Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 km

[RattaKuningas]

I don't think that we will see much GC action tomorrow from any of the top GC names besides Froome who might try to repeat his Giro performance. He tried one late attack in stage 9 also, which was shut down by Quintana if I remember correctly, but this shows that he is eager to do something.
I think that Quintana himself will wait for Alpe D'Huez stage and not try any attacks tomorrow because attacking every mountain stage is not an option (it will cause too much fatigue). I can see him going long range or trying further out only in week 3 (stage 17 for example).

 

[Lequack]

Adam to repeat Simon's performance?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah they messed up the order a bit. I think with this as first of 3 alpine stages not much is going to happen, especially because the finish is downhill.
Everyone will want to see how their legs are and save some power for the other stages.
Maybe Nibali has a go in the downhill or near the top.. He seems a bit pissed after TTT and not much support on cobbles, he might want to release some anger here

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Yeah they messed up the order a bit. I think with this as first of 3 alpine stages not much is going to happen, especially because the finish is downhill.
Everyone will want to see how their legs are and save some power for the other stages.
Maybe Nibali has a go in the downhill or near the top.. He seems a bit pissed after TTT and not much support on cobbles, he might want to release some anger here

Just talked to my inside man in BM, Nibali spent all day locked up in his room, strange noises and voodoo chants were heard.

 

[vedrafjord]

Ahem:

“This is where it gets difficult, as we hit the first mountain stage,” Wiggins said. “If Geraint stays where he is and takes the yellow jersey they’ve got a real problem on their hands.

“Both riders have got this joint leadership role, but that’s dangerous. But the quality they have in that team, they could end up first or second.”

Wiggins continued, describing the Team Sky principal, Dave Brailsford, as “divisive” and “self-serving.” He said: “Does Dave B come in and do his usual and be quite divisive and get in each other’s ear and kind of keep them both motivated for the same goal and there be a natural selection?

“Dave will be telling them they can both win it, as a way of motivating them, as a way of playing these cards deep in to the race. He’s quite self-serving. For him it’s about the team winning, it’s not about the individuals or the characters. He will always be in those riders’ ears constantly, and he has been, up till now as you can see.”

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/jul/16/bradley-wiggins-stirs-pot-warning-danger-rift-team-sky

 

[classicomano]

Gaudu ftw.

 

[Escarabajo]

Raise your hand if you saw 2009 stage to Grand Bornand?
Even if they try to keep a small group together they can't. It is difficult to avoid having splits on those steep ramps. It might all come back together on the descend if the gaps are small but is less likely. IMHO.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Re:

The cobbled stage results showed that Movistar's move to sacrifice rouleurs and Time Trialists in favor of climbers was the winning one.
Half way up the final climbs of this second week I expect Movi to have 5 men and Sky 4.
AND Soler+Amador+Valverde >> Poels + Bernal

If Kwia is in Tour '17 shape and Moscon in Vuelta '17 shape then they will be climbing better than Soler and Amador imo. Plus Castroviejo said before this Tour that all he's been working on is his climbing so he will do most of the work for the first part of the climbs.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

Vuillermoz is out? Another man down for Bardet

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I don't think that we will see much GC action tomorrow from any of the top GC names besides Froome who might try to repeat his Giro performance. He tried one late attack in stage 9 also, which was shut down by Quintana if I remember correctly, but this shows that he is eager to do something.
I think that Quintana himself will wait for Alpe D'Huez stage and not try any attacks tomorrow because attacking every mountain stage is not an option (it will cause too much fatigue). I can see him going long range or trying further out only in week 3 (stage 17 for example).

if I'm in Quintana's place I would attack tomorrow, and I would attack hard on Colombiere, right from the beginning. He needs time, and he needs to test Froome. Soler and Amador could set up things on penultimate climb and descent and then BAM, right from the bottom! Nairo in good form can rip this field apart, and I think he's in good form.
Landa should be given a free ride, due to his crash, and only if he's feeling very good, to try to attack, but only after Nairo, if they catch him.
And Valverde, he should stay calm, following Sky duo and Nibali. He should move right before the top, if everything is together, to try to make the difference on descent, or to thin the group and win the sprint.

That's what I would do...

 

[Simurgh]

I don’t expect much from this stage. A breakaway will take it, and the favorites will look at each other. Would be surprised if Movistar and especially Quintana attacks tomorrow, because he can lose that little advantage he can get, in the descent towards the finish. I think, like some others, that we will have to wait for the Alpe d’Huez to see an attacking Nairo (and Movistar in general).

 

[Salvarani]

Maybe tomorrow they will just see how everyone is doing. If someone is tired it will definitely show on the last climbs.

I think on Wednesday is the day to really see what they can do tho and build on that for Thursday, for Movistar.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

This is a perfect stage for an ambush. A really hard climb mid-stage followed by plenty of rolling terrain. And nobody knows how his legs will respond after a rest day.

