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Juan Ayuso discussion thread

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Nick2413

Dec 2, 2020
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Red Rick said:
Almeida could I feel is more likely to get 10 top 5s without ever winning
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My vibe is that UAE is going to take a terminator style approach to this season and will have their bases covered to not get the Bahrain treatment.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Red Rick said:
Almeida could I feel is more likely to get 10 top 5s without ever winning
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That's quite possible. The thing about Almeida is that as a youth he was showing some very promising (though not otherworldly) results, and then in his final year (maybe two, can't remember) as a u23 he stalled dramatically. So by the time QuickStep snagged him up, nobody was really paying attention to him anymore. Pogacar had just won Avenir, finished 3rd in the Vuelta, Evenepoel had a successful first season, Bernal had won the TDF, even Sosa and Higuita were bigger prospects. All of them had shown themselves at the pros and were roughly his age.

My point being, it's possible people had been thrown off by his meteoric rise as a pro in 2020. His Giro result came out of left-field, because people were looking at his most recent few seasons and it seemed like he was making huge improvements out of nowhere, unclear where it could end. But looking back further, his Giro result was not really that much of a surprise because before 2019 he actually did show he had what it takes to be a GC rider. So his Giro result, and all other GC results since, may simply have been more of a "getting back on track" of his curve of progression where he should have been, looking back over the past 4 or so years, rather than just looking at his progression since 2019 which would give the impression of a meteoric rise out of nowhere with no end in sight.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
My point being, it's possible people had been thrown off by his meteoric rise as a pro in 2020. His Giro result came out of left-field, because people were looking at his most recent few seasons and it seemed like he was making huge improvements out of nowhere, unclear where it could end. But looking back further, his Giro result was not really that much of a surprise because before 2019 he actually did show he had what it takes to be a GC rider. So his Giro result, and all other GC results since, may simply have been more of a "getting back on track" of his curve of progression where he should have been, looking back over the past 4 or so years, rather than just looking at his progression since 2019 which would give the impression of a meteoric rise out of nowhere with no end in sight.
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But what is his excuse for the past 2 years then? I don't have a feeling he improved much since his Giro in 2020.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Berniece said:
But what is his excuse for the past 2 years then? I don't have a feeling he improved much since his Giro in 2020.
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Why does he need an excuse? As i explained, we might have overestimated him based on the progress he made from 2019 to 2021, while we should have been looking at the progress he made from 2017 to 2021, which shows a more natural/moderate progression. The jump from 2019 to 2020 was huge, mainly because 2019 was a bad year for him. He isn't a super talent like Pogacar, Evenepoel or Ayuso appears to be. But he still is a very good GC talent. I think in 2022 we didn't see his true potential. Maybe the transfer hasn't panned out as he expected, and on top of that covid ruined his Giro which made him go to the Vuelta which probably wasn't planned last year (at least not as a leader, i assume).
 
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groogster

May 18, 2021
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Andy schleck said:
U
Unfortunately i don't think joao almeida will be capable of winning the giro. He confirmed that is FTP is around 380 Watts, and his height race of 65 kg. That gives a FTP of 5.8 w/kg. He would need to improve a lot.
He said this information, this week in a interview on portuguese television.
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He's very capable of delivering more than 6w/kg in a 60 minutes effort. Just look at his watts at (not all of them 1 hour long efforts but) :

2020

Piancavallo - 6,27

2021

Superga 6,69
Alpe di Mera 6,27
Prati di Tivo 6,13
Sega Di Ala 6,02

2022

Jebel Haffet 6,27
Santa Cristina 6,17

Besides and according to Iñigo San Millan he will be better than last season as pure watts/Kg so i guess we´ll have to wait and see how it will go.
I was also taught that he will be around 63Kg for this year Giro so in that case his FTP would be around 6w/Kg. Having said that it's not enough to be a GT winner with all the monster riders that we have atm (Pogacar, Remco, Vingegaard, Roglic).
 
