Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[Red Rick]

He will be up against Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel though. So the talent in this “generation” (a bit stretched but the others are not old as well) is just insane.

The effect of a small handful of top riders on blocking GT wins isn't that big. Dominant eras don't last as long as many often anticipate, and the top dogs tend to concentrate at the Tour anyway. It was like 3 months ago Pogacar had the next 5 Tours about sealed.

It's still pretty hard to assess how good he'll become. Pogacar was a year older when he got 3rd, but it was also Pogs first WT year and he won a load of races and 3 stages at that Vuelta already.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar to Giro next year. Leave the Tour for the big boys.

Not at all. Pogi will play Roglic's role from this Tour: fake leader to fool JV.

 

[Netserk]

The effect of a small handful of top riders on blocking GT wins isn't that big. Dominant eras don't last as long as many often anticipate, and the top dogs tend to concentrate at the Tour anyway. It was like 3 months ago Pogacar had the next 5 Tours about sealed.

It's still pretty hard to assess how good he'll become. Pogacar was a year older when he got 3rd, but it was also Pogs first WT year and he won a load of races and 3 stages at that Vuelta already.

A year ago it was clear that Pogi, Rogla and Bernal would dominate and completely block the top step of the podium of this year's GTs. But wait, neither of them won any.

 

[Lequack]

He says he wants to win the Vuelta next year.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/ayuso-sets-victory-at-vuelta-a-espana-as-his-big-objective-of-2023/

 

[ice&fire]

He says he wants to win the Vuelta next year.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/ayuso-sets-victory-at-vuelta-a-espana-as-his-big-objective-of-2023/

He knows Evenepoel is unlikely to defend his win, Vingegaard is unlikely to do two GTs, Pogacar won't do the Vuelta next year, and Mas will finish second no matter what. It's him vs Roglic bike handling skills.

 

[staubsauger]

In all seriousness though, I like the let's first win this attempt rather than bragging about a potential Tour de France debut already. Shows the right mindset and mentality.

 

[Top Climber]

The Greatest Teenage Climber in History - Juan Ayuso - Lanterne Rouge

Juan Ayuso became the second youngest rider in history to finish on a Grand Tour podium at the Vuelta 2022, with Henri Cornet being the youngest as the winner of the Tour de France in 1904. At only 19 years old, the Spaniard proved that he already is one of the best GC riders and climbers in the...

lanternerouge.com.au

 

[KZD]

The Greatest Teenage Climber in History - Juan Ayuso - Lanterne Rouge

Juan Ayuso became the second youngest rider in history to finish on a Grand Tour podium at the Vuelta 2022, with Henri Cornet being the youngest as the winner of the Tour de France in 1904. At only 19 years old, the Spaniard proved that he already is one of the best GC riders and climbers in the...

lanternerouge.com.au

Good article.

We already knew that Ayuso was a very talented rider even before this season, but after finishing the year with a third place in the Vuelta at just 19 years of age with covid in between, expectations become even higher. We will need a few more years to know if he is indeed better than Pogacar and the rest but I already expect him to start the Vuelta next year as one of the top favourites and to probably win a World Tour stage race during the spring. Given his fast sprint, it will be interesting to see if he will develop the engine that Remco or Pogacar have for the monuments/WC or if he will be more of a stage racer like Vingegaard.

 

[ooo]

LR posted video version of this article:

 

[Red Rick]

Odds that Pogacar not racing Vuelta is actually due to UAE appeasing Ayuso?

 

[Andy schleck]

Odds that Pogacar not racing Vuelta is actually due to UAE appeasing Ayuso?

I think next year, ayuso, pogacar and almeida will be together at la vuelta. Joao almeida already confirmed yesterday on portuguese television that he is going to the giro as a leader, and then he will also go to the vuelta.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think next year, ayuso, pogacar and almeida will be together at la vuelta. Joao almeida already confirmed yesterday on portuguese television that he is going to the giro as a leader, and then he will also go to the vuelta.

Don't you think that Almeida will be at the Tour? Or did he say that he will do the Vuelta?

 

[Andy schleck]

Don't you think that Almeida will be at the Tour? Or did he say that he will do the Vuelta?

He said that he will do the giro and vuelta. No tour for him.

 

[Nick2413]

Odds that Pogacar not racing Vuelta is actually due to UAE appeasing Ayuso?

It’s so they can win all 3 GTs in one year with 3 different riders.

 

[Andy schleck]

U

It’s so they can win all 3 GTs in one year with 3 different riders.

Unfortunately i don't think joao almeida will be capable of winning the giro. He confirmed that is FTP is around 380 Watts, and his height race of 65 kg. That gives a FTP of 5.8 w/kg. He would need to improve a lot.
He said this information, this week in a interview on portuguese television.

