Le Tour 2010

[kurtinsc]

Rabobank dont even deserve a mention?

I can't blame you, they've had an incredibly shitty April. But they still have Menchov and Gesink (provided they stay on their bikes), who both did good things at the two non-Tour GTs last year... Garate, Boom and Martens to support... That's pretty strong still.... On paper at least

Oops... just missed them as I went down the list of entrants.

My bad.

 

[xmoonx]

I think Alberto is in trouble of being isolated big time this year. Last year he had Armstrong and Kloden who while not riding for him per say were still interested in podium finishes and thus the ´team´ was somewhat supportive of him. This year given his clear favouritism I can not see him getting any help from other teams. As previously elaborated on, Liquigas, Radioshack, Rabo, Caisse, Saxo... have at least 2 very strong GC - top 5 contenders. Alberto may well be forced too chase down all of them.

Those who keep dropping KOM jerseys for a few days and Vuelta top 10´s in GC as evidence for Astana´s strength are cracking jokes. This tear TDF is a super strong field. For me I see Alberto as being in a similar postion to Cadel has been for the last few years. I still think it will be hard to beat Alberto but this year he is definately more vulnerable than he will be ever be again, particularly if the other GC´s contenders force there hands early and hard.

Ya, and looking at this Tour, there are 3 mountain top finishes, 1 TT but more importantly 3 mountainous stages with break written all over them. AC Astana is going to be chasing all Tour long...

Of course a non contender could get an early yellow and try and keep it, which would help Astana out a lot. May even be a good tactic for Astana to do just that, but idk the break stages are in and around the Mountain Top finishes.
Stage 8-MT
Stage 9-Break
Stage14-MT
Stage15-Break
Stage16-Break
Stage17-MT
I still think the strongest team with GT contenders is going to win and NOT just the strongest GT contender which is obviously AC....exciting either way

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Those who keep dropping KOM jerseys for a few days and Vuelta top 10´s in GC as evidence for Astana´s strength are cracking jokes. This tear TDF is a super strong field. For me I see Alberto as being in a similar postion to Cadel has been for the last few years. I still think it will be hard to beat Alberto but this year he is definately more vulnerable than he will be ever be again, particularly if the other GC´s contenders force there hands early and hard.

No jokes. It takes a lot of climbing ability to be getting up in the Vuelta top 10 when you have a virtually non-existent time trial and are working for your team leader (eg Rodríguez). And Tiralongo? Well, if you're climbing with the group of Gesink, Valverde, Sánchez, Evans, Basso and Mosquera, and ahead of the likes of Moreno and Cobo, then I think you've earnt the right to be considered as somebody who can do a good job in the mountains for their team leader.

Yes, he doesn't have a super-team like the 2009 Astana team. But it also comes down to whether the teams bring everybody they have (no way is Liqui bringing Pellizotti, Nibali, Basso AND Kreuziger and still adding Szmyd and Zaugg to the party) - Astana will! But it's ludicrous to say that he'll be in the same position as Evans. Jürgen van den Broeck and 2007-era Chris Horner at different times do not match up to two Grand Tour winners.

 

[Publicus]

I think Alberto is in trouble of being isolated big time this year. Last year he had Armstrong and Kloden who while not riding for him per say were still interested in podium finishes and thus the ´team´ was somewhat supportive of him. This year given his clear favouritism I can not see him getting any help from other teams. As previously elaborated on, Liquigas, Radioshack, Rabo, Caisse, Saxo... have at least 2 very strong GC - top 5 contenders. Alberto may well be forced too chase down all of them.

Those who keep dropping KOM jerseys for a few days and Vuelta top 10´s in GC as evidence for Astana´s strength are cracking jokes. This tear TDF is a super strong field. For me I see Alberto as being in a similar postion to Cadel has been for the last few years. I still think it will be hard to beat Alberto but this year he is definately more vulnerable than he will be ever be again, particularly if the other GC´s contenders force there hands early and hard.

a couple of things. First, neither Armstrong nor Kloden rode in support of AC last year. They were around but at no time was AC sitting on their wheel at the moment of truth. That's the first point.

