Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 km

[sir fly]

Sharp tempo on a profile like this doesn't leave much room for doubt. The rest day is X in equation.

 

[thehog]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

One thing for sure is Thomas will be in yellow by day’s end. Unless he crashes out of course which I would wish upon no rider.

 

[Escarabajo]

People are too optimistic on Thomas. I wasn't expecting it.

 

[Savant12]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

The first mountain stage, post-rest day. Can we expect the Sky train to produce Mag-Lev powers to see who they can shake from the GC tree?

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Would be pretty surprised if G isn't in Yellow too. With the 2 other big days coming, I'm now expecting not much action. Like always, hope to be wrong!

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

People are too optimistic on Thomas. I wasn't expecting it.

I'd be surprised to see him staying good for three weeks but if he is close before the TT he is still a good chance for a podium as he is a better TT rider than many of his rivals.

 

[gregrowlerson]

As others have mentioned, even with only tempo climbing, the final two climbs are two difficult to not see some of those 15-20 GC contenders lose their chance of a Paris podium. Even still, someone like Kwiatkowski could win the stage (I forsee 4-5 riders together at the top of the Columbierre, but another 5 might regain contact in the run in to the finish).

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

The climbs are steep but not long so I'll go with a break near the top of the last climb with Roglic plus a few more to race the descent to the finish.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

The climbs are steep but not long so I'll go with a break near the top of the last climb with Roglic plus a few more to race the descent to the finish.

Maybe I have misunderstood your post but there is no way Roglic is allowed to go in a break. With his time trialing ability he is a GC threat until he cracks in the mountains (which could be some days away, if it happens at all).

The more I think about it, the more I think the break takes this. Caruso (9 minutes down) the one for me.

If it's a GC day then I think Mollema will exceed expectations and could sneak away for the win.

 

[Laplaz]

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

The climbs are steep but not long so I'll go with a break near the top of the last climb with Roglic plus a few more to race the descent to the finish.

Maybe I have misunderstood your post but there is no way Roglic is allowed to go in a break. With his time trialing ability he is a GC threat until he cracks in the mountains (which could be some days away, if it happens at all).

The more I think about it, the more I think the break takes this. Caruso (9 minutes down) the one for me.

If it's a GC day then I think Mollema will exceed expectations and could sneak away for the win.

I meant a small group of GC guys will attack near the top of the final climb. I think Roglic might well be in it. How Tommy D fares will be interesting as he can n't wheelsuck to the ITT now.

 

[dacooley]

The thought that 20-30'', earned by his sweat and blood, can easily melt on the descent, will hold back Quintana really badly. I'd rather hope for 2nd tier contenders attacking. jakob, roglic, yates, probably mollema should try to speculate on their status of dark horses. thus far, they might be allowed to ride away relatively easily.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Ag2r and Bahrain as well.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

The thought that 20-30'', earned by his sweat and blood, can easily melt on the descent, will hold back Quintana really badly. I'd rather hope for 2nd tier contenders attacking. jakob, roglic, yates, probably mollema should try to speculate on their status of dark horses. thus far, they might be allowed to ride away relatively easily.

Well, yes, but the hope there would surely be that a Quintana, a Nibali, or whoever else of the serious contenders can bridge across to that dark horse or 2, and that they can then work together. Then suddenly you've got multiple big engines powering away from the rest, and the mix between the front group and the 2nd and 3rd groups of who is and isn't working together, and who has someone just sitting on, and who's effectively towing somebody else's domestique back up to them are all factors that come into play.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Movi won't, Sky probably, depends on the composition of the break.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Movi won't, Sky probably, depends on the composition of the break.

It'll be interesting to see to be fair. Sky might have a bit of dilemma for this stage as they probably want Kwia holding on to the end to bridge any possible attacks in the final descent. Which would mean they can't make him work too much in the train. The stage is too hard for Rowe, Castro and Moscon to do all train work and Bernal might be still in the recovery mode if starting at all. And I don't think they want Poels to work too much this early. It could well be Sky is not going to control too much today epecially in the first climbs of the day.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: Re:

Martinstranger"]

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

Thats exactly the problem - the riders have been satisfied by becoming 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 or even 10. They have not been willing to really dig in and go for the win.
They keep waiting, waiting and waiting because tomorrow might be better. I hope they have learned their lesson and tomorrow will be willing to test Sky Doms on Des Glieres - it might fail, but if they don't do anything, Froome will be strong again in the third week and take everything.
Some day they have to learn and this year both Quintana and Bardets teams look strong - maybe the can form an alliance with Nibali and Fuglsang.

The teams should bring out doms in the break at the first mountain - a few from Movistar, AG2R, Astana and Bahrain could be an interesting test of Sky and how much chase they will do.
I'll probably be disappointed again tomorrow but believe this is one of the best options to do some real damage to Sky or die triyng![/quote]


That is my point, in the last 5 years besides 2014 when Froome crashed is always the same... Teams wait anda wait and prefer to defend a 4th place or a 5 th place then try to win. Come on guys, if you don´t try youll never know, tomorrow last climbs suit better climbers because it´s very steep, between 9 and 12% gradient. If you wait anda don´t do nothing know, in the 3 week Froome is going to improve and will take it like always, because he is very strong and has the best team/plan of riding. Teams has to get sky train in pieces, and then try... It´s always the some, let´s wait and wait, cycling needs courage, if there is anyone that really wants to win, instead of doing a top 10... And a Think Movistar MUST sacrifice Valverde to do it... He will not win the tour, so to me is a bad tactic to leave him once more do his own race to get a top ten.[/quote]

I agree, good post.

 

[klintE]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

There is more KOM points in the first half of the stage
w/like to see Rolland, de Gendt, Barguil and Fraile in break

 

[yaco]

Stage 11 is one for the break. Landa is very much a temp climber.

 

[Jagartrott]

I haven't seen much information on the descent. Is it technical enough to ride away, or does the bigger group always have the advantage?

 

[del1962]

Group of around 15 at bottom of climb, late attacker possibly Dan Martin or Rigo Uran who because a bit behind are not chased down and then win the stage by a handful of seconds

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

One thing we shouldn't forget is that on a first mountain stage there is a chance the guys who rode the giro completely crack. And if you see Dumo or especially Froome struggle on the Romme the rest of the stage has to be great. I'm not thinking this is likely but just saying there is a possibility

 

[The Hegelian]

I don't buy the argument that it's conservative tactics that have failed to break the Sky train (in what - 6 tours now?). I think the issue is that everyone is basically on the limit holding on. It's not 'when should I attack?' or even 'can I attack.' It's more like 'I'm trying really hard not to get dropped.'

The very best hold on, and maybe spend whatever tiny little biscuit they have left at 350metres to go.

If this changes somehow (please Movistar!), excellent. But I have long given up hope.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

I haven't seen much information on the descent. Is it technical enough to ride away, or does the bigger group always have the advantage?

No, it's narrow and quite technical, far from being wide and straightforward. that's clearly a terrain where nibs or bardet might take several tens of seconds.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

The thought that 20-30'', earned by his sweat and blood, can easily melt on the descent, will hold back Quintana really badly. I'd rather hope for 2nd tier contenders attacking. jakob, roglic, yates, probably mollema should try to speculate on their status of dark horses. thus far, they might be allowed to ride away relatively easily.

dont expect anything from El Bauke as he hurt his back on the cobbled stages. One of the most likely to bleed time.