Le Tour 2010

[Publicus]

Okay... let's change this. I don't think I'm getting across what I'm trying to ask.


Assume that the top GC rider for each team has the same ability... they're all clones of Lemond or Mercxx or whoever.

But they all have the same relationships they currently do with their teams. There's no worry about splitting Andy and Frank... Andy's just a clone of Contador. Armstrong is now a lot younger and fitter... but he's still the "boss" of the RS team like he is now. Menchov is still his stoic self... just with Contador's acceleration.

Which team would be able to support their Contador clone best.

Perhaps you can just make your argument because I'm not inclined to suspend reality to play along. Because Armstrong is still older and lacking a kick in the mountains. Andy is still too dependent on his brother and cannot TT to save his life. Menchov has a hard time keeping his bike upright and can be dropped in the mountains. AC still wants to have a team built around him and doesn't trust Bruyneel further than he can throw him. And it goes without saying, AC still is the bes overall GC candidate that will line up in July.

So make your argument, but understand that I'm judging your argument based on what is....

 

[kurtinsc]

Perhaps you can just make your argument because I'm not inclined to suspend reality to play along. Because Armstrong is still older and lacking a kick in the mountains. Andy is still too dependent on his brother and cannot TT to save his life. Menchov has a hard time keeping his bike upright and can be dropped in the mountains. AC still wants to have a team built around him and doesn't trust Bruyneel further than he can throw him. And it goes without saying, AC still is the bes overall GC candidate that will line up in July.

So make your argument, but understand that I'm judging your argument based on what is....

I'm asking which team surrounding the GC rider is the best support.

You seem to want to take the GC rider into account.

By that measure... Contador's team will always be best because he's going to win the Tour... even if he was riding with the Jelly Belly Cycling team. I think that's silly... because if say... Cadel Evans gets 3rd it doesn't mean he's got the 3rd best team supporting him, he's just very good on a poor team.

So feel free not to answer... I'll see what other people think.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm asking which team surrounding the GC rider is the best support.

You seem to want to take the GC rider into account.

But each different GC candidate has different needs. Think of it like sprinters. If you're taking Óscar Freire, you can have 8 riders for completely different purposes because Freire can fend for himself in the sprint. If you're taking Greipel, you need to focus at least part of the team for him.

 

[Publicus]

I'm asking which team surrounding the GC rider is the best support.

You seem to want to take the GC rider into account.

By that measure... Contador's team will always be best because he's going to win the Tour... even if he was riding with the Jelly Belly Cycling team. I think that's silly... because if say... Cadel Evans gets 3rd it doesn't mean he's got the 3rd best team supporting him, he's just very good on a poor team.

So feel free not to answer... I'll see what other people think.

Unless I am missing something the GC candidate is part of the team. So how, or why, would you exclude them from evaluating the strength of the team? Next you will tell me that the DS doesn't factor into team strength either.

 

[kurtinsc]

But each different GC candidate has different needs. Think of it like sprinters. If you're taking Óscar Freire, you can have 8 riders for completely different purposes because Freire can fend for himself in the sprint. If you're taking Greipel, you need to focus at least part of the team for him.

Yes... but when it comes down to it, it doesn't matter who's on Radioshack's team by that measure because Lance can't beat Contador with his pick of 8 riders from all of cycling for himself and Contador racing with the British under-18 womens track team.

I was trying to take that out of the equation with the question, by supposing that all the top GC riders were identical.


I agree Contador doesn't need a strong team. I think he'd win on ANY team in the race... even a Radioshack team actively working against him like Astana was doing last year.

But that fact doesn't mean any team he is on automatically becomes strong. Lemond was great in 1989... but NOTHING you can say will make me believe the ADR team he rode on was any good. If you put Lemond on the Super U team Fignon rode for, he'd have won a lot more comfortably... at the very least Fignon's win on stage 18 would never have happened.

 

[kurtinsc]

Unless I am missing something the GC candidate is part of the team. So how, or why, would you exclude them from evaluating the strength of the team? Next you will tell me that the DS doesn't factor into team strength either.