Second, I think folks greatly overstate the value of having anoter teammate on the final selection. Just because they are there doesn't mean that they have the capacity to do anything. Recall Armstrong and Kloden being with AC on Verbier and Col de Romme. They might as well have not been there. With the exception of Andy Schleck I'm not aware of any GC candidate that can climb with AC in his TDF form. Not for long anyway.

Third, I don't have the time to dig it up but I'm almost positive that Lotto never had a cadel Evans led squad that enjoyed this level of success in stage races and the Classics.

Fourth, the goal is to win not beat AC. As much as folks want to argue that teams will double and triple team Astana, they seem to forget that other teams also want to win. So while it seems fun to speculate about Levi laying down a vicious attack and everyone waiting for AC to shut it down, chances are Andy would be the first one to jump--he can't afford to give away time to a guy like Levi who can climb and TT. That's just one example, there are others. Plus there is nothing like a man in the break to shift the burden to others.

Fifth, I think this is the deepest field I recall in recent memory. There are plenty of ways that AC can be beat. Teammates can falter. He can have an untimely mechanical. He could crash. Those same risks exist for EVERY GC candidate.

 

[xmoonx]

a couple of things. First, neither Armstrong nor Kloden rode in support of AC last year. They were around but at no time was AC sitting on their wheel at the moment of truth. That's the first point.

Second, I think folks greatly overstate the value of having anoter teammate on the final selection. Just because they are there doesn't mean that they have the capacity to do anything. Recall Armstrong and Kloden being with AC on Verbier and Col de Romme. They might as well have not been there. With the exception of Andy Schleck I'm not aware of any GC candidate that can climb with AC in his TDF form. Not for long anyway.

Third, I don't have the time to dig it up but I'm almost positive that Lotto never had a cadel Evans led squad that enjoyed this level of success in stage races and the Classics.

Fourth, the goal is to win not beat AC. As much as folks want to argue that teams will double and triple team Astana, they seem to forget that other teams also want to win. So while it seems fun to speculate about Levi laying down a vicious attack and everyone waiting for AC to shut it down, chances are Andy would be the first one to jump--he can't afford to give away time to a guy like Levi who can climb and TT. That's just one example, there are others. Plus there is nothing like a man in the break to shift the burden to others.

Fifth, I think this is the deepest field I recall in recent memory. There are plenty of ways that AC can be beat. Teammates can falter. He can have an untimely mechanical. He could crash. Those same risks exist for EVERY GC candidate.

Yes, but the onus is on AC and Astana, its his Tour for the taking. I think if Leipheimer, Kloden, FSchleck went on a break. You would see a waiting game in which everyone would be (expecting) waiting for Astana to reel in.
As others have pointed out, therein lies the difference between racing to win and racing to podium. Certainly they all want to win but tactically it changes things around. AC/Astana will be racing to win and so maybe Saxo but i think Riis is smart enough to keep his cards close...

 

[karlboss]

I think after today we can close this thread. theHog prevails!

I didn't see anyone climb a mountain pass. He is in good form though.

 

[El Imbatido]

Yes, but the onus is on AC and Astana, its his Tour for the taking. I think if Leipheimer, Kloden, FSchleck went on a break. You would see a waiting game in which everyone would be (expecting) waiting for Astana to reel in.
As others have pointed out, therein lies the difference between racing to win and racing to podium. Certainly they all want to win but tactically it changes things around. AC/Astana will be racing to win and so maybe Saxo but i think Riis is smart enough to keep his cards close...

It is unlikely to get one GC man in a break let alone three. And if somehow magically they did get there you would have Rabobank, Caisse, Astana, Liquigas all sending men to the front to help pull back. If they went up the road it would be more a joint effort, not just one singular team to pull them back because no team could let that go. BUT before any of that happens they have to get in the break which IMO will not happen. ie. Evans in last years TdF was nearly 4mins down, did they let him go? No way!! The guy would have to be 10min+ down if they were GC man

 

[karlboss]

It is unlikely to get one GC man in a break let alone three. And if somehow magically they did get there you would have Rabobank, Caisse, Astana, Liquigas all sending men to the front to help pull back. If they went up the road it would be more a joint effort, not just one singular team to pull them back because no team could let that go. BUT before any of that happens they have to get in the break which IMO will not happen. ie. Evans in last years TdF was nearly 4mins down, did they let him go? No way!! The guy would have to be 10min+ down if they were GC man

Damn straight, However a break with one GC rider from every team and noone from Astana could succeed...and I could flip a coin and have it land neither heads nor tails too

 

[kurtinsc]

a couple of things. First, neither Armstrong nor Kloden rode in support of AC last year. They were around but at no time was AC sitting on their wheel at the moment of truth. That's the first point.

