Le Tour 2010

[kurtinsc]

Yes I am. As a fully formed cohesive team yes they are by far the 2nd strongest to Saxo. Rider for rider other teams may have won more races over the years but thats not what counts. 2nd best team is Astana.

If you are the best rider in the peloton and you could choose the 8 riders of your choice to be in your team who would you choose? You wouldn't pick the top 8 riders by results. You'd pick a team that compliments you, compliments the terrain and have the right mix of personalities to work together. Its simple. All sports teams work like that.

Radioshack is not a cohesive team. Have they even been in the same room let alone same country at any one time this year? Bond is not built through words but through actions.

I'm not really pointing to Radioshack here. I just don't see Astana ahead of say... Liquigas. Perhaps not ahead of Caisse either if Valverde rides. I put their strength closer to Sky or Garmin if they chose to go "ALL GC" instead of supporting a sprinter too. Even with the sprinters I'm not 100% sure Astana is better.

Bringing up Radioshack always causes people to throw a bit of reason out of the window. People tend to have either very positive or very negative reactions to Lance... and that carries over to the team.

So leaving them out... you really think Astana is ahead of the other teams? Right now when selections get made in the mountains and the pelaton shrinks to 20 or so riders... I can't see more then one Astana rider aside from Contador being present... and I'm not 100% sure Vino will be there. Gesink and Menchov will probably be there for Rabo. As many of the "big 4" who ride for Liquigas will be there (Pelizotti, Basso, Kreuziger, Nibali). The Schlecks will be there along with possibly Fuglsang and Sorensen. Evans will be there alone. Wiggins with maybe Lovkvist. Vandevelde and maybe another Garmin rider like Danielson if he rides.

I'm not saying Astana will be weak... but 2nd strongest seems like a really big reach.

 

[scribe]

Cavendish for the podium!

I read it like that too for a bit. I actually started to ponder the possibility. haha

 

[joy118118]

Assuming 9 man roster at the Tour, (I'm pretty confident that the following 7, barring injury, are guaranteed to line up in July):

1. AC
2. Vino
3. Navarro
4. Pereiro
5. Fofonov
6. Grivko
7. Noval
8. Jufre/Tiralongo/DDLF
9. Gurov/Stangelj

I think Iglinskiy should on the list. He is out of Giro and his form is such good that there is no reason for him missing both Giro and Tour. And he is kazakh.

 

[kurtinsc]

Hernandez won't be making the TdF team. Let's be honest, he is to AC what Scott Davis is to Allan Davis. He's at best his homeboy with a paycheck, but he's not figured at the end of any stage race he's ever ridden and they can't afford to bring along AC's buddy.

Assuming 9 man roster at the Tour, (I'm pretty confident that the following 7, barring injury, are guaranteed to line up in July):

1. AC
2. Vino
3. Navarro
4. Pereiro
5. Fofonov
6. Grivko
7. Noval
8. Jufre/Tiralongo/DDLF
9. Gurov/Stangelj

And I think, from a name stand point, Radio Shack has Astana beat in spades. But names/reputations, in and of themselves, don't make a team strong. And to me, team strength doesn't mean as much if your GC candidate isn't on par with the other GC candidates and there is no TTT.

Viewed from that perspective, Radio Shack isn't the strongest GC team. I would rank them as follows: (1) Saxo Bank, (2) Astana (3) Liquigas (4) Caisse (5) Rabobank, (6) Radio Shack.

I could see an argument for moving Rabobank higher (Gesink and Menchov should be a pretty damn good duo). And my Caisse ranking is presuming that Valverde will be at the Tour.

For me, when we are talking about "best team" I'm thinking more of the other 8 besides the leader. More along the lines of "which leader's team can support him best"?

So if you take whoever you view as the top GC guy out for each team and replace them with Contador... how would you rank them based on support in the GC?

 

[Publicus]

I think Iglinskiy should on the list. He is out of Giro and his form is such good that there is no reason for him missing both Giro and Tour. And he is kazakh.

Yeah that was a total oversight on my part.

 

[Publicus]

For me, when we are talking about "best team" I'm thinking more of the other 8 besides the leader. More along the lines of "which leader's team can support him best"?

So if you take whoever you view as the top GC guy out for each team and replace them with Contador... how would you rank them based on support in the GC?

Interesting. At first I was going to say the same, but I'm just slotting AC into these existing teams minus their current GC, off the top of my head, I'd say:

1. Astana
2. Caisse
3. Garmin
4. Rabobank
5. Katusha
6. Cofidis

Saxo Bank: the Brothers Schleck would fall apart without each other. I just don't see Frank really riding for AC. He'd do it, but he wouldn't do it well and that significantly downgrades the value of the team.