Because I'm asking about the strength of the support for the GC rider, not how good the GC rider is.

If you want to ask which team has the best chance of putting a rider on the top step of the podium... my answer is going to be "whatever team Contador is riding for".

But that's the same thing as asking "who's going to win the race".

We all know Contador is the clear favorite to win the race. I'm trying to get my hands around the idea that people think that his teammates are much better then my view of them.

But so far, the arguments seem to be "Contador is great" and "his team is really behind him".

Lemond was great in 1989... and his team was "really behind him" too... but they still sucked at supporting Lemond... their weakness almost cost him the race on stage 18.

I don't think his support is nearly that bad (though Cadel's support might be), but I do think there are at least 5-7 teams that are more capable then Astana is if their GC rider were at Contador's level.

 

[Publicus]

Yes... but when it comes down to it, it doesn't matter who's on Radioshack's team by that measure because Lance can't beat Contador with his pick of 8 riders from all of cycling for himself and Contador racing with the British under-18 womens track team.

I was trying to take that out of the equation with the question, by supposing that all the top GC riders were identical.


I agree Contador doesn't need a strong team. I think he'd win on ANY team in the race... even a Radioshack team actively working against him like Astana was doing last year.

The way you are talking there is NO value in having a strong team. I don't think anyone has made that argument (certainly not me). I've not ranked Astana as the strongest team and not because I think Andy can beat AC. I think their mix of talent, coupled with the intangibles (they seem to genuinely like and respect each other and they've sacrificed for each other to win), plus DS makes them a formidable team. I could spell out my rationale for ranking them as I have so far, but it's just my opinion. If you have a different approach, why not just present it? It would beat the hell out of pretending that all GC candidates are created equal bit.

 

[Publicus]

Because I'm asking about the strength of the support for the GC rider, not how good the GC rider is.

If you want to ask which team has the best chance of putting a rider on the top step of the podium... my answer is going to be "whatever team Contador is riding for".

But that's the same thing as asking "who's going to win the race".

We all know Contador is the clear favorite to win the race. I'm trying to get my hands around the idea that people think that his teammates are much better then my view of them.

But so far, the arguments seem to be "Contador is great" and "his team is really behind him".

Lemond was great in 1989... and his team was "really behind him" too... but they still sucked at supporting Lemond... their weakness almost cost him the race on stage 18.

I don't think his support is nearly that bad (though Cadel's support might be), but I do think there are at least 5-7 teams that are more capable then Astana is if their GC rider were at Contador's level.

List your 5-7 and spell out why you think they are stronger than Astana. We can start the discussion from there.

 

[bianchigirl]

Having the strongest team by no means assures you of the GC - in fact this was never really an issue before the 00s and advances in team 'preparation', as personified by USDiscatana. Lemond's 1989 win is, in fact, the absolute proof that you don't need a 'strong' team if you're good enough, you only need your own abilities as a GC rider - had the parcours been different then Fignon would have taken the win, but hardly because of being towed up hill and down dale by his team but because of his super combative, aggressive riding.

 

[thehog]

For 2nd strongest team you need 2 riders in the heads of state group and I'm not sure vino is up to the task. Astana is definitely strong, just not 2nd. It probably won't be important as the attack that will need to be followed is likely Contador's and if not I suspect he can jump onto the wheel. However if does have an off day and appears mortal, the 2nd strongest team would still have one teammate climbing in the top 10 to help him over the line. If Vino is climbing that well, they could well be 2nd strongest. As for radioshack given their performance last year I don't think they'll have trouble coming together and they dumped the most disruptive part, unfortunately that was also the winning part. There is time before July for them to ride together, notably california, dauphine, and suisse. They do seem to lack the flatland powerhouses but they'll be fine. Now if only they can race positively instead of following wheels they might even look strong. For me the Tour will gain loads if radioshack and liquigas ride to win not only get on the podium.