Second, I think folks greatly overstate the value of having anoter teammate on the final selection. Just because they are there doesn't mean that they have the capacity to do anything. Recall Armstrong and Kloden being with AC on Verbier and Col de Romme. They might as well have not been there. With the exception of Andy Schleck I'm not aware of any GC candidate that can climb with AC in his TDF form. Not for long anyway.

Third, I don't have the time to dig it up but I'm almost positive that Lotto never had a cadel Evans led squad that enjoyed this level of success in stage races and the Classics.

Fourth, the goal is to win not beat AC. As much as folks want to argue that teams will double and triple team Astana, they seem to forget that other teams also want to win. So while it seems fun to speculate about Levi laying down a vicious attack and everyone waiting for AC to shut it down, chances are Andy would be the first one to jump--he can't afford to give away time to a guy like Levi who can climb and TT. That's just one example, there are others. Plus there is nothing like a man in the break to shift the burden to others.

Fifth, I think this is the deepest field I recall in recent memory. There are plenty of ways that AC can be beat. Teammates can falter. He can have an untimely mechanical. He could crash. Those same risks exist for EVERY GC candidate.

I agree with you about Contador not needing the team. The reason is the type of climber he is. He's a counter-attacker.

When it gets down to the last 20 or so... eventually one of the favorites will attack. Contador will go with him... and in many cases go past him. Because of his acceleration he can do that. Riders like that, especially when they also happen to be the strongest, don't need that powerful a team around them.

On the other hand, some riders don't have the acceleration. If they are isolated, they have to try to methodically pull an attack back on their own, or limit the losses. Those leaders do benefit more from a strong team.

On Verbier last year, Lance benefited a lot from Kloden being there... he might have lost another minute without him. That meant a podium spot. Now look at Astarloza on Ventoux... he lost out on a top 10 by 19 seconds... with a 3 second lead going on on Le Mevel. Not having a comparitively strong support rider may have cost him a top 10 finish.

I don't think Contador needs a great team. I think Astana is more then sufficient for his needs.

I just don't think they're super strong... I see them as providing adequate support... not excellent support.

 

[xmoonx]

It is unlikely to get one GC man in a break let alone three. And if somehow magically they did get there you would have Rabobank, Caisse, Astana, Liquigas all sending men to the front to help pull back. If they went up the road it would be more a joint effort, not just one singular team to pull them back because no team could let that go. BUT before any of that happens they have to get in the break which IMO will not happen. ie. Evans in last years TdF was nearly 4mins down, did they let him go? No way!! The guy would have to be 10min+ down if they were GC man

Sorry i was not clearer. I meant either/or NOT all three (or those guys specifically). Yes. I agree that would be unlikely and for sure there would be a joint effort to reel it back.

"I still think the strongest team with GT contenders (plural) is going to win and NOT just the strongest GT contender which is obviously AC....exciting either way"

Well thats the point is it not. Force them to chase and yes you tire out your guy (hopefully them too) in doing so, but you have 1-2 others.
Seemed to have worked for the Schlecks and Sastre.

 

[Publicus]

Yes, but the onus is on AC and Astana, its his Tour for the taking. I think if Leipheimer, Kloden, FSchleck went on a break. You would see a waiting game in which everyone would be (expecting) waiting for Astana to reel in.
As others have pointed out, therein lies the difference between racing to win and racing to podium. Certainly they all want to win but tactically it changes things around. AC/Astana will be racing to win and so maybe Saxo but i think Riis is smart enough to keep his cards close...

The onus is on every team that wants to win. I won't go into the myriad of variables that come into play with who gets into what breaks at the TdF, but I can assure you that the only way a Frank Schleck, Levi or Kloden get into a break is they are 10 minutes or more down on GC and it's the day after the final TT.

