Le Tour 2010

[flicker]

Sure would be relevant. If Astana isn't trying to chase down the break to protect yellow, they get to sit in the slip stream of whoever does have the yellow jersey and the slip streams of Saxo and Liquigas. Kind of hard to force a selection that somehow leaves the team forcing the selection fresh and AC tired and without teammates.

See for example the stage to Verbier last year. You had Liquigas, Garmin and Saxo Bank driving the pace to shred the field, which whittled the main group down to Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Alberto, Lance Armstrong and Bradley Wiggins. The only ones with anything left in the tank were Andy and Alberto. And one of them had a lot more in the tank than the other.

Andy ain't gonna be a Contador, never.

You know what the shack will do. They will try to ride Astana and Contador into the ground anywhere they can.

I see a ruthless pace in the tour this year, not to many second tier breakaways.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Andy ain't gonna be a Contador, never.

You know what the shack will do. They will try to ride Astana and Contador into the ground anywhere they can.

I see a ruthless pace in the tour this year, not to many second tier breakaways.

But I really don't think they have a chance of pulling this off. And even if they send a guy up a climb towards the end of a stage to attack Contador (which who would this be? Kloden? Leipheimer? Those guys don't have the stats to attack an elite group of favorites like Valverede, Schleck, Team Green, and that other guy.), what happens when Contador shrugs, follows, and drops Radio Shack's cunnin' attacker?

RS isn't the team that will challenge for the win. It will be Liquigas, Saxo, and maybe Rabo.

 

[Publicus]

Andy ain't gonna be a Contador, never.

You know what the shack will do. They will try to ride Astana and Contador into the ground anywhere they can.

I see a ruthless pace in the tour this year, not to many second tier breakaways.

That's not possible. He's ridden with those guys and they've got a bunch of older legs that can't keep that pace up over the course of 21 stages. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Astana and Saxo Bank colluded to keep the pace high (no soft pedaling for you Mr. Armstrong!).

 

[xmoonx]

Neither Leipheimer nor Kloden will be allowed to get away in a break. Look what happened in 2009 when Evans - who was about a month behind on GC - tried to get away in a break. Both Hincapie and Cancellara told him to F*** Off, even though he, Evans, had started the break.

Yes I remember that and basically they wouldn't allow/help him at all, because it simply would put an end to anyones stage win hopes. In defense of Evans, he rarely has had the luxury of having a man up in the break he could bridge to, and he didn't there.

 

[phillop]

I am looking foward to seeing how contador and andy schleck react to a attack from sastre like he did when he won the tour and those 2 stages in the giro last year. i just hope hes going well enough to launch one.
any one got any ideas, will they go with him? will they let him go and try reel him in later?
im a sastre fan, so i hope that if this happens theyre to busy marking each other and he takes time on them

 

[Beech Mtn]

But I really don't think they have a chance of pulling this off. And even if they send a guy up a climb towards the end of a stage to attack Contador (which who would this be? Kloden? Leipheimer? Those guys don't have the stats to attack an elite group of favorites like Valverede, Schleck, Team Green, and that other guy.), what happens when Contador shrugs, follows, and drops Radio Shack's cunnin' attacker?

RS isn't the team that will challenge for the win. It will be Liquigas, Saxo, and maybe Rabo.

Only if Menchov/Gesink can stay upright and avoid the Curse of the Rabo Jersey.

 

[Angliru]

I'm asking which team surrounding the GC rider is the best support.

You seem to want to take the GC rider into account.

By that measure... Contador's team will always be best because he's going to win the Tour... even if he was riding with the Jelly Belly Cycling team. I think that's silly... because if say... Cadel Evans gets 3rd it doesn't mean he's got the 3rd best team supporting him, he's just very good on a poor team.

So feel free not to answer... I'll see what other people think.

Part of the problem is that Shack will likely have as their "leader" and protected rider (LA) someone who likely will only be the 3rd strongest on the team (Leipheimer and Kloden). Johann willingly will sacrifice Kloden and Leipheimer's chances of Tour success to keep LA as high up in the gc as possible. We have seen nothing to believe that Armstrong has regained the TT form and climbing snap that used to be his trademark.

Sending Leipheimer or Kloden out on a long break as bait to make Astana work with the hope of eventually isolating Contador sounds good on paper but as has been stated in numerorus threads there are other teams that have interests that will likely share the work load if they find that their position(s) in the gc is threatened by any gains made by riders of Kloden's and Leipheimers stature.

