Le Tour 2010

[Ferminal]

We all know who comes first, but it should be a great battle for 2nd place out of Menchov, Schleck, Valverde (if racing). Even Sanchez might be a chance.

 

[kurtinsc]

I'd say the young guys in your last group will be improved this year, and thus ahead of Lance..

We'll see. The fact of the matter was that Lance did outclimb the guys who were still around in the mountains last year (perhaps being even with Nibali).

I still maintain with Lance it will depend on how he rides.

If he tries to win... he'll be 7th or worse at the end.

If he tries to race for 3rd... he might be able to pull it off. He needs to ride defensively like he did last year... letting Contador, Schleck and whoever goes with them go ahead and let others kill themselves chasing as he hangs back and conserves energy sucking their wheels.

Then if they go red line... he can place a small attack to take some time... kind of like he did with Wiggins and Nibali on Grand Bornand (though Nibali rejoined on the descent).

He simply can't go with Contador, Andy Schleck, or Frank on the days that he's "on" in the mountains. If he tries... he's done. He can get a podium... but he has to race for 3rd, not 1st.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Bit premature, but does anyone see a team beating out Radio Shack for the Yellow Jersey.
3 GT contenders and an entourage of savvy mountain goats (Popo, Horner, Chechu, Zubeldia, Machado, Brajkovic) to boot plus good train strength (Steegmans, Rast & Vaitkus). Probably the biggest question is who will sit out there so deep.

I haven't really looked at the course but I agree with your prediction, in fact I would be shocked if it did not happen.

Has anyone got the route map & profile and team lists to the Tour of Gila?

 

[Merckx]

Haven't been following stuff for a while...

Anyway, I'm guessing that stage 3 from Wanze to Arenberg will be the one featuring cobbled sections. At 207 KM in length (but only 14k of cobbled sections) could a Cancellara type rider put in a similar performance to the one he did in RVV/P-R and get 6-7 minutes on the pack? Would he be able to hold on to a lead like that in the mountains?

 

[Andrichuk]

Haven't been following stuff for a while...

Anyway, I'm guessing that stage 3 from Wanze to Arenberg will be the one featuring cobbled sections. At 207 KM in length (but only 14k of cobbled sections) could a Cancellara type rider put in a similar performance to the one he did in RVV/P-R and get 6-7 minutes on the pack? Would he be able to hold on to a lead like that in the mountains?

No, Cancellara could hold that gap for 2 days of climbing at most. Anyways Riis (and AC) have different plans for Cancellara anyways. He will pull the Schlecks through that section to keep them out of trouble.

 

[kurtinsc]

No, Cancellara could hold that gap for 2 days of climbing at most. Anyways Riis (and AC) have different plans for Cancellara anyways. He will pull the Schlecks through that section to keep them out of trouble.

Couldn't he use Breschel for that instead if he chose, and let Cancellera get the leaders Jersey for a spell? Or would he rather not have the responsability like last year?

 

[flicker]

Contador made enemies last year. A strong team or a group of strong teams could defeat him. I hear an American team United Healthcare is in the running as a wildcard team. I hear they have a proven enforcer Jason Koegh....the human bowlingball....

 

[Clemson Cycling]

Liquigas is going to have some cards to play as well. It is going to be a crazy Tour and Contador and Astana are going to have to try to keep things together. I wonder what kind of shape Mr. Armstrong is going to show up in. How many people saw him finishing in the top three last year and he is going to have all the help that his Radioshack money could buy. I don't think Wiggo is going to be able to do anything.

To make the conspiracy theorists happy (since there are a lot on this forum), Johan could tell the Tour what makes Contador so good.

 

[theswordsman]

I haven't really looked at the course but I agree with your prediction, in fact I would be shocked if it did not happen.

Has anyone got the route map & profile and team lists to the Tour of Gila?

