Just the facts on the latest Astana doping scandal

[palmerq]

I didnt read through these threads cause after around 2 posts they turn to nonsense... no offence to the posters :S

But I have one question. Was it the tdf or giro the danish(I think) doctor said armstrongs blood values looked like he had been having blood transfusions or whatever?.... and now this..... I think astana were certainly at it during the tour..

 

[red_flanders]

I didnt read through these threads cause after around 2 posts they turn to nonsense... no offence to the posters :S

But I have one question. Was it the tdf or giro the danish(I think) doctor said armstrongs blood values looked like he had been having blood transfusions or whatever?.... and now this..... I think astana were certainly at it during the tour..

The Tour. I was thinking today again how surprised I was when Armstrong confidently stated on the rest day how he wasn't going to lose any time to Franck Schleck on Ventoux--really weird given how the race had developed previously. Totally confident response. He'd been riding better the previous day, but I really thought his statement was strange.

 

[poupou]

Some elements for making your mind :

h

WillyVoet worte in Breaking the chain that it was not possible to increase hematocrit during TDF because of work done by riders... seems that blood transfusion could be the solution

 

[poupou]

The Tour. I was thinking today again how surprised I was when Armstrong confidently stated on the rest day how he wasn't going to lose any time to Franck Schleck on Ventoux--really weird given how the race had developed previously. Totally confident response. He'd been riding better the previous day, but I really thought his statement was strange.

When I heard him after his Annecy performance I thought he was going to receive some fresh blood and he think that others would be worried to do the same

 

[stephens]

I used to be more convinced by the changes in hematocrit values and statements that such and such can't rise naturally without such and such rising and if it does it means doping and so on. Until I saw my own hematocrit numbers drop like a rock and then later recover somewhat with no evidence ever found to explain why (and of course none of the predicted changes that normally accompany such changes up or down). If my hematologists can't figure it out, I find it hard to believe cycling journalists declarations about blood values.

As for exercise induced asthma, I have that and just pre-treat with albuterol sulfate (usually works great) but don't see what that has to do with anything regarding this latest case.

 

[red_flanders]

I used to be more convinced by the changes in hematocrit values and statements that such and such can't rise naturally without such and such rising and if it does it means doping and so on. Until I saw my own hematocrit numbers drop like a rock and then later recover somewhat with no evidence ever found to explain why (and of course none of the predicted changes that normally accompany such changes up or down). If my hematologists can't figure it out, I find it hard to believe cycling journalists declarations about blood values.

As for exercise induced asthma, I have that and just pre-treat with albuterol sulfate (usually works great) but don't see what that has to do with anything regarding this latest case.

That's interesting about your case, but I've heard plenty of doctors state what's said about hematocrit and cyclists. Never paid any attention to a journalist on the topic. Plenty of doctors have stated it would be very strange to see the levels recover, but of course you can't sanction someone as it's not impossible that it could happen. It's suspicious.

 

[L29205]

The Tour. I was thinking today again how surprised I was when Armstrong confidently stated on the rest day how he wasn't going to lose any time to Franck Schleck on Ventoux--really weird given how the race had developed previously. Totally confident response. He'd been riding better the previous day, but I really thought his statement was strange.

While I agree with PouPou that LA's blood was cooked, the data that was presented is pretty solid. I will say no matter how weak I was in a given situation I would never let anyone know that I was concerned about my ability to face my competition. LA saying he would not lose time was simple showmanship, in the back of his mind he may have been justifying it with the cooked blood. But I would say whatever it take to make my competition keep me in their mind.

L

 

[ChrisE]

I didnt read through these threads cause after around 2 posts they turn to nonsense... no offence to the posters :S

But I have one question. Was it the tdf or giro the danish(I think) doctor said armstrongs blood values looked like he had been having blood transfusions or whatever?.... and now this..... I think astana were certainly at it during the tour..

Maybe you should read more instead of asking stupid questions. The answer to your question has been discussed in many threads and posts.

Hopefully rf has answered your question in a "sensible" way. He has more patience than I do for arrogant dumba$$es.