While we're comparing and rating the strength of the contenders' teams what's most important is who has the most potent weapon and the means to launch it. Astana has shown that any doubts about the quality of the riders after Armstrong and Bruyneel absconded with all the supposed "talent" have been proven wrong. Vino has shown that he still has a whole lot of life left in his legs and appears to have a bond with Contador along with a strong mutual respect for one another. Astana may not have the strongest team on paper but they have shown much more success up to this point in the season than most pundants had predicted. They are no one-trick pony.

 

[kurtinsc]

This would require all the teams to somehow get a group consisting of a Schleck, a Liquigas contender(not Pellizotti), one of the RadioShack trio, Valverde (if he is there) Wiggins, Evans, Menchov, Vandevelde, Sastre all into a breakaway without Contador, how likely is that and where would it happen? It would mean all teams riding together to eliminate one rider.

The only time I can remember anything remotely similar happening was when LeMond, Alcala, Breukink, Kelly all got away in a early break in the 91 Tour before the TTT. Indurain won that year with Chiappucci, Bugno on the podium. PDM exited because of the Intralipid affair. Might have been interesting if PDM had remained but still think Indurain would have won.

Otherwise, if any of these riders miss out, they along with Astana will have reason to chase.

I'm not necessarily suggesting a break... I'm suggesting more of a selection.

Usually the pace in the mountains is pretty slow until the last climb or two. Then the pace gets ramped up and people start going out the back. You get to a pelaton of 20-30 riders... and the favorites attack from out of that group.

What I'm suggesting isn't an attack... but rather that the deep teams use up some domestiques setting a tough pace earlier on in a stage (perhaps even before the halfway point), to get down to that smaller 20-30 number early on.

MAYBE then they could take advantage of Contador only having 1 or perhaps 2 teammates likely to make that sort of selection. Radio Shack, Saxo and Liquigas probably have the depth to pull it off.

But I don't even know of that would accomplish anything... and it would require coordination between several teams. But I think it would work better then Saxo's plan at Verbier last year where they waited until the bottom of the last climb, ramped up the pace to shed helpers off... then watched Contador attack away at the end. I think for that sort of thing to work it will have to be done earlier.

 

[kurtinsc]

Part of the problem is that Shack will likely have as their "leader" and protected rider (LA) someone who likely will only be the 3rd strongest on the team (Leipheimer and Kloden). Johann willingly will sacrifice Kloden and Leipheimer's chances of Tour success to keep LA as high up in the gc as possible. We have seen nothing to believe that Armstrong has regained the TT form and climbing snap that used to be his trademark.

Sending Leipheimer or Kloden out on a long break as bait to make Astana work with the hope of eventually isolating Contador sounds good on paper but as has been stated in numerorus threads there are other teams that have interests that will likely share the work load if they find that their position(s) in the gc is threatened by any gains made by riders of Kloden's and Leipheimers stature.

While we're comparing and rating the strength of the contenders' teams what's most important is who has the most potent weapon and the means to launch it. Astana has shown that any doubts about the quality of the riders after Armstrong and Bruyneel absconded with all the supposed "talent" have been proven wrong. Vino has shown that he still has a whole lot of life left in his legs and appears to have a bond with Contador along with a strong mutual respect for one another. Astana may not have the strongest team on paper but they have shown much more success up to this point in the season than most pundants had predicted. They are no one-trick pony.

Are we talking about the best team... overall... or the best "other 8" to support the lead rider?

I think I might not be discussing the same thing you are.

Like I said... if your ultimate measure is "the most potent weapon and the means to launch it"... essentially you're asking which team has the rider most likely to win the Tour.

The answer to that will be "whatever team Contador is riding on". It's not a very interesting discussion... there isn't a lot of room for debate.

My interest isn't in the answer to that... we already know the answer. I'm curious as to which team has the best set of support for their lead rider... which implies a lack of consideration for the talent of the leader.


Astana is more then capable of riding well enough to set Contador up to win the tour. If that's your measure... then I guess they are the best team. But if you say... switched Contador with Nibali... I think he'd win by a larger margin. Same goes if he switched places with Andy. And I think it would also be true if he switched places with Lance (assuming there wasn't a conspiracy with the rest of the RS team to work for lance even though he wasn't on their team anymore). I think Caisse might also be better.

The Astana support for Contador at the Tour is going to be a lot better then I expected entering the season. But saying they're the 2nd best group for GC support... I struggle to believe that.

 

[flicker]

What I am talking about is multi day attacks by Shack before the mountains ala CSC Sastre L'Alpe win I think 2008. On the flats, grinding it out on the rollers, in the mountains etc. Only real chance Radio Shack/Lance has. I am pretty sure they are strong enough to flush out most of the contenders. I imagine after about half the tour they can eliminate possible winners down to 5. Then the real fun begins.....

