Teams & Riders Julian Alaphilippe Discussion Thread

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.

30 km is a lot though and a lot of regrouping could take place there. The big climb in Tokyo isn't that much harder than Civiglio in Lombardia, but there is about twice as much road left after it. I think Alaphilippe is one of the big favorites.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.

30 km is a lot though and a lot of regrouping could take place there. The big climb in Tokyo isn't that much harder than Civiglio in Lombardia, but there is about twice as much road left after it. I think Alaphilippe is one of the big favorites.

We all have to keep in mind that there are only five riders for the best nations. Carnage has to be expected.

 

[Valv.Piti]

6 km at 11% is quite a lot harder than Civiglio. Its a Glieres/Ermita de Alba type of climb

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.

30 km is a lot though and a lot of regrouping could take place there. The big climb in Tokyo isn't that much harder than Civiglio in Lombardia, but there is about twice as much road left after it. I think Alaphilippe is one of the big favorites.

We all have to keep in mind that there are only five riders for the best nations. Carnage has to be expected.

Well, that didn't keep GVA from winning an Olympic RR that should have been too hard for him.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.

30 km is a lot though and a lot of regrouping could take place there. The big climb in Tokyo isn't that much harder than Civiglio in Lombardia, but there is about twice as much road left after it. I think Alaphilippe is one of the big favorites.

We all have to keep in mind that there are only five riders for the best nations. Carnage has to be expected.

Well, that didn't keep GVA from winning an Olympic RR that should have been too hard for him.

Sometimes you have this thing happening where hell freezes over, stars align and where riders who just recked your ass crash out because they're trying to rather than settle for a medal.

It's a climb where if you're dropped you can easily lose a minute+ and never see the front of the race again.

Alaphilippe can't climb with the best when it's over 10 minutes, why would he be there when it's closer to 25 minutes at a steep gradient.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

6 km at 11% is quite a lot harder than Civiglio. Its a Glieres/Ermita de Alba type of climb

It's 2.6 km longer but only 0.5% steeper (it has a 10.2% gradient according to Flamme Rouge). To be fair I didn't know it has an over 12% steep and 4 km long section in the middle and those super high gradients are something the relatively steep bur regular Civiglio climb doesn't have. Anyway, considering the much longer distance to the finish from the top of mikuni pass I still think this finale suits Alaphilippe about as well as the Lombardia finale.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

6 km at 11% is quite a lot harder than Civiglio. Its a Glieres/Ermita de Alba type of climb

It's 2.6 km longer but only 0.5% steeper (it has a 10.2% gradient according to Flamme Rouge). To be fair I didn't know it has an over 12% steep and 4 km long section in the middle and those super high gradients are something the relatively steep bur regular Civiglio climb doesn't have. Anyway, considering the much longer distance to the finish from the top of mikuni pass I still think this finale suits Alaphilippe about as well as the Lombardia finale.

Just going by the profile I don't think the terrain that follows is very good to close gaps.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.

I still think that the odds are against Alaphalippe but his climbing in 2018 is a step up from 16/17, so if he can continue the same rate of improvement till 2020 ( which is questionable ) he's a chance - I will add that with Guimard at the helm he is very much for one rider instead of having viable 2nd or 3rd options.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

6 km at 11% is quite a lot harder than Civiglio. Its a Glieres/Ermita de Alba type of climb

It's 2.6 km longer but only 0.5% steeper (it has a 10.2% gradient according to Flamme Rouge). To be fair I didn't know it has an over 12% steep and 4 km long section in the middle and those super high gradients are something the relatively steep bur regular Civiglio climb doesn't have. Anyway, considering the much longer distance to the finish from the top of mikuni pass I still think this finale suits Alaphilippe about as well as the Lombardia finale.

Just going by the profile I don't think the terrain that follows is very good to close gaps.

We will see at latest in 2020, but I think a race like Sunday's would have completely regrouped if there were still 30 k to go after that final climb. Ofc the climb in 2020 is very different and one where you can expect bigger time gaps but still, 30 k is a lot and pure climbers are often not great at making long solos. Alaphilippe maybe isn't a big favorite like I first wrote it but I still think he is a contender with a decent chance to win gold because I think as soon as there is a big regrouping taking place he suddenly becomes the clear favorite.

