Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[Riek s]

Ayuso is doing fantastic. Seems to recover great and riding very good on the climbs.
Question is indeed what will his progression be. But he still has multiple years to contend for a GT, so he can still ride without pressure and discover on what he will need to work/improve.

I think he has very similar strengths as Pogacar, so he can probably learn a lot from him on what he does and takes. So being on the same team should help in that.

 

[ontheroad]

I think he has surpassed expectations in this Vuelta so far, he has been up there with the top GC riders in every mountain stage. Rode a decent time trial as well. He is a serious prospect.

For me he has done enough to warrant riding the Tour next season as super dom/back up leader.

It depends though how keen UAE are to wrestle back the yellow jersey whether they take Almeida and/or Ayuso. I suspect they might only take one of them. I’d predict Almeida will ride Giro & Tour with Ayuso going for Vuelta.

 

[KZD]

Great ride today, excedeed my expectations.

I wouldn't be surprise if he is a protected rider in the Tour next year behind Pogacar.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Id try to win 1 week stage races with Ayuso next year (he seems to have a great profile for those, hes punchy, can climb and can time trial) and then once again go for the Vuelta as the sole GT, now with the intention of winning the whole thing. Basically ride the races Pogacar doesnt, peak in march-april, and then build towards la Vuelta once again.

What I don't understand however is why you'd extend your contract through 2028 with Pogacar on the team, but oh well

 

[groogster]

Id try to win 1 week stage races with Ayuso next year (he seems to have a great profile for those, hes punchy, can climb and can time trial) and then once again go for the Vuelta as the sole GT, now with the intention of winning the whole thing. Basically ride the races Pogacar doesnt, peak in march-april, and then build towards la Vuelta once again.

What I don't understand however is why you'd extend your contract through 2028 with Pogacar on the team, but oh well

Very much what I think regarding Ayuso calendar for 2023. He will only be 20 next year, to much to ask making him doing 2 GT in one season. Put him at La Vuelta as leader (the spaniards will go mad if he doesn't ride next year Vuelta)
Put Almeida doing the Giro as a leader and then put Almeida to work for Pogacar in TDF (it will have a serious impact on Pogacar´s chances of getting back the crown, just because Almeida gives the security that will be around Pogacar when needed).

As far as extending his contract, he's younger then Poga and UAE seems to have a purpose of seriously having a shot in the near future to try and win all the 3 GT. So now they have Pogacar (2027) which is, if not the best, one of the Top3 GC riders, they have Ayuso (2028) who can also become one of the Top3 GC riders and Almeida (2026) who is one of the top 10 best GC riders so it makes sense to put all of them in long contracts, with the youngest having the longest attachment to UAE.

They just lack in domestiques to feed all of them so we'll see how it ends

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ahh, jumping on conclusions now! Saying Ayuso will be better than Pogacar is kind of over the top. Does Ayuso have a greater threshold than Almeida? it seems that way just by looking at this Vuelta, but in perspective we have to understand that Almeida came here with 1GT in his legs and covid.
Will he be better than Pogacar? There’s no way we can know that at this point. Let’s see how his development goes from now on before jumping into conclusions. When he manages to win 2 TDF by the age of 22/23 then we can talk about it.

Hence "If he can improve like a regular 20 year old".

If.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Obviously he‘ll go all the way to Madrid. He‘s 20 yrs old now, can become 4th in GC, and is riding the second half of the Vuelta being Covid positive. First GT for him.

I think he will ride the TdF for the first time in 2023, and win the TdF in 2024, then.

3rd in TdF GC in 2023, and 1st in TdF GC in 2024.

Ayuso, Evenepoel, Carlos Rodriguez and Vine were the surprises of this Vuelta, that‘s clear IMHO…

 

[groogster]

Hence "If he can improve like a regular 20 year old".

If.

I saw that, so "if" he improves as a regular 20 year old Pogacar will be left with the scraps of Ayuso implies one of 2 things:

a) Ayuso is a better rider than Pogacar was at his age (19) which doesn't seem quite right. In 2019 just before turning 21 Pogacar did his first GT at La Vuelta ending in the Top3 and winning 3 stages while at it. Ayuso is doing extremely well, way above what we could expect for his first GT but not being better then Pogacar was at 2019 Vuelta, in fact until this stage a little worse (4th vs 3rd) and still needs to grab 3 stages in the next 6 remaining.

b) Pogacar didn't develop as a regular 20 year and Ayuso is going to develop in 3 seasons more then Pogacar did since 2019, which altough being possible it´s unlikely, just because after 2019 Pogacar won 2 of the 3 GT he was in.