I think after today we can close this thread. theHog prevails!

 

[kurtinsc]

List your 5-7 and spell out why you think they are stronger than Astana. We can start the discussion from there.

I'm not sure which teams are bringing what. But when I look at "elite" climbers (guys who might survive the mountains when the main group gets cut down to 20 or so riders), here's what I see.

Astana: Leader - Contador. Vino (I would have said "perhaps Vino" before today.
Saxo: Leader - Andy. Frank. Perhaps Sorensen, Larson and Fuglsang.
Liquigas: Leader - Nibali (I guess). Pelizotti. Basso. Kreuziger.
Caisse: Leader - Valverde (I guess... it's not like he has stopped racing yet). Soler. Bruseghin. LuLu. Perhaps Uran or Cobo.
Radioshack: Leader - Armstrong. Leipheimer. Kloden. Perhaps Horner or Brajkovic.
Euskatel: Leader - Sanchez. Perhaps Anton. Intxausti maybe?
Garmin: Leader - Vandevelde. Perhaps Danielson
Sky: Leader - Wiggins. Perhaps Lovkvist.
Cervelo: Leader - Sastre.
BMC: Leader - Evans.
Lotto: Leader - Van den Broeck.
AG2R: Leader - Valjavek... if he rides. Perhaps Efimkin.
Milram: Leader - Gerdaman... maybe can keep in the main group.
Colombia: Perhaps Rogers as the GC leader. Maybe Martin as well, but he'd need some development.
FDJ - Le Mevel... maybe?
Katusha - None really... maybe Karpets as the GC guy?
Footon - None really. Maybe they'll sign the chicken.
Quickstep - None.
Lampre - None.
BBox - None.
Cofidis - None.


While I think contador has "enough", I just don't see that team as strong as Liquigas, Caisse, Saxo or Radioshack. I see them in a similar spot to Euskatel, Sky and Garmin. If you put a gun to my head I'd put them ahead of those three... but not incredibly far ahead. Again... basing this on the support available for the leader... not including the strength of the leader himself.

 

[flicker]

The Schlects are going to go down like a damp fuse. Out of the equation. I think Fabi will be a runner.
Contador is of course the favorite.
Evans will put in a good fight.
Armstrong is a tough call, he's staying hidden. He may indeed be a threat - he's psychotic, remember that.
That's what I see from present.

Andy is another Poulidor.

 

[luckyboy]

Andy is another Poulidor.

Or a less likeable Jan

Don't see how Piti won't be banned by the time July comes around..

 

[kurtinsc]

Or a less likeable Jan

Don't see how Piti won't be banned by the time July comes around..

I thought he was banned a month ago... but he kept riding an finishing high in races.

At this point I'm not going to predict anything with him.

 

[Publicus]

While I think contador has "enough", I just don't see that team as strong as Liquigas, Caisse, Saxo or Radioshack. I see them in a similar spot to Euskatel, Sky and Garmin. If you put a gun to my head I'd put them ahead of those three... but not incredibly far ahead. Again... basing this on the support available for the leader... not including the strength of the leader himself.

So you think Liquigas, Caisse, Saxo and Radio Shack are stronger teams than Astana? Is this based on paper assumptions or on the road results? We've just wrapped up the first part of the Spring, so we now have some sense of the quality of riders each team possess. And your assessment is that Astana is, at best, the fifth strongest team coming into July?

 

[luckyboy]

I thought he was banned a month ago... but he kept riding an finishing high in races.

At this point I'm not going to predict anything with him.

Yeah, we just have to wait to see why RFEC didn't bring the case against him first. I'll bet he won't be at the Tour.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm not sure which teams are bringing what. But when I look at "elite" climbers (guys who might survive the mountains when the main group gets cut down to 20 or so riders), here's what I see.

Astana: Leader - Contador. Vino (I would have said "perhaps Vino" before today.

de la Fuente's had the Tour KOM twice and the Vuelta KOM at various points... Tiralongo was 7th in the Vuelta last year... Iglinskiy was there in the Giro 2008 when the main group was cut down to 20 or so...