 

[franciep10]

What I am talking about is multi day attacks by Shack before the mountains ala CSC Sastre L'Alpe win I think 2008. On the flats, grinding it out on the rollers, in the mountains etc. Only real chance Radio Shack/Lance has. I am pretty sure they are strong enough to flush out most of the contenders. I imagine after about half the tour they can eliminate possible winners down to 5. Then the real fun begins.....

The thing is Lance probably won't be there if they try do that. Anyway there is only one rider come July that can put pressure on AC and that's Andy and that's only if he's vastly improved from his LBL performance because AC bridged to him way too easily.

 

[karlboss]

I'm not necessarily suggesting a break... I'm suggesting more of a selection.

Usually the pace in the mountains is pretty slow until the last climb or two. Then the pace gets ramped up and people start going out the back. You get to a pelaton of 20-30 riders... and the favorites attack from out of that group.

What I'm suggesting isn't an attack... but rather that the deep teams use up some domestiques setting a tough pace earlier on in a stage (perhaps even before the halfway point), to get down to that smaller 20-30 number early on.

MAYBE then they could take advantage of Contador only having 1 or perhaps 2 teammates likely to make that sort of selection. Radio Shack, Saxo and Liquigas probably have the depth to pull it off.

But I don't even know of that would accomplish anything... and it would require coordination between several teams. But I think it would work better then Saxo's plan at Verbier last year where they waited until the bottom of the last climb, ramped up the pace to shed helpers off... then watched Contador attack away at the end. I think for that sort of thing to work it will have to be done earlier.

Play it through in your mind and what happens...screw it, put Contador alone with 20 other guys from different teams onto the final climb of a stage and what happens...we all know the answer. I hope saxo tries to get to the last climb Frank and Andy vs Contador
Same goes for whoever mentioned ride hard all day on the flats...8 guys can't sustain that effort at a high enough pace for even a week to hurt Contador. Going back to USPS days they could ride on the front and discourage attacks, but not tire out a contender sitting out of the wind.
Having said if noone tries, I'll be disappointed.

 

[analo69]

Saxo bank tour team

Saxo bank shortlist for the tour announced by Bjarne Riis in an interview with a Danish newspaper. No suprises though.

4 danes:
Matti Breschel
Jakob Fuglsang
Nicki Sørensen
Chris Anker Sørensen

Jens Voigt
2 x Schleck
Fabian Cancellara
Stuart O'grady
Gustav Larsson

Of those 10 riders, one will be sorted off. Probably CA Sørensen, O'grady or Gustav Larsson, depending on the form in June. Matti Breschel has apparently been promised a spot, but I guess time will tell. My guess is that Larsson or O'grady won't participate because there is no TTT and O'grady is becoming old, allthoug he is probably very important for the team as a capitain de la route. But perhaps Nicki Sørensen or Voigt could do that just as well.

 

[Cerberus]

Saxo bank shortlist for the tour announced by Bjarne Riis in an interview with a Danish newspaper. No suprises though.

4 danes:
Matti Breschel
Jakob Fuglsang
Nicki Sørensen
Chris Anker Sørensen

Jens Voigt
2 x Schleck
Fabian Cancellara
Stuart O'grady
Gustav Larsson

Of those 10 riders, one will be sorted off. Probably CA Sørensen, O'grady or Gustav Larsson, depending on the form in June. Matti Breschel has apparently been promised a spot, but I guess time will tell. My guess is that Larsson or O'grady won't participate because there is no TTT and O'grady is becoming old, allthoug he is probably very important for the team as a capitain de la route. But perhaps Nicki Sørensen or Voigt could do that just as well.

I believe you're referring to this article in case anyone want to read the Google-translated version..

 

[Jan the Man]

Personally, I think O'Grady may miss out.

 

[flicker]

That's not possible. He's ridden with those guys and they've got a bunch of older legs that can't keep that pace up over the course of 21 stages. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Astana and Saxo Bank colluded to keep the pace high (no soft pedaling for you Mr. Armstrong!).

You are probably right however, checking the latest Big Sur Marathon results last Sunday.

Winner 2:26.09 age23 age 36 2:27.39 age40 2:35.53

Conditions hilly and windy at least 19 miles fully exposed to wind. Long medium grades. Doped who knows?

I do think exceptional well trained athletes should be able to train into the 20 yr. group in certain events. Check out Leipheimers TT work. Pretty close to the best in the world.

Also Kloeden Zubeldia etc.

