Le Tour 2010

[Publicus]

Yes, the Giro is what counts in Italy. However Evans isn't going for Giro per se he said he wants to use is as preparation for the tour but we all know Evans is always at a high level.

When did he say that? Everything I've heard/read he's building for the Giro to go for the overall. His form certainly supports that contention, but it wouldn't be the first time I was behind the curve on something.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

When did he say that? Everything I've heard/read he's building for the Giro to go for the overall. His form certainly supports that contention, but it wouldn't be the first time I was behind the curve on something.

he said that on this website and on biciclismo in interviews recent week(s)

 

[Publicus]

he said that on this website and on biciclismo in interviews recent week(s)

Nothing on his website that says that. Only thing he says (in his diary) is that he wants to be ready for May.

 

[joy118118]

Just see this one

http://www.tuttobiciweb.it/index.php?page=news&cod=28717&tp=n

Zomegnan and then confirmed, "just yesterday we received confirmation: Alberto Contador will host the Tour of Italy 2011.

Does not know it is true or not.

 

[inputjoe]

Vino isn't going for the overall at the Giro. He wants a stage win and maybe to wear the Maglia Rosa, but that's about as far as it goes. He knows that July is what matters the most for Astana.

I doubt if Vino really knows what he wants at the Giro. He didn't seem especially keen about the overall at Trentino but ended up getting it anyway. If at the end of the second week he still feels strong and the overall is in reach he may go for it.

 

[xmoonx]

xmoonx, when did you start watching GTs? Do you watch any outside the TdF? Just wondering because you're entire argument is predicated on the TdF 1999-2005 and the performance of Lance Armstrong. Never before or since has a GC rider needed as much of a team as Armstrong did and it has skewed your thinking - you assume that a) all GTs must be ridden as USDiscatana rode them and b) that all GC contenders have the same characteristics as Armstrong.

But your continued assertion - despite all evidence to the contrary - that Armstrong is the strongest contender on the strongest team - has at least given me a good laugh on a gloomy Monday

My only assertion was that RS has an incredibly seasoned team w 3 GC contenders on a course ideally suited to it.

Frankly i dont recall saying LA was the strongest contender or is that an assumption you assumed i made.

 

[Publicus]

My only assertion was that RS has an incredibly seasoned team w 3 GC contenders on a course ideally suited to it.

Frankly i dont recall saying LA was the strongest contender or is that an assumption you assumed i made.

You think this year's TdF course is IDEALLY suited to Radio Shack's 3 GC candidates? Can you explain how? Just curious, since I think you are the first person on this forum to advance that supposition.

 

[xmoonx]

I don't see how 'everyone' is going to play a waiting game when Leipheimer, Klöden or F. Schleck are attacking. Unless one of them had lost a fair amount of time already, which is not unthinkable.

It's rare to see a GC candidate attack early and 'paralyze' those who try to chase him. And if the one attacking is not a GC candidate, then why chase so hard?

Well, Tour stages are not about the yellow jersey, as a rule. In most of them, the podium status quo is maintained. However, many teams are interested in winning stages and/or other classifications. So it is rare for all teams except the one with the biggest GC favorite to do nothing at all. The moment a 2nd place is endangered, the team currently holding second place will start to chase, for example.

You seem to think that it is in other teams' interest to ride specifically against Astana. That is a misconception; it is in any team's interest to ride for itself. Rabobank only like to see Astana lose if they have something to gain. They're not going to help Radioshack just to make Contador lose. You seem to call that 'racing to win' but it's not the same thing. Racing so Radioshack can win, sure, but there is only one team interested in doing that.

Contador has a good group of men around him, and he won't be wanting much more team support. Radioshack and specifically Armstrong are seriously hampered by the fact that there is no TTT. The single ITT is slightly in Armstrong's favor, who will have to struggle with his former specialization only once.

What I really think is that anyone person or team letting it come down to 3 Mountain Top finishes and a TT is doomed to loose to AC/Astana. Saxo will NOT put time on AC/Astana in the mountains and loose in the TT. RS will loose in the mountains maybe gain a trifle in the TT. Same for most other teams in serious contention. Tactically to avoid racing AC/Astanas race, things will have to be shaken up a bit...

But i respect what your saying and i posted this earlier. It's highly possible that a non-contending team will do its utmost to keep the Yellow for the PR thus making Astanas job simpler.

 

[xmoonx]

You think this year's TdF course is IDEALLY suited to Radio Shack's 3 GC candidates? Can you explain how? Just curious, since I think you are the first person on this forum to advance that supposition.

3 GT trump cards to play and an entourage of savvy mountain goats (Popo, Horner, Chechu, Zubeldia, Machado, Brajkovic) to boot plus good train strength (Steegmans, Rast & Vaitkus).
Looking at this Tour, there are 3 mountain top finishes, 1 TT but more importantly 3 mountainous stages with break written all over them.