Excellent

 

[movingtarget]

Tour 2010

Should be a more entertaining race than last year's. Radio Shack will try every trick in the book. Expect to see some strange tactics. Could work to the advantage of riders like Evans, Menchov and Sastre with CSC, Radio Shack and Astana going head to head. But it is still hard to see Contador losing especially with his improvement as a time triallist.

 

[thehog]

Should be a more entertaining race than last year's. Radio Shack will try every trick in the book. Expect to see some strange tactics. Could work to the advantage of riders like Evans, Menchov and Sastre with CSC, Radio Shack and Astana going head to head. But it is still hard to see Contador losing especially with his improvement as a time triallist.

Radioshack won't try anything.

The only way they can even get close to beating Contador is by doing nothing. The only way to win would be "sucker punching" Contador into blowing himself up. Its the only way. They would want a chaotic peloton not an organised one. Organised bunch favours Contador. Besides I don't think Radioshack will figure much as they really don't have a team as strong as Astana, Saxo and half a dozen other teams for that matter. Kloden is a solid tempo rider but not strong. Levi is a "hanger" on mountain stages but cannot control 21-day race and Horner just hangs about with Top 10 finishes. Thats not a team that can win. Saddle that with Astana and you have a great mix of flat-stage riders, mountain climbers and solid team-guys. Its a wining combination. I really can't see how they can get beaten. Saxo is the only team with a stronger army. Think about it.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Radioshack won't try anything.

The only way they can even get close to beating Contador is by doing nothing. The only way to win would be "sucker punching" Contador into blowing himself up. Its the only way. They would want a chaotic peloton not an organised one. Organised bunch favours Contador. Besides I don't think Radioshack will figure much as they really don't have a team as strong as Astana, Saxo and half a dozen other teams for that matter. Kloden is a solid tempo rider but not strong. Levi is a "hanger" on mountain stages but cannot control 21-day race and Horner just hangs about with Top 10 finishes. Thats not a team that can win. Saddle that with Astana and you have a great mix of flat-stage riders, mountain climbers and solid team-guys. Its a wining combination. I really can't see how they can get beaten. Saxo is the only team with a stronger army. Think about it.

They shoud send leipheimer up the road early on a mountain stage and put the pressure on him and try to work him over.

 

[kurtinsc]

Radioshack won't try anything.

The only way they can even get close to beating Contador is by doing nothing. The only way to win would be "sucker punching" Contador into blowing himself up. Its the only way. They would want a chaotic peloton not an organised one. Organised bunch favours Contador. Besides I don't think Radioshack will figure much as they really don't have a team as strong as Astana, Saxo and half a dozen other teams for that matter. Kloden is a solid tempo rider but not strong. Levi is a "hanger" on mountain stages but cannot control 21-day race and Horner just hangs about with Top 10 finishes. Thats not a team that can win. Saddle that with Astana and you have a great mix of flat-stage riders, mountain climbers and solid team-guys. Its a wining combination. I really can't see how they can get beaten. Saxo is the only team with a stronger army. Think about it.

Are you really saying Astana will have the second strongest team?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Are you really saying Astana will have the second strongest team?

Not including the two leaders it is,

RS: Leipheimer, Kloden, Horner, Brajkovic, Zubeldia, popovych
Astana: De la fuente, henandez, vinokourov, tirallongo, pereiro amd navarro.

no match imo

 

[issoisso]

They shoud send leipheimer up the road early on a mountain stage and put the pressure on him and try to work him over.

It's Bruyneel. His tactics have zero imagination. He's been in that situation before enough times for us to know he won't try anything but having his riders follow wheels and get the best GC spot they can.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It's Bruyneel. His tactics have zero imagination. He's been in that situation before enough times for us to know he won't try anything but having his riders follow wheels and get the best GC spot they can.

That makes him a tool then and not a mastermind like we have all been led to believe.

 

[mr. tibbs]

My top three are:

Kid Contador
A Schleck
Somebody in Green

Depending on the green team's climbing this year, they may get number two. I really like Nibali's chances--at least, if he continues to develop on the same trajectory as last year.