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Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
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groogster said:
He's very capable of delivering more than 6w/kg in a 60 minutes effort. Just look at his watts at (not all of them 1 hour long efforts but) :

2020

Piancavallo - 6,27

2021

Superga 6,69
Alpe di Mera 6,27
Prati di Tivo 6,13
Sega Di Ala 6,02

2022

Jebel Haffet 6,27
Santa Cristina 6,17

Besides and according to Iñigo San Millan he will be better than last season as pure watts/Kg so i guess we´ll have to wait and see how it will go.
I was also taught that he will be around 63Kg for this year Giro so in that case his FTP would be around 6w/Kg. Having said that it's not enough to be a GT winner with all the monster riders that we have atm (Pogacar, Remco, Vingegaard, Roglic).
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I hope you're right. I also think that is FTP believing in his words, were a bit low. But i don't know, that's what he said. Maybe he is hiding his carts.
 
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groogster

May 18, 2021
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Andy schleck said:
I hope you're right. I also think that is FTP believing in his words, were a bit low. But i don't know, that's what he said. Maybe he is hiding his carts.
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I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?
 
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Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
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groogster said:
I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?
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Yeah, at channel eleven.
He said that his weight during competition is 65 kg/ 65.5 kg, and during the interview they asked him if his FTP was 380 W. He confirmed that number.

So i'm making a assumption that is FTP is a bit low, 380/65.5= 5.85 w/kg.

But like i said, he could be hiding his cards, and not telling the truth.
 
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Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
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groogster said:
I'm not seing his FTP being below 6w/Kg. But as i said not high enough to contest the big dogs in normal circunstances. He will have to deal with Evenepoel at this Giro and with 3 iTT easily loosing between 2 and 3 minutes to him. But if on peak form he will be one of the favourites for a podium.
Where did you see Almeida interview BTW? At channel eleven (onze)?
Click to expand...
I also agree that it's almost impossible for him to beat pogacar or vingegaard.
Pogacar's coach said last year that he can sustain 414 W during an hour. That could be his FTP. And pogacar just weighs a little bit more than almeida.
 
Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
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Red Rick said:
I can believe 414 easily when really fresh in a lab setting.
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It would be interesting to know, how many watts he did on planche des belles filles ITT. It was almost one hour effort.
Roglic's power data says that he did an average of 369 on that ITT. He was almost 2 minutes slow than pogacar.
 
E

Earns1985

Apr 26, 2019
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Any idea, when he will start the season now?

After his cancellation of Valencia, he was scheduled for Jaén Paraiso Interior and Andalucia, but with Pogacar now riding these two races he is not in the squad for these races anymore..
 
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Earns1985

Apr 26, 2019
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balac

Dec 1, 2022
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Matxin said today that he has started training again after recovering from tendinitis but still lightly....In the next week he will start training hard. Wouldn't commit to where he starts his season., It looked at least 2-3 weeks away by what he was saying. Maybe he can ride Tirreno? Or directly to Catalunya.
 
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Lequack

Lequack

Jul 10, 2014
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Skijumper Roglic fan

Aug 28, 2021
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Lequack said:
Well that sucks. Says it's tendinitis of the Achilles's tendon that keeps persisting?
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Vingegaard had same injury two or three years ago (Achilles tendon tendinitis), but recovered very well… Hope Ayuso recovers well, too…

Probably just bad luck… I once had the same at the front side of the ankle, trained too much too early after a break… You learn from it…

To get to know limits, you have to get close to these limits. And it can happen you exceed the limits sometimes. You only know afterwards, sadly…

Get well soon, Ayuso… Take your time.

EDIT: Now, Ayuso has the situation Jan Ullrich had most springs: delayed and delayed his season start (in Jan‘s case, normally until Sarthe in April). In Jan‘s case, probably due to a lack of professionalism - in Ayuso‘s case, it might just be exactly the opposite.
 
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