Jonathan Tiernan-Locke written to by UCI, asked to explain blood values

[DirtyWorks]

He's not racing so he can't really 'do any more damage', even if he is a doper. I understand such extensions are easily enough gained if you can find any prima facie evidence that you might have an explanation; JTL's people seem to have some sort of 'virus' hypothesis, so no harm really giving them time to sink or swim...

one can be TOO cycnical, you know..

You are missing the point. How many athletes have we seen swiftly removed from the elite peloton then more or less blacklisted? Versus how Contador and now JTL's case is being handled. We don't even know how many riders have been asked for explanations. That's the source of cynical treatment of an extension.

Also, the federation has the authority to open a case. The experts from the APMU recommend. They do not, cannot, direct the sports federation to open a case. Which is why WADA still needs the authority to open a case. As an FYI, the APMU is run by Saugy, long, long, long, longtime friend of Hein and Pat.

To be fair to the athlete, the process bends over backwards to prevent false positives including the option of asking for an explanation prior to a full-blown sanction. That would be terrible if a false positive occurred. Unfortunately, this creates a magnificent opportunity for the clever athlete.

 

[hrotha]

The system is heavily skewed to avoid false positives, which in itself is a good thing, but it's likely that they took it too far, from "reasonable and error-proof standards, even if many who are guilty regrettably slip away" to "absolute minimum needed to still be able to convince people it works". Reminds me of the absurd EPO thresholds needed for the first tests (remember the whole "Armstrong's samples were dubious and technically not positive at the time they were tested, but totes positive a few years later" malarkey?).

At the very least they should let the software flag more profiles for the experts to analyze.

 

[thehog]

The system is heavily skewed to avoid false positives, which in itself is a good thing, but it's likely that they took it too far, from "reasonable and error-proof standards, even if many who are guilty regrettably slip away" to "absolute minimum needed to still be able to convince people it works". Reminds me of the absurd EPO thresholds needed for the first tests (remember the whole "Armstrong's samples were dubious and technically not positive at the time they were tested, but totes positive a few years later" malarkey?).

At the very least they should let the software flag more profiles for the experts to analyze.

They catch the big fish as well

The system is wonderful for data analytics and not much else.

2008 there was a dip when it was introduce now it encourages doping.

JTL will go the way of Barado. His case will forever be intertwined in letters and suspended animation between not riding and suspension.

 

[MartinGT]

Suprise Suprise.

Special treatment for Team GB Now Cookson is in charge.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Wow, just wow. That didn't take long

 

[Von Mises]

The system is wonderful for data analytics and not much else.

Between 2008-2010 there were 26 riders from Biopassport program who where caught for EPO or Cera. Six of them were caught randomly, but 20 were specifically targeted because of information in their ABP.

 

[martinvickers]

You are missing the point. How many athletes have we seen swiftly removed from the elite peloton then more or less blacklisted? Versus how Contador and now JTL's case is being handled. We don't even know how many riders have been asked for explanations. That's the source of cynical treatment of an extension.

a. missing it and disagreeing with it are two different things.
b. It's not a source, it's an interpretation
c. about 40 have been asked for explanations i believe.

Also, the federation has the authority to open a case. The experts from the APMU recommend. They do not, cannot, direct the sports federation to open a case. Which is why WADA still needs the authority to open a case. As an FYI, the APMU is run by Saugy, long, long, long, longtime friend of Hein and Pat.

Hein and Pat are gone, DW. You're going to have to get your head round that if you like it or not. You need a new fiddle to play.

To be fair to the athlete, the process bends over backwards to prevent false positives including the option of asking for an explanation prior to a full-blown sanction. That would be terrible if a false positive occurred. Unfortunately, this creates a magnificent opportunity for the clever athlete.

Justice is slow and careful. It has to be, or it ain't justice. If you want instant judgements, watch America's got Talent.

 

[sniper]

Wow, just wow. That didn't take long

and the sky watch dog didn't take long either.