 

[issoisso]

That makes him a tool then and not a mastermind like we have all been led to believe.

Now think.
Who led you to believe that?

Exactly.

 

[thehog]

Are you really saying Astana will have the second strongest team?

Yes I am. As a fully formed cohesive team yes they are by far the 2nd strongest to Saxo. Rider for rider other teams may have won more races over the years but thats not what counts. 2nd best team is Astana.

If you are the best rider in the peloton and you could choose the 8 riders of your choice to be in your team who would you choose? You wouldn't pick the top 8 riders by results. You'd pick a team that compliments you, compliments the terrain and have the right mix of personalities to work together. Its simple. All sports teams work like that.

Radioshack is not a cohesive team. Have they even been in the same room let alone same country at any one time this year? Bond is not built through words but through actions.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Now think.
Who led you to believe that?

Exactly.

Well PS and PL plus all of his riders and riders on other team have commented on him being a tatical genius.

 

[issoisso]

Well PS and PL plus all of his riders and riders on other team have commented on him being a tatical genius.

Thus proving my point

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd argue that, were Valverde to be racing (he won't be, regardless) then Caisse would have to be considered one of the strongest teams.

Liquigas are stronger than the Shack. Definitely.

Saxo will be. They're as well-drilled as the Shack, and contend over a far wider set of bases. They won't put as many people in the top 10 (or actually they probably will - 2) but they will provide a better base.

Astana have 3 GT winners, a GT top 10 in Tiralongo, a 2x KOM holder in de la Fuente, two riders who've gone top-15 in the Vuelta recently in Navarro and Hernández, Iglinskiy was the last domestique to leave Conti's side in the 2008 Giro and has been up there in Classics and Tirreno-Adriatico this year...

They simply aren't a weak team regardless of what you may have been told.

As for the idea of Levi Leipheimer, of all people, going on solo breaks to put pressure on Contador, well, there's a pretty huge gap between what should happen and what will. What should happen is that old man Leipy loses six minutes in the time trials like he did a few years ago.

 

[scribe]

Well I'm psyched. Gonna go and get me some electric appliances from my nearest RetirementShack outlet in Belgium. Support the cause!

Nice chop! haha

I'd add Rogain and hair club for men to the list of sponsors.

 

[MrContador]

My top three are:

Kid Contador
A Schleck
Somebody in Green

Cavendish for the podium!

 

[Publicus]

Not including the two leaders it is,

RS: Leipheimer, Kloden, Horner, Brajkovic, Zubeldia, popovych
Astana: De la fuente, henandez, vinokourov, tirallongo, pereiro amd navarro.

no match imo

Hernandez won't be making the TdF team. Let's be honest, he is to AC what Scott Davis is to Allan Davis. He's at best his homeboy with a paycheck, but he's not figured at the end of any stage race he's ever ridden and they can't afford to bring along AC's buddy.

Assuming 9 man roster at the Tour, (I'm pretty confident that the following 7, barring injury, are guaranteed to line up in July):

1. AC
2. Vino
3. Navarro
4. Pereiro
5. Fofonov
6. Grivko
7. Noval
8. Jufre/Tiralongo/DDLF
9. Gurov/Stangelj

And I think, from a name stand point, Radio Shack has Astana beat in spades. But names/reputations, in and of themselves, don't make a team strong. And to me, team strength doesn't mean as much if your GC candidate isn't on par with the other GC candidates and there is no TTT.

Viewed from that perspective, Radio Shack isn't the strongest GC team. I would rank them as follows: (1) Saxo Bank, (2) Astana (3) Liquigas (4) Caisse (5) Rabobank, (6) Radio Shack.

I could see an argument for moving Rabobank higher (Gesink and Menchov should be a pretty damn good duo). And my Caisse ranking is presuming that Valverde will be at the Tour.