Saxo: Leader - Andy. Frank. Perhaps Sorensen, Larson and Fuglsang.

Probably not Larsson, but they'll have the likes of Cancellara and Voigt killing themselves on the front.

Liquigas: Leader - Nibali (I guess). Pelizotti. Basso. Kreuziger.

If any team has domestiques that will be there when the bunch gets cut down it's Liqui. Szmyd will halve the number of riders in the main group, and Zaugg's no slouch either.

Caisse: Leader - Valverde (I guess... it's not like he has stopped racing yet). Soler. Bruseghin. LuLu. Perhaps Uran or Cobo.

And Arroyo, 10th in the Giro twice. Kiryienka is no slouch in the mountains either.

Radioshack: Leader - Armstrong. Leipheimer. Kloden. Perhaps Horner or Brajkovic.

and possibly Machado?

Euskatel: Leader - Sanchez. Perhaps Anton. Intxausti maybe?

Certainly at first Antón and Intxausti will be around. Egoi Martínez?

Garmin: Leader - Vandevelde. Perhaps Danielson
Sky: Leader - Wiggins. Perhaps Lovkvist.
Cervelo: Leader - Sastre.

No Tondo? He is good at getting up there in week-long Tours, and with no GC ambitions of his own could be there. Florencio's no slouch either.

BMC: Leader - Evans.
Lotto: Leader - Van den Broeck.

Moreno?

AG2R: Leader - Valjavek... if he rides. Perhaps Efimkin.
Milram: Leader - Gerdaman... maybe can keep in the main group.
Colombia: Perhaps Rogers as the GC leader. Maybe Martin as well, but he'd need some development.
FDJ - Le Mevel... maybe?

Le Mevel and Casar will place fairly well but more to do with knowing which breaks to get into and defending any high placings they get.

Katusha - None really... maybe Karpets as the GC guy?

You don't think Joaquím Rodríguez can be in the top 20?! The guy who has two GT top 10s solely as a superdomestique? Kirchen's top 10ed in the Tour twice too, so would hardly be a surprise to be up there if he had form.

Footon - None really. Maybe they'll sign the chicken.
Quickstep - None.
Lampre - None.
BBox - None.
Cofidis - None.

 

[Moondance]

I'm not sure which teams are bringing what. But when I look at "elite" climbers (guys who might survive the mountains when the main group gets cut down to 20 or so riders), here's what I see.

Astana: Leader - Contador. Vino (I would have said "perhaps Vino" before today.
Saxo: Leader - Andy. Frank. Perhaps Sorensen, Larson and Fuglsang.
Liquigas: Leader - Nibali (I guess). Pelizotti. Basso. Kreuziger.
Caisse: Leader - Valverde (I guess... it's not like he has stopped racing yet). Soler. Bruseghin. LuLu. Perhaps Uran or Cobo.
Radioshack: Leader - Armstrong. Leipheimer. Kloden. Perhaps Horner or Brajkovic.
Euskatel: Leader - Sanchez. Perhaps Anton. Intxausti maybe?
Garmin: Leader - Vandevelde. Perhaps Danielson
Sky: Leader - Wiggins. Perhaps Lovkvist.
Cervelo: Leader - Sastre.
BMC: Leader - Evans.
Lotto: Leader - Van den Broeck.
AG2R: Leader - Valjavek... if he rides. Perhaps Efimkin.
Milram: Leader - Gerdaman... maybe can keep in the main group.
Colombia: Perhaps Rogers as the GC leader. Maybe Martin as well, but he'd need some development.
FDJ - Le Mevel... maybe?
Katusha - None really... maybe Karpets as the GC guy?
Footon - None really. Maybe they'll sign the chicken.
Quickstep - None.
Lampre - None.
BBox - None.
Cofidis - None.