Liquigas: If you think they have leadership issues now, drop AC into the mix.

Radio Shack: He's not riding for Bruyneel ever again.

Chemistry is a big part of team sports.

 

[kurtinsc]

Interesting. At first I was going to say the same, but I'm just slotting AC into these existing teams minus their current GC, off the top of my head, I'd say:

1. Astana
2. Caisse
3. Garmin
4. Rabobank
5. Katusha
6. Cofidis

Saxo Bank: the Brothers Schleck would fall apart without each other. I just don't see Frank really riding for AC. He'd do it, but he wouldn't do it well and that significantly downgrades the value of the team.

Liquigas: If you think they have leadership issues now, drop AC into the mix.

Radio Shack: He's not riding for Bruyneel ever again.

Chemistry is a big part of team sports.

I used AC as an example... but I didn't mean him specifically. Let's say take the top GC rider for each team off and put... Miguel Indurain or Eddie Mercx or Greg Lemond on the team in their prime.

Who the rider is doesn't matter... I'm asking which team is capable of the best support more generically. I understand chemistry does matter... but I don't believe any of us are really capable of judging that. Now I do think we can guess that certain riders aren't going to work for ANYONE... so I think taking that into account is fair. But judging RS's ability to support because "contador won't work for Bruyneel" or judging Saxo's ability based on "Frank will fall apart without Andy" isn't really material to how good a job of support they will do. I just want to take out the thought that Astana will be able to support Contador better because Contador is the best rider in cycling. Yes... he is the best... and he'll probably win regardless of how well Astana supports him... but Contador's ability shouldn't really factor in on how good a support job the rest of the team can do in comparison to the other teams.

 

[thehog]

I'm not really pointing to Radioshack here. I just don't see Astana ahead of say... Liquigas. Perhaps not ahead of Caisse either if Valverde rides. I put their strength closer to Sky or Garmin if they chose to go "ALL GC" instead of supporting a sprinter too. Even with the sprinters I'm not 100% sure Astana is better.

Bringing up Radioshack always causes people to throw a bit of reason out of the window. People tend to have either very positive or very negative reactions to Lance... and that carries over to the team.

So leaving them out... you really think Astana is ahead of the other teams? Right now when selections get made in the mountains and the pelaton shrinks to 20 or so riders... I can't see more then one Astana rider aside from Contador being present... and I'm not 100% sure Vino will be there. Gesink and Menchov will probably be there for Rabo. As many of the "big 4" who ride for Liquigas will be there (Pelizotti, Basso, Kreuziger, Nibali). The Schlecks will be there along with possibly Fuglsang and Sorensen. Evans will be there alone. Wiggins with maybe Lovkvist. Vandevelde and maybe another Garmin rider like Danielson if he rides.

I'm not saying Astana will be weak... but 2nd strongest seems like a really big reach.

I think part of the problem is a lot of you guys were conditioned and brought up on the USPS/Disco days of cycling which in the most part "not real". You seem to think one team riding on the front of the peloton at record speeds breaking the legs of everyone day after day is the symbol of a strong team. Believe me before 2000 this is not how teams would ride. They couldn't. Its not possible.

A strong team doesn't ride on the front of the peloton for 5 hours straight. They do many many different things. I think its important that you guys learn this. Bar Floyd Landis the 2006 Tour is wonderful example of how races used to be like. 2008 and the way CSC rode is another example. They never controlled the entire race but at times they were able to come to the front and put the pressure on.

To the question at hand. Astana have a very strong team. They have riders for all occasions. And yes I think they're the 2nd best team. I've been watching the team all year and they are super motivated. They all want to be on the Tour team and they all want their leader to win. That is in stark contract to many other teams this year Radioshack included. I restate; Has their Tour team even been in the same country at one time this year? Lance hasn't even ridden with the team. They must wonder what they are training for.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Not including the two leaders it is,

RS: Leipheimer, Kloden, Horner, Brajkovic, Zubeldia, popovych
Astana: De la fuente, henandez, vinokourov, tirallongo, pereiro amd navarro.

no match imo

caisse ???

 

[bianchigirl]

Hog, an excellent post

 

[Publicus]

I used AC as an example... but I didn't mean him specifically. Let's say take the top GC rider for each team off and put... Miguel Indurain or Eddie Mercx or Greg Lemond on the team in their prime.

Who the rider is doesn't matter... I'm asking which team is capable of the best support more generically. I understand chemistry does matter... but I don't believe any of us are really capable of judging that. Now I do think we can guess that certain riders aren't going to work for ANYONE... so I think taking that into account is fair. But judging RS's ability to support because "contador won't work for Bruyneel" or judging Saxo's ability based on "Frank will fall apart without Andy" isn't really material to how good a job of support they will do. I just want to take out the thought that Astana will be able to support Contador better because Contador is the best rider in cycling. Yes... he is the best... and he'll probably win regardless of how well Astana supports him... but Contador's ability shouldn't really factor in on how good a support job the rest of the team can do in comparison to the other teams.