And understand this: Its in Andy's interest to race in the mountains. He needs all the time he can get on guys like Menchov, Evans, Armstrong and Wiggans. He can't afford to give up time waiting for AC to chase down an attack. At least not very often. And frankly I think Andy believes that he can take AC in the mountains mano-y-mano. He won't shy away from attacking.

 

[karlboss]

a couple of things. First, neither Armstrong nor Kloden rode in support of AC last year. They were around but at no time was AC sitting on their wheel at the moment of truth. That's the first point.

Having them there helped extraordinarily briefly, maybe once as Andy waited to see what they would do. Their benefit was the TTT, thats it.

Second, I think folks greatly overstate the value of having anoter teammate on the final selection. Just because they are there doesn't mean that they have the capacity to do anything. Recall Armstrong and Kloden being with AC on Verbier and Col de Romme. They might as well have not been there. With the exception of Andy Schleck I'm not aware of any GC candidate that can climb with AC in his TDF form. Not for long anyway.

Everyone except Contador needs that 2nd rider, thats why rating a team without their GC rider Astana falls down to 5,6,7. In terms of team strength when you include Contador...1 or 2 for me. If Contador is in the form he was last year (I see no reason why not) then he won't have a bad day and noone will launch an attack he can't follow so he doesn't need them.

Third, I don't have the time to dig it up but I'm almost positive that Lotto never had a cadel Evans led squad that enjoyed this level of success in stage races and the Classics.

Astana is not Lotto, Lotto never had a team this strong going into a tour, ever.

Fourth, the goal is to win not beat AC. As much as folks want to argue that teams will double and triple team Astana, they seem to forget that other teams also want to win. So while it seems fun to speculate about Levi laying down a vicious attack and everyone waiting for AC to shut it down, chances are Andy would be the first one to jump--he can't afford to give away time to a guy like Levi who can climb and TT. That's just one example, there are others. Plus there is nothing like a man in the break to shift the burden to others.

Alliances off the bike may come into play. I see Saxo and Astana riding on strength, maybe Evans and Menchov also. Other teams will have to try for the long break and deals will need to be done to make sure these breaks have a chance of succeeding.

Fifth, I think this is the deepest field I recall in recent memory. There are plenty of ways that AC can be beat. Teammates can falter. He can have an untimely mechanical. He could crash. Those same risks exist for EVERY GC candidate.

Not sure I agree, just because Contador is such and overwhelming favourite. For 2nd there are a few names thrown around but normally Andy, and then the next 10...there's the depth.

 

[phillop]

I used to be addamant astana was not strong enough to support contador, but am now thinking i couldnt have been more wrong.
Contador
vino
pierero
de la fuente
jesus hernadez
for the mountains, and they have **** loads of strong riders for the flat
it may not be as strong as liquigas and saxo bank, but still bloody strong.
will be funny if vino attacks contador though

 

[xmoonx]

The onus is on every team that wants to win. I won't go into the myriad of variables that come into play with who gets into what breaks at the TdF, but I can assure you that the only way a Frank Schleck, Levi or Kloden get into a break is they are 10 minutes or more down on GC and it's the day after the final TT.

And understand this: Its in Andy's interest to race in the mountains. He needs all the time he can get on guys like Menchov, Evans, Armstrong and Wiggans. He can't afford to give up time waiting for AC to chase down an attack. At least not very often. And frankly I think Andy believes that he can take AC in the mountains mano-y-mano. He won't shy away from attacking.

*"I still think the strongest team with GT contenders (plural) is going to win and NOT just the strongest GT contender which is obviously AC....exciting either way

I agree that AS would go mano a mano with AC and i believe he will on the 3 Mountain Top type finishes; not many others can/or would want too.

Bear in mind that there are 3 serious mountain stages w/o mountain top finishes and that having a strong (climbing entourage)team will make a big difference. So it behooves all others to take him down a notch (tire the team/him out);send a Leipheimer, a Kloden or even a FSchleck (not all 3) i know that could never happen (or would certainly be reeled in jointly by most teams). Of course it tires your guy out (hopefully the chasing team too) but you have *1-2 others in reserve.