 

[Rex Hunter]

I used to be more convinced by the changes in hematocrit values and statements that such and such can't rise naturally without such and such rising and if it does it means doping and so on. Until I saw my own hematocrit numbers drop like a rock and then later recover somewhat with no evidence ever found to explain why (and of course none of the predicted changes that normally accompany such changes up or down). If my hematologists can't figure it out, I find it hard to believe cycling journalists declarations about blood values.

As for exercise induced asthma, I have that and just pre-treat with albuterol sulfate (usually works great) but don't see what that has to do with anything regarding this latest case.

Interesting, thanks.

There is what is average, and then there is outside of average. Problem with publishing numbers is they can, like you say, bounce around for no reason, but rather than just saying this is outside of average, it becomes cast iron fact that you doped.

 

[palmerq]

Hopefully rf has answered your question in a "sensible" way. He has more patience than I do for arrogant dumba$$es.

he did :S good work.

 

[stephens]

BTW, when I said the changes in my hematocrit were without the usual predicted changes, I meant in other blood values. What was for sure was that when numbers were low, I was really down on energy and could hardly ride the damn bike. Heart rate was elevated, etc. When they came back up to 38 or 39 level, I could kind of ride now. I'm still basically starting over as far as fitness goes, but at least it's fun again.

I'm a real believer in the power of red blood cell, ha!

 

[L29205]

Interesting, thanks.

There is what is average, and then there is outside of average. Problem with publishing numbers is they can, like you say, bounce around for no reason, but rather than just saying this is outside of average, it becomes cast iron fact that you doped.

While I can understand the concerns of stephens and the related doubts, consistent monitoring provides baselines for most abnormalities. I had a couple of grand maul seizures in my late 20's, my MRI's, CT Scans and EEG testing never pointed to anything. I was an abnormality, I didn't have a tumor, I didn't have epilepsy, I was a simple blip in the data. I am not discounting stephens experiences I am sure that they sucked. But the original point of the Bio-passport, was to provide a multi-year baseline that can average out the spikes in the data.

Stephen, I hope you don't feel that I am directly attacking you, it is not my intention. I still have ongoing issues with short term memory loss but no more seizures. I hope that your doctors have been able to help you out in our health problems. Mine have been suspect at best.

So what was I talking about

 

[Hugh Januss]

While I can understand the concerns of stephens and the related doubts, consistent monitoring provides baselines for most abnormalities. I had a couple of grand maul seizures in my late 20's, my MRI's, CT Scans and EEG testing never pointed to anything. I was an abnormality, I didn't have a tumor, I didn't have epilepsy, I was a simple blip in the data. I am not discounting stephens experiences I am sure that they sucked. But the original point of the Bio-passport, was to provide a multi-year baseline that can average out the spikes in the data.

Stephen, I hope you don't feel that I am directly attacking you, it is not my intention. I still have ongoing issues with short term memory loss but no more seizures. I hope that your doctors have been able to help you out in our health problems. Mine have been suspect at best.

So what was I talking about

I think you were saying that just because an individual with some unexplained health problems has some test numbers that defy known parameters, that doesn't make it a good explanation for odd test results in a healthy top level athlete. Or maybe I missed the point?

 

[stephens]

That of course is a very good point. And it allows us to suspect odd numbers in pro athletes. But I'm still bothered by anything that is so open to interpretation and in fact requires interpretation. We shouldn't be trying to connect the dots. We should have rules that can be enforced very directly and scientifically. Fail the test, you're out.

The fact that such tests don't currently exist for the rules people wish to enforce doesn't point to a failure of tests, it points to an inappropriate rule. Rules must be about things that can be known concretely.

And I still say all such penalties should be from within the sport, not criminal. Ban the rider, take back prizes and redistribute them etc. But to have the governments get involved? Crazy. What's next, criminal charges against Thierry Henry for his recent handball goal and not fessing up to it immediately? Think of all the glory he robbed from the Irish! Throw him in prison!

