Stake Laengen and Bennett would have been dropped anyway the way Jumbo were riding that stage though. I don't disagree that Vingegaard had luck on his side, but nothing indicates he wasn't the strongest rider in the race either. That doesn't mean he'll always be the strongest rider, just like Pogačar himself hasn't been.Paris-Nice was 1 vs 1 which cannot be compared to Galibier/Granon because at that point UAE was racing without 2 important domestiques in Vegard Stake Laengen and George Bennett due to positive covid-19 tests. Let's not forget that it was for the most part basically almost the whole of Jumbo vs Pogacar and later down that stage Roglic and Vingegaard 1-2 attacking Pogacar.
Sure thats bike racing but lets not pretend Vingegaard won without many things going his way and without many things going against UAE.
This tour UAE looks stronger than last year and Roglic isn't participating in this years edition, as I said barring any covid or crashes, I dont see Vingegaard outriding Pogacar in this tour.
This year's route should favour Pogačar more than last year's, but with his form being uncertain and Vingegaard delivering the goods and the watts, it's not as clear cut as you make it sound like.