Now I'm an old coot who is perfectly clear on the bad things Mr Armstrong did to our sport. Yes fans, he did the sport real damage and that is without him being guilty (or not) of doping. The Bassons/Simeoni incidents are extremely akward.
But.. there are a few things that actually would favor a "Lance is back" outlook. From a top ten Giro rider (he got twelth, but he was there all the time) he manages now to be ex-aequo for Yellow. Now that can be luck/experience, whatever, but you got to have the legs to proof that.
The Spartacus argument is disengenious. A few examples why it doesn't stick:
- I saw Cav leading his team over the line as well, will he drop Lance in the mountains?
- Cadel pulled his team to pieces in the end, will he drop lance in the mountains?
- AC didn't do long pulls, so he looses out to Spartacus as well?
- The Schlecks should now be relegated to domestique duties?
TFF, I generally agree with you and respect you, but this is quite simply not correct. You can not completely compare Spartacus (the world #1 TT specialist) against Lance, because quite frankly if you follow this reasoning to the logical conclusion Spartacus will win the TdF.. and that is at least a year to early imho.
Then on form.. if Lance is tapering (which he almost certainly is) his performance in the Giro can be seen as a step up towards the TdF. A month of to recuperate, wich could generate "supercompensation" due to him being relatively undertrained. Even without dope (and who believes there is no dope is a tool) this can foreseeable give us a stronger Lance than in the Giro. Given that differences at this level are relatively low that could indicate that Lance is not just a pushover. Note that he seems to have a consistent higher level than in the Giro.. anyones guess if that also translates to his climbing, but it seems reasonably likely that he will not "drop as a fly".
As you said Friday will show it for sure, and I still count on AC, but poohpoohing Lance is tricky.
This is conjecture, but I had to play the devils advocate here as I disagree with some of you thought-trains^^
Oh and Byu, nice of you to defend our incumbent marine, but it's not very likable to say you destroy people, I doubt that it's a motto of the US Army (Didn't they want to help the Iraqis). It's also not very agreeable with some scripture parts, but who am I...