Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[tobydawq]

I did. His results in mountain stages didn't change between the first week and the 3rd week. Even with Vingegaard on 20 minute climbs. Worse on 30 minute + climbs.

Data doesn't support the assertion that he was performing worse at all. Gets 3rd in final ITT, which was much better than in 2021. Couldn't drop Vingegaard in the Pyrenees in 2021 either.

I don't question the input variable. I question how you find causation when there's not even correlation.

I think he was better on Planche des Belles Filles than Granon without having scrutinised data.

 

[Red Rick]

I think he was better on Planche des Belles Filles than Granon without having scrutinised data.

I never disputed the Granon collapse being a result of wasting energy and bad tactics. It makes sense because it's that same day with no days of recovery after.

Anything else however.

 

[Netserk]

I think he was better on Planche des Belles Filles than Granon without having scrutinised data.

But was he worse on Peyragudes than Super Planche des Belles Filles? Didn't look like it.

Compared to Thomas and Gaudu, he was an alien on the Hautacam stage.

 

[Cookster15]

So what are betting markets saying? Just checked two Australian sites and they both have Pog at shorter odds to win the Tour than Vingegaard despite Vingegaard being the defending champion. Interesting.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah I think I'm with the ones arguing Vingegaard was just stronger. People arguing Pogacar would have won if only he had made this and that little change sound an awful lot like the ones arguing that next year Contador will finally beat Froome at the Tour.

And before I get a hundred responses of "actually Contador would have beaten Froome if only this and that had happened", yeah, maybe. But at the end of the day, when the question becomes "Who will dominate the Tour, the exciting rider or the robotic one with the dominant team?" I'm always backing the robotic one and in this case that's clearly Vingegaard.

Sure, the sample size of great Vingegaard performances at grand tours is so small that 2022 might really just be an outlier but my gut feeling is it wasn't. Everyone is always so at awe at what Pogacar is capable of doing that our brains trick us into thinking he is the man to beat no matter what. But frankly GT's are won on TT's and long climbs and Vingegaard has Pogacar's number in the former and seems to be outright better in the latter. Pogacar has an advantage on a different kind of stage but those are the stages where now everyone criticizes him for wasting energy to gain seconds. So what do you want him to do? Just use his skillset to gain two minutes on a hilly stage? Good luck with that.

 

[theyoungest]

Pogacar and Vingegaard has the exact same number of race days thus far this year... and today Vingegaard will go 1 day up.

Yes, about three other posters have said this already. Do you guys read each others posts? Anyway, as I already said: Pais Vasco vs. MSR, E3, Flanders, Amstel, Fleche, and Liege isn't exactly an equally hard program, even though the number of race days may be the same.

 

[tobydawq]

Yeah I think I'm with the ones arguing Vingegaard was just stronger. People arguing Pogacar would have won if only he had made this and that little change sound an awful lot like the ones arguing that next year Contador will finally beat Froome at the Tour.

And before I get a hundred responses of "actually Contador would have beaten Froome if only this and that had happened", yeah, maybe. But at the end of the day, when the question becomes "Who will dominate the Tour, the exciting rider or the robotic one with the dominant team?" I'm always backing the robotic one and in this case that's clearly Vingegaard.

Sure, the sample size of great Vingegaard performances at grand tours is so small that 2022 might really just be an outlier but my gut feeling is it wasn't. Everyone is always so at awe at what Pogacar is capable of doing that our brains trick us into thinking he is the man to beat no matter what. But frankly GT's are won on TT's and long climbs and Vingegaard has Pogacar's number in the former and seems to be outright better in the latter. Pogacar has an advantage on a different kind of stage but those are the stages where now everyone criticizes him for wasting energy to gain seconds. So what do you want him to do? Just use his skillset to gain two minutes on a hilly stage? Good luck with that.

For the record, I also think Vingegaard was stronger than Pogacar. And I don't believe in the "he burnt too many matches" theory. But I do oppose Red Rick's postulate that you can only use that argument if you're just set in stone in believing that Pogacar cannot be beaten.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yeah I think I'm with the ones arguing Vingegaard was just stronger. People arguing Pogacar would have won if only he had made this and that little change sound an awful lot like the ones arguing that next year Contador will finally beat Froome at the Tour.

And before I get a hundred responses of "actually Contador would have beaten Froome if only this and that had happened", yeah, maybe. But at the end of the day, when the question becomes "Who will dominate the Tour, the exciting rider or the robotic one with the dominant team?" I'm always backing the robotic one and in this case that's clearly Vingegaard.

Sure, the sample size of great Vingegaard performances at grand tours is so small that 2022 might really just be an outlier but my gut feeling is it wasn't. Everyone is always so at awe at what Pogacar is capable of doing that our brains trick us into thinking he is the man to beat no matter what. But frankly GT's are won on TT's and long climbs and Vingegaard has Pogacar's number in the former and seems to be outright better in the latter. Pogacar has an advantage on a different kind of stage but those are the stages where now everyone criticizes him for wasting energy to gain seconds. So what do you want him to do? Just use his skillset to gain two minutes on a hilly stage? Good luck with that.