This is where we disagree. I think this stuff DOES matter. These are not automatons that you simply slot into place. They are humans. So Popo works GREAT for Bruyneel/Armstrong teams, not so much on others. Andy and Frank very well together; don't know if they have the same motivation to work for someone else especially if that means that one of the brothers is gone.

In short, you seem to want to dismiss the intangibles which are a critical part of a rider's WILLINGNESS and MOTIVATION to work for/support the designated leader. Trying to see how Andy would work with the Radio Shack squad is an exercise in futility, since Andy wouldn't ride without Frank. Or even if he did, he wouldn't be as motivated. Or having Gesink ride for Astana. Do you really think Vino hands over the reins to Gesink? I don't.

Each GC candidate needs a different mix of talent to be successful. What AC needs to be successful is going to be different than what Nibali will need to be successful.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I used AC as an example... but I didn't mean him specifically. Let's say take the top GC rider for each team off and put... Miguel Indurain or Eddie Mercx or Greg Lemond on the team in their prime.

If you're going to plop Miguel Indurain into some of the current teams to say who's strongest then Caisse (Banesto!) and Euskaltel (national pride) suddenly get much stronger because of team chemistry and will to do the work.

Hell, Caisse have a rider (José Vicente García Acosta) who domestiqued for Indurain back in the mid-90s and an enormous level of continuity that helps make them a stronger team in practice than they are on paper. Christian Meier tweeted of 'Chente' recently: "Got to ride on the front today chasing the break with "Cente"(Vicente Garcia Acosta), one of the most respested domestiques out there. He is a legend and it made my day, mad respect for that guy, if someday I can become half the domestique that guy is I will be happy." That's respect right there. It's not what we know them for, it's what the guys in the péloton know them for. Sure more people can name the Shack's super-domestiques than can remember the names of the various domestiques doing the donkey work for other teams (there are a few exceptions, such as Jens Voigt or Sylwester Szmyd) but it's continuity and the less glamorous worker ants that glue the team together.

 

[karlboss]

For 2nd strongest team you need 2 riders in the heads of state group and I'm not sure vino is up to the task. Astana is definitely strong, just not 2nd. It probably won't be important as the attack that will need to be followed is likely Contador's and if not I suspect he can jump onto the wheel. However if does have an off day and appears mortal, the 2nd strongest team would still have one teammate climbing in the top 10 to help him over the line. If Vino is climbing that well, they could well be 2nd strongest. As for radioshack given their performance last year I don't think they'll have trouble coming together and they dumped the most disruptive part, unfortunately that was also the winning part. There is time before July for them to ride together, notably california, dauphine, and suisse. They do seem to lack the flatland powerhouses but they'll be fine. Now if only they can race positively instead of following wheels they might even look strong. For me the Tour will gain loads if radioshack and liquigas ride to win not only get on the podium.

 

[wattage]

I just hope that we will see someone else winning than AC. Nothing against the guy, I actually like the way he races, but I would like to see someone else winning The Tour than just the same guy over and over again.

 

[UpTheRoad]

They shoud send leipheimer up the road early on a mountain stage and put the pressure on him and try to work him over.

There's a big problem with that scenario. If Leipheimer goes up the road, Astana need not chase. All they have to do is sit and wait until Lance can't take it any longer and RS starts pulling. Lance will be a teammate only up to a point.

 

[Publicus]

For 2nd strongest team you need 2 riders in the heads of state group and I'm not sure vino is up to the task. Astana is definitely strong, just not 2nd. It probably won't be important as the attack that will need to be followed is likely Contador's and if not I suspect he can jump onto the wheel. However if does have an off day and appears mortal, the 2nd strongest team would still have one teammate climbing in the top 10 to help him over the line. If Vino is climbing that well, they could well be 2nd strongest. As for radioshack given their performance last year I don't think they'll have trouble coming together and they dumped the most disruptive part, unfortunately that was also the winning part. There is time before July for them to ride together, notably california, dauphine, and suisse. They do seem to lack the flatland powerhouses but they'll be fine. Now if only they can race positively instead of following wheels they might even look strong. For me the Tour will gain loads if radioshack and liquigas ride to win not only get on the podium.

they kept the most disruptive part (Armstrong) and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Armstrong won't be in France in June.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

they kept the most disruptive part (Armstrong) and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Armstrong won't be in France in June.

Bold statement.

Personally, I'd like Armstrong to race the TDF this year and see if his performance matches his mouth. I'd like to see the showdown with Contador and the others once and for all. If he doesn't show up, he'll always play the "I could have won the TDF 2010 had I not been <fill in the blank>".