 

[blackcat]

I used to be more convinced by the changes in hematocrit values and statements that such and such can't rise naturally without such and such rising and if it does it means doping and so on. Until I saw my own hematocrit numbers drop like a rock and then later recover somewhat with no evidence ever found to explain why (and of course none of the predicted changes that normally accompany such changes up or down). If my hematologists can't figure it out, I find it hard to believe cycling journalists declarations about blood values.

As for exercise induced asthma, I have that and just pre-treat with albuterol sulfate (usually works great) but don't see what that has to do with anything regarding this latest case.

I concede the anecdote... however.

The is a remarkable correlation, with high crit, high power output. And rising crit, and rising recovery/power/maintaining power/etc as a GT goes on.

Is it just a coincidence that Landis got stronger, and his crit raised. And Wiggins crit was maintained for the first two weeks, and hemoglobin went up?

Why can riders' remarkably manipulate their blood parameters for the second and third weeks of GT's and these correspond to their improved performances. Riders whose crit drops, fall like a stone off the GT classement.

Years when they perform average, like Rasmussen, their crit plays different games.

It defies credible belief, that riders crit and bloodwork, just happens to do things beneficial for performance, during the second and third week of a July GT. And this also ignores, their starting crit and start volume.

 

[Race Radio]

There is also the unexplainable issue of Armstrong's new blood cell production dropping to the lowest level of the year....at the same time his Hct reaches close to it's highest. Sounds like a nice bag of blood on the rest day.

 

[stephens]

That's exactly the kind of analysis that I no longer can take seriously because I've had dozens of blood tests and things never matched up the way I expected from reading this forum. When we don't have a constant stream of data, and are instead dealing with just snapshots in time, tests from weeks apart, I don't think we can draw such conclusions about what value A should be when value B is at a certain level.

 

[BroDeal]

That's exactly the kind of analysis that I no longer can take seriously because I've had dozens of blood tests and things never matched up the way I expected from reading this forum. When we don't have a constant stream of data, and are instead dealing with just snapshots in time, tests from weeks apart, I don't think we can draw such conclusions about what value A should be when value B is at a certain level.

Did your hematocrit and hemoglobin go up while your reticulocytes went down? That is the problem with Armstrong's values. The amount of red blood cells in his body went up at the same time his production of red blood cells went radically down.. That is a contradiction. Extra red blood cells don;t just show up by magic. They have to first go through the reticulocyte stage.

A glance at the graph of Armstrong's blood values posted above by poupou shows two visually distinct populations, values during the Tour and values outside the Tour.

 

[stephens]

Did your hematocrit and hemoglobin go up while your reticulocytes went down?

We don't know that about me or Armstrong. All we can see from the data is that the hematocrit was at a higher level than it was at a previous test. We can't see if the reticulocytes came up between the two tests and naturally boosted hematocrit and then went back to normal or even decreased levels. Depending on the timing of that, it's easy to imagine (and see in my case) higher hematocrit numbers than before, while never catching a test that showed higher reticulocyte numbers. (mine were 1.04 on the .70 to 2.4% normal scale, or in absolute test .004 mu/l on the .025 to .115 normal scale: but nevertheless hematocrit rose back up to 39 with hemaglobin at 13.9)

That's why I said that unless we have very frequent tests, we simply can't make conclusions about trends in different blood values and say things like hemaglobin went up without reticulocytes going up. Maybe we just didn't test when the retic counts were up. Then later we test and we get the result (higher hematocrit) but missed the cause of it.

 

[frenchfry]

That of course is a very good point. And it allows us to suspect odd numbers in pro athletes. But I'm still bothered by anything that is so open to interpretation and in fact requires interpretation. We shouldn't be trying to connect the dots. We should have rules that can be enforced very directly and scientifically. Fail the test, you're out.

The fact that such tests don't currently exist for the rules people wish to enforce doesn't point to a failure of tests, it points to an inappropriate rule. Rules must be about things that can be known concretely.

And I still say all such penalties should be from within the sport, not criminal. Ban the rider, take back prizes and redistribute them etc. But to have the governments get involved? Crazy. What's next, criminal charges against Thierry Henry for his recent handball goal and not fessing up to it immediately? Think of all the glory he robbed from the Irish! Throw him in prison!

