness, so his own team‘s weakness is more of an issue than UAE‘s strength.

 

[RedheadDane]

Who said was expecting that?

He did.
On live television.

 

[Red Rick]

The significance of Pogacars team to defend in the mountains is super overrated. This isn't chris froome getting babysitted on Alp d'Huez by Wout Poels. If Vingegaard goes, does anyone really think Pogacar will sit back and hope Yates closes the gap for him? Not to say Vingegaards team is no problem at all. It will certainly be much harder to hurt Pogacar before an attack without someone like Kuss around. But if Pogacar isn't strong enough to follow Vingegaard in the pyrenees, his team won't save him.

It matters for the only possible location to try and actually take big time.

And it matters if Jorgenson isn't good enough to even tire the UAE guys and Yates can still give a decent 7W/kg pull

 

[James M]

Vingegaard just blew up trying to follow Pogacar like everyone else this year has. He was fast on the wheel if you watch replay he just couldnt sustain it and blew up like weve seen everyone else do too this year not a huge surprise.

 

[Netserk]

But how straightforward is it if you don't have the super team to put the pressure on? Pog can just sit on wheels and sprint.

If he's stronger than Pogi in the last 8 stages (big if), he only needs to land one successful attack on one of the MTFs and then a phenomenal last ITT to take back ~1'30". Very hard, and he will need to reach his best level, but his deficit isn't catastrophic.

Before that though we have an ITT and the gravel.

 

[Oldermanish]

Vingegaard is now in the same spot Pogacar was in the last two years; against a stronger team (2022), against a team with a rider that can be a threat for overall (2022), coming back from an injury (2023 but Vinge’s is worse), and against a strong rider. On top of that his team doesn’t look to be good for the mountains bar Jorgenson who just got obliterated. It would be a hard, comeback win if it occurs.

His team is problem #1. Mateo showed the impact of doing too much work before the hard Galibier stretch, too. Unfortunately for Jonas, Mateo and the race excitement JV doesn't look like things will get better.

 

[Oldermanish]

But how straightforward is it if you don't have the super team to put the pressure on? Pog can just sit on wheels and sprint.

He rode the last descent solo and put time into everyone. Pogi's team messed with the pursuit and look solid. To think Pogacar can be ground down and dropped by JV or any other team is, at this data point: laughable.
Bora lost #3 guy Sobrero before things even got tough leaving only Vlasov who checked out 5km from the summit. Who will put pressure on him?

 

[scribers]

Broe is bullish on Vingo and thinks he’ll win this race

 

[James M]

If he's stronger than Pogi in the last 8 stages (big if), he only needs to land one successful attack on one of the MTFs and then a phenomenal last ITT to take back ~1'30". Very hard, and he will need to reach his best level, but his deficit isn't catastrophic.

Before that though we have an ITT and the gravel.

Pogacar is just stronger I think if the Giro fatigue dont kick in to much its no shot. The way Pogacar blew him up in just 900m he is just to strong for everyone it seems, I have failed to see anyone trying to follow him this year and not blow up totally.. If the giro fatigue kicks in heavy which it can hopefully we have a fight.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is just stronger I think if the Giro fatigue dont kick in to much its no shot. The way Pogacar blew him up in just 900m he is just to strong for everyone it seems, I have failed to see anyone trying to follow him this year and not blow up totally.. If the giro fatigue kicks in heavy which it can hopefully we have a fight.

If Pogacar keeps his form he will win the Tour but it's still realistic that he'll feel the Giro in the last part of the race. However, I'm far from thinking that Vingo will be stronger in the last part of the race given his rushed preparation.

 

[Froome]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808178864952152354

View: https://x.com/itvcycling/status/1808178864952152354

 

[Didinho]

Just rewatched the San Luca attack and Vingo was really sprinting to hold Pogi’s wheel, who was just powering in the saddle. Could just hang on untill the top. But really impressive.
Today was sort of the same effort but after some mountains, a harder pace and altitude. Still impressive with his preparation but you see he misses some base condition. Head held down at the top, all in through the corners but looked really tired at the finish.

 

[Froome]

This is almost over already. He's gonna drop another chunk in the ITT and then when the Pyrenees come who on Jumbo is gonna put the slightest dent into UAE? Long range attacks are out of question completely

Emirates will still have to make the race hard in the Pyrenees because they will want to get more time not just on Vingegaard but on Roglic and Remco. It would be also dangerous to Pogacar, going with a small gap to Remco in the last TT.

The winner will still be the leader with better legs, and one of the top teams will always make the race hard, not just Visma and Emirates, but also quick step, and Bora.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Emirates will still have to make the race hard in the Pyrenees because they will want to get more time not just on Vingegaard but on Roglic and Remco. It would be also dangerous to Pogacar, going with a small gap to Remco in the last TT.

The winner will still be the leader with better legs, and one of the top teams will always make the race hard, not just Visma and Emirates, but also quick step, and Bora.

Evenepoel is an interesting factor, he should be rather close behind Pogacar after the ITT (while I'm expecting other guys to be at least 1'20''-1'30'' back). UAE will definitely attack again (in Massif Central or Pyrenees) to gain on Evenepoel but if Vingo attacks in the Pyrenees and can't drop Pogacar, he can actually help Pogacar distance Evenepoel.

 

[Extinction]

View: https://youtu.be/XuhV1VyEP4c?si=AW2yB7l6uihwFb9T

 

[Krzysztof_O]

View: https://youtu.be/XuhV1VyEP4c?si=AW2yB7l6uihwFb9T

Too bad Vingo didn't say that the race wouldn't be decided by seconds! It would be epic.

 

[Extinction]

Too bad Vingo didn't say that the race wouldn't be decided by seconds! It would be epic.

I thought the same thing. He's on the back foot, but let's see if his time is coming.

 

[Salvarani]

Evenepoel is an interesting factor, he should be rather close behind Pogacar after the ITT (while I'm expecting other guys to be at least 1'20''-1'30'' back). UAE will definitely attack again (in Massif Central or Pyrenees) to gain on Evenepoel but if Vingo attacks in the Pyrenees and can't drop Pogacar, he can actually help Pogacar distance Evenepoel.

In that scenario Vinge might help and vice versa, if Vinge wants to beat Remco and get on the podium/finish 2nd.

The enemy of my enemy becomes my friend.

 

[Medvind]

The second part of the decent really cost him. Sure he is much lighter which is a disadvantage on that part, but he also seemed to lack some power; probably paid a bit for trying to following Pog's insane attack.

I hope he will get better and better so that we have a battle in the 3rd week

My big worry however is Vinge's team. Not sure it will be strong enough to tire Pog out and help Vinge set up attacks later in the tour.