 

[karlboss]

they kept the most disruptive part (Armstrong) and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Armstrong won't be in France in June.

The disruptive part was having Armstrong and Contador, remove either and all is fine.

 

[Publicus]

Bold statement.

Personally, I'd like Armstrong to race the TDF this year and see if his performance matches his mouth. I'd like to see the showdown with Contador and the others once and for all. If he doesn't show up, he'll always play the "I could have won the TDF 2010 had I not been <fill in the blank>".

He'll be in France in July. He won't be anywhere near France in June for the Dauphine. He'll opt for the Tour de Suisse. No way he races AC up Alpe D'Huez. No way.

 

[Publicus]

The disruptive part was having Armstrong and Contador, remove either and all is fine.

The disruption was Armstrong's--it's silly to try and argue the point. Of course removing one of them ended the disruption, but that does mean both were disruptive.

 

[Inner Peace]

Armstrong said in The Science of Lance Armstrong:

"I don't wanna know what second place feels like"

He can't beat Contador, he doesn't want to know what second place feels like ( ) so he will let Andy Schleck get second (to recruit them later).

He will battle for third against the likes of Evans and Frank Schleck.

In all honesty tho, if the 45 yr old gets a 3rd place it's still a pretty good effort against the best stage racer of this generation...

I can't see him getting past Contador, Schlecks and Evans really, so perhaps he could settle for 5th... Radioshack are strong, but not like Astana last year. They can't possibly go 1-2-3 without some serious help or some serious sabotage of other teams...

 

[karlboss]

The disruption was Armstrong's--it's silly to try and argue the point. Of course removing one of them ended the disruption, but that does mean both were disruptive.

There wouldn't have been any disruption if Contador followed team orders now would there?

Is this what trolling feels like?

Back on topic...I think we see that if Astana is given the task of controlling the race like Paris-Nice they may fail, but like Paris-Nice other teams are likely to help. I can actually see alliances being formed, Saxo and Astana and Liqui and Shack. Saxo rode with plenty of confidence last year, and I think will again as will Astana. Both will try to keep the race together for Andy and Alberto respectively to do what they do best on the mountain top finishes. Anyone else looking to win will probably have to take a huge risk.

 

[kurtinsc]

This is where we disagree. I think this stuff DOES matter. These are not automatons that you simply slot into place. They are humans. So Popo works GREAT for Bruyneel/Armstrong teams, not so much on others. Andy and Frank very well together; don't know if they have the same motivation to work for someone else especially if that means that one of the brothers is gone.

In short, you seem to want to dismiss the intangibles which are a critical part of a rider's WILLINGNESS and MOTIVATION to work for/support the designated leader. Trying to see how Andy would work with the Radio Shack squad is an exercise in futility, since Andy wouldn't ride without Frank. Or even if he did, he wouldn't be as motivated. Or having Gesink ride for Astana. Do you really think Vino hands over the reins to Gesink? I don't.

Each GC candidate needs a different mix of talent to be successful. What AC needs to be successful is going to be different than what Nibali will need to be successful.

Okay... let's change this. I don't think I'm getting across what I'm trying to ask.


Assume that the top GC rider for each team has the same ability... they're all clones of Lemond or Mercxx or whoever.

But they all have the same relationships they currently do with their teams. There's no worry about splitting Andy and Frank... Andy's just a clone of Contador. Armstrong is now a lot younger and fitter... but he's still the "boss" of the RS team like he is now. Menchov is still his stoic self... just with Contador's acceleration.

Which team would be able to support their Contador clone best.

 

[movingtarget]

Tour 2010

I agree that Astana are a well balanced team but I don't think Armstrong and Bruyneel will have any trouble motivating their team. Lot's of experience and talent in the Radio Shack team. I don't think the Bruyneel factor should be underestimated. I really don't think Radio Shack will sit back. That is a negative tactic that will never defeat Contador. They will have to sacrifice Kloden and Leipheimer. Riders that could be dangerous if they get a few minutes ahead on GC. Contador deserves to be the favourite to win but it still should be an interesting race.

 

[franciep10]

Okay... let's change this. I don't think I'm getting across what I'm trying to ask.


Assume that the top GC rider for each team has the same ability... they're all clones of Lemond or Mercxx or whoever.

But they all have the same relationships they currently do with their teams. There's no worry about splitting Andy and Frank... Andy's just a clone of Contador. Armstrong is now a lot younger and fitter... but he's still the "boss" of the RS team like he is now. Menchov is still his stoic self... just with Contador's acceleration.

Which team would be able to support their Contador clone best.

Caisse no doubt about it astana is in the top 5 IMO