Of course a non contender could get an early yellow and try and keep it, which would help Astana out a lot. May even be a good tactic for Astana to allow just that, but idk the break stages are in and around the Mountain Top finishes.
Stage 8-MT
Stage 9-Break
Stage14-MT
Stage15-Break
Stage16-Break
Stage17-MT

I think your going to witness a major "shack attack", either Levi or Klody goes on a break on the non Mountain top finishes. Don't be surprised if Saxo tries that too. Astanas going to be reeling crap in all Tour long. Frankly unless AC gets some help from the other GT'ers (teams), there going to be one tired team.
Taking it to the mountain top finishes and TT is a no win situation for either RS or Saxo and most contenders.

 

[xmoonx]

Furthermore staying close to AC/Astana throughout the race and maybe launching attacks on the Mountain Top finishes against AC wont work. Theres maybe a handful or less in the the peloton who can stay w him. He basically launches his own attacks and puts everyone on damage control anyhow

 

[Boleyn]

3 GT trump cards to play and an entourage of savvy mountain goats (Popo, Horner, Chechu, Zubeldia, Machado, Brajkovic) to boot plus good train strength (Steegmans, Rast & Vaitkus).
Looking at this Tour, there are 3 mountain top finishes, 1 TT but more importantly 3 mountainous stages with break written all over them.

Even with a 12 man team, they won't win the MJ.

 

[Boleyn]

I think your going to witness a major "shack attack", either Levi or Klody goes on a break on the non Mountain top finishes. Don't be surprised if Saxo tries that too. Astanas going to be reeling crap in all Tour long. Frankly unless AC gets some help from the other GT'ers (teams), there going to be one tired team.
Taking it to the mountain top finishes and TT is a no win situation for either RS or Saxo and most contenders.

Neither Leipheimer nor Kloden will be allowed to get away in a break. Look what happened in 2009 when Evans - who was about a month behind on GC - tried to get away in a break. Both Hincapie and Cancellara told him to F*** Off, even though he, Evans, had started the break.

 

[Publicus]

3 GT trump cards to play and an entourage of savvy mountain goats (Popo, Horner, Chechu, Zubeldia, Machado, Brajkovic) to boot plus good train strength (Steegmans, Rast & Vaitkus).
Looking at this Tour, there are 3 mountain top finishes, 1 TT but more importantly 3 mountainous stages with break written all over them.

Of course a non contender could get an early yellow and try and keep it, which would help Astana out a lot. May even be a good tactic for Astana to allow just that, but idk the break stages are in and around the Mountain Top finishes.
Stage 8-MT
Stage 9-Break
Stage14-MT
Stage15-Break
Stage16-Break
Stage17-MT

I think your going to witness a major "shack attack", either Levi or Klody goes on a break on the non Mountain top finishes. Don't be surprised if Saxo tries that too. Astanas going to be reeling crap in all Tour long. Frankly unless AC gets some help from the other GT'ers (teams), there going to be one tired team.
Taking it to the mountain top finishes and TT is a no win situation for either RS or Saxo and most contenders.

Shack attack, huh? 3 GT trump cards, you say? 6 mountain goats? All will have Astana reeling crap in all Tour long.....

Yeah, I've seen this reasoning/logic somewhere before.

 

[kurtinsc]

Honestly... unless Contador bonks the only way I see someone else winning is if there's a coordinated attack early on a tough stage.

If it follows the normal pattern where everyone waits until the last time... who realy thinks they're going to beat Contador consistenly enough to win the race?

Could the other teams do better if they force the selection earlier on tough stages? Maybe... maybe not... but I think they might have a better shot.

I'd love to see several teams get together to winnow the lead group down to 20-30 riders at the base of the Col de la Ramaz on stage 8, the Colombiere climb on stage 9, or the Tourmalet on 16. But I don't see that as being likely... especially the Colombiere. But it would be fun to see a group effort to raise the pace to elite selection level early and keep it up... to see if they can tire Contador out since they can't out-climb him.

 

[bianchigirl]

The only possible chance for shaking things up on GC would be to take Machado, who can climb and TT - oh, but Bruyneels has already said he won't be going.

This will be the old boys together for one last fling, maybe a stage win gifted by Contador (oh, can you imagine that would hurt?) but either a) controlling the race as they did in 99-95 or b) completely changing their tactic and launching attack after attack with riders who frankly don't have the wherewithal (just look at the damp squib that was Kloeden at F-W - AC didn't turn a hair)? Never going to happen. Let's take either scenario:

a) AC sits on - he knows exactly what the fabled RS train are capable of as he rode on it last year. It's far more likely that, once the road goes up RS'll be off the back of the peloton nursing Armstrong.

b) This has been comprehensively debunked - either those old fellahs simply don't have the legs or they'll have peaked too early or they simply won'r be allowed to get away - not by Astana, I doubt they'll be troubled, but by all the other teams jockeying for podium positions, stage wins, other classements.

But moon, I really can't see who else you see taking the MJ from RS? None of their other riders have the experience of being GT winners and age is most certainly against them. And, should they show form that's a little too clever, Bordry will be all over them like a rash.

 

[Publicus]

Honestly... unless Contador bonks the only way I see someone else winning is if there's a coordinated attack early on a tough stage.

If it follows the normal pattern where everyone waits until the last time... who realy thinks they're going to beat Contador consistenly enough to win the race?