 

[tobydawq]

This guy...

Maybe the highest mountains don't agree with him but at least he can win flat sprints.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

This guy...

Maybe the highest mountains don't agree with him but at least he can win flat sprints.

He is overrated as a climber but underrated as a all-rounder. He can also do a very nice ITT even when it's flat.

He should still go on Poggio in MSR, though.

 

[Akuryo]

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

Top contender to attack on the Poggio maybe, not a top contender for the win though...

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

Top contender to attack on the Poggio maybe, not a top contender for the win though...

If he attacks there are few who can follow and even fewer who can outsprint him afterwards. I'd say he has good chances. Maybe not Gilbert before LBL in 2011 odds but still pretty good ones.

 

[Velolover2]

Who can even follow him on Poggio other than a Sagan in top shape?

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Who can even follow him on Poggio other than a Sagan in top shape?

Maybe Kwiatkowski. Is he even riding this year?

Valverde?

Matthews?

GVA?

Moscon (normally but certainly not this year)?

But yeah, Sagan would be the best bet to follow him. I can see the two of them getting a way.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

Top contender to attack on the Poggio maybe, not a top contender for the win though...

If he attacks there are few who can follow and even fewer who can outsprint him afterwards. I'd say he has good chances. Maybe not Gilbert before LBL in 2011 odds but still pretty good ones.

If he attacks on the Poggio, I'd say he'll finish outside of top 10 easily... This is a sprinters race, he had his chance two years ago.

 

[Sestriere]

Re: Re:

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

Top contender to attack on the Poggio maybe, not a top contender for the win though...

If he attacks there are few who can follow and even fewer who can outsprint him afterwards. I'd say he has good chances. Maybe not Gilbert before LBL in 2011 odds but still pretty good ones.

If he attacks on the Poggio, I'd say he'll finish outside of top 10 easily... This is a sprinters race, he had his chance two years ago.

(Durable) Sprinters have a good opportunity to win but, looking at recent history, strong attackers always had their say:
(To strengthen my point I'll start this recapitulation in 2011 )

2011: The race breaks up on the descent of La Manie. A group gets clear on Cipressa and on the Poggio Van Avermaet drops his companions and looks set tp win solo until Nibali closes the gap and drags a very select group clear. Of all people, Matthew Goss wins the race.

2012: Nibali attacks on Poggio, he, Gerrans and Cancellara go clear. Fabian pulls all the way to last 200 m where he gets outsprinted by the Australian.

2013: In horrible weather conditions a small group with Sagan, Cancellara and Ciolek goess clear on the Poggio. Sagan is the huge favourite and pulls every move back himself. Ciolek hides in the colours of the ProConti team and wins the sprint.

2014-2016: "Classic" Milan-Sanremo reduced bunch sprint with Kristoff, Degenkolb and Démare as winners.

2017: Sagan attacks furiously towards the top of the Poggio, Alaphilippe drags Kwiatkowski across and they can make the junction just ahead of the crest. Sagan does most of the work and pulls way too hard in the last kilometer, then starts his sprint early and gets beaten on the line by Kwiatek.

2018: Nibali follows an outsider's move on the Poggio and catches many by surprise. The strong headwind blocks the chase while Sagan is mostly busy carrying out his personal feud with Kwiatkowski. The shark solos to victory.

All in all, of the last 8 editions only 3 came down to the classic reduced bunch sprint scenario.

 

[Velolover2]

In Milano-Sanremo, they found the perfect formala with Cipressa and Poggio. A nice balance between favoring late escapees and high stamina sprinters. That is why it's a monument.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

Sagan at his peak could definitely go with Alaphilippe (as in 2017) but I'm not sure many others could. Kwiatkowski was clearly the weakest of the lead three on Poggio in 2017, and Alaphilippe is stronger now, but he might be able to go with him.