Thats what Saxo did with the Schlecks and Sastre basically.

Maybe if a RS'er went Saxo would join in pursuit, but if they were smart they would/should wait.

 

[xmoonx]

Evans, Vino and Basso are peaking for the Giro; so not sure what roll they'll play in The Tour.

 

[karlboss]

*"I still think the strongest team with GT contenders (plural) is going to win and NOT just the strongest GT contender which is obviously AC....exciting either way

I agree that AS would go mano a mano with AC and i believe he will on the 3 Mountain Top type finishes; not many others can/or would want too.

Bear in mind that there are 3 serious mountain stages w/o mountain top finishes and that having a strong (climbing entourage)team will make a big difference. So it behooves all others to take him down a notch (tire the team/him out);send a Leipheimer, a Kloden or even a FSchleck (not all 3) i know that could never happen (or would certainly be reeled in jointly by most teams). Of course it tires your guy out (hopefully the chasing team too) but you have *1-2 others in reserve.

Thats what Saxo did with the Schlecks and Sastre basically.

Maybe if a RS'er went Saxo would join in pursuit, but if they were smart they would/should wait.

Nope, because Contador is a stronger TTer he can afford to give other contenders a longer leash, Saxo will blink first or watch their chances die. Those 3 stages without a mountain top finish...
9 has too long between the penultimate and ultimate climb, and then to the finish after the ultimate climb for a GC contender to make an attack stick.
15 just isn't hard enough.
16 has 60km after the final climb...far too far. Saxo will control the race.

 

[karlboss]

Evans, Vino and Basso are peaking for the Giro; so not sure what roll they'll play in The Tour.

Basso? you sure?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

*"I still think the strongest team with GT contenders (plural) is going to win and NOT just the strongest GT contender which is obviously AC....exciting either way

I agree that AS would go mano a mano with AC and i believe he will on the 3 Mountain Top type finishes; not many others can/or would want too.

Bear in mind that there are 3 serious mountain stages w/o mountain top finishes and that having a strong (climbing entourage)team will make a big difference. So it behooves all others to take him down a notch (tire the team/him out);send a Leipheimer, a Kloden or even a FSchleck (not all 3) i know that could never happen (or would certainly be reeled in jointly by most teams). Of course it tires your guy out (hopefully the chasing team too) but you have *1-2 others in reserve.

Thats what Saxo did with the Schlecks and Sastre basically.

Maybe if a RS'er went Saxo would join in pursuit, but if they were smart they would/should wait.

History does not support your optimistic view.

Sorry to be boring - Saxo will be tired from defending Cancs win at the prologue. If saxo have GC ambitions then the smart move would be to relinquish the jersey after the 3rd or 4 th stage to a team that does not have a GC threat - BBox, Cofidis etc.

AC dominates in the mountains and although he may not have taken back he will be the 'virtual leader'. They do not need to control the bunch, they just need to defend their position.

While other teams may try an audacious attack Astana - who are more than capable to defend a lead - will be joined by other teams who are interested in defending their positions.

 

[xmoonx]

Basso? you sure?

Basso interview: “I really want to race and achieve a high level performance. I'll be at the top of my condition at the beginning of the Giro but in Trentino I'll have the opportunity to test myself…I would like to repeat the good performance of 2009: that would be a great boost of hope.”

He stated recently that he would also ride the Tour de Romandie, so that would give him a chance to hone his condition prior to the start of the Giro in Amsterdam on May 8th.

 

[Publicus]

Evans, Vino and Basso are peaking for the Giro; so not sure what roll they'll play in The Tour.

It's why I discount the threat of Evans and Basso at the Tour. Vino isn't going for the overall at the Giro. He wants a stage win and maybe to wear the Maglia Rosa, but that's about as far as it goes. He knows that July is what matters the most for Astana.

 

[El Imbatido]

Basso interview: “I really want to race and achieve a high level performance. I'll be at the top of my condition at the beginning of the Giro but in Trentino I'll have the opportunity to test myself…I would like to repeat the good performance of 2009: that would be a great boost of hope.”

He stated recently that he would also ride the Tour de Romandie, so that would give him a chance to hone his condition prior to the start of the Giro in Amsterdam on May 8th.