Could the other teams do better if they force the selection earlier on tough stages? Maybe... maybe not... but I think they might have a better shot.

I'd love to see several teams get together to winnow the lead group down to 20-30 riders at the base of the Col de la Ramaz on stage 8, the Colombiere climb on stage 9, or the Tourmalet on 16. But I don't see that as being likely... especially the Colombiere. But it would be fun to see a group effort to raise the pace to elite selection level early and keep it up... to see if they can tire Contador out since they can't out-climb him.

Wouldn't that tire them out too? Even more so if AC is just sitting in their slipstream?

 

[afpm90]

Christian PrudHomme doesn't have a problem with Vino riding the Tour.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/3...ms-with-Vinokourov-in-the-Tour-de-France.aspx

 

[bianchigirl]

He never did.

No Tour for Chavanel - he's been virtually invisible this year

 

[luckyboy]

No Tour for Chavanel - he's been virtually invisible this year

He should get back to a French team. He's sucked since getting on whatever QST are doing - 3rd in Paris-Nice 09 aside. Oh, and Roubaix last year was pretty good.

 

[ferryman]

This throws a massive spanner in the works of the Liquigas team. I was under the impression that Basso was gonna work for Pellizotti at the Giro and Pellizotti would work for Basso at the Tour??

I'm not sure where Basso fits in to be honest. It is Pellizotti for the Giro no doubt, with Basso if he falters. Nibali and Kreuzinger will be 1 and 2 for Liquigas at the Tour with Pelli going for the mountains. As I said, I just don't see where Basso fits in, particulary at the Tour.

 

[pmcg76]

Honestly... unless Contador bonks the only way I see someone else winning is if there's a coordinated attack early on a tough stage.

If it follows the normal pattern where everyone waits until the last time... who realy thinks they're going to beat Contador consistenly enough to win the race?

Could the other teams do better if they force the selection earlier on tough stages? Maybe... maybe not... but I think they might have a better shot.

I'd love to see several teams get together to winnow the lead group down to 20-30 riders at the base of the Col de la Ramaz on stage 8, the Colombiere climb on stage 9, or the Tourmalet on 16. But I don't see that as being likely... especially the Colombiere. But it would be fun to see a group effort to raise the pace to elite selection level early and keep it up... to see if they can tire Contador out since they can't out-climb him.

This would require all the teams to somehow get a group consisting of a Schleck, a Liquigas contender(not Pellizotti), one of the RadioShack trio, Valverde (if he is there) Wiggins, Evans, Menchov, Vandevelde, Sastre all into a breakaway without Contador, how likely is that and where would it happen? It would mean all teams riding together to eliminate one rider.

The only time I can remember anything remotely similar happening was when LeMond, Alcala, Breukink, Kelly all got away in a early break in the 91 Tour before the TTT. Indurain won that year with Chiappucci, Bugno on the podium. PDM exited because of the Intralipid affair. Might have been interesting if PDM had remained but still think Indurain would have won.

Otherwise, if any of these riders miss out, they along with Astana will have reason to chase.

 

[awal3207]

The most obvious tactic for me is Saxo\RS\Liquigas forcing a selection on the second last climb of the day to create a platform for attacking an isolated Contador. The oneous (can´t spell this word) will be on Contador to chase and everyone knows that he will have too. In a waiting game he would defintely be the first to crack as he is the one with the most to lose. He is the favourite, defending champion and has openly dedicated his season to the tdf. As stated before it would require teams to work against Contador. For me they have to otherwise no one else can win

In this situation whatever team had the yellow jersey would be irrelevent.

 

[Publicus]

The most obvious tactic for me is Saxo\RS\Liquigas forcing a selection on the second last climb of the day to create a platform for attacking an isolated Contador. The oneous (can´t spell this word) will be on Contador to chase and everyone knows that he will have too. In a waiting game he would defintely be the first to crack as he is the one with the most to lose. He is the favourite, defending champion and has openly dedicated his season to the tdf. As stated before it would require teams to work against Contador. For me they have to otherwise no one else can win

In this situation whatever team had the yellow jersey would be irrelevent.

Sure would be relevant. If Astana isn't trying to chase down the break to protect yellow, they get to sit in the slip stream of whoever does have the yellow jersey and the slip streams of Saxo and Liquigas. Kind of hard to force a selection that somehow leaves the team forcing the selection fresh and AC tired and without teammates.

See for example the stage to Verbier last year. You had Liquigas, Garmin and Saxo Bank driving the pace to shred the field, which whittled the main group down to Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Alberto, Lance Armstrong and Bradley Wiggins. The only ones with anything left in the tank were Andy and Alberto. And one of them had a lot more in the tank than the other.

 

[Beech Mtn]

The oneous (can´t spell this word) will be on Contador to chase and everyone knows that he will have too.

snipped quote.
I hate the grammar/spelling police, but I'll tell you this - the word is spelled onus. Spelled just like it sounds - easy, peasy. Now you'll never misspell it again.

 

[luckyboy]

If RetirementShack tried to put the pressure on AC, there'll be no way that Lance will stay with the group.