Alaphilippe's formula to win is basically what Nibali did last year, although possibly attacking a little later. If he gets over the top with 7-8 seconds I don't think they'll see him again (his descending is superior to Nibali's in my opinion).

 

[Tonton]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

Two stages. Even if the GC didn't pan out, what a rider!Alaf' is a favorite for MSR, or just about any race he enters. But for all the fun and name-playing, he;s not so much of a Bala(philippe) and maybe more of a Jala(philippe), if you think of pre-transformation Jalabert after the crash/cop/94.

For the "if not a sprinter" picks in MSR, Sagan in a sprinter too and can win anything, Alaf' is no slouch as a sprinter, Kwiat is smart, Nibali is even smarter, they can attack on the Poggio and make a difference. One or two opportunists on a great day can follow and maybe spoil it.

It goes to show how several years ago, MSR was chastised, how the finish was not suited for modern cycling, Poggio not hard enough, blah blah blah...the more we think we know, the less we know .

It's a long race, the finish can make a difference, riders make the race and more often than not it is WOW!

I'm looking forward to it...and Julian is, I bet.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

He will. After Gilbert and maybe Stybar soften the other guys up. We know it and yet there is no way to prevent it. And since Sagan ist not at 100% yet I honestly think that Alaphilippe is the top contender this year. He looks mighty strong on terrain like that currently.

Top contender to attack on the Poggio maybe, not a top contender for the win though...

If he attacks there are few who can follow and even fewer who can outsprint him afterwards. I'd say he has good chances. Maybe not Gilbert before LBL in 2011 odds but still pretty good ones.

If he attacks on the Poggio, I'd say he'll finish outside of top 10 easily... This is a sprinters race, he had his chance two years ago.

(Durable) Sprinters have a good opportunity to win but, looking at recent history, strong attackers always had their say:
(To strengthen my point I'll start this recapitulation in 2011 )

2011: The race breaks up on the descent of La Manie. A group gets clear on Cipressa and on the Poggio Van Avermaet drops his companions and looks set tp win solo until Nibali closes the gap and drags a very select group clear. Of all people, Matthew Goss wins the race.

2012: Nibali attacks on Poggio, he, Gerrans and Cancellara go clear. Fabian pulls all the way to last 200 m where he gets outsprinted by the Australian.

2013: In horrible weather conditions a small group with Sagan, Cancellara and Ciolek goess clear on the Poggio. Sagan is the huge favourite and pulls every move back himself. Ciolek hides in the colours of the ProConti team and wins the sprint.

2014-2016: "Classic" Milan-Sanremo reduced bunch sprint with Kristoff, Degenkolb and Démare as winners.

2017: Sagan attacks furiously towards the top of the Poggio, Alaphilippe drags Kwiatkowski across and they can make the junction just ahead of the crest. Sagan does most of the work and pulls way too hard in the last kilometer, then starts his sprint early and gets beaten on the line by Kwiatek.

2018: Nibali follows an outsider's move on the Poggio and catches many by surprise. The strong headwind blocks the chase while Sagan is mostly busy carrying out his personal feud with Kwiatkowski. The shark solos to victory.

All in all, of the last 8 editions only 3 came down to the classic reduced bunch sprint scenario.

Thanks for the recap. Shows that Sagan should have won a few of those...on any given day he's the strongest rider but he needs to do a better job hiding that fact.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

What else is there to say? Amazing rider. Finally, Julian gets a monument, the only question is: how many more will he win? He was a beast today.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

What else is there to say? Amazing rider. Finally, Julian gets a monument, the only question is: how many more will he win? He was a beast today.

I'm setting the over/under at 5,5.
Might go easily over if Lombardia goes back to an easier route.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

What else is there to say? Amazing rider. Finally, Julian gets a monument, the only question is: how many more will he win? He was a beast today.

Probably not that many I'd say.

He will be a favourite for Liege every year, but MSR is kind of a lottery and I think Lombardia is too hard atm. Isn't riding Roubaix and Flanders.

Should be happy to win, say, 4 monuments. These are damn hard to get. He will win lots and lots of classics though - AGR, Flèche, Strade, San Sebastian and the Canadians classics er right up his alley.