It seems to me that you contradict yourself. You say rules should be clear and direct, yet when a blood bag of an athlete is found at a doping facilitator's clinic you don't agree that this should be used to prosecute even though there can be no doubt as to the ownership.

In any case, it isn't the sport that decides if the criminal prosecutor gets involved - its the laws of the country that hosts a sporting event. Comparing a hand in soccer to importing and using forbidden doping substances is ridiculous.

 

[Cerberus]

We don't know that about me or Armstrong. All we can see from the data is that the hematocrit was at a higher level than it was at a previous test. We can't see if the reticulocytes came up between the two tests and naturally boosted hematocrit and then went back to normal or even decreased levels. Depending on the timing of that, it's easy to imagine (and see in my case) higher hematocrit numbers than before, while never catching a test that showed higher reticulocyte numbers. (mine were 1.04 on the .70 to 2.4% normal scale, or in absolute test .004 mu/l on the .025 to .115 normal scale: but nevertheless hematocrit rose back up to 39 with hemaglobin at 13.9)

That's why I said that unless we have very frequent tests, we simply can't make conclusions about trends in different blood values and say things like hemaglobin went up without reticulocytes going up. Maybe we just didn't test when the retic counts were up. Then later we test and we get the result (higher hematocrit) but missed the cause of it.

How frequently were you tested? Armstrong was tested several times a week during the Tour. Perhaps reticulate count can increase and fall again that fast naturally, I don't know, but it is as a minimum highly unlikely.
On a related note I heard the suggestion once, that one way of limiting the doping problem would be to lower both penalties and the burden of proof. You keep the current system in place where a positive give a 2 year ban but you add another system where highly suspicious values give perhaps a 2 week ban. The advantage is that you'd catch far more cheaters and while you would unfairly penalize some innocents the penalty is relatively light. Sure a 2 week ban would suck, but it wouldn't suck nearly as much never winning a race because the competition is juiced, and there's not much point in doping if getting a blood transfusion would get you kicked out of the race you were doping to win. Of cause it might still be possible to dope below the new threshold values, but the bar would be set lower thus giving clean riders a better chance.

 

[poupou]

BTW, when I said the changes in my hematocrit were without the usual predicted changes, I meant in other blood values. What was for sure was that when numbers were low, I was really down on energy and could hardly ride the damn bike. Heart rate was elevated, etc. When they came back up to 38 or 39 level, I could kind of ride now. I'm still basically starting over as far as fitness goes, but at least it's fun again.

I'm a real believer in the power of red blood cell, ha!

Stephens, you are probably not in the population of top elite athletes,
you were not stressing your body during a 21 day long event, ...

There is no reason to compare the hematocrit variations of my grandmother, a 5 year old kid or a pregnant woman and world athletes.

Lausanne lab has collected for 3 years blood of athletes so they have a better pictures of what can be blood variation of top athletes. Their problem is to eliminate the doping variation within their database.

 

[RTMcFadden]

Stephens, you are probably not in the population of top elite athletes,
you were not stressing your body during a 21 day long event, ...

There is no reason to compare the hematocrit variations of my grandmother, a 5 year old kid or a pregnant woman and world athletes.

Lausanne lab has collected for 3 years blood of athletes so they have a better pictures of what can be blood variation of top athletes. Their problem is to eliminate the doping variation within their database.

While I agree this is a start, there are other factors (stressors) that need to be accounted for. Among them are all of the "suppliments" that are being taken. As well as possible interactions of bacteria and viruses. I just don't think there is enough control over the subjects and their environments to really provide an accurate picture based upon the population and the timeframe.

Also, why does it have to be limited to elite athletes. Children and old ladies should at least be able to provide some sort of baseline for normal and some types of abnormal physiology.

 

[L29205]

I think you were saying that just because an individual with some unexplained health problems has some test numbers that defy known parameters, that doesn't make it a good explanation for odd test results in a healthy top level athlete. Or maybe I missed the point?

Correct, I have a tendency to to get wrapped up in my posts and forget to make a firm point on what I am trying to express.

 

[dopingectomy]

Some elements for making your mind :

very interesting, but how reliable are these data?