So just to be at the same level Ayuso needs to win 1 GT next year, and another one in 2024. And it doesn't need to be TDF (i think we agree that's the most demandig and difficult of all the 3 GT) it could well be La Vuelta, once again it's possible for him to win 2 Vueltas in a row? Looking at his level already i wouldn't be surprised if he would, but still we are talking in the realm of possibilities.

In conclusion, at the very best scenario for the young Spaniard he can in the next 3 seasons be at the same level of what Pogacar already achieved so to speak about scraps...

As i said kind of a bold statement

 

[roundabout]

Pogacar was 20 about to turn 21 in 2019. Ayuso is 19 about to turn 20 now.

 

[groogster]

Obviously he‘ll go all the way to Madrid. He‘s 20 yrs old now, can become 4th in GC, and is riding the second half of the Vuelta being Covid positive. First GT for him.

I think he will ride the TdF for the first time in 2023, and win the TdF in 2024, then.

3rd in TdF GC in 2023, and 1st in TdF GC in 2024.

Ayuso, Evenepoel, Carlos Rodriguez and Vine were the surprises of this Vuelta, that‘s clear IMHO…

Don't think that he will do TDF next season, just because he has to be in La Vuelta and that it's a little to much for such a young rider to do 2 GT in a season and imo would do more harm than good.

 

[groogster]

Pogacar was 20 about to turn 21 in 2019. Ayuso is 19 about to turn 20 now.

Yes you're right, we are talking of a 1 year diference, my mistake. Even so i stand for all i said previously

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I saw that, so "if" he improves as a regular 20 year old Pogacar will be left with the scraps of Ayuso implies one of 2 things:

a) Ayuso is a better rider than Pogacar was at his age (19) which doesn't seem quite right. In 2019 just before turning 21 Pogacar did his first GT at La Vuelta ending in the Top3 and winning 3 stages while at it. Ayuso is doing extremely well, way above what we could expect for his first GT but not being better then Pogacar was at 2019 Vuelta, in fact until this stage a little worse (4th vs 3rd) and still needs to grab 3 stages in the next 6 remaining.

b) Pogacar didn't develop as a regular 20 year and Ayuso is going to develop in 3 seasons more then Pogacar did since 2019, which altough being possible it´s unlikely, just because after 2019 Pogacar won 2 of the 3 GT he was in.

So just to be at the same level Ayuso needs to win 1 GT next year, and another one in 2024. And it doesn't need to be TDF (i think we agree that's the most demandig and difficult of all the 3 GT) it could well be La Vuelta, once again it's possible for him to win 2 Vueltas in a row? Looking at his level already i wouldn't be surprised if he would, but still we are talking in the realm of possibilities.

In conclusion, at the very best scenario for the young Spaniard he can in the next 3 seasons be at the same level of what Pogacar already achieved so to speak about scraps...

As i said kind of a bold statement

I'm honoured you put so much time and effort reading and responding to my posts, but in this case you are reading way too much into it. Regardless, I think he has been more consistent than Pogacar was in his first Vuelta, which imho, had less fierce competition than this year. Pog was dropped a couple of times with/by lesser climbers, but he also was able to outdo the best at other times, the pinnacle being his raid in one of the last days that secured him his podium spot as well as his 3rd win (he was gifted one win by Roglic though). So Ayuso still has 1 year to improve. When Pog was Ayuso's age, he had just beaten Arensman by less than 90 seconds in GC at Tour de l'Avenir.

But anyway, not every comment is meant to be dissected and taken at face value. It was simply meant as a compliment regarding Ayuso's potential, hence there might have been some hyperbole for dramatic effect. Ayuso could turn into an absolute dominator. But if he doesn't improve like others his age, and if his body is simply 2 years ahead of his peers, then maybe he will not improve that much anymore. Maybe in 3 years at the age of 28 Sivakov turns into Froome 2.0 and starts mopping up everyone, making everybody yearn for the times when Bernal, Pogacar, Ayuso and Evenepoel were thought to be the future of cycling. Who knows.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Don't think that he will do TDF next season, just because he has to be in La Vuelta and that it's a little to much for such a young rider to do 2 GT in a season and imo would do more harm than good.

Yeah, but I think they’ll change that… I think they will let him ride the TdF next year, and he won‘t do the Vuelta next year. He now proved and proves that he has what is needed to win a GT, and that is what Vuelta 2022 was made for. He probably now will turn his full focus to TdF, at least until he wins the Tour.

