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Are Itzulia hills long enough for Vingo to make a difference to R&R?
Also, there aren't mountain top finishes.
Likely ITT will dictate who will attack first.
Also, there aren't mountain top finishes.
Likely ITT will dictate who will attack first.
I'll be surprised if he wins it, and a little sad. If they can't compete where R&R should be better, then there is little hope for the TdF.
I think Vingegaard will wins. His most impressive wins this years has been on fake climbs.
The Itzulia route is made for Remco. But Vingegaard is levels over Remco even on a Remco route.
I think we have seen the last to Roglic. I see Ayuso as bigger favorite for 3rd.
And that's why the Giro-Tour double has not been achieved since 98. Winning the Giro is a stress on body and mind, but winning the Tour afterward even moreso. Whereas winning the Tour makes the Vuelta less stressful.
It would be very strange if Roglic simply declined in the space of a few months. Without any injury a la Froome or Bernal it would be hard to explain the suddenness of a rider that won Il Giro and was 3rd in La Vuelta (whilst being capable of being 2nd or winning it for the 4th time) in 2023 simply fading into the background.
The most plausible explanation for PN is/was: 1) gradual build towards the Tour and 2) shifting environment of Bora.
I don't think leaving JV LAB and AI should factor as the main explanation for Roglic or any rider decline. That should attract major alarms...teams cannot be that different.
Jorgensen did't need that time. But let me correct myself, I think we have seen the last to Roglic on a level where he can win against Pogacar, Vingegaard, Remco and maybe even Ayuso.
To the bolded, that's the interesting point. For if Vingo can dominate Remco in his terrain, then the Tour becomes a pipe dream. On the other hand, were Remco able to go punch for punch in Itzulia, then the kid can hope.
From your lips to God's ears. Lets see what Jonas has been smoking, should be a good match.
No but if he wins Itzulia we'll be in top 4 at UCI. Philipsen and Pogacar is a bit far.
The debrief: Analysing that Tour time trial - Escape Collective
Making sense of "the best time trial performance ever," and how the competition close the gap by the 2024 Tour.
escapecollective.com
Very interesting article explaining in detail the perfomance of Vingegaard by his coach Heijboer.
Some interesting takes:
“Does Jonas have any drop off in power from road bike to TT bike?” I asked Heijboer.
“No, no, no no, no,” came the emphatic answer, “and especially not on the base bar.”
Vinegaard’s exceptional ability to maintain his aero position was also evident during the entire time trial. It’s one thing to be aero, and another to produce power, but combining the two is the secret to successful time trialling."
What is also special? Vingegaard gave away more information than most in his post-stage 16 press conference. The Dane revealed he was planning to ride at 360 watts on the flats but was actually maintaining 380. Heijboer explained the team typically uses RPE (Rate of Perceived Exertion) in pacing time trials, a pacing strategy Vingegaard was able to fine-tune, having got it wrong in the time trial at the Dauphine last month. “We use the power meter as a reference, but most important is the feeling,” Heijboer explains.
Using those numbers, we can make educated guesses at Vingegaard’s CdA. Some of the calculations we are seeing and hearing at Escape Collective suggest that figure is as low or perhaps even lower than .17. We put this number to Heijboer, who, understandably and frustratingly, couldn’t give away Jonas’s measured CdA but did say, “that is close,” as if to suggest the actual number might be even lower. To be clear, .17 is absolutely exceptional.
Heijboer then tells a story from aero testing Jonas’s time trial position during covid times, the aerodynamicists back at home were convinced there was something wrong with the test or equipment, so low was his CdA. These are only estimates, but for comparison, Dan Bigham’s CdA for his successful Hour Record attempt last year was possibly as low as .155. Remco Evenpoel’s CdA is perhaps similar to Vingegaard’s, while Ganna’s Hour Record CdA is estimated at .185 (a rider’s CdA is typically lower on the track due to the clutter-free track bikes, but Ganna is also 18 cm taller and roughly 20 kg or more heavier than Vingegaard). Finally, Van Aert – a similarly sized rider to Ganna – has an estimated CdA of perhaps around .2. For what it’s worth, some calculations suggest every .01 increase in Jonas’s CdA could have cost him as much as 24 seconds. For comparison, each extra watt would save 2.9 seconds. Hence the importance of maintaining the optimal time trial position.
Did Grischa forget the password? Did he not „study every corner“? Clearly washed
Does anyone know if Vingegaard had any technical issues?
Otherwise 15 seconds to Roglic (who took a wrong turn) and 4 seconds to Evenepoel (who crashed), seems like quite a lot on a 10K TT.
Otherwise 15 seconds to Roglic (who took a wrong turn) and 4 seconds to Evenepoel (who crashed), seems like quite a lot on a 10K TT.
There's no issues, he will be really good in the TT in the right time, at his peak shape.
Nevertheless, he did a good TT considering this time of the season, and the clearly bad TT setup Visma have at the moment. They will certainly improve the setup in the next months.
Noticed that too! Little weird they didn’t improve their set up over the winter. Besides 3rd week Vingegaard it’s a long time since I seen a really good TT by any jumbo/visma riders.
IMO that's his TT level outside of third week grand tours. It was similar in Tirreno to Ayuso, and then he destroyed the climbs.
The bad setup TT in comparation with other teams is quite obvious, looking at Visma riders results, and not just from today.
He will be fine when it matters most.
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