 

[Red Rick]

Almeida could I feel is more likely to get 10 top 5s without ever winning

 

[Nick2413]

Almeida could I feel is more likely to get 10 top 5s without ever winning

My vibe is that UAE is going to take a terminator style approach to this season and will have their bases covered to not get the Bahrain treatment.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Almeida could I feel is more likely to get 10 top 5s without ever winning

That's quite possible. The thing about Almeida is that as a youth he was showing some very promising (though not otherworldly) results, and then in his final year (maybe two, can't remember) as a u23 he stalled dramatically. So by the time QuickStep snagged him up, nobody was really paying attention to him anymore. Pogacar had just won Avenir, finished 3rd in the Vuelta, Evenepoel had a successful first season, Bernal had won the TDF, even Sosa and Higuita were bigger prospects. All of them had shown themselves at the pros and were roughly his age.

My point being, it's possible people had been thrown off by his meteoric rise as a pro in 2020. His Giro result came out of left-field, because people were looking at his most recent few seasons and it seemed like he was making huge improvements out of nowhere, unclear where it could end. But looking back further, his Giro result was not really that much of a surprise because before 2019 he actually did show he had what it takes to be a GC rider. So his Giro result, and all other GC results since, may simply have been more of a "getting back on track" of his curve of progression where he should have been, looking back over the past 4 or so years, rather than just looking at his progression since 2019 which would give the impression of a meteoric rise out of nowhere with no end in sight.

 

[Berniece]

My point being, it's possible people had been thrown off by his meteoric rise as a pro in 2020. His Giro result came out of left-field, because people were looking at his most recent few seasons and it seemed like he was making huge improvements out of nowhere, unclear where it could end. But looking back further, his Giro result was not really that much of a surprise because before 2019 he actually did show he had what it takes to be a GC rider. So his Giro result, and all other GC results since, may simply have been more of a "getting back on track" of his curve of progression where he should have been, looking back over the past 4 or so years, rather than just looking at his progression since 2019 which would give the impression of a meteoric rise out of nowhere with no end in sight.

But what is his excuse for the past 2 years then? I don't have a feeling he improved much since his Giro in 2020.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

But what is his excuse for the past 2 years then? I don't have a feeling he improved much since his Giro in 2020.

Why does he need an excuse? As i explained, we might have overestimated him based on the progress he made from 2019 to 2021, while we should have been looking at the progress he made from 2017 to 2021, which shows a more natural/moderate progression. The jump from 2019 to 2020 was huge, mainly because 2019 was a bad year for him. He isn't a super talent like Pogacar, Evenepoel or Ayuso appears to be. But he still is a very good GC talent. I think in 2022 we didn't see his true potential. Maybe the transfer hasn't panned out as he expected, and on top of that covid ruined his Giro which made him go to the Vuelta which probably wasn't planned last year (at least not as a leader, i assume).

 

[groogster]

U
Unfortunately i don't think joao almeida will be capable of winning the giro. He confirmed that is FTP is around 380 Watts, and his height race of 65 kg. That gives a FTP of 5.8 w/kg. He would need to improve a lot.
He said this information, this week in a interview on portuguese television.

He's very capable of delivering more than 6w/kg in a 60 minutes effort. Just look at his watts at (not all of them 1 hour long efforts but) :

2020

Piancavallo - 6,27

2021

Superga 6,69
Alpe di Mera 6,27
Prati di Tivo 6,13
Sega Di Ala 6,02

2022

Jebel Haffet 6,27
Santa Cristina 6,17

Besides and according to Iñigo San Millan he will be better than last season as pure watts/Kg so i guess we´ll have to wait and see how it will go.
I was also taught that he will be around 63Kg for this year Giro so in that case his FTP would be around 6w/Kg. Having said that it's not enough to be a GT winner with all the monster riders that we have atm (Pogacar, Remco, Vingegaard, Roglic).

 

[Andy schleck]

He's very capable of delivering more than 6w/kg in a 60 minutes effort. Just look at his watts at (not all of them 1 hour long efforts but) :

2020

Piancavallo - 6,27

2021

Superga 6,69
Alpe di Mera 6,27
Prati di Tivo 6,13
Sega Di Ala 6,02

2022

Jebel Haffet 6,27
Santa Cristina 6,17

Besides and according to Iñigo San Millan he will be better than last season as pure watts/Kg so i guess we´ll have to wait and see how it will go.
I was also taught that he will be around 63Kg for this year Giro so in that case his FTP would be around 6w/Kg. Having said that it's not enough to be a GT winner with all the monster riders that we have atm (Pogacar, Remco, Vingegaard, Roglic).

I hope you're right. I also think that is FTP believing in his words, were a bit low. But i don't know, that's what he said. Maybe he is hiding his carts.

 

[groogster]

I hope you're right. I also think that is FTP believing in his words, were a bit low. But i don't know, that's what he said. Maybe he is hiding his carts.

I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?

Yeah, at channel eleven.
He said that his weight during competition is 65 kg/ 65.5 kg, and during the interview they asked him if his FTP was 380 W. He confirmed that number.

So i'm making a assumption that is FTP is a bit low, 380/65.5= 5.85 w/kg.

But like i said, he could be hiding his cards, and not telling the truth.

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?

I also agree that it's almost impossible for him to beat pogacar or vingegaard.
Pogacar's coach said last year that he can sustain 414 W during an hour. That could be his FTP. And pogacar just weighs a little bit more than almeida.