 

[Ferminal]

Between 2008-2010 there were 26 riders from Biopassport program who where caught for EPO or Cera. Six of them were caught randomly, but 20 were specifically targeted because of information in their ABP.

Is there an explanation of that process?

Zorzoli and Rossi 2012?

Ok so it's profiles which trigger the software but are still not dodgy enough for a sanction. Is this where that 40 comes from?

 

[sniper]

Hein and Pat are gone, DW. You're going to have to get your head round that if you like it or not. You need a new fiddle to play.

and i imagine it has herewith also become irrelevant to ask if wiggins 2012 and froome 2013 were clean.

hein and pat and the way they ran uci will remain relevant for years to come.

 

[martinvickers]

and i imagine it has herewith also become irrelevant to ask if wiggins 2012 and froome 2013 were clean.

hein and pat and the way they ran uci will remain relevant for years to come.

complete non sequitur. pointless.

 

[Von Mises]

Is there an explanation of that process?

Zorzoli and Rossi 2012?

Ok so it's profiles which trigger the software but are still not dodgy enough for a sanction. Is this where that 40 comes from?

Yes, it is from Zorzoli and Rossi, ("Case studies on ESA-doping as revealed by the Biological Passport")
- they are talking only about CERA and EPO cases and athletes who were included in ABP. So, for instance Mosquera or Contador are not included in this statistics (what does not mean that they were not targeted based on ABP).
- though all cases are anonymous, you can guess who is who. For instance in 2010 only Sentjens was random, all others (including Frei) were targeted.
- They also discuss few cases in more detail. Fo instance one case (I suspect that it is Ricco), started from Hb, second stage was before competition targeting where from they got weird looking Ret% and after that they designed specific in competion targeting.
- Zorzoli/Rossi briefly touch question of micro-dosing: "In fact, many athletes will try to beat thepassport by using low-dose doping or other sophisticated doping
regimes that will enhance their performance, but not necessarily
impact their blood values enough to make them go beyond their
individual limits calculated by the passport (and thereby escape
the attention of the testing authority).[15] However, mild changes
in their biomarkers might be expected even in these cases. The
approach to such cases must be to identify atypical patterns in
the blood values of the athletes in question, such as seasonal
abnormalities (atypical differences in blood values between summer
and winter), differences between in- and out-of-competition
tests or changes of blood values over the competitive season in
relation to the competition schedule of the athlete. By these
means, targeting with conventional tests can be more efficient."

 

[DirtyWorks]

Ok so it's profiles which trigger the software but are still not dodgy enough for a sanction. Is this where that 40 comes from?

The profile crosses some statistical positive threshold and most importantly the APMU administrator has taken the step to assign an expert. What makes JTL's case unusual is we know there have been cases where there have been positive scores in the APMU and no expert assigned. JTL's case got an expert and the expert thinks there is sufficient evidence for a sanction.

Regarding the number 40, recently Russia's Track and Field sanctioned their 35th elite athlete for 2013. 40 would be huge, but quite likely given cycling's historically weak (to put it kindly) anti-doping enforcement.

 

[DirtyWorks]

The reference for the number 40 athletes getting letters from the APMU comes from this post: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1356843&postcount=385

Again, given the UCI's historically soft, almost random anti-doping enforcement that number is likely an indicator of legitimate positives. How many though? 10? 20? 2? <shrug> One thing is for sure, the next time "Cleanest peloton ever" is used, it should inspire doubts.

Justice is slow and careful. It has to be, or it ain't justice. If you want instant judgements, watch America's got Talent.

There is a process that goes to great lengths to protect against a false positive. It is not a judicial process. No jury. Not even a judge.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Suprise Suprise.

Special treatment for Team GB Now Cookson is in charge.

To be perfectly clear for the casual reader, WADA's own documentation specifies the expert assigned to analyze JTL's documentation has the option of asking for an explanation. Based on the returned explanation, the expert still can choose to either recommend or not recommend a case be opened by the federation.

I agree with Race Radio's opinion, this one will enter some kind of twilight where JTL doesn't race, yet doesn't get sanctioned like a Barredo.