While I think contador has "enough", I just don't see that team as strong as Liquigas, Caisse, Saxo or Radioshack. I see them in a similar spot to Euskatel, Sky and Garmin. If you put a gun to my head I'd put them ahead of those three... but not incredibly far ahead. Again... basing this on the support available for the leader... not including the strength of the leader himself.

Rabobank dont even deserve a mention?

I can't blame you, they've had an incredibly shitty April. But they still have Menchov and Gesink (provided they stay on their bikes), who both did good things at the two non-Tour GTs last year... Garate, Boom and Martens to support... That's pretty strong still.... On paper at least

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's a particular disease on this forum to forget Rabobank.

 

[luckyboy]

Menchov to podium and Gesink in the top 10!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nah, Gesink to be in the top 5 and then to fall in the 18th stage and drop to 17th.
Menchov to be up there and looking strong on the podium, until the classical Menchov-pokerface blow up in the final mountain stage, dropping to 8th place

 

[Bala Verde]

It's a particular disease on this forum to forget Rabobank.

just like tarmacttraction is a particular rabobank disease

 

[luckyboy]

Menchov to be up there and looking strong on the podium, until the classical Menchov-pokerface blow up in the final mountain stage, dropping to 8th place

Maybe he'll crash in the final TT or fall over while attacking up a mountain

 

[awal3207]

I think Alberto is in trouble of being isolated big time this year. Last year he had Armstrong and Kloden who while not riding for him per say were still interested in podium finishes and thus the ´team´ was somewhat supportive of him. This year given his clear favouritism I can not see him getting any help from other teams. As previously elaborated on, Liquigas, Radioshack, Rabo, Caisse, Saxo... have at least 2 very strong GC - top 5 contenders. Alberto may well be forced too chase down all of them.

Those who keep dropping KOM jerseys for a few days and Vuelta top 10´s in GC as evidence for Astana´s strength are cracking jokes. This tear TDF is a super strong field. For me I see Alberto as being in a similar postion to Cadel has been for the last few years. I still think it will be hard to beat Alberto but this year he is definately more vulnerable than he will be ever be again, particularly if the other GC´s contenders force there hands early and hard.

 

[kurtinsc]

de la Fuente's had the Tour KOM twice and the Vuelta KOM at various points... Tiralongo was 7th in the Vuelta last year... Iglinskiy was there in the Giro 2008 when the main group was cut down to 20 or so...

Probably not Larsson, but they'll have the likes of Cancellara and Voigt killing themselves on the front.
If any team has domestiques that will be there when the bunch gets cut down it's Liqui. Szmyd will halve the number of riders in the main group, and Zaugg's no slouch either.
And Arroyo, 10th in the Giro twice. Kiryienka is no slouch in the mountains either.
and possibly Machado?
Certainly at first Antón and Intxausti will be around. Egoi Martínez?
No Tondo? He is good at getting up there in week-long Tours, and with no GC ambitions of his own could be there. Florencio's no slouch either.
Moreno?
Le Mevel and Casar will place fairly well but more to do with knowing which breaks to get into and defending any high placings they get.
You don't think Joaquím Rodríguez can be in the top 20?! The guy who has two GT top 10s solely as a superdomestique? Kirchen's top 10ed in the Tour twice too, so would hardly be a surprise to be up there if he had form.

Okay... a lot of stuff. I was trying to limit guys listed to those who will still be there when it goes down to 20-30 guys left. I know I left off guys like Arroyo, Egoi Martinez, de la Fuente and others... but I don't think they're in that group so much... they'll be there a bit at the beginning but not as it goes on a bit... similar to Popovych or Zubeldia for Radio Shack.

Now you did catch me on some. Rodriguez for Katusha was a complete brain fart on my part. Arroyo too to a lesser extent.

Tiralongo is one I went back and forth on. I won't argue if you want to put him in the same sort of category as Anton due to his performance in the Vuelta. I just hadn't seen a whole lot like that beforehand.

I guess it depends on where you want to draw the line... I can see with those last 3 I mentioned where I may have drawn the line at one place then put them on the wrong side of it though.