This throws a massive spanner in the works of the Liquigas team. I was under the impression that Basso was gonna work for Pellizotti at the Giro and Pellizotti would work for Basso at the Tour??

 

[xmoonx]

I agree with you about Contador not needing the team. The reason is the type of climber he is. He's a counter-attacker.

When it gets down to the last 20 or so... eventually one of the favorites will attack. Contador will go with him... and in many cases go past him. Because of his acceleration he can do that. Riders like that, especially when they also happen to be the strongest, don't need that powerful a team around them.

On the other hand, some riders don't have the acceleration. If they are isolated, they have to try to methodically pull an attack back on their own, or limit the losses. Those leaders do benefit more from a strong team.

On Verbier last year, Lance benefited a lot from Kloden being there... he might have lost another minute without him. That meant a podium spot. Now look at Astarloza on Ventoux... he lost out on a top 10 by 19 seconds... with a 3 second lead going on on Le Mevel. Not having a comparitively strong support rider may have cost him a top 10 finish.

I don't think Contador needs a great team. I think Astana is more then sufficient for his needs.

I just don't think they're super strong... I see them as providing adequate support... not excellent support.

You think? Look at L-B-L

Watch as AC bridges up to ASchleck and Gilbert (about 4 minutes in), looks like he teleported. Glibert looks shocked.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFiXazQDueQ&feature=related

 

[Jonathan]

Yes, but the onus is on AC and Astana, its his Tour for the taking. I think if Leipheimer, Kloden, FSchleck went on a break. You would see a waiting game in which everyone would be (expecting) waiting for Astana to reel in.
As others have pointed out, therein lies the difference between racing to win and racing to podium. Certainly they all want to win but tactically it changes things around. AC/Astana will be racing to win and so maybe Saxo but i think Riis is smart enough to keep his cards close...

I don't see how 'everyone' is going to play a waiting game when Leipheimer, Klöden or F. Schleck are attacking. Unless one of them had lost a fair amount of time already, which is not unthinkable.

It's rare to see a GC candidate attack early and 'paralyze' those who try to chase him. And if the one attacking is not a GC candidate, then why chase so hard?

Well, Tour stages are not about the yellow jersey, as a rule. In most of them, the podium status quo is maintained. However, many teams are interested in winning stages and/or other classifications. So it is rare for all teams except the one with the biggest GC favorite to do nothing at all. The moment a 2nd place is endangered, the team currently holding second place will start to chase, for example.

You seem to think that it is in other teams' interest to ride specifically against Astana. That is a misconception; it is in any team's interest to ride for itself. Rabobank only like to see Astana lose if they have something to gain. They're not going to help Radioshack just to make Contador lose. You seem to call that 'racing to win' but it's not the same thing. Racing so Radioshack can win, sure, but there is only one team interested in doing that.

Contador has a good group of men around him, and he won't be wanting much more team support. Radioshack and specifically Armstrong are seriously hampered by the fact that there is no TTT. The single ITT is slightly in Armstrong's favor, who will have to struggle with his former specialization only once.

I for one am quite impressed with the potential power that Radioshack holds; it's composed of many large talents and established names in cycling. I do think this can translate in a good Tour team, but a leader does not automatically want big names riding in front of him. I'm sorry to say: Astana will do fine, it is very unlikely that Contador is isolated at crucial moments. TheHog makes a good point: what a GC candidate really wants is helpers who can play the right role at the right time.

 

[bianchigirl]

xmoonx, when did you start watching GTs? Do you watch any outside the TdF? Just wondering because you're entire argument is predicated on the TdF 1999-2005 and the performance of Lance Armstrong. Never before or since has a GC rider needed as much of a team as Armstrong did and it has skewed your thinking - you assume that a) all GTs must be ridden as USDiscatana rode them and b) that all GC contenders have the same characteristics as Armstrong.

But your continued assertion - despite all evidence to the contrary - that Armstrong is the strongest contender on the strongest team - has at least given me a good laugh on a gloomy Monday

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Basso? you sure?

Yes, the Giro is what counts in Italy. However Evans isn't going for Giro per se he said he wants to use is as preparation for the tour but we all know Evans is always at a high level.