 

[Benotti69]

To be perfectly clear for the casual reader, WADA's own documentation specifies the expert assigned to analyze JTL's documentation has the option of asking for an explanation. Based on the returned explanation, the expert still can choose to either recommend or not recommend a case be opened by the federation.

I agree with Race Radio's opinion, this one will enter some kind of twilight where JTL doesn't race, yet doesn't get sanctioned like a Barredo.

Yes, and it will be ignored by cycling's journalists.

 

[coinneach]

I have not heard of anything that would lead credence to that theory, but if is the case it would be very significant. For now a quote by Napoleon comes to mind

"Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."

I may be a bit late, and I am a resident RR fan, but that quote strikes me as really worth repeating.

Not just in relation to doping and cycling, but all manner of domestic & international conflicts.

Trouble is, when you are feeling a bit sore, you really want to believe its malice that's caused it, cause that can lead to revenge.....incompetence doesn't excite the juices nearly so much.

Relating to cycling, I would wish Wiggins could see that Froomes infamous attack was a result of incompetence (or eager inexperience) rather than malice: he's a bitter complex loner without that insight.
For all the Brits moan about the Spaniards, on the surface, Rodriguez seems to be cutting Valverde the benefit of the doubt.

 

[thehog]

Between 2008-2010 there were 26 riders from Biopassport program who where caught for EPO or Cera. Six of them were caught randomly, but 20 were specifically targeted because of information in their ABP.

Which is data analytics.

My next question is, "which" riders are selectively targeted?

 

[martinvickers]

The reference for the number 40 athletes getting letters from the APMU comes from this post: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1356843&postcount=385

Again, given the UCI's historically soft, almost random anti-doping enforcement that number is likely an indicator of legitimate positives. How many though? 10? 20? 2? <shrug> One thing is for sure, the next time "Cleanest peloton ever" is used, it should inspire doubts.



There is a process that goes to great lengths to protect against a false positive. It is not a judicial process. No jury. Not even a judge.

If it's a sports governing body interfering with a rider's ability to make a living and banning him from the sport, and it involves an EU citizen on an EU team, it'll be subject to Article 6 ECHR - it'll be a quasi judicial process.

A judicial process needs neither juries (most cases don't have 'em) or judges (huge numbers go before chairs, boards, commissions and appeal boards with ne'er a 'judge' in sight') to be a judicial process. Don't mix up judicial processes with criminal cases.

 

[Von Mises]

Which is data analytics.

My next question is, "which" riders are selectively targeted?

I do not know what do you mean exactly, but decision to target is made by APMU expert and in this case one expert is enough, they do not need 3 expert consensus. Process is anonymous, so expert does not know the name of the rider, he just sees code and makes targeting decision. Then expert enters this information into ADAMS, sometimes it is very detailed - dates, times, etc - sometimes it is less detailed.

 

[WillemS]

Which is data analytics.

My next question is, "which" riders are selectively targeted?

For one, Thomas Dekker was selectively targeted. His suspicious 2008 ABP values led to retroactive tests of 2007 blood samples, revealing EPO use.

 

[zigmeister]

I really don't comprehend the passport request. Sir, please explain these values!

Ummm...I'm not a scientist, what am I supposed to explain UCI???

You are assumed guilty, so please come explain why you are not!

This is why the passport is a joke and completely unreliable. It doesn't
actually prove anything. So you get the rider to show up and convict himself?

 

[thehog]

For one, Thomas Dekker was selectively targeted. His suspicious 2008 ABP values led to retroactive tests of 2007 blood samples, revealing EPO use.

Which lead to "selective" retroactive testing of his 2007 sample, yes.

Anytime the UCI wants to retroactively test the 2008 Giro for CERA they'll wipe out 50% of the peloton.

 

[hrotha]

You get a rider to show up and document an illness or something along those lines that explains those values. Easy.

 

[thehog]

You get a rider to show up and document an illness or something along those lines that explains those values. Easy.

ahh,ahh, agghhh, badzhilla its got me, ahhhhghh.....