I also agree Vingeaard was stronger however in this year, Pogacar will be less cocky and the route benefits him so it is 50/50 to me. And one thing is very important to say, the weather will play a huge role. Last year, we had a very hot Tour. If we have a rainy day in the mountains, Pogi will probably crush Vingegaard just like in 2021

 

[theyoungest]

I also agree Vingeaard was stronger however in this year, Pogacar will be less cocky and the route benefits him so it is 50/50 to me. And one thing is very important to say, the weather will play a huge role. Last year, we had a very hot Tour. If we have a rainy day in the mountains, Pogi will probably crush Vingegaard just like in 2021

Different circumstances, Vingegaard crashed on that stage and wasn't even their GC leader yet. I think he'll at least try to follow Pogi if something like that happens again. Whether he will be able to, who knows. You could argue the same about another super hot day and Vingo dropping Pogi, of course. Col de la Loze in the hot sun, I know who I'll be betting on.

 

[Gigs_98]

Different circumstances, Vingegaard crashed on that stage and wasn't even their GC leader yet. I think he'll at least try to follow Pogi if something like that happens again. Whether he will be able to, who knows. You could argue the same about another super hot day and Vingo dropping Pogi, of course. Col de la Loze in the hot sun, I know who I'll be betting on.

True, but that Pogacar performance was so otherworldly that I simply cannot believe Vingegaard could have followed.

 

[Red Rick]

True, but that Pogacar performance was so otherworldly that I simply cannot believe Vingegaard could have followed.

Terrible weather, so I back Pogacar on that one.

Having said that, I only notice now that Theuns literally climbed Colombiere faster than the GC guys, so they must have snorted some great vintage G2 dynamics that day.

 

[Netserk]

True, but that Pogacar performance was so otherworldly that I simply cannot believe Vingegaard could have followed.

Was it more otherworldly than Hautacam?

 

[tobydawq]

Okay, the way youre writing youre definitely a sockpuppet of broccolidwarf as some Danes suspected earlier. The over-punctuation is exactly the same.

@Red Rick?

I don't think it's illegal, he deleted the other account a long time ago.

 

[Gigs_98]

Was it more otherworldly than Hautacam?

I don't know, but what's your point? Vingegaard had no performance in 2021 resembling that of Hautacam 2022, so it's not a good reference point to discuss, whether Vingegaard could have followed Pogacar had he not crashed. Right?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Being popular doesn't necessarily mean likeable.
And if you present yourself as a nice guy, despite being a jerk, people are gonna think you're a nice guy.
Exactly, Pogi demolished everyone in the race.

Quotes seem to have been combined somehow but regarding the first two, I think we’re disagreeing over semantics. The initial quote was about masses of people liking Lance but not necessarily liking Vingegaard. Popular, likable, whatever you want to call it.

You can always say something like that about anyone who won any race.

Yeah that was my point, although as I was typing it I started to wonder…

No, i don't agree. We 've seen him struggle on long climbs in 2020 and 2021 as well. It is very possible that he would still have lost time to Vingegaard, just a lot less than he did now. You can't pretend him getting past on Granon by Yates, Thomas and your grandma is where he would have ended up regardless.

Yeah, it seems fairly self-evident that he screwed this stage up. Likely due to a combination over exertion on previous stages and during the stage. Almost certainly would have lost time, almost certainly should have been ahead of everyone but Vingegaard at the end.

For the record, I also think Vingegaard was stronger than Pogacar. And I don't believe in the "he burnt too many matches" theory. But I do oppose Red Rick's postulate that you can only use that argument if you're just set in stone in believing that Pogacar cannot be beaten.

Yeah I agree with this. I think he burnt too many matches and made some key tactical mistakes that cost him but also was weaker in that Tour than Vingegaard.

 

[Red Rick]

By what method do we judge Romme/Colombiere

 

[Andy schleck]

Another great victory! Good entertainment.

 

[Netserk]

I don't know, but what's your point? Vingegaard had no performance in 2021 resembling that of Hautacam 2022, so it's not a good reference point to discuss, whether Vingegaard could have followed Pogacar had he not crashed. Right?

The discussion was not about 2021. It was about circumstances in this year’s Tour.

Last year, we had a very hot Tour. If we have a rainy day in the mountains, Pogi will probably crush Vingegaard just like in 2021

 

[Netserk]

After three 2nd places and a 3rd, he finally wins one of the greatest one-week stage races. Should be the favourite to win Dauphiné as well.

 

[Boehmand]

Okay, the way youre writing youre definitely a sockpuppet of broccolidwarf as some Danes suspected earlier. The over-punctuation is exactly the same.

@Red Rick?

Weird I am the subject of conspiracy theories

 

[Andy schleck]

@Big Doopie this is how you not barely beat Mas.

 

[BigCoward]

Man, I really hope we get to see them this year. Another 2014, after this spring would be terrible.

 

[Extinction]

An emphatic demonstration of superiority today. I'm starting to think he's the man to beat at the Tour. Well, let's say, he should have another super peak in July, which will be tough to defeat especially if Jumbo is firing on all cylinders.

 

[Netserk]

Weird I am the subject of conspiracy theories

Deal with it

 

[Peyroteo94]

An emphatic demonstration of superiority today. I'm starting to think he's the man to beat at the Tour. Well, let's say, he should have another super peak in July, which will be tough to defeat especially if Jumbo is firing on all cylinders.

What I am notice is Vingegaard and Pogacar are so much better than others, so If one of them don't show up, the GC is just a mere formality.