Hopefully a strong break forms so the stage is not being raced too lazy. There's a potential for some great racing in there, hopefully there will be teams which will try to use that.

 

[hfer07]

SKY to set up their "460 watts average cool cruise pace" to drop the ever loving soul of everyone, so then Froome can freely go off in the last 3k of the Colombiare- then down with his unmistakable marginal gaining top tube seated pedaling style, and last cruise alone to the finish line with a cool minute advantage on his nearest rivals

and life will go on.......

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Froome doesn't get beaten though. He only isn't strong enough or carrying too much fatigue. Then your tactics don't matter, because we've seen hi in that situation get dropped by steady hard riding and by constant attacking. It is naive to think Froome is weak against one form of riding or another.

The offensive tactic is not the variable that matters tomorrow. The only determinant is how strong Froome is.

 

[Koronin]

Movistar's update on Landa is that he had a good night's sleep and his wounds are superficial. He is hoping with one more good night's sleep he'll be good for tomorrow.
Landa also said back during the winter than Sky wants to ride at a set pace and does have issues with lots of change of pace riding, which is actually what Landa says he prefers and is much better at (part of why he couldn't stay at Sky). He said he believes that if you do a lot of change of pace riding you can break the Sky train. (Don't know if he's right or not, but he did say that).
As for Movistar tomorrow, with Landa's injuries I can't see him attacking. I doubt Quintana attacks tomorrows. My guess is if anyone does it might be Valverde but only if Nibali does and only on the descent where together the two could put some time into the others. I don't see much happening, and I agree that it is likely a break takes the stage.

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

It's unsure if Egan starts tomorrow.

https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/tour-de-france/bernal-uninjured-despite-crashing-into-car_472403

Team Sky officials confirmed Monday the 21-year-old Colombian sensation is not injured and will start Tuesday’s stage 10.

On Sunday, a fan captured video of the Tour de France rookie smacking into the back of a BMC Racing vehicle that stopped suddenly in the mayhem of the stage as riders were chasing back on.

Sky posted photos too of him out on a spin today with the team so seems ok.

 

[Martinstranger]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

Thats exactly the problem - the riders have been satisfied by becoming 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 or even 10. They have not been willing to really dig in and go for the win.
They keep waiting, waiting and waiting because tomorrow might be better. I hope they have learned their lesson and tomorrow will be willing to test Sky Doms on Des Glieres - it might fail, but if they don't do anything, Froome will be strong again in the third week and take everything.
Some day they have to learn and this year both Quintana and Bardets teams look strong - maybe the can form an alliance with Nibali and Fuglsang.

The teams should bring out doms in the break at the first mountain - a few from Movistar, AG2R, Astana and Bahrain could be an interesting test of Sky and how much chase they will do.
I'll probably be disappointed again tomorrow but believe this is one of the best options to do some real damage to Sky or die triyng!

 

[filipepc]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

Thats exactly the problem - the riders have been satisfied by becoming 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 or even 10. They have not been willing to really dig in and go for the win.
They keep waiting, waiting and waiting because tomorrow might be better. I hope they have learned their lesson and tomorrow will be willing to test Sky Doms on Des Glieres - it might fail, but if they don't do anything, Froome will be strong again in the third week and take everything.
Some day they have to learn and this year both Quintana and Bardets teams look strong - maybe the can form an alliance with Nibali and Fuglsang.

The teams should bring out doms in the break at the first mountain - a few from Movistar, AG2R, Astana and Bahrain could be an interesting test of Sky and how much chase they will do.
I'll probably be disappointed again tomorrow but believe this is one of the best options to do some real damage to Sky or die triyng!

That is my point, in the last 5 years besides 2014 when Froome crashed is always the same... Teams wait anda wait and prefer to defend a 4th place or a 5 th place then try to win. Come on guys, if you don´t try youll never know, tomorrow last climbs suit better climbers because it´s very steep, between 9 and 12% gradient. If you wait anda don´t do nothing know, in the 3 week Froome is going to improve and will take it like always, because he is very strong and has the best team/plan of riding. Teams has to get sky train in pieces, and then try... It´s always the some, let´s wait and wait, cycling needs courage, if there is anyone that really wants to win, instead of doing a top 10... And a Think Movistar MUST sacrifice Valverde to do it... He will not win the tour, so to me is a bad tactic to leave him once more do his own race to get a top ten.

 

[Leinster]

Of the top 20 going into this stage, only GvA and Gilbert aren’t realistic top 10 finishers or better. And that still doesn’t include Uran, Quintana and Martin, who will all expect to move up, currently sitting in 21st, 22nd and 24th. (Sagan is 23rd).

There are a lot of good riders still in contention in this Tour. I would expect to see some of them making moves tomorrow. Sky can only eliminate so many of them with a fast pace on the Glieres, this isn’t the Giro field.