He‘s Spanish, but another Vuelta now maybe would be „waste of time“. He‘s expected to win the Tour, probably can win the Tour, and certainly will be very hungry to ride the TdF as soon as possible…

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I saw that, so "if" he improves as a regular 20 year old Pogacar will be left with the scraps of Ayuso implies one of 2 things:

a) Ayuso is a better rider than Pogacar was at his age (19) which doesn't seem quite right. In 2019 just before turning 21 Pogacar did his first GT at La Vuelta ending in the Top3 and winning 3 stages while at it. Ayuso is doing extremely well, way above what we could expect for his first GT but not being better then Pogacar was at 2019 Vuelta, in fact until this stage a little worse (4th vs 3rd) and still needs to grab 3 stages in the next 6 remaining.

b) Pogacar didn't develop as a regular 20 year and Ayuso is going to develop in 3 seasons more then Pogacar did since 2019, which altough being possible it´s unlikely, just because after 2019 Pogacar won 2 of the 3 GT he was in.

So just to be at the same level Ayuso needs to win 1 GT next year, and another one in 2024. And it doesn't need to be TDF (i think we agree that's the most demandig and difficult of all the 3 GT) it could well be La Vuelta, once again it's possible for him to win 2 Vueltas in a row? Looking at his level already i wouldn't be surprised if he would, but still we are talking in the realm of possibilities.

In conclusion, at the very best scenario for the young Spaniard he can in the next 3 seasons be at the same level of what Pogacar already achieved so to speak about scraps...

As i said kind of a bold statement

Pogacar's Vuelta in 2019 was great and he had an alien performance on the penultimate stage. However, you can't directly compare it to Ayuso's Vuelta cause Juan is 1 year younger at this stage. Age adjusted comparisons should refer to Pogacar in 2018. That being said it's almost impossible to be better at the age of 21-22 than Pogacar was.

 

[carolina]

If he goes the Tour next year, UAE will have no leader for the Vuelta. Almeida is likely doing Giro-Tour and Poga will empty himself trying to win the Tour. I doubt he'll have the strength to do Tour-Vuelta.

I'd rather see him at the Vuelta again fighting for the win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If he goes the Tour next year, UAE will have no leader for the Vuelta. Almeida is likely doing Giro-Tour and Poga will empty himself trying to win the Tour. I doubt he'll have the strength to do Tour-Vuelta.

I'd rather see him at the Vuelta again fighting for the win.

Him being Spanish, him finishing top 5 already, him turning 20, and him being on UAE would indeed make this the most logical conclusion.

If he can fight for the podium, he'd rather do this at the Vuelta than at the Giro. He's not going to overrule Pogacar in 10 months, so the TDF should not be an option, even less so at that age.

 

[perico]

As long as Pogacar is leading the team in July in 2023, there is absolutely no point in sending Ayuso to the TdF. You have Almeida and McNulty (who was an absolute monster at the Tour and still young enough to qualify for the white jersey). Plus you have Soler (who has bounced back well at the Vuelta). What would be the point of taking Ayuso if he is not ready to win? You don't take a 20 year old like Ayuso to the TdF with the pressure of taking the jersey back for Teddy P., and you don't ride with co-leaders when you have a rider like Teddy on your team. The guys won two TdFs and is still a white jersey contender. Jumbo was a different situation since neither Roglic or Jonas had already won the TdF, and it's not like Team Sky/Ineos when you have a monopoly on the strongest riders. Even with all the talent at UAE, they aren't going to be as strong as Jumbo at the Tour next year and be able to outmuscle them.

Plus it's not like Ayuso is going anywhere to get his shot. He's signed through like 2040 or something. UAE has all the cards and can bring him along slowly.

 

[JosefK]

Sitting just one spot from the podium coming into the final week of La Vuelta 2022. Not bad for a 19-year-old rider.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Ayuso is doing great in this GT. But the idea on how now obviously he must do the Tour. And preferably to win it before Pogačar won his first Tour. In my opinion this is abuse. Even with Pogačar i feel they are forcing it. At least they didn't start doing two GTs per year already. We can always do that before he is 25. And then obviously Ayuso before 21. As by the time they are 27 we will have 17 year old kids doing GTs.

 

[Red Rick]

The logical decision should be to not decide before winter training camps. If there's indication that he's progressing so fast he can compete or at least be a 2ndary leader they should go for that.

After this Vuelta he should be ahead of Almeida in pecking order already.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think the logical decision should be to try to win some good races in the spring and then go all-in on the Vuelta when you have Pogacar on your team and Auso is spanish

 

[JosefK]

Ayuso has a real shot at the podium now, with Roglic's unfortunate crash.

 

[Landeirovic]

Ayuso has a real shot at the podium now, with Roglic's unfortunate crash.

Yes right! I think he will try this week and go all in!

 

[Oliver]

What a ride so far! Podium now.!

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Incredible result today, again. Let‘s wait for his overall ranking on Saturday evening.

Should he finish this Vuelta GC on the podium (3rd rank), then he achieved this aged 19. Pogacar achieved the same aged 20 (2019).

So should Ayuso become 3rd in Vuelta GC on Sunday, then I really believe they let him ride the TdF in 2023.