 

[Publicus]

You are probably right however, checking the latest Big Sur Marathon results last Sunday.

Winner 2:26.09 age23 age 36 2:27.39 age40 2:35.53

Conditions hilly and windy at least 19 miles fully exposed to wind. Long medium grades. Doped who knows?

I do think exceptional well trained athletes should be able to train into the 20 yr. group in certain events. Check out Leipheimers TT work. Pretty close to the best in the world.

Also Kloeden Zubeldia etc.

For the sake of argument, let's say they are just as fit aerobically as AC. The point is still that for your tactic to be employed, they will have to be at the front of the peloton, whereas AC and Astana will be sitting in their slipstreams. I don't see how this makes AC MORE tired than it makes them--everything I've heard says that drafting uses less energy than riding in front.

 

[xmoonx]

interesting AC is doing the Giro too; youthful legs. says he's hinted at doing the double ala Indurain

 

[flicker]

For the sake of argument, let's say they are just as fit aerobically as AC. The point is still that for your tactic to be employed, they will have to be at the front of the peloton, whereas AC and Astana will be sitting in their slipstreams. I don't see how this makes AC MORE tired than it makes them--everything I've heard says that drafting uses less energy than riding in front.

I think Alberto is almost impossible to beat. Since he is a climbing specialist I thought his opponents might work to ramp things up in the crosswinds to possibly tire him? Then possibly attack on the small climbs? Hopefully in the same stage or coinciding stages.

 

[Publicus]

I think Alberto is almost impossible to beat. Since he is a climbing specialist I thought his opponents might work to ramp things up in the crosswinds to possibly tire him? Then possibly attack on the small climbs? Hopefully in the same stage or coinciding stages.

Well now the crosswinds and the cobbles are legitimate threat and I expect to see lots of teams trying to exploit that advantage whenever and wherever possible. They are certainly going to have to make every effort to put him under pressure and put the onus on him to attack, instead of sitting back and waiting to when he wants to grab time. That being said, he's said in recent interviews he wants to make it hard for his competitors very early on, so maybe he's going with the best defense is a good offense mantra.

Still two months away....

 

[karlboss]

Contador is the strongest, we all know he's the strongest. So almost every plan is doomed to failure anyway. I guess as long as the other teams try something and don't just fight for second like flecha at roubaix it'll be a great tour. If they do...snoozefest once again. You never know, maybe someone will get lucky.

 

[awal3207]

The thing is Lance probably won't be there if they try do that. Anyway there is only one rider come July that can put pressure on AC and that's Andy and that's only if he's vastly improved from his LBL performance because AC bridged to him way too easily.

The way I saw it was that Evans pulled Gilbert and Schleck back and Contador jumped fro 10-20metres behind. It wasn´t quite as impressive as others in the forum made out. But your right he needs to improve, assuming Andy was peaking for the classics and Contador was not.

 

[Cerberus]

The way I saw it was that Evans pulled Gilbert and Schleck back and Contador jumped fro 10-20metres behind. It wasn´t quite as impressive as others in the forum made out. But your right he needs to improve, assuming Andy was peaking for the classics and Contador was not.

I'm pretty sure that Andy was trying to peak for the classics, but with his knee problems he might not have managed. He certainly looked a lot less impressive than last year. He wasn't terrible, but he wasn't 100% IMO. In any case I don't think you can really draw a lot of conclusion from even hilly classics to the Tour. The races are to different and the peaks are to uncertain. For example I wouldn't count Gilbert, Kolobnev and Igor Anton as Tour contenders, no matter how well they did in the Ardennes.

 

[franciep10]

The way I saw it was that Evans pulled Gilbert and Schleck back and Contador jumped fro 10-20metres behind. It wasn´t quite as impressive as others in the forum made out. But your right he needs to improve, assuming Andy was peaking for the classics and Contador was not.

How did Evans pull them back maybe you should watch the video again Contador attacks when Evans is doing his prototypical go on the front and ride as hard as I can while everyone accelerates right by me attack, then after Contador attacks the pace is increased by riders trying and failing to go with AC. I give Evans credit for bridging to Valverde and Gilbert that was impressive.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFiXazQDueQ

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

How did Evans pull them back maybe you should watch the video again Contador attacks when Evans is doing his prototypical go on the front and ride as hard as I can while everyone accelerates right by me attack, then after Contador attacks the pace is increased by riders trying and failing to go with AC. I give Evans credit for bridging to Valverde and Gilbert that was impressive.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFiXazQDueQ

The gap between Schleck/Gilbert and the Evans led group was never particularly large.