 

[del1962]

Re:

Of the top 20 going into this stage, only GvA and Gilbert aren’t realistic top 10 finishers or better. And that still doesn’t include Uran, Quintana and Martin, who will all expect to move up, currently sitting in 21st, 22nd and 24th. (Sagan is 23rd).

There are a lot of good riders still in contention in this Tour. I would expect to see some of them making moves tomorrow. Sky can only eliminate so many of them with a fast pace on the Glieres, this isn’t the Giro field.

Would add Søren Kragh Andersen as an unrealistic top ten agre with the rest

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

Thats exactly the problem - the riders have been satisfied by becoming 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 or even 10. They have not been willing to really dig in and go for the win.
They keep waiting, waiting and waiting because tomorrow might be better. I hope they have learned their lesson and tomorrow will be willing to test Sky Doms on Des Glieres - it might fail, but if they don't do anything, Froome will be strong again in the third week and take everything.
Some day they have to learn and this year both Quintana and Bardets teams look strong - maybe the can form an alliance with Nibali and Fuglsang.

The teams should bring out doms in the break at the first mountain - a few from Movistar, AG2R, Astana and Bahrain could be an interesting test of Sky and how much chase they will do.
I'll probably be disappointed again tomorrow but believe this is one of the best options to do some real damage to Sky or die triyng!

I think Movistar tried something like that a few years ago, the problem is when your twenty plus minutes down then a team like Sky is happy to give you eight plus minutes and render you useless to your GC leader.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

Thats exactly the problem - the riders have been satisfied by becoming 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 or even 10. They have not been willing to really dig in and go for the win.
They keep waiting, waiting and waiting because tomorrow might be better. I hope they have learned their lesson and tomorrow will be willing to test Sky Doms on Des Glieres - it might fail, but if they don't do anything, Froome will be strong again in the third week and take everything.
Some day they have to learn and this year both Quintana and Bardets teams look strong - maybe the can form an alliance with Nibali and Fuglsang.

The teams should bring out doms in the break at the first mountain - a few from Movistar, AG2R, Astana and Bahrain could be an interesting test of Sky and how much chase they will do.
I'll probably be disappointed again tomorrow but believe this is one of the best options to do some real damage to Sky or die triyng!

I think Movistar tried something like that a few years ago, the problem is when your twenty plus minutes down then a team like Sky is happy to give you eight plus minutes and render you useless to your GC leader.[/quote]


If you get 3-5 teams sending between 1 and 3 teammates up the road for their GC guys then if Sky tries to back, then those riders back off and let the other breakaway companions go up the road and ride at a pace to parallel what Sky is doing. IF you get a group of maybe 10ish riders willing to work together this way you could do that and hold maybe around a 3-4 minute gap.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Of the top 20 going into this stage, only GvA and Gilbert aren’t realistic top 10 finishers or better. And that still doesn’t include Uran, Quintana and Martin, who will all expect to move up, currently sitting in 21st, 22nd and 24th. (Sagan is 23rd).

There are a lot of good riders still in contention in this Tour. I would expect to see some of them making moves tomorrow. Sky can only eliminate so many of them with a fast pace on the Glieres, this isn’t the Giro field.

Would add Søren Kragh Andersen as an unrealistic top ten agre with the rest

Let’s say a top 10 for him would be aspirational rather than realistic? His stage win in Suisse wasn’t as tough as what he’ll face over the next 2 weeks, but it wasn’t flat. And he’s been in great form this Tour, towing Dumoulin to the line up Mur de Bretagne. Until yesterday everyone presumed Bernal had the white jersey locked down, but if Andersen can climb even a little bit...

 

[Summoned]

Re:

Movistar's update on Landa is that he had a good night's sleep and his wounds are superficial. He is hoping with one more good night's sleep he'll be good for tomorrow.
Landa also said back during the winter than Sky wants to ride at a set pace and does have issues with lots of change of pace riding, which is actually what Landa says he prefers and is much better at (part of why he couldn't stay at Sky). He said he believes that if you do a lot of change of pace riding you can break the Sky train. (Don't know if he's right or not, but he did say that).
As for Movistar tomorrow, with Landa's injuries I can't see him attacking. I doubt Quintana attacks tomorrows. My guess is if anyone does it might be Valverde but only if Nibali does and only on the descent where together the two could put some time into the others. I don't see much happening, and I agree that it is likely a break takes the stage.

ThIs seems like the most realistic scenario to me. I think Nibali has to at least press the pace on the descent to Le Grand-Bornand, even if it is not an outright attack. Valverde going with him makes complete sense, as both are excellent descenders, and on a stage where little difference between contenders seems likely, whatever difference is available to make pretty much has to be made. Plus, Nibali has already benefited from a rival not being being able to handle him pushing on a descent, so there may be that inventive as well.